5 Simple Tips To Make Money With Stocks - MTN Rewind

Published Nov 9, 2023, 10:00 AM

Today’s podcast is a replay of a popular show we did a few months back. So if you didn’t hear it the first time, or want to hear it again, now’s your chance. Thanks for listening to Money Talks News…the podcast!

If you're an avid investor…or even if you're not…at one time or another you've probably considered investing in individual stocks. I've been doing it for 40 years, and over that time have made well over a million dollars investing in the stocks of individual companies.

But stock picking isn't for everyone, and it comes with risks. Even the best stock pickers periodically lose money. The trick is to learn a few rules that will increase your odds.

And that's what we're going to talk about today.

Stacy Johnson and financial journalist Miranda Marquit are joined by producer and novice investor Aaron Freeman. This week's guest is a friend of the show, Kevin Matthews, a former investment advisor and the author of Starting Point: How To Create Wealth That Lasts.

Remember, even though we sometimes talk about specific investments on this show, don't take them as recommendations because they're not. Before investing in anything, do your own research, and make your own decisions.

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One of the best ways to build wealth is through stock investing. There are many different ways to invest in stocks, and we can help you figure out how to make the most of your investing dollars. Here are some resources from Money Talks News to help you learn about stock investing, including ideas for where to put your money:

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Stock investing isn't the only way to make money as an investor. We've got a lot of great articles about other ways to invest—and about investing in general. Get more bang for your buck after learning about the resources.

Meet this week's guest, Kevin Matthews, II

Kevin L. Matthews II is a Plutus Award winner and number one bestselling author. He has helped hundreds of individuals plan for their retirement in addition to managing more than $140 million in assets during his advisory career. By 2017, he was named one of the Top 100 Most Influential Financial Advisors by Investopedia.

Kevin launched BuildingBread in 2010 to inspire millennials to set, simplify and achieve any financial goal. Kevin regularly speaks to young adults across the country and has been featured in several media publications and productions including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, Forbes, Black Enterprise, CNBC, and many others.

Kevin holds a bachelor's degree in Economics from Hampton University, a certificate in financial planning from Northwestern University and a certificate in disruptive strategy from Harvard Business School. In 2020, he graduated from the University of Texas at Austin's McCombs School of Business with a Master's in Technology Commercialization (MSTC).

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About the hosts

Stacy Johnson founded Money Talks News in 1991. He's a CPA, and has also earned licenses in stocks, commodities, options principal, mutual funds, life insurance, securities supervisor and real estate.

Miranda Marquit, MBA, is a financial expert, writer and speaker. She's been covering personal finance and investing topics for almost 20 years. When not writing and podcasting, she enjoys travel, reading and the outdoors.

Why, why is buying individual stocks important or is

it, it's not important? And I say that because it's, it's not required at all. You don't have to do it.

But I think people do it and want to do it and have this, this itch to at least look at it is because it feels more tangible when you're investing in a mutual fund, it just kind of feels like this, this thing. You can't hold it, you can't see it, you can't touch it. But with the stock, I can at least say, hey, look, I have I own Apple and I have an iphone in my hand and I'm watching Netflix and I feel like a true participant because the longer I'm on this phone, the more content I watch Netflix are getting paid. Therefore I'm getting paid. This

is Stacy Johnson. Today's podcast,

a replay of a popular show we did a few months back. So if you didn't hear it the first time or you want to hear it again, now's your chance. Thanks for listening to Money talks news, the podcast. In this episode, we're talking about how to pick winning stocks if you're an avid investor or if you're not at one time or another, you've probably considered investing in individual stocks. I've been doing this for 40 years and over that time I've made well over a million dollars investing in the stocks of individual companies, but stock picking isn't for everyone and it does

with risk, even the best stock cookers periodically lose money. The trick is to learn a few rules that will increase your odds of success. And that is exactly what we're going to talk about today. I'm Stacy Johnson. As usual, my co-host would be financial journalist, Miranda Marquet. Hello, Miranda. Hey, Stacy. This is kind of a fun one for me because as we know, like, I don't do a lot of individual stocks but the ones I have done have done really well. So, oh, I, I actually thought you did. None. Well, I'm gonna, I'm be interested to see which ones you bought this week. We've got a guest friend of the show,

Kevin Matthews, former investment advisor and author of Starting Point. How To Create Wealth that lasts. Hello, Kevin. Hey, thank you for having me. Thanks for being here. I'm really excited about this because I love stocks and I, I rarely get to talk about them on the podcast because I have so many wimps like Miranda who's a mutual fund bar. But anyway, um, now I always hard life, so hard, Stacy. I know it's, it's a tough life. You've got going on here.

