Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Merrin Talks Money weekly round up, our debrief on the biggest stories in markets and economics. I'm Merin Sum's web editor at large for Bloomberg UK.

Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Welcome to the Merrin Talks Money weekly round up, our debrief on the biggest stories in markets and economics. I'm Merin Sum's web editor at large for Bloomberg UK.

Wealth, and I'm joined Stoviks, senior port and author of the Money Distilled newsletter.

Wealth, and I'm joined Stoviks, senior port and author of the Money Distilled newsletter.

John Exciting Times. I'm an exciting Times all round. But this week we have a guest, and not just any guest, Butjmen. We are both great fans of John, author's senior editor for Market and opinion columnist at Bloomberg. He also has a brilliant daily newsletter, Points of Return, which I read avidly and plagiarize, and so does John. Of course, John with chief Markets commentary at the FT, where he and I first met, and he is the author of the Fearful Rise of Markets.

John Exciting Times. I'm an exciting Times all round. But this week we have a guest, and not just any guest, Butjmen. We are both great fans of John, author's senior editor for Market and opinion columnist at Bloomberg. He also has a brilliant daily newsletter, Points of Return, which I read avidly and plagiarize, and so does John. Of course, John with chief Markets commentary at the FT, where he and I first met, and he is the author of the Fearful Rise of Markets.

John.

John.

Welcome, Well, it's great to be here. I nearly my pink shirt from an FT alumni gathering. I guess it's delight to hear your voicing in May.

Welcome, Well, it's great to be here. I nearly my pink shirt from an FT alumni gathering. I guess it's delight to hear your voicing in May.

Now listen John, before John, John Orthur's I ask you some questions. I just want to give our John John staffagant opportunity to do something that actually he can do more often than you'd think, and that is to take part in the I Told you So section of this podcast, John.

Now listen John, before John, John Orthur's I ask you some questions. I just want to give our John John staffagant opportunity to do something that actually he can do more often than you'd think, and that is to take part in the I Told you So section of this podcast, John.

Ah, yeah, yeah, you see.

Ah, yeah, yeah, you see.

I'm actually slightly embarrassed to say this in front of join authors, because I know that he would never do anything in his crass or a hostage to fortune. There's making predictions in the newsletter. But so mid December, just after Donald Trump had appeared on the cover of Time magazine and rang the bell in the New York Stock Exchange, I tentatively suggested that there would probably be a ten percent correction within three months on the US market, and lo and be old, we're here.

I'm actually slightly embarrassed to say this in front of join authors, because I know that he would never do anything in his crass or a hostage to fortune. There's making predictions in the newsletter. But so mid December, just after Donald Trump had appeared on the cover of Time magazine and rang the bell in the New York Stock Exchange, I tentatively suggested that there would probably be a ten percent correction within three months on the US market, and lo and be old, we're here.

We supplaud for that.

We supplaud for that.

Thank you, thank you, thank you.

Thank you, thank you, thank you.

This did look like a crescendo of sentiment. I mean it felt a little bit that way, but you were too nervous to say well, I was too nervous to say so at the time. But yes, that was a crescendo of sentiment.

This did look like a crescendo of sentiment. I mean it felt a little bit that way, but you were too nervous to say well, I was too nervous to say so at the time. But yes, that was a crescendo of sentiment.

John got the timing right, whereas I've just spent the last five years proticting a ten percent correction in any second. Now, So John, John, when does one because he got the timing rights, Well, do I actually say, why didn't you actually say I told you so. It'll make you feel so good.

John got the timing right, whereas I've just spent the last five years proticting a ten percent correction in any second. Now, So John, John, when does one because he got the timing rights, Well, do I actually say, why didn't you actually say I told you so. It'll make you feel so good.

God, just let me I told you so. There we go.

God, just let me I told you so. There we go.

Well then feels good, right, John John Al says that isn't me. Yeah, you have had a ringside seat. I gather that you've been in Frankfurt recently. Tell us all about it.

Well then feels good, right, John John Al says that isn't me. Yeah, you have had a ringside seat. I gather that you've been in Frankfurt recently. Tell us all about it.

