Long Shots: VSiN's Golf Betting PodcastKelley Bydlon and Wes Reynolds preview The Sentry from The Plantation Course at Kapalua in Hawaii. The "signature event" kicks off the 2024 PGA Tour season. Defending champion Jon Rahm went to LIV Golf. The guys give you the course overview and stats that matter. The guys give you all their best bets for The Sentry!
This is long Shots, Visan's premiere golf betting podcasts. Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin.
All right, welcome in and welcome back, baby. It's long Shots, Kelly Bidlin and Wes Reynolds here with you. Matt Brown, he's out, he's out sick this week, he's not gonna be able to make it West. So we're gonna start this week. We're gonna start the year off with the two of us. Hopefully he's back in the saddle next week for the Sony Open. Should be all three of us going forward. Regular long Shot schedule be here every Tuesday, recording the tournament previous for you guys throughout this year, So make sure to check those out wherever you can get wherever you go to download podcasts. Wes and I. Starting with the Century Tournament, the Century Tournament West. Try to count how many times I screw up that today in seast Century Turn.
Well, by the way, and you mentioned that right off the top, we should say this is no longer the Tournament of Champions necessarily where it was all reserve for PGA Tour one for the previous season. They're still here, but they've added more players. If you qualify in the top thirty for the Tour Championship at the end of the FedEx Cup playoffs, and if you make the top fifty of the FedEx Cup standings, you get an invite here. So we have fifty nine players in this event this week.
Yeah, so no, no, is that gonna continue? So is that continuing every year going forward? Or is that just to help bridge this weird year. I would think it's going to continue.
They had the Tour Championship guys in there last year, But yeah, I think that's gonna continue as this is now a elevated or signature event, whatever the proper term is. So yeah, that's that's why you're seeing fifty nine players here. It's usually about thirty or thirty five.
Yeah, I guess that makes sense. I mean, if you're gonna do if you're gonna do multiple these elevated events. Anyways, you already had this one that was a no cut event, right, so easier to add a few more, few more people to it. We'll get to everything for the century here in a minute. It's been a it's been a it's been a few weeks since we last talked to you, maybe a whole month. I don't know about us, but I was when I was first thinking about digging into this tournament, like last week, I was like, man, I could use another month off of golds, right, Yes, But I will say once I started digging into stuff, I'm pretty pumped. Golf is back. I need some sports here to make some money on.
Yeah.
Look, it's obviously Capalua in Maui. Uh you know, a really I think more of a special event this year because it's the first event since the wildfires and you know all the damage I think you had, like a third of the Capelua resort staff had their homes destroyed, So you know, a lot being done in terms of fundraising and promoting awareness that they try to rebuild out there on Maui, specifically at Lahina. So yeah, this carries a different significance. And the weather obviously is going to be beautiful, and you know all the people that are in the cold weather cities across the country are gonna be like, oh God, I wish I was there. You know, they're being like snow and just nasty weather in their backyard. Yeah.
Absolutely. Last year's winner, John Rahm here Wes and I may remember that or not. Yeah, last year's winner not will not be here off to live that happened since we last talked to you guys. And then I guess an update on not having an update on the PGA Tour and PIF coming together here and extending whatever we're creating, whatever deal is gonna lead to whatever super league is going to eventually happen. We think that's been extended. They're deadline right to what the start of the Masters is what they're calling you now with.
Yeah, yeah, they keep extending it.
You know, basically, you know, like these are high level United Nations or Internet negotiations. But as you did mention in early December, John Rahm did sign with Live Golf, and you know it had kind of been rumored for a little while, even though he declared his loyalty about a year before to the PGA Tour. But now that he won the Masters, he's exempting all the Majors for a few more years and the Masters for life. And he's up there in the world rankings enough. I think he's he's number three currently, I believe, so he's up there enough where like not getting world ranking points on Live doesn't hurt him from that standpoint, but it felt like we were going to have a done deal and then maybe live struck back that like, hey, we can take one of your top guys whenever we want because we have this money. So you know, eventually there's going to have to be some kind of of unification and and and I think what the endgame is for the PIF the Public Investment Fund. They want to buy into the PGA Tour because that's their first foray into American sport, and they want to get into all American sports. This isn't just golf, Okay, Eventually the holy grail is, you know, maybe buying an NBA franchise or an NFL size.
So that's Europe.
I think it's coming coming quicker quickly.
This is this is becoming more global, and you're going to have this this group that has these hundreds of billions of dollars. They want to get into American sport and that's their way to kind of become a player on the world stage. And it just feels like it's almost feutile to kind of stop it, even though it doesn't like it doesn't feel right and it doesn't sit right.
Yeah, you just know, this is almost an eventuality.