I, I always give a disclaimer before we begin these podcast folks. But today I really want you to listen to this. I want you to pay attention. We may be talking about individual companies today. In fact, I'm sure we will be, but that does not make them recommendations. This is not investment advice. Never ever invest in anything without doing your own research and, or consulting your own experts. And now hopefully that'll keep me from being sued. Let's dive in Kevin. Are you, are you a buyer of individual stocks? Yes, I am.

Have you done well at it? How long have you been doing it? You're 33 years old. How long have you been doing it?

Yeah, I've been doing it close to 11 or 12 years now.

Wow, you started early. Yeah.

Yeah. As soon as I can get my hands on a stock I did. Um,

so I actually started my very first stock, uh, was from a finance professor. Um, this was 2009 or 2010. I think so. Actually a little longer. I was right. The great recession. And he was like, hey, go by the banks. So I bought $300 of city stock. It did not go well, but I learned my lesson. That kind of, I guess, started my origin story at UL.

Well, I bought a whole bunch of bank stocks in March of 2009.

Uh, I bought, uh, JP Morgan that I remember off the top of my head at 25 bucks and it's now 100 and 50. Uh, so I, I did well buying banks at the, during the great recession.

Ok. Now Miranda, we know you, you mentioned in the, in the intro that you do buy stocks and you've done really well. Tell me about what you bought. Yeah. So occasionally I'll buy something because it looks interesting or, you know, the, the, the one that I like to use as a good example is um back in the day. So like back in 2020

like back in a March, April of 2021 of my clients uh asked me to do a stock analysis for a, an investment newsletter they were putting out and they wanted me to analyze uh the market for, uh they wanted me to analyze the market for Hard Seltzer. Um And this is like just when things were starting to close down and they wanted to know, um,

you know, what, what, what's, what's a recommendation that you would make for buying a stock with Hard Seltzer. And after making this market analysis, so I did this market analysis on Hard Seltzer. Of course, White Claws. Number one, but you can't buy its private Canadian company. Um But number two at the time, and the market was truly, uh which is owned by the Boston beer company which makes Sam Adams ticker Simple S AM.

And so I was like, oh yeah, I'm gonna recommend if you're gonna, if you're interested in a hard saucer. If you want to see something do well, um I'm gonna recommend this and um, I was a little nervous because I don't make a lot of recommendations, but we did, I put it in the newsletter, I recommended this stock and at the time I recommended it.

Um, it was, it was trading at right around $350 a share like somewhere in that range. And yeah, yeah, yeah, but that was my recommendation for uh you know, car sales reply. So by the time we get to uh September 2020 it's like it's pushing $900 it's pushing $900 a share. Um

by the time we get to the end of the year, um you know, by the time we get to, you know, November, uh it's October November, it's pushing $1000 a share. And uh what year is this? 2020 2020? So this is 2020.

And so uh it's it's peak, it peaked at about $1300 a share sometime early 2021 like April ish. And so um but because in general, when I buy, when I buy stocks, uh individual stocks, I use kind of my fun money, my play money, my experimentation money. And so uh once I, once I get to a certain point where I'm basically like doubling my money or more. I'm like, ok, it's time to, to sell. And so, um,

once I hit, once I hit that year mark, you know, so I've got the, uh, so I've got the, uh, long term capital gains, right? Because I didn't want to sell short term capital gains. Uh, I sold, I sold, you know, in March ish and ended up selling for right around $1100 a share that I bought at $300 300. And you've round trip too because I'm looking at it right now. Boston Beer Company is 300.

Yeah. So now it's down, uh, it's, it's, it's definitely dropped from the peak because it was a huge deal during the pandemic. Right? The, the thing with the hard Seltzer market was they expected it to go up when people were like, I gotta buy alcohol. I'm, you know, uh, we do at outdoor things. We could sit around outdoors and drink alcohol, uh, during the pandemic. And so, um, so I unloaded all of that after I hit that year mark and could do long term capital gains.

And so I don't have any of it left today. Um, but it's just, it's just, yeah, because part of what I do when I buy individual stocks is, um, I do so with a plan to sell after I've made X amount of dollars or after I've held it for X amount of time, um rather than

doing a long term value play, which I'm sure Kevin will talk to us about is, is, is a long term value because I've got a lot of questions on the way you did that. I mean, obviously you're successful but, but rather than ask you those questions and talk about, keep talking about the same side. Let's bring Kevin in the conversation. Kevin, what now? Actually, I've got, I've seen a note here from Marie

of my script. Why do we think of choosing individual stocks as real investing? And, and that's true because I just kind of made fun of Miranda for investing in mutual funds. You know, I feel like I'm the gunslinger here, you know, because I've got all these stocks. Why is buying individual stocks important or is it,

it's not important? And I say that because it's, it's not required at all. You don't have to do it.