Yes, this was very lucky last week because there was an ECB meeting. Because I hadn't been to Germany since the pandemic. I thought, as I was on this side of Atlantic anyway, this was a good opportunity to catch up in Frankfurt. So I arrived Tuesday night and new likely next chancellor Mets and the Social Democrats have just announced looking to borrow an extra nine hundred billion euros. And that, yeah, Wednesday and Thursday where some of the most remarkable days of my career. In that obviously, your average German financier is not exactly given to overstatement. These aren't voluble, excitable people. And they were saying, without you know, without any kind of cynicism or sarcasm, that this might even be bigger than the fall of the Berlin Wall, that this was a complete total paradigm changer. You could forget all the research that had this from a couple of people say, just don't ignore my research for the last year or so. It's it's inoperative. So it is that big of a deal. There's there's there's two elements to it. One is and this is something I'm British myself. I certainly know I have a particular reaction to some of the things JD. Vans has said in the last few weeks, but in Germany it hits very much more painfully still. And I think the combination of what he said at the Munich conference and the way he bullied Voladimir Zelenski and I didn't know. I couldn't find anybody who thought anything other than the way they treated as Zelenski was disgraceful. It just seemed to be a completely uniform reaction among often generally quite politically conservative and more generally small sy conservative people that the US had just very plainly broken broken off, that they could no longer trust them, and in some ways that was it's even more of a compact that's been broken in their perception than was broken when the wall came down, which ended this division of the country and all those other exciting things and then when it comes to financially, which is why all these I was talking to barely had any sleep, and where they were so excited. You know, you know, the bundmarket has been telling Germany for years that it can borrow more, and indeed that it should borrow more. It's the only major advanced economy that isn't borrowing enough that anybody could possibly say with a straight face, isn't borrowing enough. And most of these people had sort of again it was like, well, of course it'd be fantastic if the East reunited in the same way. Of course it would be nice if Germany actually borrowed some money and did away with this debt break. But it was almost regarded as an academic possibility that economists would lord would say was a good idea, but that was never going to happen. And somehow or other, just the extremity of the you know, the words and actions of Donald Trump and JD. Vance in the space of a couple of weeks really did does seem to have sparked as big as shit in the paradigm, as as anything said anything we saw when the wall came down. I mean, I mean, if you'd like to talk about the more marketing things they related to it. We've got lots of thoughts on that as well, but that was my main human reaction.

Yes, this was very lucky last week because there was an ECB meeting. Because I hadn't been to Germany since the pandemic. I thought, as I was on this side of Atlantic anyway, this was a good opportunity to catch up in Frankfurt. So I arrived Tuesday night and new likely next chancellor Mets and the Social Democrats have just announced looking to borrow an extra nine hundred billion euros. And that, yeah, Wednesday and Thursday where some of the most remarkable days of my career. In that obviously, your average German financier is not exactly given to overstatement. These aren't voluble, excitable people. And they were saying, without you know, without any kind of cynicism or sarcasm, that this might even be bigger than the fall of the Berlin Wall, that this was a complete total paradigm changer. You could forget all the research that had this from a couple of people say, just don't ignore my research for the last year or so. It's it's inoperative. So it is that big of a deal. There's there's there's two elements to it. One is and this is something I'm British myself. I certainly know I have a particular reaction to some of the things JD. Vans has said in the last few weeks, but in Germany it hits very much more painfully still. And I think the combination of what he said at the Munich conference and the way he bullied Voladimir Zelenski and I didn't know. I couldn't find anybody who thought anything other than the way they treated as Zelenski was disgraceful. It just seemed to be a completely uniform reaction among often generally quite politically conservative and more generally small sy conservative people that the US had just very plainly broken broken off, that they could no longer trust them, and in some ways that was it's even more of a compact that's been broken in their perception than was broken when the wall came down, which ended this division of the country and all those other exciting things and then when it comes to financially, which is why all these I was talking to barely had any sleep, and where they were so excited. You know, you know, the bundmarket has been telling Germany for years that it can borrow more, and indeed that it should borrow more. It's the only major advanced economy that isn't borrowing enough that anybody could possibly say with a straight face, isn't borrowing enough. And most of these people had sort of again it was like, well, of course it'd be fantastic if the East reunited in the same way. Of course it would be nice if Germany actually borrowed some money and did away with this debt break. But it was almost regarded as an academic possibility that economists would lord would say was a good idea, but that was never going to happen. And somehow or other, just the extremity of the you know, the words and actions of Donald Trump and JD. Vance in the space of a couple of weeks really did does seem to have sparked as big as shit in the paradigm, as as anything said anything we saw when the wall came down. I mean, I mean, if you'd like to talk about the more marketing things they related to it. We've got lots of thoughts on that as well, but that was my main human reaction.