Yeah, it's feeling inevitable. And if that's you know, if that's the feeling, then I you know, I think that it becomes more understandable as time goes on. Why the PGA Tour is kind of you know, kind of did the you know, struck the deal that they did, or you know, or going to struct strike the deal that they're going to And frankly, I've got a few questions about this west about like what you know, the why hasn't a deal been done yet? Why isn't this all set up? I would say that, like, I think it's more of a positive for golf, you know, for golf fans that want to see everybody back playing golf together. I think it's a positive that, Yes, it's annoying this hasn't been done yet yet. Yes we're looking at an extension to the Masters, But you just said it, man, all the money that the that the Public Investment Fund has, Like if they were sick of this and they were they were done negotiating with the PGA Tour, they'd be pulled out by now already, Like that would have happened already. So I think they are committed to getting something done with the PGA Tour, and so I think for most golf fans, if that's what you're really looking ahead, looking forward to seeing, is all those guys playing together at some point in whatever lead they decided to create together here, I still think there's you should absolutely be holding out hope for that. I think that this I think they would have walked by now and would have said, like you said, hey, we could take your guys whenever the hell we want, like we just did with John Rotten. I think they're in that kind of position if they really wanted to make this a true war, they really could. Between between living the PGA Tour, I think they're more ei their prior priority is getting into the US sports market you're talking about.
And when you also consider this PGA Tour back in December, announced advancing negotiations with a group called the s SSG or whatever it's called, Strategic Sports Group Private Equity Investment. And the guys that are behind that are the Fenway Sports Group which owns the Red Sox and the Penguins and Liverpool and NASCAR team, Fenway Park, and you know you have other members of this venture Capitol Group Arthur Blank, the owner of the Atlanta Falcons, Wick Grossbook, the owner of the Celtics, Mark Lasry of Milwaukee Bucks, Tom Ricketts of the Chicago Cubs, Cohen Private Ventures, which is the New York Mets. So these are like really really wealthy people, but still it feels like it pales in comparison to what the PIF is willing to spend.
Because it does, right, it does like it's crazy. It's crazy, that's what they're all trying to do. So hey, whatever we know more on that front, will update you. But as far as the tour season beginning, we are rolling it into into it just like it's any other year where do have this new adjusted schedule, So that will be interesting for us to navigate through as Betters, as we go through the whole season here, and you're gonna have your live events as well, that will be going on for sure. But as we as we start things, it is in Hawaii, it is in Malai. It's the Century Tournament here, We're gonna have fifty nine players. As Wes just told you, this will be a no cut event. This is at the Plantation at Kapalua. We're all very familiar with that they've been playing this tournament here for a while now. It is a new year. Seventy six hundred yard course parse seventy three is what you're looking at. Zero water danger holes does have ninety three bunkers, fourth most on tour. It is the twelfth longest on tour as well. Plays very easy, though. I'm gonna hand it over to West here for a full course breakdown in a second. What the odds board looks like right now? Scottie Scheffler your favorite plus five to fifty, Victor Hovland nine to one, can't lay and Homa and Morikawa all twelve to one over at DraftKings, Sanders, Schoffley, loud vegue A Obert fourteen to one over at DraftKings, Fitzpatrick Jordan Speed twenty two to one, Hatton Fleetwood, Tom Kim twenty five to one, everybody else thirty to one or longer. Just a reminder recent winners that we have seen here John Rohm last year, Campsmith the year before that. So hey, if you win here, maybe you get to live in right Harris, English in twenty twenty one. Justin Thomas in twenty twenty that was where we did see wind effect that affected this tournament. That is going to be basically the biggest defense for the course that you have to look out for. But West, I'm gonna kick it over to you as you do every single week. You got a great tournament right up, great course right up at Viison dot com break down the course setup for us, sir.
Yeah, and you mentioned just one more thing on the field here fifty nine total, twenty one up the top twenty five, thirty eight of the top fifty in the official World Golf rank. So still a very good field even with the defectors. And by the way, Rory McElroy was eligible, he is not playing. He'll kick off his season, I believe in two weeks in Dubai, as he customarily does over there on the DP World Tour. But in terms of the course, you mentioned it Plantation Course at Capellou Resort, nineteen ninety one, designed by Bill Koor and Ben Crenshaw. It is a rare par seventy three, the only one on the PGA Tour only has three part threes thirty six going out thirty seven coming in seventy five ninety six, twelve longest on tour it played, is the easiest actually last year eleven par fours, but eight of them are four hundred and twenty five yards or shorter. Has a lot of elevation changes, so you do get some uneven lies and even some blind shots into the pens. Ball's going to carry a little bit more than it typically does.
But you mentioned the.