But I think people do it and want to do it and have this, this itch to at least look at it is because it feels more tangible when you're investing in a mutual fund. It just kind of feels like this, this thing. You can't hold it, you can't see it, you can't touch it. But with the stock, I can at least say, hey, look, I have an I Own Apple and I have an iphone in my hand and I'm watching Netflix and I feel like a true participant

because the longer I'm on this phone, the more content I watch that are getting paid, therefore I'm getting paid. So I think that's the perception of it. Um, there's risk and rewards on either side of that. You can obviously do both like I do. Um, but I think that's the reason why people gravitate more towards stocks or why they feel like they have to, but it's not at all required.

That's, that's my follow up question then. Is it required? And I mean, who should be buying stocks or should any? I mean, I think most people in the financial advice business that is financial journalists like Miranda or me, um, we often suggest just

put, put some money into a mutual fund, keep adding to it every month, you know, like, like a 401k type thing, right? Um, because you can't buy individual stocks on 401k anyway, but you're going like, you know, don't try to, don't try to find a winner, just buy the whole market. It's gone up an average of 10% per year over the last 100 years, blah, blah, blah.

What's wrong with that advice? Or, or should people do both? And, and how would you decide?

There's absolutely nothing wrong with that advice? I think where you, you get careful or where, where people can get skittish or where people make mistakes is how far away do you drift from that advice? So, for example, I make sure for, for me, I don't have more than 15% in individual stocks of all my, my portfolio. That's as far as I go because it is,

it's more risky. Now, you got some people that just throw it all out the window and just 100% stocks and just pick whatever. Right. That can be dangerous. It can also be worth it depending on what you invest in. So it's really about how far away do you stray from that? And what are those guard rails like in case you are wrong is what I talk about all the time. What is that, that quote un quote insurance policy for me, I've got my index funds and if I'm wrong, 85% of my money is there, I'm going to be ok if I happen to choose the wrong stock.

And, you know, that's almost precisely Kevin, coincidentally how, what I advise people now, I used to say all mutual funds all the time. It, it just because it takes a lot of more effort to invest in individual stocks and as you point out also risky. But you know what I say? Now, I say 90% in mutual funds,

10 10% swing for the fence, you know, you know, because it can change your life and, and I know Miranda and Aaron have heard me say this so many times. I'm sure it's gonna make them nauseous, but I, I put $1500 into Apple 20 years ago and I made more than a million dollars on it and to be able to swing for the fence and, and that doesn't mean gamble. You know, the reason I bought apples because my girl friend at the time is now my wife,

um, was carrying around. She, she wanted a, uh, what are the ipod? Right. And, and I was too tight to buy one myself. I bought her one as a gift because it cost like 300 bucks if I recall. But instead I bought the stock, same thing with Facebook.

I, I just bought some more of that not long ago. I, I don't have a bunch of maybe 200 chairs. But anyway, the reason I bought it is because her butt's not in a seat before she's checking in at a restaurant. I mean, she's, she's on there all the time. She pretends like she's paying attention to me but she's not, she's looking at her damn phone. And so I thought if everybody's obsessed with this thing, maybe I should buy it. I'm still not on Facebook very much, but I, but I made a ton of money in the stock.

Uh, so this is how I pick a stock, you know, I see what's going on out there.

Uh, what are people doing and then looking at that company and then trying to get more information. But by the way, by the way, I was also lucky, I don't want to sound like I'm smart. But when I bought Apple, I bought it because of ipods. Well, that, and then all of a sudden the iphone came along that changed everything, you know. So that, that was luck. I didn't know that was gonna happen. Obviously I couldn't see the future. So, but, you know, and, and, and also I'm gonna talk about stocks that I've made money in, but I've also lost money in stocks too and I'll make that very clear.

Uh But, you know, one of the things, um I'm trying to remember the guy's name who used to run Fidelity and he's written books, uh Peter Lynch.

Uh he wrote a book, uh he's written several books on how to invest. And one of the things he said was remember that when you're a batter uh in baseball, if you get 40% or if you get 40% of the time you're a star, you're a big star.