That reaction is great, but we would definitely like to hear about the market reactions. You know, said the amount of time that American exceptionalism and now we see the huge burst of money about it and pour into Germany at the same time as America is pulling back. Exceptionalism is really about money. Are we about to move into a decade or two of German exceptionalism or European exceptionalism.

That reaction is great, but we would definitely like to hear about the market reactions. You know, said the amount of time that American exceptionalism and now we see the huge burst of money about it and pour into Germany at the same time as America is pulling back. Exceptionalism is really about money. Are we about to move into a decade or two of German exceptionalism or European exceptionalism.

Not being as not being quite as bold as John Steppeck. I'm not going to predict that with total confidence. There are some interesting parallels though, in terms of you and I being boring and talking about value all the time. There is this fascinating combination that outside of the Magnificent Seven and the US more or less, the whole planet has looked like a fairly decent value but Germany in particular, so the German economy is not doing anything great, but a lot of the big German companies they're on a smaller scale, but they're actually generating profits as nicely as they ever did. So if you buy the stock, you find that that the pees are still very, very generous. So if you look at what's happened to I had fun. This was in one of the recent newsletters. European value has outperformed US growth if you believe MSCI, by thirty seven percent since Christmas Eve, so less than three months. There is this sudden sense of Okay, it's time to look for value. There was the catalyst that that value guys always want suddenly r particularly in Germany. Germany happens to be where there are a lot of absolutely value stocks where you really can put some kind of evaluation, fundamental valuation on them because it's all stuff, it's all equipment and things they make. And so you've seen this very dramatic rise. Now you've got to be careful comparing the Magnificent seventh phenomenon and the you know, the AI with dot Com, because dot Com really was absurd and this may turn out to be absurd. But in terms of the valuations, I don't think it's it is something qualitatively different. But if you look this was a chart I think it was Andy Lapthorne of Sockgen, who's one of my favorite quant analysts, brought to my attention, and then I reconstructed it in about thirty seconds on the on the Bloomberg. So really it was genuinely he hadn't done any If you look at the stocks chemicals sector relative to the S and P five hundred information technology sector, from March two thousand until the global financial crisis, chemicals outperforms US TECH by about four hundred five hundred percent. They went, they traveled, Tech was down still about forty to fifty percent by the time you get to the crisis. By the turn of this year, they had given all of that back and US tech had finally matched US European chemicals companies. It would have been better off is BASF than Microsoft. Well, I'm not sure about BOSF RRIS. You would have been better off in BASF than a tech US TECH index for most of the last twenty years, twenty five years. So is there a precedent for when money finally is jolted into moving when there is this big catalyst, boring German companies making you far more money than sexy American tech companies. Yes, there is. That was a seven or eight year rally. If you were a bit late, never mind you still it's it's a it's a nice perfect, you know, diagonal, upward sloping line, and that you know there was room for more as you as you piled in, and you go on about this as much as I do. These German stocks started really cheap, and the concern for years has been that their value traps. But again, these are things that make stuff. They're not as intangible as you know that you do have something to grab hold of here. They are worth something. They've got these big factories. So anyway that I I'm inherently careful about being too positive. And there are lots of things that you know, the history of large European power rearmaments isn't good, shall we say it's not? So? There are plenty So in answer to the question what could possibly go wrong? I think we know there are some pretty scary answers to that question. But cautiously, yes, I am quite a believer. In terms of the sentiment, the sheer excitement combined with the absolute financial logic that's been there for years, this is quite interesting.