Fairways how wide and generous they are, about fifty yards wide. I think they're the second most wide on the tour. It's all bermuda throughout the course, tea green and including the greens. The greens are actually pretty big to eighty seven hundred square feet on average, that's the largest on the tour. And they're very slow ten and a half on the stint meter, so you're gonna have to have your lag putting in play. A lot of bunkers here ninety three, fourth most on tour, but no water on the layout.
Is susceptible to win, so it will play harder.
But if the wind doesn't blow, these guys are gonna shoot really really low, high twenty unders, maybe even thirty. Hell, we saw thirty four under with gam Smith a couple years ago, so you know what they've done. They did renovate in twenty oh nine, where they laid that Tiffee Eagle bermuda grass, so whi's a little more smoother and has less contours and stuff than normal bermuda. So they did make some changes as I mentioned seventy five ninety six par seventy three. So you know, looking at this course, this is there for the taking and some guys, you know, it's a good place to get the rust off, as Patrick Cantley said, But some guys, if they've been active at least in the November December months, they're not going to be as rusty here for this event.
Yeah. Absolutely, And I think that's a we'll dive into all of it. I think of this, with this being the first tournament of the year, just how we go about uh you know, betting and attacking each one of these different tournaments I think at different times a year. Is always interesting for people to listen to Wes. I don't know how how you attacked him. I think we're usually pretty pretty uh locking step together on stuff like this, but it is a like this is what I'm still holding back a little bit on. This is the this is the first time a lot of these guys are playing. As you mentioned, you're going up against some guys that have been playing, have been fairly active this fall and playing a lot of golf, and some of these guys we haven't seen since last summer. So never an event I get too invested in. Always wanted to like to fire a few outrights on. I do think that there are when you talk, when you talk outright numbers, it's there's some of these guys like we're talking about, haven't been played from since last summer. You don't really know where their games at right, good or bad. So does that create value on the outright margin? I think it does. I assure think it does. So it's one of those It's kind of one of those roller coaster events from an odds standpoint that I always find it interesting to see what odds you get on different guys, finishing positions, matchups. It's a little early in the season for me for me to be jumping into a lot of that, especially in a shortened field event. Right too, we only have fifty nine guys, so that's not stuff I even really looked that much. I might look at some matchups just to see if there's anything to jump out to me.
But and this is where early in the year, maybe do a little bit of research and see, Okay, who's got an equipment change, who's got a caddy change. Sometimes that's for the good, sometimes that's not for the better. So you know, you want to look at you want to look at little things like that and little nuances because sometimes you get equipment change. It's it's tough the first couple of tournaments, yep.
And you know, you guys will hear us if you've listened to the pod the past couple of years. This has really been you know, Matt West and I do a lot of stat modeling when it comes to golfy every every season, each and every tournament that really picks up. I think for us more as we get into the heart of the season, we have more data that's more recent history data to be to really go off of. When you have events like this, it's kind of a hard reset. You've got to look at kind of more longer term data and Wes I still kind of stat model everything, you know, I get that question from people often. I still run models on every every tournam, but it's more sometimes it's more just to kind of back up what I'm I already have in mind. And have some numbers to go off of. I'm not sure if you do the same thing. But when we go really really falling back on those, it's it's when we have more information on these guys and what they've done through the season so far. So you'll at least hear me bring that up more often in you know, a month from now to you know, six weeks from now, two months from now, that kind of time. These first couple of tournaments, it's a little bit more, a little bit more gut feel, a little bit more long term when you look at stats.
Yeah, yeah, like I went more fifty rounds because it's hard to go twenty four thirty six because like some guy, last twenty four rounds at mine only date.
Back to like October.
Some it dates back to maybe like July or August, so you know, depending how active the players are.
So that's why they've heard or something, it would be like a year and a half roun.
Yeah, really, yeah, that's why I think going fifty rounds is really the good baseline. But like in terms of the recent winners here, it's interesting because you have more players it's fifty nine, So keep in mind some of these like I put. I always put the recent winners and what their prices were, what their scores were, So you're gonna see a lot of chalky winners like rom seven to one, Cameron Smith was twenty five, Harrising was thirty three, but Justin Thomas won this at like eleven to two, shofle A twenty two to one, Dustin Johnson fifteen to two. So as you can see, spief won at one year, I think twenty sixteen five to one.
So mostly class players still win this event.