Uh And the same thing with the stock market, you're gonna be wrong.

But when you're right, if you let those profits run,

that's how you change everything. Like, like I own, I, I bought um

NVIDIA uh during the, the

uh COVID 2021. When was that? 2021?

Yeah, I did an NVIDIA run. Yeah. What did you do? Do you still have it? Um I sold, I sold off enough to have doubled my money and then, um, and then I've got a little bit left because I put 10 grand in it, in, in 2021. It's worth 80 right now. 80,000. Yeah. And so I mean, um so yeah, so when I, when I put some in um back in, in uh uh I would think I went,

I think I went late 2020. So when it was at about 138 and then when it hit, you know, it was hitting, um,

God, somewhere around 300 or so, I went ahead and sold, um about 75% of it, but I have enough left that, you know, I'm doing, it's doing great because, you know, it's, it's, it's, it's, you know, it's above 450 right now. So like I saved some of it, but I, but I just have, I just kind of have these rules where I'm just like, ok, when I double my money, when I do what I like, when I can take profits enough that I've doubled the money I've put in,

I'm gonna take some profits. Um And that's kind of my rule is like nothing wrong with that. But I would also say, I mean, obviously there's nothing wrong with the success period. But I would also say though that because you're only gonna be right, a certain percentage of the time that you've got to let your profits run and cut your losses short. And by the way, I was a stockbroker for 10 years and, and I'll tell you this is the opposite of what people do

because they say you, you can't go broke taking a profit. So they'll take a profit of $300. And then, and then when something goes against them, when their stock starts going down, they'll go, well, when it comes back to where I paid for it, then I'll sell it and then, then they write it all the way down to nothing,

you know. Yeah. And I think so part of, part of what I do because I am to a lot of extent, very risk averse with my investments as part of the reason why I take stock, take profits when I reach a certain point is like I still have some NVIDIA. So there's still some upside for me to capture. It's still gonna happen. Like I'm still making money like I can still make money from it, but I've already made the profit. I've already, I've already locked in profits. And so if it does ride down to zero,

uh I've already made money off of it and uh I've already doubled my money in it. And so so I don't feel as bad if, if it goes to zero and I'm perfectly happy if I can capture more profits down the road. Well, there were many, many times when I would, would I have been advised to sell Apple over 20 years, you know, you watch C NBC and you're getting so much information

all the time and you know what's even worse when you're a stockbroker? I mean, you sit there all day staring at the stock market and it makes you pull the trigger too soon. But if I'd have listened to advice I wouldn't have made, you know, have whatever percent that is 10,000% on my, on my apple investment. You know, I just remembered something. We have a guest.

What are you sharing us? Heaven's on the show. I forgot all about it. Um You know what? Let me, let me take, let me take a quick break and then Miranda and I will continue to fritter away this whole podcast. We'll be right back after this.

Ok. We're back before we start again though. If you like what we do, do something for us and share this show with your friends and family on your favorite social media platforms and subscribe to our podcast. It takes you two seconds, but we really would appreciate it. Ok. Now let's reintroduce our guest who's supposed to be telling us how to pick stocks? Kevin? What have you thought about all this stuff? What, what rules do you have when you're approaching stocks?

Yeah. So 11 thing you had mentioned was letting your profits run long and cutting your, your losers short. That is almost word for word. What my uh what my process is. Um So I have two standing dates on my calendar when I come back and re evaluate my portfolio, it's June and December every year I come back and say, hey, look, who are the losers? We will cut those short and which ones are winners

and we'll continue holding on to those. Um So that's a big part of my investing process. That's, that's helped me to be quite successful. Um And making sure that like Miranda, I take some of those earnings if I've won, like I picked up a video in 2020 it was up more than 350% for me. I sold a third of it and said, all right, let's take some of these, these gains and let's invest them in other areas to kind of diversify my portfolio.

That makes sense.

Wimp, at least you only sold a third of it. I was tempted to sell it when things went south because I think I paid 300 for it and it went down to 100 and 50. I didn't buy more, which I should have. I did buy more, uh, uh meta at 100 and 50 now it's 300 something. But anyway, ok, one of the things though, everyone's listening, they're gonna go, well, obviously you let your profits run and you cut your losses short. I mean, because, but sometimes things go down and then they come back up.

So how do you know when it, when something is a true loser?

