Long Shots: VSiN's Golf Betting PodcastMatt Brown, Kelley Bydlon, and Wes Reynolds preview the Genesis Scottish Open from all betting angles. Kelley and Wes are coming off an outright winner (Matt gets a runner-up... again) with Davis Thompson winning the John Deere Classic. They turn their attention to the Scottish Open where Rory McIlroy is the favorite. The guys go over their course breakdown and stats that matter. Also, best bets for the Scottish Open!
This is long Shots, Vison's premiere golf betting podcasts.
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds and Kelly Bidlin.
Hello, Welcome to long Shots golf betting podcast here on the Vson podcast network. I and Matt Brown, joined each and every week by Wes Reynolds Kelly Bidlin. This is the Scottish Open edition of long Shots. Before we get going. I wasn't here last week. Go ahead, tip of the cap to both of you guys. Davis Thompson I had his ass a week ago and I finished finished second and didn't get home and actually in the runner up seat yet again. That is three tournaments in a row with the runner up, and so that feels great. But you know, not that I'm bitter anything. It's just, you know, not that it really hurts me, like a kick in the crotch from a donkey or anything. But yeah, you know, it's it's it's fine. But I'm glad you guys both got home. I mean it was a deal where going into Sunday, even with the lead, you did feel all that confident because everybody was shooting like six seven eight under and so if he didn't go low, he could have played very well and still got caught. But he actually decided to go out there and just make all the birdies too, and so you knew he was running pure. I don't know if you guys saw this like a there was a three hole stretch in the first like six or seven holes where he went Bertie, Bertie birdie, and it was fifteen footer, twenty nine footer, and fourteen footer for Bertie and it was just like, guy is making every single putt on the course. He's gonna win this tournament. So good job to you guys out there, and honestly, a guy that is that is on the rise. I'm not bettinghim again this week, but like if I just went by recent model stuff that I put in or whatever he would be, he probably would have.
Made the card.
Yeah. He uh, heck of a performance, I know. I mean I feel like you guys have bet him way more than me, like over the past like year and a half. And I say that only because like I don't know if I've ever bet Davis Thompson performed.
Yeah, I was a good hit man.
He's uh, he's coming, I mean, he's really coming into form. I love his I mean I love it. He carries himself out there too. Of just like man, he is kind of stoic and boring and like it's just he's locked in. Like it feels like a guy who's going to be pretty successful on the PGA Tour as he goes forward with his career. And Matt, I feel feel for you. I think second place finishes with golf outrights are maybe the one of the worst things in sports. Matt, I'm just gonna say that like that. It's I can remember years. I don't know about you guys. There's not a year that sticks out in my mind where I can remember the most amount of outrights that I fit. But I will never forget two years ago where I had thirteen second place finishes on outrace.
So yeah, I mean West, we look at you know, we look at this and it's like, you know, Davis Thompson, I think is a dude that in full field events. I don't know how often we're going to maybe pick him with outright bets, maybe we like him in placement marks, whatever, but honestly, with the trajectory of his game, maybe that change. Just hear, you know, our thoughts on him. Kind of I was always targeting him in these weaker field events, right because of his game and his party making ability and stuff like that, and never really considered him at all in the full field events. But if you look at a stat profile in the way that he has improved over the last two years, maybe I need to change my mindset on it.
Well, look, he's got a great pedigree, the fact that he was the former world number one amateur, so he was certainly, I think, thought to be destined for success in professional golf.
And look, it takes a while. He'd been runner up.
Three times, including in Detroit the week before, twice in his last six starts. And you know, you go out and shoot twenty nine on the front nine, and that all of a sudden makes a Sunday sweat, not a Sunday sweat, even though Michael chr. Bornson made a little bit of a run on the back nine cut the lead to three, but shoot twenty nine on the front nine, make over one hundred feet of putts on that front nine, and was led the field and scrambling last week eighteen of twenty up and downs. I don't know what his ceiling is going to be. I think his ceiling is above winning the John Deere Classic. Though, like I, I think that he's he's got some good play in him and he's gonna keep getting better. I don't know how high he's gonna rise, but I wouldn't say necessarily he's just a guy that's gonna win in weaker events. Now I want to see him contend in better events. He did get his first major championship top ten at the US Open a couple of weeks ago at Pinehurst, so I want to see. But look, he's amongst a bunch of young guys out there that are hungry for wins, and he finally got one.