Yeah, and that would be I mean, the easy explanation I guess when I had when when I have to explain that one for people is this is one of the easiest courses that that these guys will play on all year, and you usually don't see this high level of players playing those type of events, right this many of high level players playing those type of events through a PGA Tour season, So yes, it is often it's gonna you're gonna see a lot of those scores from everybody here, but oftentimes this is this is one of those courses where the best guys can win just because they're gonna pour in more birdies than the other guys around. It right, it is one of those. It's one of we rarely see these this quality of player playing in a Birdiefest type event. But like you said, for Patrick can't lay, and a lot of these guys, it's a it's always been the start of the season, so you know, it's usually been the tournament of Champion, so it is a little bit of honor for having won the year before. But this is a perfect course to get your season started off for these guys. You got these wide ass open fairways that are fifty yards long, so a lot of these guys can just take driver and bombit. You talked about the elevation changes sometimes that that kind of helps equal life the distance sometimes, right, you get a roll for some of the shorter hitters out there, but at least for guys that are that are testing things and trying things. If you read quotes from all the golfers, it is man, I'm taking driver off the tee for the most part, and then it's hey, this course is at least interesting and different enough, and a lot with the bunkers involved in the big green complexes like you're talking about that these guys have to get a little creative with shots. Sometimes too, so it does. It does allow I think golfers to get out there and really kind of test of some of their full, you know, full capabilities of what they're entering.
The season with.
And and there is rough here, but it's not really that penal. It's like two to two and a half inches, so you really don't get I mean, you might get some like tricky lies, but it's not like deep stuff, so you really don't get in trouble very much.
Off the tea here.
Yeah, I was, I was gonna stay it for next segment West, but if you did have particular stats that you dug into, I do think that this is Yeah, if you dug into, let's let's go over those. Now. I'll go over the stuff that I just looked at. I didn't really tweak, but much of my model or munch of the stacks they looked at from last year because Wes and I might have had called Moore to cow that was looking really damn good.
Six snick shot lead and at one point led by seven. John Rahm, by the way, to win that tournament had to shoot ten under. It's incredible, But Mari Kawa makes that bogey stretch on the back nine Bogie's three in a row.
I thought we were going to start out with the winner.
I'm like, this is this is you never want to count it because you never really know, and it was a lesson learned if you do do.
That, because it's never over.
But boy, I was feeling pretty good that that was going to be a winner in the first e end of the season.
Then it ended up not being.
I mean that was like that was like me and Wes had cash tickets and we were walking out to our car in the parking lot of John Rahm with a mask and a crow bar just came at our Yeah, it took all our money away. Man. That it was a rough start, man, I know you ended up having a better season to be I don't really know if if I don't want to say I mentally got got stuck in that from that from that second place finish. But oh man, the second places didn't stop coming for me after that one. So it is it is one that for sure, I'm looking to get over it. That's right year. I would love to get over it and get over it with a win here early. That would be really nice. As far as stats that I did look at it to look at some off the tea driving distance stuff. Again, this is a real really long course, wide open fairways. Distance definitely doesn't hurt you here, not one that I think is overly crucial though, just because of the some of the terrain that's gonna give you. Some of these guys that are are shorter hit or some kicks kick forward a little bit, stroke cane approach. Definitely looked at that some different proximity buckets I think you are looking at. You know, everybody's gonna be hit a lot of wedges here, so right, so even less than one hundred yards, I think it's important to look at one hundred hundred and twenty five and then also on the long end, so two hundred plus. Yeah, we had a lot of par fours here, so I think when you're getting some of those longer par fours, you are gonna see those long irons coming to play. You're gonna get scoring here. So opportunities gain birdies are better. Gain definitely ones that I had in my model here this week. Strokes came on the par fives and the par fours. You gotta be you gotta be hitting birdie, your eagle on the par fives. In the par fours. There's eleven of them right west, so you got I mean, that's the bulk of what you're seeing out there. You got to attack the par fours and make some birdies there. Big green complexes. You've probably heard me say it's ten thousand times on this pod before. But if we're ever talking about big green complexes, I'm always gonna look at three putt avoidance. Try to take that out. You want them. You want someone just like opportunities get. You want someone that's gonna hit this, hit the ball close to the pin, hopefully one or two putting you're in. And then strokes game putting on Bermuda. It's not you're not often gonna hear me talking about strokes game putting, but I think when you are dealing with an all Bermuda course like this Bermuda greens, we do know these guys that typically do better on Bermuda. I did punch those in Wes. What did you look at this week?
Same here, Bob Birdie or better gained approach. And then the proximities that you mentioned two hundred plus and seventy five to one hundred, I think you're gonna get that you're gonna get a lot of wedge shots here from one hundred yards. And in driving distance gained is what I looked at. Driving distance is like nine yards longer here on average over the last five years compared Danny PGA Tour events, So the accuracy not all that crucial here par five scoring strokes gained Bermuda putting, I looked at bogie avoidance and you could use three putt as well. I looked at bogie avoidance because these are big greens, so you know, it feels like you're almost going to be scrambling for birdies instead of scrambling for pars. But you still got to be I think, a pretty good lag putter here, because you know, there may be times it's a little bit tricky when you're outside of twenty feet.