Yeah. So that, that can be difficult at times because we all talked about NVIDIA. But I don't know how many people remember. 2022 NVIDIA was down like 65%. So, so that's the part of it, right. Um, the question though is, is when a stock is down, you'd have to ask why

is it down? Because people weren't making microchips and people weren't using computers anymore. That wasn't the case. And that was the reason why I continued to hold. But if you take a stock like Peloton where it was extremely popular during the pandemic and now no one talks about it anymore and no one, you know, they're losing money, bikes are breaking,

you know, that, that says there's something wrong with that business and when you start to see something wrong with a business or a company, that might be a true loser when a company is fine and their sales are ok and their market is ok. But the stock market just doesn't like it at that particular point in time, then that could be something that you can continue holding long

term. I think that's exactly. Yeah. I totally agree with what you said. What, what I used to tell people when I was a stockbroker was,

and this is not easy to do. I don't really do this myself, but I'd like to think I would because what you're doing is here are the reasons I'm buying the stock you know, 123. Ok. Now that stock goes down, do those reasons still? Are those reasons still true if they are buy more, if they're not sell. So like Apple, for example, and this is another thing that I look at too. Apple has a moat. In other words, no one's gonna touch them. I mean, not, not in my lifetime anyway, which maybe before the end of the weekend, but

I mean, Apple owns the smartphone market and smartphones are very popular. So as long as they're still dominating that field, I'm sticking with them, I actually have sold some because I, you know, I had, it became such a large part of my portfolio that I had to. But uh but so what I try to find is a business that owns Coca Cola, they own the market, they ain't going anywhere, you know,

and Apple and, and NVIDIA for that matter. I mean, a lot of people listening to this probably won't even know who NVIDIA is. But, you know, they own that market, you know, they, they own the server market, they own the gaming market and they're, and now they own the A I market. Uh So as long as they, as long as they own their market and they have a moat around their castle, I'm an investor

and I tried to, and, you know, when I was a stockbroker, I would chase stupid tips, you know, because some, some other stockbroker models go, oh yo you have to buy so, and so, you know, because I know the company and they're gonna, you know, it's gonna manipulate a stock, blah, blah, blah. And you lose your ass. But if you buy quality and, and the companies with a moat around them and you hold on for long periods of time, you will, I will guarantee you that you will make money over time.

Yeah, I think that's, that's the one thing where people make the mistake and that's where I made my first stock market mistake. Right. I bought city. I was, you know, 1920 years old and after like, two months I didn't make money, I sold it.

I didn't know that this was something you should be holding for years at the time. And that's sometimes the difference where people will turn around, get impatient and just sell because it was a bad month or it was a bad week when in reality, true gains are made by holding year after year after year. And that's when you start to see those gains. And that's an easy way to weather some of those losses at times

because if I've held for two years and I've gained over two years, it is rare, not impossible but rare that one bad month or one bad year is gonna take my entire investment. Um, but to get there, you have to be patient and to get there, you have to sit down, ignore the news sometimes and let those stocks work for themselves.

Absolutely. Right. And I think, and actually, while we're on this topic too, let's talk about trading

because this is something that I've seen my whole life, you know, as a stockbroker with my clients and with my friends and with myself, you know, I'm gonna buy some, I'm gonna day trade. Well, let me tell you something. That's the stupidest thing you can do. Go to Vegas because they, at least they'll give you free drinks when you're losing your money. Because I was, I mean, really though, I mean, there is an inverse relationship. Here's a rule that I have, there's an inverse relationship between the amount of time,

uh, you hold something and how successful you're gonna be. In other words, what the market's gonna do today is a flip of a coin. I have no way of knowing that, but I do know that over the last 100 years the stock market's gone up, uh, on an average of, well, depending on how you measure it. 9 10% a year. So, holding something for long is the same thing with real estate. Right? I mean, a lot of things are, you can, you can look brilliant if you hold on to him long enough and you can look like an idiot if you try to trade him in a day.

Yeah, I totally agree. There was a presentation, um, I, I sat through when I was an advisor myself a few years ago. And it is, this image is burned into my memory now. So they put up a slide, it had three lines on it and it said that I, I forget what the time frame was. It was maybe like 70 or 80 years in the S and P 500. And they said that if you hold a stock for five years or more, the chances of that investment being uh positive was greater than 90%.

If you hold it for three years or more, then the chances of that investments were like above 80% and it had one year or less and it was less than 50%. And that instantly told me the longer you hold the odds are you're going to win. And there's a reason for that. But when you are reducing that where it's not even a year, you're talking about a day, a few hours, like you said, you're gambling at that point, you're not even in, you know, air conditioning and getting drinks for it, right? So like

that's what makes it a lot riskier. Your margin for error is so incredibly small when you're trying to day trade. And that's because you have to know three things and get them right. That's what to buy when to get in and when to get out all within a day, five days a week for 52 weeks. That's incredibly difficult to do. Whereas if you are investing for years at a time,

yeah, you could choose the right investment. But over time, that's one thing that you don't have to worry about because odds are the entire stock market is going to raise or rise rather over 1234 years and so on.