Yeah, it was, it was. It was awesome to watch. Though I know people don't like the I know people don't like the low scoring Some of the people don't like the low scoring events. I love watching dudes go out and destroy a course every now and then. Like it's because it's just fascinating to me to see them make more birdies on a front nine than I've ever made, like in my whole iceeling.
You know, it's especially they got to readdress this schedule. There's multiple PGA tour scheduling. Things I'd like to like to be changing for next year, like the signal Sure event thing. We've discussed this already on this pond a couple of times, but like the before after a major, like I kind of like the before a major, it feels like a nice like undercard to the title fight. Though after a major just felt weird this year. And then like the bird I'm fine with the Birdie Fest, Matt. I don't have a problem. I think I think people, yes take it too far when they freak out about those or then the people that freak out about how tough scoring conditions are on some courses, but like, just mix it up a little bit. What do we had like three in a row where they've just been Birdie Fest.
Yeah, something something like that.
I'll take a w though, no matter how Yeah, exactly.
Dub is a dub is a dub which leads us to the Genesis Scottish Open. This is a much more robust field than we've had the last few weeks. Rory McElroy, Zander Shoffle Lude, Big Oberg. You got Colin mar Kala, Tommy Fleetwood, Victor Hoblin all at the top of the oddsboard. No Scotti Scheffler this week, but a whole lot of really good players men would lead Tom Kim, Mapp, Fitzpatrick, Justin, Thomas, can So Yama. These are all your guys at the top of the odds. Words seven to fifty on Rory, eight p fifty on Zander, then we go to sixteen to one for both Ludwig and Colin, twenty on Tommy Fleetwood, twenty two on Victor Hoblin, twenty eight on minwoo Lee, thirty on Tom Kim, and then everybody else is thirty five or longer. I'm sure we will talk about several of these guys throughout the course of all of this, But the Renaissance Club wes what do we need to know?
Yeah, and look, you mentioned the field eighteen of the top thirty by the way in the field this week in the Official World Golf Ranking. So Renaissance in Durrelton, North Berwick, Scotland, about twenty miles east of Edinburgh, which is the capital city of Scotland, designed by an American designer in twenty eight Tom Doak. If you want to know the location of the course more specifically, it's right next to Mirfield, which is a regular track on the Open Championship rotation seventy two to thirty seven par seventy. It is link style, but not like a true links like you will see in terms of a lot of these Open Championship courses. So it's a little bit of a Parklands and a links course. It's tree lined on on some holes, so you know, a little bit different than your typical wide open Links. But it does have eighty three pot bunkers, no water holes obviously, and very firm turf. In terms of the agronomy, it's all fescu throughout. The greens are pretty big, seven thousand square feet, roll at about a ten on the stem, So these are some of the slowest greens that these players are going to play on, especially guys that have been playing on the PGA Tour, they have not played slow greens like this, so they're gonna, you know, have to have to get up to speed or down to speed, I should say, on these greens. Ruff's a little bit thicker than you'll see on most like link style courses, so you know, fescu throughout fairways relatively narrow. I think about thirty two yards on average so far seventy two far seventy Like I said, seventy two to thirty seven. They're there are three par fives though on this par seventy, which usually don't see. You've got one on the front and two on the back, number ten and number sixteen on the par five. So, as you mentioned, Rory won here last year eight to one, where he hit that two iron into like a thirty five mile an hour win gus to about eight feet, made a birdie and broke poor Robert McIntyre's heart on the eighteenth because it looked like he was going to win. But weather is going to dictate I think how low the scoring is going to get. We've seen twenty two underwin here and we've seen seven underwin here, all within the span of the last five years. So looked at the initial forecast and pretty mild wind, I would say, compared to what we've had here before. Some scattered rain on Thursday and Saturday.
Yeah, looking at it right now, looks I mean right now as we record. Reminder it is Tuesday evening on the East Coast, a little past seven o'clock as we record it is. Yeah, Wes, it is. It's pretty quiet really through the weekend. Thursday on sock back in on that it is Scotland's things change. That was just there.
Yeah, humble brag, like humble brag about the weather. Mack, Yeah, I mean, humble brag.
What I will.