So greens I think are a little less tricky.
Than they used to be since they relayed those greens in twenty nineteen with the tiff Eagles. So you get a lot of the contours kind of out of the green, but still very slow at ten and a half on the step.
Yeah, and we'll I you know, I think if there were if this was a different type of tournament, we expected, some tighter scores and some worst of scores, like look this is yes, are there a lot of bunkers here? There are are these green complexes interesting around the greens? Yeah they are. I didn't punch it. I didn't really look at any of that stuff though, West. We know this is a birdie fest. If you're going to be if you're stuck in the sand or not hitting greens, you're in trouble here. I mean, we saw what we saw these scores, you know, a scores that Gen Bron put on the final day last year. We saw what camp Smith did the year before that. This is a tournament that you have to be making birdies at. It's not just pars and birdies. It is birdies are better really that you've got to be making it this tournament. So I don't even know that some of that stuff is really worth looking at because you're probably just looking at You're looking at a guy who's gonna end up finishing the middle of the road, and that's not really anything right, All right, Wes, let's take a quick break. When we come back, we'll go over all of our bets for the century.
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All right, welcome back to long shots, Kelly Bidlin, Wes Reynolds. Here a reminder to follow us on x or you might know it better as Twitter. At least I still do at Kelly Bidlin for me at Wes Reynolds one. Are we still at Wes Renolds one?
We are? Yeah?
Okay, there we go at Wes Renolds one. He'll never change it. Why would he? Well of the best golf betters out there. Follow him on to x Twitter. Ask him all the questions that you want. Wes loves answering, loves answering questions. And Matt at Matt Brown m two. I believe this is It is so bad that I have like all your guys memorized. It's really bad. That's what YEA, so producing you guys for years does to my brain. All right, that's for the century. My man, where did you start with on your card?
Well, we mentioned him. I'm going to go with him again. I'm prepared to get hurt again. Colin Marakwa twelve to one ended his There we go.
I can't, I can't be for Matt, but we're already there. I'm gonna. I'm gonna. I'm gonna jump in front of you real quick West. Because is it a pure Foamo bet or a bet you would still make if he didn't get if you didn't get robbed last year?
A little bit of both, A little.
Bit admittedly me too, admittedly me too.
Yes, because look he he he ended his two year winless drought. Because remember he was gonna end his drought this year or last year right at this event, didn't happen. Finally won in October at the Zozo Championship. Uh, and we we know what happened.
Uh.
You know he gave it away and and John rom was right there to take it and went and grabbed it. But if you look at marikawis for him here seventh and twenty twenty seventh and twenty twenty one, fifth and twenty twenty two, second and twenty twenty three. So this is a guy that you would expect is going to be up there on Sunday. I think the events carries a little special significance for him this year, considering he did have the family ties to Maui, his grandparents who stone that restaurant out there in the nineteen fifties, nineteen sixties, and a lot of these homes that got tore up and these businesses. Remember for college basketball, they didn't have the Maui Invitational in Maui at the line of Civic Center. They had it in Honolulu where the University of Hawaii is because they had to.
So this is like the first big.
Event back on the islands, back in Mali, back at Kapalua. So I think that this is special for Marikawa Marikau. Actually, last time he played at the Hero World Challenge, Kanakata got himself into like a little bit of a rules discrepancy, if you will.
Matthew Fitzpatrick.
I don't think Matthew Pittatrick was a tattletale, but he was pointing something out.
There was some kind of rule. You can read up on it.
But you know, maybe that makes him a little bit ticked off coming into the first event, you know, and have a little chip on your shoulder, and plus with the scar tissue from last year.
Yeah, I was gonna say I'd be often embarrassed to know for a year, Agil that's me.
Sure, Yeah, absolutely so Mari Kawa twelve to one about that too.
I don't have much else to add on it. I think you pretty much hit everything. I think statistically with everything that I was looking at. You're still talking about a top five guy in by models that you're talking about. So yes, even if it was not for the fact that we lost on Morikawa last year, I would be betting him again this year.
Yeah.
It is mentally a little bit of both, like we said at the beginning, but I would be betting him again this year. I would recommend him at the number one.
Yeah, and I'm willing to bet these guys at the same price range as like Ludwig Obert.
Yes.