That's true. And, you know, another thing that's worked for me too, it's really difficult to give this kind of advice because people are so short term oriented, they can't really appreciate it. But what, what I try to do too, most of what I own now I bought in 2009.

Uh obviously there are exceptions like NVIDIA but, and the, and the reason why is because, ok, I was a stockbroker in 1981. I became a stockbroker and, and there was a recession in 1990. Uh there was obviously in 1987 there was a stock market crash. I didn't buy when the market fell in 1991 there was a banking crisis I didn't buy because I was scared to death. I mean, C Citibank was five, you know, and then, uh in, in the great recession

in 2009, I was like, I'm gonna back the truck up because everybody said the market's gonna keep falling down, the sky is falling, Henny Penny, right? Uh And so what I it took me, my point was, it took me three recessions to realize that when things go down and everybody in the world is convinced they're gonna get worse. That's when you buy because that's what, that's, that's actually when welt is created. Welter is realized when you sell.

But it's, it's created when you buy when nobody else will. And, and so if, if anybody listening, if I give you one piece of advice, the market's high right now, it, it's high on a historical basis in terms of earnings. I wouldn't be a big buyer here and I may be wrong. In fact, I have been wrong because I bought some stocks this year in the, in the market. You know, the, the, uh, Nasdaq's up, what, 30% this year? And I was not a big buyer because I thought the market was too expensive. I was wrong, but I'll tell you what, when the market gets really cheap,

uh, you gotta buy that and then just hold, you know, don't be afraid. Just hold. And that's the best way you're gonna make money. That's, that's my advice of 40 years of investing.

I tend to agree. The way I look at it is always be buying. So even though the market is up, I'm still buying, but when the market is down is when I get aggressive, that's when I say, look, you know, I could go out to eat today or, you know, I get a fancy dinner or I can, you know, get something cheaper and put this money in the market.

Um So that's, that's what I tend to do. And my first real opportunity for that was in 2020. Um because the great recession, I didn't really have that much money and I was still in college so it wasn't the biggest opportunity for me.

Um But what I did in 2020 truly paid off and I'm still holding the vast majority of those investments I picked up o'reilly's which is up more than 75% for me. Uh NVIDIA was one, it was, I was up around 350 until I sold that third. Um But that's, that's what I said back then, like

the wealth that is going to be created in 2025 starts now, right? It started in 2020 the wealth that's going to be created in 2023 you're really gonna start to see that in 2027. And that's, that's almost always been the case for those who are consistently buying and those who get very aggressive when the market is down.

So how do you, how do you decide to pull the trigger? This is the most important thing and it's, and sometimes it's hard to articulate, but how do you know what do you do? OK. You, you hear a video is gonna might be good. Uh And maybe I, I watch a lot of C NBC, not a lot, but I watch fast money and I watch uh Jim Kramer somewhat.

Um So, and so my point is this is where I get a lot of input. I'm reading a lot of financial stuff and so I hear about stocks like NVIDIA, you know, and then, and then, but what do you do after that? You've heard of something like NVIDIA? What makes you pull the trigger? There

are three things that I tend to look at, let's say if I just heard about a stock on TV or something like that.

Uh The first thing that I like to do is see how well the stock has performed within the last six months and over the last year, that just gives me just, just context to see if things are going in the right direction or not. And the reason why I do that is because there have been several studies on what we call momentum, how a stock has done recently will tend to predict how it will do in the short term moving forward. But it's not a guarantee. Uh For example, if NVIDIA is up 100 and 50% I'm more likely to go that way than a Peloton that's down 95%.

That is kind of very common sense. And that's gonna tell me, should I continue researching? Yes or no? If the answer is yes, then the next thing I try to look for is profits I want to see is this company actually making more money over time and is it expanding or is it something that is falling off or is it something that's negative? And that's usually not a, not a good side.

So once I start to see those two things that's, I'm at a, you know, 90 95%. Yes. The last thing I tend to look at, um, is what we call insider buying. I would love to see if the CEO or anybody on the board of directors, if they are buying current shares of the company because they, they're gonna always have more information

than we have. Um You can usually Google this information. It comes up on what's called the SEC for four. And there's a Harvard research study that came out about 10 or 15 years ago that said that for Insider buys when you start to see those insiders buy, they outperform the stock market by 10%. So that is something that I look for. So how well did it do recently?

