4 Ways President-Elect Trump Is Going to Affect Your Money and Your Life

Published Nov 8, 2024, 5:01 PM

Stocks are surging. Rates are rising. Inflation clouds are beginning to gather.

President-elect Trump's policies could turn your family's finances upside down.

Will the stock celebration continue? Are taxes going down? What will 60% traiffs on Chinese imports do to prices?

We're exploring all that and more on this week's podcast. It's information you need to know. So sit back, relax, and check it out.

It could make you richer.

And to stay ahead of the curve, subscribe to the Money Talks News newsletter and YouTube channel now. Your future self will thank you!

Video version: https://youtu.be/Fi_qoOB_oJg

Timestamps:
0:00 Introduction
1:29 Stock Market Reaction
5:05 Trump's Tax Plans
10:05 Tariffs and Trade
15:27 Inflation and Interest Rates
19:54 Conclusion and Advice

Hey guys and welcome to Money Talks News, the podcast. I'm your host, Stacy Johnson. I'm the founder of Money Talks News. And joining me is Kim, we my friend and colleague. Hey, Kim.

Hey, how are you doing, Stacey?

I am doing very, very well. Thank you. It's two days after the election and today we're gonna talk a little bit, we're gonna talk about 10 minutes. Um We're gonna talk about three ways that uh Donald Trump president elect Trump, I should say is gonna change your money and your life. Let's start off with the stock market. Uh Kim, I know that you're a stock investors. We talk about stocks all the time. What are you thinking about the market? It was up 1500 points yesterday. That's the dow it's up another, I think 300 points today.

What are you thinking? You like? It,

it

feels good. I think when, when the election results came in, a friend of mine asked me just like, you know how you feel. I'm like my crypto is up. So, you know, that's crazy. Awesome. Um So on that respect, you know, it's, it's, it's been interesting, interesting to see how much of an influence

a Trump win has had on the,

why do you think that is?

Well, I think, I mean, if we're just looking purely on the campaign trail, you know, he, he had some major backers behind him. Right? I think for me, I saw Elon Musk and Tesla, which is, you know, part of the EV movement backing up there and, and Twitter, he announced, you know, his own crypto. So there's clear some, some range and some thoughts into that new space. Um, and I think if from a just over overarching historical side of things, I think, you know,

uh Republicans are always supportive of big business. So

let's get specific. Uh, and, and in fact, if you look at what parts of the stock market went up yesterday, it's illustrative. Ok, for example, yesterday, banking, the bank stocks, financial stocks screamed, I mean, the market went up 3% bank stocks up six and I always say bank, I mean financial, ok. Also oil stocks went up a lot yesterday. Now

there should be something in common. I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna put you on the spot and ask you this. But let me just tell you what do those two industries have in common? They're heavily regulated. Now, Donald Trump is a champion of stripping away regulation.

Ok. So this is one thing that accelerated the entire market, those two industries in particular, but lots of other ones as Well, in fact, the renewable energy industry was trashed yesterday. Uh So if you're, if you're making solar panels, you're, you're not in good shape. But if you're making, if you're pumping oil, you're a winner. Ok. So anyway, so one of the reasons the market went up yesterday is because of deregulation.

Uh At least the hope of deregulation. Remember that President elect Trump is not President Trump until January, but this is what the market's looking forward to now. And the other thing which should be relatively obvious as well, and we're gonna talk about this some more is taxes.

Um, Trump wants to lower taxes for corporations from 21 to 15, I believe is what it is.

Uh, and, and it looks like he's gonna have support of Congress to be able to do that as we speak right now. The House is still undecided, but it could be decided maybe even before this podcast is over. But even even if the Democrats win the house, their majority is going to be this big. I mean, it's very, very slim. So the odds are good that Trump's gonna be able to get through his economic agenda and this is why the stock market's reacting the way it is.

I know that makes total sense to me. I think, I think,

uh, given the, the corporate tax rate dropping, do, how does that

come down to me? It affect me as the average American. Well, it

affects you as a stockholder, first of all, because, um, uh, if, if corporations pay less taxes,

well, they got more money to go to their bottom line, they're more profitable. So that's why these companies would become more valuable. And that obviously affects you, Kim, if you've got a 401k, you know, or something like that in the stock market. And I know, as I said earlier, I know personally that you do invest in stocks but, but it also know taxes could come down. Certainly, I'll tell you what, I'm in a high income. I'm in, I'm in the top tax bracket

and Trump's original tax, the tax cuts that he, he did in 2017, I guess

the tax

cuts and Jobs Act.

Yeah. There you go. Thank you. Um, has saved me hundreds of thousands of dollars in income tax, hundreds of thousands. Um, now, so if you're a wealthy person, you're super happy about the, about Trump being elected, especially relative to Harris because Harris was gonna raise taxes on the wealthy. Uh, that was one of her major planks on her platform.