Soho by the way, probably the hottest player in the game over the last three or four months, but never has played here before. Usually a debutante that you can play well, but you don't usually win here. So that's why I'm willing to take Marikawa and another guy at that number at fourteen to one is his Ryder Cup teammate and partner Max Homa at fourteen, who plays his best golf on the West Coast swing, six PG Tour wins, four of them in the state of California. Also has played well here before. He was third here last year, actually behind Rom and Morikawa.
Played very well.
He was probably maybe the only bright spot on the US Ryder Cup team, tied for low overall scorer with Victor Hoveland, ed Terrell Hatton, and won the net Bak Golf Challenge last November in South Africa. So you know he has played winning golf. So Max Homa fourteen to one, Tom Kim at twenty five to one, who was fifth here last year, stayed busy in the fall, played a few DP World Tour events of course, defended out here in Las Vegas at the Shriners back to back. He actually has a new caddy on the bag because Ludvig Gobert took Joe Scavern from him. Joe Scavern was the guy that worked with Vicky Fowler for about thirteen years. So now Kim has to take another caddy and he grabs Daniel Parrott from his spell soft Korean kh Lee. So man, you get this caddy drama, man, you know.
Always one of that stuff works.
I know, I just I just happened to see it.
But you know, like Tom Kibb's an old player, no, you know what I mean, Like, and sometimes we see that, right, And that makes sense when a guy's been Yeah, you know you might be able to help me out with an example here, but you like, with so much been on the bag for someone for fifty eight years and they're not doing much anymore and they want to move to a younger guy. I think that always makes sense, right Tom KiB Like, this is supposed to be one of the most exciting young golfers on tour.
He's not on the dcline.
And that's a point that I made in the ride up in the column that'll be up later this afternoon at Visa dot Com. I think maybe lots of fire under him because he was like the young, upstart, early twenty something darling a year ago, right, you know, and.
Now it's lude big Obert, you.
Know, who won the VP World Tour event and then won the finale at the RSM down in Sea Island. Uh So you know, Tom cam is like, I'm like, what he's like, what twenty two years old?
He's not?
This isn't like.
When Ted Scott left Bubba Watson, who is a declining there, you know, to go to Scottie Scheffler or somebody like that. So Tomkim twenty five to one one kind of a long shot. I also considered Tom Hogy. I'm gonna play him probably in like a placement market. He's in the like the one seventies. But Cam Davis is a guy like that. I actually found at eighty to one. I think he's kind of like sixty six in the market average.
What happened?
No, you're just gonna make me better. Me know, you know much money I've just burnt away on cam Davis over the past couple.
Yeah, I know, but there's a couple of good reasons for it, which I'll point out here. He added, you know, he's trying to add his name to the list of Ausse's that have won here. Stuart Appleby's won here three times, Jeff Oglevie twice, Cameron Smith.
Two years ago. One of the reasons why the.
Aussees tend to do pretty well here, not just here, but early on, whether it's at the Sony Open or you know, at the Farmer's Insurance Open. The Bob Hope or someplace like that, Bob Hope. Now the American Express, of course, is because they play in December, because they played those big Australian events, the Australian PGA and the Australian Open, you know, late December, early to mid November.
So they're sharp.
Usually immediately, and they don't have the rust some of these other guys have had that have played like one time in like ten the final ten weeks of the calendar year. So Cam Davis, by the way, if you look at his last nine worldwide starts, six top tens and a twelve, So seven top twelves are better in nine starts, and that goes back to the late summer. So this guy's playing really good golf. Tenth on debut here two years ago, was ninth a couple of years ago at the Sony Open at Wilei, so he's comfortable on the island.
So I thought he need to one.
Even though you don't get a lot of really longer shots win here, I thought he kind of stood out amongst the bigger price guys.
Yeah, don't get me wrong. I mean I'll go over my card in a second here, but it's it's some shorter shots and some longer shots. I kind of avoided the middle of the card. But yeah, but like I think that there's good numbers theoretically on some guys there that I just haven't seen in six months, you know what I mean? So what else? Yeahe' is that everything?
That is everything?
A couple matchups I played, and I'm gonna put matchups and maybe a couple placements up at Visa dot com the picks page on Wednesday.
Well, I think he just talked me into a top ten on Camp Davis.
I think that's how No, no, I probably will use that too.