Is the company making money? Is that money growing? And who is buying shares of the company that work there? Um Like the CEO and does an imported director?

Excellent advice. And by the way, a little color out there is that if somebody's selling that, that means nothing. Exactly because they could be buying a yacht or putting their kids through college or any number of things. But there's only one reason you buy a stock and that's because you think it's going higher So if your insiders are buying, that's a good sign. What, what about you, Miranda? You got any tips? What do you use?

Um Yeah, so I mean, for me mostly it just comes down to, you know, I look at some of the things that um

that, that Kevin has talked about but for me, it comes down to, uh do I think that I can hop on a trend? And do I think that this trend is going to be sustainable long enough for me to double my money? It's, it's not very scientific. Uh which is why I don't do a lot of individual stock uh stock investing. But

me mostly it just, it just comes down to OK, I have some extra money that I can kind of experiment with. What seems like an interesting experiment and what seems like um I have a good chance of doubling my money with based on, you know, that profitability that momentum and I'll look at things like, OK, what,

you know, what seems sustainable and then um you know, what tends to look like it might have some, some staying power or value. And so uh it's, it's really sad you shouldn't use by process because it's, it's very vibes that not really scientific, which is why I only use a small amount of, you know, my portfolio for this. Uh Most of it continues to be dollar cost averaging into index funds because ultimately, um

I'm lazy there's a lot of research to do. There is, there is, and, you know, and to be honest, Miranda, I buy stuff by the seat of my pants sometimes too. I, I take flyers. I mean, I, I don't try to, I try to do something stupid. Uh, but, uh, but I'll, I'll just do what you do. I mean, I'll just get a feeling, you know, because I've done this for a really long time. Not that I'm right again. I want it, I'm not right all the time,

not by a long shot. But, uh, I, I'll look at, I'll look at things like price earnings ratios and things of that sort, especially the, the price earnings ratio relative to the historical price earnings ratio of that particular company. So in other words, a company could have a high, I don't know if any people listening will know what pe ratios are, but look it up if you don't, uh, if a, if a company has a high pe ratio, that may be ok providing it's not high relative to its historical pe ratio,

uh, I missed Amazon for many years. I, I own it now and I've troubled my money on it but it took me years and years to buy it because it had no earnings, you know, and, and as Kevin was saying, you know, the first thing you want to do is make sure a company's making money or they're just about to anyway, Um, but, and Amazon wasn't forever. I mean, you know, it just started making money a couple of years ago, I think. Yeah. Yeah, you're right. And so I was on the sidelines. I made the same mistake.

Yeah, you do that too. I own it now. I bought, I think I can't even remember what I paid for it. I bought it maybe four years ago and I made money on it. Uh, but I wish I'd bought it 10 years ago. You know, I didn't but, you know, you miss things sometimes, but that's ok.

Yeah. And that's something I've learned about investing in general is that

one, you know, your process is your process, however you evaluate. If it, if it works, it works and, you know, you're gonna miss some and that's fine. I'd rather miss out on good deals than take bad ones. I think that's, that's one way to look at it. Um, but I think more importantly, you know, 10 years from now, you're gonna wish you started 10 years ago. And I think that's the importance of just starting, whether you still want to attend to mutual funds, which is totally fine. Or if you want to add a few more individual stocks, the key is starting because again,

just based on how the market works, you're going to be right if you are holding long enough. Um, usually, you know, more often than not. Yeah,

that's true. I mean, there are two risks in buying a sock. One is bankruptcy and the other is a market um, bankruptcy risk. You can, you can eliminate by buying companies and will go bankrupt like Coca Cola, for example, um, market risk you can't control.

So, you know, so eliminate the risk, you can bankruptcy if possible. I mean, actually, obviously, as we know almost anyone who go bankrupt GM did, but generally speaking, big giant companies are not gonna go bankrupt. Uh, and then, and then don't let market risk bother you. And one more thing I would add too, uh, when the market fell last year I didn't really care. Uh, and the reason why is because I don't have so much money in the market. It is making me lose sleep.

I mean, I have a lot of money in the market but I've done this for a really long time and I know the market goes down but if you find yourself sweating, you know? Oh God. Oh, it's, you're checking, it's going down more, you're freaking out. You got too much money in the market, you know. So be careful. Don't, don't put in more than you. I'm not gonna say more than you can afford to lose because that's stupid. But, but don't put in more than that makes you lose sleep.