What I can say is this is like we Wes talks about the green speed. That was one of the very first things. It was just so crazy for me, right, I mean, I played most of my rounds out of TPC here in Las Vegas, and you know those are those are fast greens, right, and so like, I mean, it is a pretty big difference putting on that on that fescue greens that are that are pretty damn slow. And then just for like like just for references, Wes talks about the the weather really dictating stuff.
Right.
So we played one round at you know, we played one round at Kingsbarns and it was ridiculous. The wind, the rain, that all the stuff, everything was just absolutely crazy. Ball was just flying like ridiculous all over the play. I'm literally teeing off of like a five iron like like teed way down and just punching it down fairways and stuff. And then I played Carnoustie, which is like the second hardest course in the world, but it was one of the the guy like my caddies, was saying that it's one of like twenty days a year that we didn't have wind.
And it was like and it was like gettable.
Like the court, you know, like the course was like, actually, you know, the defense is the weather, you know what I mean. Like, if it's not there, as long as you're hitting the fairways and not hitting it in the super tall grass like you could, you could play well. I shot fairly well at Carnousti because I didn't have the wind. So yeah, something like this is why I am kind of focusing on dudes that are that are birdie makers with the thought that maybe this plays a little more mild than we've seen sometimes in the past here with with all of this, so pretty interesting stuff with with that, and honestly, the field itself, as West mentioned, I mean, fairly deep. But you're you have some names that are have some decent odds attached to them, right, and so it'll be interesting to see what you guys ended up putting on your card. Some of these dudes, let's I'll just throw it out there. You know, you know a guy that we've bet a ton Kelly in but it's just in horrible, horrible form. Like we've got Max Homa sitting at sixty to one, you know, in this tournament right now, right where like this guy when he was on his run, was like in the twenty two, twenty three, twenty four to twenty five range, and now that he's his form is is crap. He's at sixty right, And so like, there are some dudes whose form isn't all that great that are have some really big numbers attach to their name too, and like I don't know if I'm gonna try to beat them to coming.
Back or not.
You know, I don't have that in the account quite yet, but some some good conversation, Yeah, it's had.
Nonetheless, yeah it's I mean, it's been pretty ugly for him. But like I mean, like you guys are talking about like this can be such a sharp you know, turn to like what these guys have been playing to you know, what they're going to play on out there. You talk about how slow the greens are, you get win that picks up, you know, I mean, this could completely we We've had guys like you know, Aaron Rye who's been playing incredibly recently, but like part of the reason he's been playing incredibly because he's been putting. He's you know, he's been putting some of the best putting he's done in his entire career. So, you know, and you're talking about this shift in greens. It's, well, okay, he's English great like he's probably you know, he's a little more used to these type conditions the other guys. But I don't know, I don't know that i'd want to change up, you know, the greens I've been playing on if you're actually finding your putting form for once. So who knows. For someone like max Oma, maybe it does help correct some things. Hey, we're pointing out to this is a you know, not a signature event. It's like kind of funny because this is one of the few almost like invitationals we have left right because it is it's not a signature event on the PGA Tour. It is a split event between the PGA and dp World Tour, and he gets seventy five from each and then there are some you know, sponsor exemptions as well. So in the new landscape of golf on the PGA Tour, this is a little bit of an odd tournament. You know, we've had it for a couple of years now, but especially with the new signature events in place, this is a little bit of a little bit of an odd standout.
Yeah, it's gonna be it's gonna be interesting how this all, how this all plays out this week with the weather and with the wind and with all the stuff that goes on there.
By the way, the tenths half just half of what we have right now you're in Vegas. It's okay, fifty five degrees, yeah, fair and just half.
Hey man, look look once it gets above one ten, like it's all the same.
Seriously, it's fortunately true.
Yes, so yeah, well, once it gets above one ten, it's all the same. Everyone's like freaking out When it was one hundred and twenty the other day, Like I went and played nine.
Holes and like, oh, you're weird, and.
It felt the same as it did two days before when it was one fifteen. I mean, it's like it all feels the same, Like above one ten, it all feels the same. Like I don't understand what people are like losing their mind about, like unless there's like one hundred and forty and you're gonna melt when you walk out the.
Buildings until you pass out.
Yeah, like, I.
Mean, yeah, if it's like to the point where like you can't function, like you're what, you can't breathe if you walk outside outside, I mean, it's the difference we won eleven and one nineteen is like nothing.