The only matchups I played, I played Tom Hogy plus one fifty over Chris Kirk. I did play Xander Schaffle minus one thirty five over Ludwig Obert. Ludwig is actually getting faded in the matchup market. We'll see if if that's right. But he's matched up against Homa, can't lay and Schoffle, like these are different levels of player. Hell yeah, now that he is being matched up against and he's getting faded because he hasn't played here before. So he's a guy that I would think could could struggle here. By the way, there are a few different debutants here, Tommy Fleetwood, Yeah, Tommy Fleetwood playing here for the first time, because these are elevated events. Because usually some of these Europeans like Fleetwood, Tyrrollhatton playing here for the first time, they usually start in Abu Dhabi here, they usually start in Dubai over on the world where Wyndham Clark is playing here for the first time. I'm just looking down Danny McCarthy, Eric Cole, a few others. I'm just scrolling down on my board here, Matt Wallace, Benny On, you know, the Norman at I'm at pat Rogers. So a lot of these debutants because I went through some trends. Some of them were mine, some of them from Ron Close at PGA splits one oh one on Twitter, and if you look, guys that win here typically experienced, typically at least have a start under their belt here. So I have a bunch of lists of trends.
That's that's, you know, I will say, because I didn't bring it up earlier, I don't think this is definitely you're You're not gonna hear me reference tournament history outside of you know, course history, outside of like the Masters, you know, and probably a dozen other tournaments throughout the season that I think, and I think it's extremely important or way more important than recent form. This is one that is for sure. Ye yes, I absolutely, I absolutely am more comfortable if I'm looking at making a bet on a guy, a guy who's at least teed it up here before, because it's yes, it's different playing in a Hi, Yes, it's different playing at this course, but then you know teed up before, and yeah, if they've done well here before, then absolutely at least gives you something as you're going into a tournament to start the year that you at least know a guy who's played well.
And to add to that, I think it's fourteen for fourteen the last fourteen years has at least played one time here at Capitol. In terms of the winners, thirteen and the fourteen had at least three PGA Tour victories in their career or more. Uh. Yeah, you have a lot of these trends. Thirteen and last fifteen at least played something in December. Now maybe that's even the hero World Challenge. So obviously a lot of the top end guys like the Schefflers and the Hobblins that played there would certainly qualify under that particular trend because you don't want to come in cold where he hadn't played in like two two and a half months.
Yeah yeah, yeah, just go over mine quick. Yeah, more kala, that's an outright bet for me. All these are outrights. I did play Xander Shaftley at sixteen to one winner here. Yeah, another guy that just historically has played really well here. You know he was a was he was a withdrawal last year.
Yeah, yeah, he did, because I remember when he won back in gosh, what was it was it twenty none twenty nineteen, yeah, twenty nineteen.
Then he was a runner up. I think Gary Woodland h.
One year next year yeah yeah, twenty ye yeah.
So yeah, he has very good form here as well. I've seen a little bit of love for speed here too this week. If he's got a first, a second, and a third. Now that was bow the way back from twenty fourteen to twenty seventeen, but he's got the play.
Yeah. I think there's I think there's some sharp guys that are heading into the season pretty aggressive on Jordan' speed for what I've seen, and the guy that makes sense from we saw him a pretty good year last year. He's not usually a guy that you'll see me betting often, but he did have a pretty good year last year. I think that makes sense he could have a like you could roll that into twenty twenty four. I played Shoftley here, the other guy I wrote down, because it would be very I think you could play him for almost all the similar reasons that I'm citing for Xander Shaffley. You're just gonna get a slightly worse number on him. It's Patrick can't lay. I mean, he's got everything here to back up a play on him. I know you're talking short odds, but this is where the odds get a little bit interesting, a little bit different from what we talked talk about and see week the week, because this is a smaller field. You're talking fifty nine guys, so it's obviously at a fourteen to one or sixteen to one is not the same with fifty nine guys as when you have one hundred and twenty out there, So you know, it is. It is something to keep in mind. And you know, when you talk about the longer shots that we're looking at, oh okay, those you know, those become even more valuable than what the numbers are next to him.
So I'm sorry, I'm sorry about you did just mention Can't lay. And I wonder, you know, maybe this is finally gonna be the big year for Patrick Cantlay, Yeah, because he took a lot of hell during the Ryder Cup. He really, you know, for for you know, talking about the money and whatnot, and the little kerfuffle with Rory McIlroy that that, you know, and and involved that the cat, the caddies getting involved, Joe l Cova is getting involved, and it was a whole deal. And uh, you know, Can't Lay has kind of not had positive publicity uh in the off season because you know, he's been openly talking about being paid for the Ryder Cup. Shofflet was certainly a part of that, as well as Shoffle's father, who's also his agent.
So, you know, but can't lay. Now is the time for Can't lay?
Like it was really a major, Like like he's too good not to be a major champions.
Everything you want me to, right, how's the time for.
These guys really, you know, win something really substantial.
Yeah, So I didn't want I didn't want to stack the card with obviously too many short shot guys. I got more cow already, so I bet Shoffley. I bet Shaffley. If you feel strong about can't lay, I think you could easily bet him too, though, and I was full support for that.
I'll be betting him a lot that like, like I usually do, and maybe maybe get hurt and have some pain. But look, he I think he's going.