Not being as not being quite as bold as John Steppeck. I'm not going to predict that with total confidence. There are some interesting parallels though, in terms of you and I being boring and talking about value all the time. There is this fascinating combination that outside of the Magnificent Seven and the US more or less, the whole planet has looked like a fairly decent value but Germany in particular, so the German economy is not doing anything great, but a lot of the big German companies they're on a smaller scale, but they're actually generating profits as nicely as they ever did. So if you buy the stock, you find that that the pees are still very, very generous. So if you look at what's happened to I had fun. This was in one of the recent newsletters. European value has outperformed US growth if you believe MSCI, by thirty seven percent since Christmas Eve, so less than three months. There is this sudden sense of Okay, it's time to look for value. There was the catalyst that that value guys always want suddenly r particularly in Germany. Germany happens to be where there are a lot of absolutely value stocks where you really can put some kind of evaluation, fundamental valuation on them because it's all stuff, it's all equipment and things they make. And so you've seen this very dramatic rise. Now you've got to be careful comparing the Magnificent seventh phenomenon and the you know, the AI with dot Com, because dot Com really was absurd and this may turn out to be absurd. But in terms of the valuations, I don't think it's it is something qualitatively different. But if you look this was a chart I think it was Andy Lapthorne of Sockgen, who's one of my favorite quant analysts, brought to my attention, and then I reconstructed it in about thirty seconds on the on the Bloomberg. So really it was genuinely he hadn't done any If you look at the stocks chemicals sector relative to the S and P five hundred information technology sector, from March two thousand until the global financial crisis, chemicals outperforms US TECH by about four hundred five hundred percent. They went, they traveled, Tech was down still about forty to fifty percent by the time you get to the crisis. By the turn of this year, they had given all of that back and US tech had finally matched US European chemicals companies. It would have been better off is BASF than Microsoft. Well, I'm not sure about BOSF RRIS. You would have been better off in BASF than a tech US TECH index for most of the last twenty years, twenty five years. So is there a precedent for when money finally is jolted into moving when there is this big catalyst, boring German companies making you far more money than sexy American tech companies. Yes, there is. That was a seven or eight year rally. If you were a bit late, never mind you still it's it's a it's a nice perfect, you know, diagonal, upward sloping line, and that you know there was room for more as you as you piled in, and you go on about this as much as I do. These German stocks started really cheap, and the concern for years has been that their value traps. But again, these are things that make stuff. They're not as intangible as you know that you do have something to grab hold of here. They are worth something. They've got these big factories. So anyway that I I'm inherently careful about being too positive. And there are lots of things that you know, the history of large European power rearmaments isn't good, shall we say it's not? So? There are plenty So in answer to the question what could possibly go wrong? I think we know there are some pretty scary answers to that question. But cautiously, yes, I am quite a believer. In terms of the sentiment, the sheer excitement combined with the absolute financial logic that's been there for years, this is quite interesting.

Yeah, And I suppose one thing says that the money has barely started to move. I mean it doesn't you think about the weight of money that has gone into the US market over the last decade, and then the constant removal of money from Europe and UK markets. It really doesn't take much of a cheft for things to really start moving as.

Yeah, And I suppose one thing says that the money has barely started to move. I mean it doesn't you think about the weight of money that has gone into the US market over the last decade, and then the constant removal of money from Europe and UK markets. It really doesn't take much of a cheft for things to really start moving as.

A scene and has begun. Take ten percent out of your mag seven ETF and put it into a stocks industrial's ETF and that will move things very quickly. Yes, the cemetery as well.

A scene and has begun. Take ten percent out of your mag seven ETF and put it into a stocks industrial's ETF and that will move things very quickly. Yes, the cemetery as well.

Between you know, we've we've lived in a world where almost everyone's been told but intangibles and digital and everything being clean. It's the same sort of thing that ed coin me goes on a boot with the material world thesis and so having that sort of perfect between stuff and you know, digitization, it's actually quite It's just another one of those fun market things that you see all the time.

Between you know, we've we've lived in a world where almost everyone's been told but intangibles and digital and everything being clean. It's the same sort of thing that ed coin me goes on a boot with the material world thesis and so having that sort of perfect between stuff and you know, digitization, it's actually quite It's just another one of those fun market things that you see all the time.

And nobody has ever mentioned anything about whether AI could help rhyne metal, which is up something like six hundred percent, you know to the biggest German arms manufacturer. We know why, but nobody's suggested, well, with AI they can improve their profitability bits. Maybe they can bit I don't know, but it's this is just completely external to any great risk about the whole AI play.