I mean, there's just no there's just no difference. There's there's no difference.
You can't feel it, all right, guys, So let's start talking about the stuff that we find important this week and what we ended up putting in our models. West, I'll kick things off with you here and see how complicated and honestly, what timeframe are you looking at as well with all of this, Cause that's a question I continue to get asked, is like, you know what am I How far back am I looking? What am I taking into consideration whenever I'm filling out a car?
Yeah, look, I went a little bit longer whereas I went kind of the whole season a little bit because because like Kelly mentioned, this is split between PGA Tour and DP World Tour members, so I wanted to include the DP World Tour members as well. Sometimes the data is not as readily accessible as some of the PGA Tour data. So yeah, I did leaders basically on both tours, and you know, some of the numbers can be misleading because some of the guys you know that are PGA Tour players primarily might have played two or three events on the dp World Tour early in the season, so you had to take that into a little bit of context. So I did approach this web this week. Six of the top seven on the leaderboard gained at least almost two and a half strokes on approach last time out. So if it's not as windy, I think, you know, guys that are very good with the irons can get it pretty close here. I did do distance. Average driving distance was two hundred and ninety five yards. Bigger hittage hitters are going to have the advantage because you don't have as much rollout on the fairway as you're gonna have on most links courses. So even though you know the Turfa firm, that doesn't mean it's gonna play like super fast with a bunch of rollouts. So driving distance I thought was important. Strokes gained around the green, especially if you do get windier conditions, you know, it gets tougher to gain around the green. Obviously, the harder it is because the wind's gonna knock the shots off the greens, and the pot bunkers also forced chip shots from the tighter lies, So you got to look at around the green. I looked at just general putting, you know, because this is fescue. So there's not a lot of events on fescue on the tour. So I didn't look at the agronomy, but I looked at just general putting, you know, which is going to take into account. Guys have faced some slower greens, some faster greens. Now these are going to be to the extreme though, because these are very slow at ten on the stamp three pot rate because of the greens that are pretty large and the slow speed of these greens, you got you you can make three potts here. So I looked at three putt avoidance. I looked at in terms of like a yardage group strokes gained par four four fifty to five hundred. Also some some birdy or better gained as well. And then just like general links or wind courses, with wind, you obviously can discount and if it's going to be as benign as we think it's gonna be.
But just looked at that for some context.
Yeah, this is where I will do the.
Shout out to our friend of the network game in his site over there. I usually use three different side every week. We talk about that all the time here on the program. Just one for me this week because he does have the information that all the other sites don't have. So I didn't use any of the other sites this week and only used his site over there.
So again, shout out where it is.
We always talk about modeling, like again, if you're just, if you just join us, if you're new.
I didn't.
I did not invent a model. I am not a coder. I don't know how to code. I couldn't code my way. I couldn't if someone said I will give you six weeks and you can just figure out how to put a rudimentary model together, and I will give you one million dollars, I would come out with zero dollars out of that.
Out of that goal, I just there's no way. So I use someone else's hard work.
But I do put in what I feel to be important, how heavily to wait it the timeframe to look back on, and then trying to find value up and down where I think that the number of the odds attached to the player isn't necessarily where they are modeling out. So again, just that disclaimer, Kelly, Yeah, pretty much the same for me. I went pretty heavy off the tea in distance. I did pretty heavy on around the green and scrambling type stuff. I threw an opportunities gained and birdy or better gain because I again, I think that this could play a little milder. I think that this could be one where we want guys who can go out and score. And so I did that. But outside of that, I mean, you know, a little bogey avoidance, little uh, you know, little little little other of the other stuff. I mean, obviously, approach is always plays in, but I mean I'm kind of getting tired of just saying like approach every single week. So it's, you know, it's like a given right, like we're it's it's I'm doing approach.
Yeah, but if you're.
Gonna bring up the model spiel, you got to still bring up what's most important in every single week's approach is the most usually is the most important stat that we're gonna talk about.
I mean, do you know, do you know what though? Do you know what I have?
Like I've I've moved away from and since we're kind of having the discussion of strategy and things like that, Like I don't use the proximity buckets anymore.
Like there is such.