Uh, Trump is gonna lower them. He also has promised to lower taxes for the middle class but a little more, uh, indistinct. Not, not really sure exactly what he has in mind there.

Uh, but that's one of the things that, uh, that people are celebrating both in the stock market and maybe as individuals too.

Yeah, that was

my question on that. Like, I, I haven't heard anything from either side regarding the kind of the middle class, you know, like uh regarding tax deduction,

Harris had a lot of stuff that she was trying to promote for the middle class. But ok, here's, here's a couple of things that Trump said about the middle class. He said he was gonna not tax tips. That's a big thing for people in the middle or lower,

you know, lower income people and middle, middle class people. Also, he said he was gonna stop taxing social security. That's a ton of people, people my age,

you know, and overtime pay too,

right? Overtime pay as well. Yeah. So these are, these are ways tax, middle class taxes could get lowered. Now, whether any of this stuff comes to pass or not, one of the things we always have to say when we're talking about any politician is saying something and doing something are two different things.

And in fact, and in fact, let, let's move on. I'm gonna see where we are at time wise.

Well, I can't tell anyway, uh let's move on to, from uh from taxes to tariffs. Got it. Ok. Now, you know, this is a really interesting thing to me because not just this election but the last election

uh Trump was talking about and he did, he did put tariffs on a lot of Chinese goods, not that there were, there were tariffs before, but, but he strengthened those tariffs and he talked a lot about them and what he said was he's gonna take money from China and he's going to give it to the American people. In other words, the people who are selling us stuff are gonna be paying tariffs.

That's not true. That's just, that's just false.

Can

I ask you a very different question? What is a tariff?

Ok. That's, that's a good question. Thank you. Consider, consider a tariff of tax. Ok. Ok. So for example, you go to the store and you buy groceries, there's a sales tax, right? Yeah. So you, you've got the price of the item on the shelf but then you also get to pay tax extra,

uh, when you get to the checkout and that goes to the state. Same exact thing here. You buy a car from Germany and it costs $10,000. If you buy a car from Germany, it probably costs more than $10,000. But anyway,

that's it. I don't know what German car you're driving

anyway. Let's say you do that though. Ok. Now you pay $10,000 for the car in Germany. But when you get it here, when you go to pick it up, it cost you, it cost you extra grand

because the government has a 10% tariff. The, like a tax, uh, on, on that. And, and the reason why, why is the government putting on tariffs? Well, the government's putting on tariffs because maybe they're, they're pissed that the Germans are, uh, they're not letting our cars in their country, uh, or, or maybe they're giving them a discount, you know, may, maybe they're subsidizing cars in, in Germany so that they're cheaper for them to produce. That means our manufacturers with car here are, they're not playing on a level playing field.

And so what the government tries to do is influence uh the direction of trade by putting on tariffs or removing tariffs. And what Trump has always said and, and proper and correctly in some cases

was it ain't fair. And, and real example, the uh the Chinese government was subsidizing the steel industry so that steel was cheaper for us to buy from China even though think how much steel weighs, how much it costs, you know, to get it from China to here. But it was so much less expensive that American car manufacturers and others like that were buying their, their steel from China.

And so, but that's not fair. We have still, we have still companies here but they're not subsidized by the government. And so, and so, you know, that's a perfectly night or a good place for you to put in a tariff, you know, it ain't fair. And so that's what, that's what Trump did and that's what lots of presidents have done and that's what tariffs are good for. Makes sense,

right? That does make sense. But so what's the difference this time because you know what, what he said and what you just mentioned, it was like, you know, China's gonna pay, you know, for these tariffs, but they're

not,

I mean, theoretically

theoretically China could pay but the tariff by, ok. Going back to our example, with Germany, the Germans could sell me that knowing that I'm gonna have to pay $1000 tax. Uh They may sell me that car for $9000. I see. Ok. So now they may take, obviously they're taking it to their bottom line in order to get me to buy their car, got it. And so that so the Chinese could do that, you know, they could lower the price of stuff. So the tariffs wouldn't matter. And that does happen to some extent

when, when tariffs are involved. But what tariffs are supposed to do too, if, if it's so expensive for me to buy this German car, let's say it's 100% tariff, which actually is a tariff on Chinese cars. Um Now it's gonna be way cheaper for me to build a manufacturing plant in the United States and build it here because no one can afford this Chinese car anymore. And that's, that's another thing that tariffs are supposed to be doing.