And nobody has ever mentioned anything about whether AI could help rhyne metal, which is up something like six hundred percent, you know to the biggest German arms manufacturer. We know why, but nobody's suggested, well, with AI they can improve their profitability bits. Maybe they can bit I don't know, but it's this is just completely external to any great risk about the whole AI play.

Oh yeah, and also I mean we've seen the I think that's is the other thing, because people get weirdly sort of scared whenever a ton comes and they'll have a mester ton And then you say, oh, yeah, no, but remember that the take bubble has lasted for about ten years so but actually probably just very near the beginning of a secular trend, rather than you know, okay, we've already messed because Bee Systems is up you know, x percent or whatever in the last six months. So no, I think.

Oh yeah, and also I mean we've seen the I think that's is the other thing, because people get weirdly sort of scared whenever a ton comes and they'll have a mester ton And then you say, oh, yeah, no, but remember that the take bubble has lasted for about ten years so but actually probably just very near the beginning of a secular trend, rather than you know, okay, we've already messed because Bee Systems is up you know, x percent or whatever in the last six months. So no, I think.

It's all it's all.

It's all it's all.

Part of a wider kind of rotation as well. But it's interesting now you need these catalysts to make these things kick off, because it's you know, we've been talking about for quite a long time, the US has looked expensive for ages and ages and ages. But at that point where something happens to change the politician's behavior, that then catalyzes the shifting flows that you need to see. But things really striking you saying that about the actual sensation on the when the market floor in Frankfurt, rather than you know, because from here you can see it's a big deal. But it hadn't occurred to make the idea about the Germans feeling or we thought we were being the good guys by not spending money on defense, and now you're criticizing this for not spending enough, and that sort of message has finally got through to them.

Part of a wider kind of rotation as well. But it's interesting now you need these catalysts to make these things kick off, because it's you know, we've been talking about for quite a long time, the US has looked expensive for ages and ages and ages. But at that point where something happens to change the politician's behavior, that then catalyzes the shifting flows that you need to see. But things really striking you saying that about the actual sensation on the when the market floor in Frankfurt, rather than you know, because from here you can see it's a big deal. But it hadn't occurred to make the idea about the Germans feeling or we thought we were being the good guys by not spending money on defense, and now you're criticizing this for not spending enough, and that sort of message has finally got through to them.

And currently leave us back to markets briefly and back to the US market. We all believe, actually not all of us, but some people believed that there was a Trump put and that after the S and P five hundred and fall a certain amount that's even to John's forecast level. Yes, some would do something to make it stop. Because he feels that he is judged buy the stock market. It's a measure of his success, certainly was in his first term. Has something changed, sir?

And currently leave us back to markets briefly and back to the US market. We all believe, actually not all of us, but some people believed that there was a Trump put and that after the S and P five hundred and fall a certain amount that's even to John's forecast level. Yes, some would do something to make it stop. Because he feels that he is judged buy the stock market. It's a measure of his success, certainly was in his first term. Has something changed, sir?