Yeah. Yeah, that, that's an excellent point. Um, what I do is like I, like I said earlier, like I really only check my investment account twice a year. And that's it.

Uh, for some people that's shocking, but that's the reason why if I am constantly staring at my account, then I'm, I'm going to make a mistake. That that's just human nature. We are wired and that, that's, that's the issue with investing too is that it goes against your, your nature. Right? When you start to see danger, you want to react as, as humans. We remember those terrible hurricanes, rainstorms, thunderstorms.

You know, if I asked you what was the worst, worst hurricane you've been through, you know exactly what that day was like. Most people don't remember those perfect days in between. And there are far more perfect weather days than there are bad days. But when you're looking at your account, you see that terrible drop when Netflix fell 13% in the day and you react, that usually goes against what you should be doing, which is buying more or just sitting out. So I I to fight against that, I say look,

you know, June 15th, December 15th, that's why I'm looking. That's why I'm making those changes and I'm not doing anything in between. And that's one way you can kind of get away from that, that reactionary uh place of, of thinking that

is amazing to me that you only look twice a year, especially with stocks like NVIDIA. Uh not that you're wrong to do that, but I, I look at my portfolio, you know, what I do, to be honest, I look at my portfolio several times a day when the market's up

and then when it's down, when it's down, I don't look at it at all.

Yeah, I had a tweet uh last year, it was around June when I was looking at my portfolio because that was the year that the stock market was down like 20% at this time, it had to be down about 10.

Uh It was my first time, all year, opened up my rock ballet and I was actually up like 12% or whatever it was. Um And it was kind of shocking. I'm like, oh, this is why I only check it, you know, twice a year because had I not uh if I checked it earlier in the year, I probably did something crazy and lost money like everybody else. Um But that's, you know, that's the way I manage it. You really gotta manage those emotions and expectations.

Cool. Anybody have any stock recommendations as we close our podcast.

I mean, you know, index guys like

real,

you gotta take a chance. You can't get a hit from the dugout. I don't know. As I said earlier, I'm not a big buyer of stocks right now because I think the market's over overvalued, but I've thought that for months, you know, so I've obviously been wrong. If I was gonna buy something today, I'd probably add to my Google. I have a, a bunch of that, not a bunch but, you know, enough, but I'd probably add to that. But. Right. I'm not real enthusiastic right now. How about you, Kevin?

Yeah, outside of buying index funds which I want to reiterate the majority of my money, the vast majority is there. Um, I like Chipotle. Chipotle is not only a delicious place to eat, but it's also a very good stock. Uh, I think in the last year alone it's up more than 60%. And when you, yeah, when you start to look at, um, we call free cash flow like the money they get in their hand. Oh, the last two years has been double digits. They're, they're growing at a good steady pace. Um, it's one that

I picked up maybe three or four weeks ago and one I intend on holding for a very long time.

Oh, really? I thought you were because it was, it was lower last year. I thought I looked at it then. Wasn't it under 1000 for a while? I

believe so. I had it on my phone a second ago. So it is

last year

up 63%. Uh, so it's over $2000 a share. Last February was about 15

100. Yeah, I was, I was thinking about buying it but I wiped out and I didn't. And you know, another thing too, this is another thing I won't do is buy companies where I don't like the product, even though, even though they're, we successful example, mcdonald's, I ain't buying it. It's been a great stock. I mean, it's been an awesome stock, but I, I've just, I don't like their product. I'm not gonna buy it and I'm not a huge fan of Chipotle, uh, either.

But anyway, I lived in Tucson. I like genuine Mexican food. But anyway, anyway, I know we're running over. I could do this all day. This is my favorite topic, but I can't, we gotta stop. We are out of time, folks. We are never out of topic. Dig a little deeper. You're gonna find links to lots more info on our show notes. In fact, you can also find my entire stock portfolio in our show notes. You wanna see what I own

and don't forget to check out Miranda's online home as well. That is Miranda Marquet dot com. Ma rquit. And of course you want to visit Kevin at his website. It's building bread, building bread dot com. You got a question, comment or topic. You'd like to suggest we would love to hear from you. Email us at hello at money talks news dot com. And one last thing I already said this at the break, but if you like what we do, please subscribe to our podcast

and that's all we got, Kevin. I really appreciate having you on again. You're a friend of the show. We love you. We hope to have you back soon. Thank you. I'm Stacy Johnson.

Oh, yeah, sorry. I'm Miranda Marquis. Were you looking at this story?

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