To have a big year.
Yeah yeah, me too, me too. Moving down the card again, this is where I start to get into longer shots. I think the other thing I'll just you know, kind of kind of heads up and tip for this event. I don't know about you, Wes, but oh my god, did I find some very very different numbers from book to book.
Yeah you know this is oh yeah.
Yeah, I don't think it's I think it just shows you that, you know, odds bakers are are coming in with kind of the same ruff that betters are.
Right.
We talk about this often at the beginning of almost every season in every sport, that you know, hey, if you're looking at dogs in the NFL or so, make sure you're betting that money line too, and sat out just taking the points because everybody's scrambling to figure out these teams. I think that's the same case here. So, like Eric Cole, I played him because it mainly because I found a seventy five to one out out there on him. Look, this is a breakout year for this guy, and it continued all the way into into the fall. We're talking about a T three at the RSM, T two at Dizozo, T three at Tringers for the fort net. Yes, it's his first time at this course. But here's the thing I kept coming back to with him West, what's the one the biggest problem with his game is he sprays it off the tee. Yeah, right, but you're dealing with fifty yards wide of fairly danger.
He exactly.
And you talked about hitting out of the rough. It's not really penal that you're gonna be seeing these guys hitting out of the rough. So even if he is kind of spraying it with the driver a bit, I think he still got a chance. So play him seventy five to one. And then one of the long problems that I played was Luke List. He is another guy's been active this fall, not exactly incredible results, but at least he's been playing ten nineteen at the rs MT twenty, Bermuda T forty five, WWTT eighteen At the Shriners he won sands one way. Yeah yeah, yeah, was T eleven here last year. You know it doesn't have a ton of experience here. But did put up that last year? I think he grated. He rated as the worst putter at the field to me. But that's what's always gonna happen to Luke List. That's always what's gonna be the case you just were talking about. Could I get one hot week of putting out of him on a slow, slow Bermuda putting service?
Can he do what he did at the Farmer's Insurance a couple of years ago? And just h well, I know I can't putt, so I'm just gonna knock my approach shot dead to like two feet kill all the wills.
Ala Taurus betters out there.
But by the way, zalatoris of course not in this field this week because he didn't win because he missed most of last year. So he's going to be somebody to watch early in the season though, because he return back at the Hero in the Bahamas.
Yeah, putting was not good.
He was doing that little like sweeping motion and I might want to go back to the drawing I did. He was one of my two that I bet actually in that event, I thought it was a good sign and then yeah he did not putt well.
Yeah, yeah, absolutely the best bet recap. Yeah yeah, yeah, I got new sounders on firing at us.
Oh wow, all right, we were high falutin.
That's right. Let's just run through them all real quick, all outright place for me. Colin Moore, Cawa, Xanderschoffley, Eric Cole, and Luke list reminders. Shop around. You will find different prices on these guys in a lot of different like I think circa I saw like it was like forty ish or something on Eric Cole like that. Eric Cole has been a popular guy this.
Fall, Like yeah, I told you it's getting hit because like yeah, uh Mike, Colin Marikawa twelve to one. I missed the fourteen unfortunately, but yeah I saw at Cerke he was like nine to one or plus eight fifty.
So yeah, I took, I took. I took an odds boost on him this week. Yes, we did have an odds boost at Caesar's available for fourteen to one.
Nice.
Nice, Yeah, absolutely one of those I've ever bet. I think take.
Advantage of those promotions with new books and obviously new jurisdictions across the country making all this stuff legal. So for me callin Marakowi twelve to one, Max Homa his Ryder Cup team partner at fourteen to one, Tom Kim twenty five to one Cam Davis eighty to one. The only two matchups I bet so far Tom Hogy plus one fifty over Chris Kirk, Xanderschoffle minus won thirty five over Ludwig Gobert. Ludvig Gobert might be the player I fade this week in multiple matchups, but any other matchups placement market bets Vson dot Com slash picks on our pro picks page will likely post those sometime on Wednesday.
Yeah, that's the I am definitely telling you on that matchup, and you're right, I'm gonna have to look at those a little bit more. It's not really matchups. I'm not gonna be spread around a lot here, but I think if there is someone to go against, he's a good one to kind of target this week. I think you could target him with a few different matchups. And Xander, I'm already on and out right with him. Obviously, I like the guy this week, so that's a matchup. I'm definitely gonna be tailing you on, all right. That's gonna do it for us here this week. Back next week, sonyo, but will hopefully have all three of us back here, Matt Brown in as well with me and Wes. Wes, good luck on the bets, everybody out there, good luck on the bets. Welcome back PGA Tour season. Will stalk to you next week.