I think the way he has continued with tariffs and been as erratic with them has scared quite a number of people that just that the mattra with Trump in the markets has been look at what he does rather than he says, so he can say as many outrageous things as he likes. Basically, the first time around, he was a fairly orthodox George W. George H. W. Bush style conservative Republican did things the can Chamber of Commerce liked, with a few exceptions, but broadly speaking, in terms of what he actually did that was kind of what he was and what he's doing at the moment is absolutely not that about, you know it complete might might have need the word conservative applied to it in some different meaning of the word, but other than that, this is just not not what he did before at all. So I think that did's some damage to the assumption. I think the fact that he started with tariffs at a point when the conversation on taxes hasn't really even started and where they're beginning to realize this is actually going to be pretty tricky to get through Congress because the Democrats badly need this to fail. Obviously they are completely entitled to say no, and the Republicans have no wiggle room at all. So it's from triumphalism to realizing, well, hang on, he hasn't even started doing this, and that's in large part because this is one of the things that's actually going to be difficult to do. Then there was the realization will actually extending the TCGA the big tax cuts from isn't the seventeen Sorry, isn't a tax cut. It's avoiding the tax hike because they expire and then reverse, and then making more cuts from there is going to be really difficult unless you can find some good cuts to the budget. Most sensible people look at the way that Elon Musk is going about his business and do not gain confidence. Obviously, there is an awful lot of waste to be taken out of the federal budget. Surely that must be true. Very few people who have a good understanding of management would think that the way that Elon Musk is currently going about it is the right way. So there's this combination of factors that once you actually see what he's doing, has changed perception. And then on the issue of the put itself, I think it's quite interesting. In some ways this is gain theory. But you've I've seen a number of figures on the the pro Trump right arguing that there shouldn't be a put and that in fact, Donald Trump is about shaking up globalization and capitalism. And the companies that have benefited the most and whose stocks are up the most from globalization are the Magnificent Seven, are the big the companies that make up the bulk of the S and P. And the fact that some people have assets but most of Trump's voters don't means that this is stoked inequality, and so no, Donald Trump actually wants the stock market to go down this time, even though he passionately wanted it to go up last time. I doubt that because so many Americans have four oh one ks and iras and know very quickly if things are going wrong with it, because you get monthly statements. I think that's a little bit like the effect that variable rate mortgages had in the UK for a long time, that politicians need to be somewhat nervous about doing something that takes the stock market down because it will make people feel poorer instantly, in the same way that raising interest rates would make anybody with a house feel poorer instantly. So I question how far to take it, And it's possible that this is just oh sorry. One other point is he does need to get everything done inside two years, because you assume they will lose the house next the end of next year. And there is also this belief that, and this is a perfectly sensible one, actually, that there is a window during which you can blame Biden. Plainly, very little that he has done would be showing up an economic aggregates. Yet you have a few more months in which you can say well, this is just cleaning up Joe Biden's mess, So there isn't there is. Those are valid sort of political strategic arguments for really going for it early, being prepared to suffer a bigger S and P sell off than you otherwise might have done. And and it's like game theories, and it's like a commitment strategy. So we'll see plainly, as the marketers began to fool, people have re examined their belief in the Trump put and have come up with reasons to be nervous about it.

I think the way he has continued with tariffs and been as erratic with them has scared quite a number of people that just that the mattra with Trump in the markets has been look at what he does rather than he says, so he can say as many outrageous things as he likes. Basically, the first time around, he was a fairly orthodox George W. George H. W. Bush style conservative Republican did things the can Chamber of Commerce liked, with a few exceptions, but broadly speaking, in terms of what he actually did that was kind of what he was and what he's doing at the moment is absolutely not that about, you know it complete might might have need the word conservative applied to it in some different meaning of the word, but other than that, this is just not not what he did before at all. So I think that did's some damage to the assumption. I think the fact that he started with tariffs at a point when the conversation on taxes hasn't really even started and where they're beginning to realize this is actually going to be pretty tricky to get through Congress because the Democrats badly need this to fail. Obviously they are completely entitled to say no, and the Republicans have no wiggle room at all. So it's from triumphalism to realizing, well, hang on, he hasn't even started doing this, and that's in large part because this is one of the things that's actually going to be difficult to do. Then there was the realization will actually extending the TCGA the big tax cuts from isn't the seventeen Sorry, isn't a tax cut. It's avoiding the tax hike because they expire and then reverse, and then making more cuts from there is going to be really difficult unless you can find some good cuts to the budget. Most sensible people look at the way that Elon Musk is going about his business and do not gain confidence. Obviously, there is an awful lot of waste to be taken out of the federal budget. Surely that must be true. Very few people who have a good understanding of management would think that the way that Elon Musk is currently going about it is the right way. So there's this combination of factors that once you actually see what he's doing, has changed perception. And then on the issue of the put itself, I think it's quite interesting. In some ways this is gain theory. But you've I've seen a number of figures on the the pro Trump right arguing that there shouldn't be a put and that in fact, Donald Trump is about shaking up globalization and capitalism. And the companies that have benefited the most and whose stocks are up the most from globalization are the Magnificent Seven, are the big the companies that make up the bulk of the S and P. And the fact that some people have assets but most of Trump's voters don't means that this is stoked inequality, and so no, Donald Trump actually wants the stock market to go down this time, even though he passionately wanted it to go up last time. I doubt that because so many Americans have four oh one ks and iras and know very quickly if things are going wrong with it, because you get monthly statements. I think that's a little bit like the effect that variable rate mortgages had in the UK for a long time, that politicians need to be somewhat nervous about doing something that takes the stock market down because it will make people feel poorer instantly, in the same way that raising interest rates would make anybody with a house feel poorer instantly. So I question how far to take it, And it's possible that this is just oh sorry. One other point is he does need to get everything done inside two years, because you assume they will lose the house next the end of next year. And there is also this belief that, and this is a perfectly sensible one, actually, that there is a window during which you can blame Biden. Plainly, very little that he has done would be showing up an economic aggregates. Yet you have a few more months in which you can say well, this is just cleaning up Joe Biden's mess, So there isn't there is. Those are valid sort of political strategic arguments for really going for it early, being prepared to suffer a bigger S and P sell off than you otherwise might have done. And and it's like game theories, and it's like a commitment strategy. So we'll see plainly, as the marketers began to fool, people have re examined their belief in the Trump put and have come up with reasons to be nervous about it.