They're, they're supposed to price other, you know, competitors out of the market or overseas competitors out of the market and encourage people to, to build factories here. And in fact, you might even have. And we have had uh Japanese car car companies have built manufacturing facilities in the United States uh in order to get closer to their market. And so, you know, it's, it's to encourage domestic production basically and to penalize partners. Now,

what Trump has also said though was that he wants to put a 60% tariff on everything coming from China and, and a 10 or 20% tariff on everything coming from everywhere else.

Now that imagine paying 60 percent more for everything coming from China and 20% more for everything coming from everywhere else. Fruit from Brazil, you know, cars from Japan. I mean, it just goes on and on. Wine from France, you know, and so you can see why and we're going to talk about inflation in a moment, but you can see how this could be inflationary and that's what people are freaked out about. Now,

here's another thing though

Trump is, shall we, shall we say Mercurial? He's, he says stuff and maybe, maybe what he's doing is is he's saying to China,

I'm gonna charge, I'm gonna have a chair for 60% on every single thing you try to sell this country. But maybe it doesn't mean that maybe because they know he might, who knows what this guy's gonna do? He's a horse in the hospital.

I heard that

it's a very good comedy routine. Look it up after this. You will laugh. OK. Anyway, John Mulaney. Anyway, um, he might do anything. So, what, what do they like me to do if I tell you, Kim, I'm gonna, I'm gonna cut your pay by 60%.

You'd be like, holy crap, Stacey don't do that. You actually look shocked right now a little bit.

But so, but what I'm doing is I'm setting you up. So then why I only cut your pay 10 percent. You're like,

so maybe what he's doing is, you know, blustering when he actually is just trying to get them to the table and get them to, to cooper now knowing Trump, I don't,

neither does anybody else. I have no idea what's in his head. So, but I'm just saying maybe this giant tariff isn't as bad as it sounds like maybe it's just a negotiating tactic. We will have to wait and see.

Ok. So uh so I, I get that and you, you mentioned it earlier, you know, this with tariffs and raising them there. It, it is an inflationary, right? So

let's talk, inflation definitely gotten up in price or at least it feels like it, you know, when I go to the grocery store, when I'm getting gas, all those things, you know, what, what I'm hearing and what I've read is, you know, the fed continues to basically, you know, reduce, you know, to a level that is supposed to lower inflation, you know, even, even, even to,

I think as of this recording, they, they're putting up a vote right

to

cut interest rates.

So with that, with that

in mind, what, what is Trump's plans to, to also battle that, you know?

Ok, let me make a, I want to make a quick note about inflation before we continue. I wrote about this the other day,

inflation is coming down. It got as high as 9% I believe in 2022 largely because of, of the um pandemic. But it, and it's come down a lot. So now it's back to about where it was in 2020 about two, a little over 2% and 2% is where the fed likes it to be because they don't want to have deflation which is falling prices. And so, but when I tell people inflation's coming down, they say na uh

the eggs are still just as expensive as they were, you know. Well, the thing is that's deflation prices aren't gonna come down. They're gonna stop going up by as much. That's when inflation is coming down. In other words, instead of going up 9% it's going up 2% but it ain't gonna go back to where it was in 1940. Ok. And the reason why you don't want deflation sounds good. But when you have deflation, what you end up doing is collapsing your economy, why? Because why am I gonna buy a car for $10,000 today if I can get it for $9500 tomorrow.

So, so people stop buying stuff, your economy goes off a cliff and bringing it back is, is really, really difficult. Whereas taming inflation, rising prices is relatively easy. And so that's why inflation is, is not, is not as bad as people think it is. And certainly not as bad as it was portrayed to be on the campaign

trail.

That makes way more sense to me because I, I was hoping, you know, eggs would go down to a dollar.

But we all, we all hope that. Yeah. But you know, if, if you see prices on everything

falling really fast, head for the hills, buy a shotgun and canned goods, that may be an exaggeration. But, I mean, it's, you don't want to see deflation, you want to see inflation not going up more than a couple of percent. And that's basically where we are now. So if, if Trump doesn't do anything,

he, I mean, and of course, knowing him, he'll say, well, I, I tamed inflation inflation is already taped, however he can make it worse. How tariffs for one, I mean, if everything you buy is more expensive and by the way, who do you think this hurts the most? Poor people? Are rich people,

poor people. Yeah, of

course. You know, if the price of everything goes up, it's obviously more difficult for poor people simply because they use more of their income. A larger share of their income in order to meet their daily needs. Ok. So now also having taxes go down

can be, can be inflationary too because if, if you've got more money to spend, then you've got more dollars chasing fewer goods and, and then you, and that can be inflationary as well. Not nearly as, as bad an effect as tariffs could be. But uh that, that could also be inflationary.

Ok. So with, with all these things in mind, right, we talked about how it's going to affect my money and my life.