Yeah, thank you, John, We will see what happens next. You any predictions to leave us with.

Yeah, thank you, John, We will see what happens next. You any predictions to leave us with.

Kind of guessing that you want I think you want the other Jobby.

Kind of guessing that you want I think you want the other Jobby.

Look, if you could come up with the prediction, we'll have you on. We told you so.

Look, if you could come up with the prediction, we'll have you on. We told you so.

The latest University of Michigan survey finds this. They very handily started eight years ago. They started dividing everything by partisanship, so they would give you the data that independents, Republicans, and Democrats reported. And obviously this is because the political identifications now trumped all other aspects. The annual inflation rate expected by Democrats over the next twelve months is I think it did actually top five percent. Forgive me if I'm wrong. It's certainly surged up to a very high number. And the average inflation rate expected by Republicans, I'm absolutely certain certain I remember that this number is exactly zero. The average Republican thinks that inflation is going to be abolished over the next twelve months. My prediction is that that isn't going to happen, that that's wrong, That inflation will be positive over the next twelve months. And I'm really quite happy to book my champagne supper now to celebrate those peer I think you'll find.

The latest University of Michigan survey finds this. They very handily started eight years ago. They started dividing everything by partisanship, so they would give you the data that independents, Republicans, and Democrats reported. And obviously this is because the political identifications now trumped all other aspects. The annual inflation rate expected by Democrats over the next twelve months is I think it did actually top five percent. Forgive me if I'm wrong. It's certainly surged up to a very high number. And the average inflation rate expected by Republicans, I'm absolutely certain certain I remember that this number is exactly zero. The average Republican thinks that inflation is going to be abolished over the next twelve months. My prediction is that that isn't going to happen, that that's wrong, That inflation will be positive over the next twelve months. And I'm really quite happy to book my champagne supper now to celebrate those peer I think you'll find.

I didn't offer you a champagne supper. I offer you the obituary. Really come back on the podcast. Thank you very very much for that and thanks for joining us.

I didn't offer you a champagne supper. I offer you the obituary. Really come back on the podcast. Thank you very very much for that and thanks for joining us.

Really good to have you on.

Really good to have you on.

Thanks for listening to this week's Marriage Dogs, Money dat If you like ushow rate review and subscribe wherever you listen to pods all.

Thanks for listening to this week's Marriage Dogs, Money dat If you like ushow rate review and subscribe wherever you listen to pods all.

They made sure to follow me and John.

They made sure to follow me and John.

On x or Twitter at marinas w and John Underscore Stepics. Also John Author's at John Orthors. This episode was produced by Summersaudi and Moses and Production Sport and sound designed by Blake Maple's keep the emails coming to Merinmoney at Bloomberg Dot Now, and don't forget to subscribe to all of our newsletters.

On x or Twitter at marinas w and John Underscore Stepics. Also John Author's at John Orthors. This episode was produced by Summersaudi and Moses and Production Sport and sound designed by Blake Maple's keep the emails coming to Merinmoney at Bloomberg Dot Now, and don't forget to subscribe to all of our newsletters.