What should I be doing now

to either get ready or, or just to hold tight? What, what are your thoughts, Stacey?

Well, I can

tell you what I'm doing right now and that's not a damn thing. I mean, you know, I, I haven't been taking it. I wish I'd put more money in the market before the election. And by the way, another thing that makes this, making the market up too and would, it would have had the same effect on a Harris victory, is that uncertainty? You know, because, I mean, hey,

we were all thinking, not, maybe all of us thinking, but it wouldn't have been a huge shock if there was violence after this election. Uh, and, and so, and, and it could have carried on for weeks or months. Right. So that's another reason the stock market is sigh of relief. Uh, anyway, what, what I'm doing is not, not a thing, I'm keeping my, I'm keeping my thing, my stocks where they are and I'm happy about that.

Uh, and also, you know, as far as interest rates go, I have a lot of money in money markets and interest rates have been going up and by the way, keep an eye on the bond market, even if you're not a bond buyer. And I assume Kim at your age you're not. Uh, but if you look at the treasury market

and you can do that on C NBC, any number of websites, just look up what the two years is doing and the five year, the 10 year treasuries are doing. Uh And, and that's gonna tell you where interest rates are going. And the reason I mentioned that is because interest rates are anticipating inflation. Uh And also we've got a huge deficit which neither candidate addressed at all. And what happens when you have deficits when the government's spending more than it makes.

Uh it's borrowing money and the amount of interest it's paying on that debt is if it hasn't surpassed yet, it's about to surpass the amount of money we spend on Social Security and, and, and um defense, I mean, it's getting huge, the amount of money that we're spending just on

carrying this debt. So anyway, keep an eye on interest rates.

And the reason I say that is because the stock market can keep going up and it should, we, we've got a great economy, like I said, at the outset of this Trump inherited a great economy. Nothing is wrong with it at all. It's growing. The, the inflation rate is, is back down to where it was and the unemployment rate is near a historical low. It's a great economy. But if interest rates keep going up, then that means that that's gonna hurt stocks. High, interest rates are bad for stocks.

And why are, why is that? Because if I can earn five percent on money market with no risk whatsoever, why would I buy into an overpriced stock market? Right. So that's why even if you're not a bond investor, keep an eye on interest rates.

Yeah, I'll keep that in mind. I, I, like you said, you know, I'm not even looking at bonds right now.

So I just bought my first bond, you know, a couple of years ago when rates went up

and I, but I still have a lot of money in the money market. I'm going to be kind of sorry to see interest rates drop. But let me also tell you this, interest rates aren't going back to nothing. They're not because of the size of the deficit and because of the unwillingness of either party to really substantially address it, uh, that, that's going to crowd out. I mean, the government's borrowing so much money that they have to keep paying higher and higher interest rates or else no one will take their, will lend them money.

So that's gonna, that's gonna keep a lid on, on lower, lower rates rather. So you're gonna have higher rates. I think I'm not saying higher, they're gonna go lower. In fact, they're probably being dropped as we speak. But, you know, like 4% they're not gonna go back down to zero. They may go as low as 3% for short term, but for short term borrowings, but they're not gonna go back to zero like they were. And that's good news if you're a saver, but just once, if interest rates keep going up too much, it's gonna hurt the stock market.

Got it. That's good to know

any other questions. I don't know. I can't get my stop. I have no

idea how long now, I think you gave me a clear, a clear path. That's don't do anything right now, you know, hold tight, you know, and, you know, tomorrow's another day, it doesn't sound so scary actually.

And, you know, the world has always been a scary place. It's never not been.

And this, this may feel particularly scary to some people. In fact, I would, I would hesitate a guess to say to a lot of people, the world seems like a scary place now. But I can tell you many, many times in my long, long life that the world has seemed a scary place and the idea is just keep on keeping on if you're, if you're doing dollar cost the average and keep doing it and, and don't freak out too much. Do you pay attention though? That's what make you money?

Well, thank you, Stacy for your time. You

bet you. And with that, I guess I'm sure we've talked to at least 10 minutes. So we'll go ahead and sign off, folks. Make sure that you follow us on. First of all, you subscribe to the Money Talks newsletter. You follow us on youtube, you follow us on social media. What, what would be on social media, Kim?

We are

on pretty much everything, Facebook, Instagram X uh parenthesis, Twitter.

And if you really want to get in touch, we, you can also find us on linkedin if you really want to go there.

Yeah. And if you want to talk to me, hello at Money Talks news.com, you can send us an email anytime and

Stacy is very, very active on our Facebook uh Money Talks news retirement group. So find us there as well. We're

just everywhere,

Kim. We are.

Hey, you guys have a great day and we're gonna see you right here next time. Thanks.

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