An incredibly weird, like drastic change between some of these dudes. Like if you put in one one twenty five to one fifty and then one fifty one seventy five, It's like, how can a guy be third at one fifty to one seventy five and then or one seventy five he's ninety ninth in the field or something like I'm just wondering if like it's a sample sized thing or if it's a whatever and all that, and so like I've actually moved away from the proximity stuff. It's like you can either hit approach shots, so you can't. It's kind of how I look at I.
Think that's a great point to bring up. I feel like the one that I've brought up that's kind of similar to that before is like when you go to look at you know, we talk accuracy numbers huge off the t it's the you know, we'll bring up good drives gained a lot, which I think is a great stat you know, we're guy. That does include approach a little bit if you're able to hit the green with your second shot. But it's amazing how you'll you'll see a guy, see a guy fortieth and fairways gained or something like that, and then he's one hundred and thirtieth and you're like, wait, what like yeah, hell, Like I just think I'm looking for someone who's acres. I do think it's I think all this stuff is good to look at, but yes, like you're talking about, I think you need to understand that there there is gonna be some kind of just wild variables like that.
Yeah, I think the only time I'll really use it in the future is if if if we're playing on a on a shorter course where literally it's gonna be just like wedges every single time, and like there are dudes that are like exponentially better wedge players than than other people. And like so maybe that where we're looking at like the seventy five to one hundred, you know, like something like what like who are these dudes that are always putting it within six to eight feet from from that distance? Like maybe that's something for me moving forward, But like the weekend week out of who can who's good from one hundred and seventy hay yard. It's like, that's the one hundred and fifty hundred seventy has Like I mean, come on, like maybe it's I think that has to be something to say a sample size.
I think I think it's the extremes. I think this is a good conversation, but I think it's the extremes cause it's I feel like I bring it up often and there's there's one or two guys on my card this week. This applies to too, where it's okay, if you're gonna play on a long course, you gotta be long off the tee. You gotta be able to hit your long iron as well. Right, So like there is you know, call more a cow is probably the best example that he is not long off the tee. He is great though, and you're talking that two hundred plus range, one hundred and seventy five, two hundred plus that that sort of thing. So it's I think it. I think it applies when you're talking. I think I think it's necessary when you're talking like we saw last week, right now, it is yeah, okay, wedges, you're hitting wedges like we're rarely It is very rare that the three of us will sit here on a podcast and bring this. Bring that up. How many times does it happen a year? Three times a year? Basically, we're like, we're really focusing on this wedge range. You know, it's seventy five to one twenty five, and you know, but we're often talking about the long iron guys. So I understand what you're saying. I think it's the the extremes you should still keep in mind.
Yeah, no, no, for sure. All right, So that's what me and West looked at. Any anything different on your end.
No, I think that was a good conversation because I did include some of those longer proximity ones. This is a long course as you go. As you guys talked about driving distance is something that I definitely punched in. It feels like I weighed that more heavily this week since I mean, I feel before the US Open, which is a little weird to say, but it's been I feel like it's been a long time. I've really had to dial up the driving distance numbers. So it went up there, hit Dad, hit approach, so that I mean that is the majority of the model. Yes, I did include some of the longer proximity ranges. But as you guys talked about already, opportunities game Birdie, you're better Matt I play I entered those as well. Right now. If we're looking at colm win conditions, I mean, look, you either want to go one or two ways. Right If you think you're in calm conditions, you want someone who's gonna be you know, close to the pin, attacking the pin, those type of guys. Or if it's gonna be a little sloppy, you need a little better around the green play and some of the stuff you can't predict. So we're plugging it all in right. You know, did dad did around the green scram like you talked about just stroke pure strokes, game putting like you talked about Wes, and then the three putt of void into the lag putting stats. I think those are important when you're talking about greens that are this big.
Guys who we come back.
We'll let you know what the models spit out and what ended up making our betting cards. This week, Can Wes and Kelly go back to back here with the Scottish Open Welcome back long Shots here on the Vison Podcast Network Matt Wess and Kelly. Guys, if you haven't done so already, please hit that subscribe button. Do appreciate that it's absolutely free this here podcast each and every.
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And if you want to rate and review even better, unless you want to leave like anything less than a four star, and then you can just keep it.
We don't want your three stars.
Yeah, yeah, whatever you say, two and a half stars this week you sucked.
Yeah, it'll feel better, it will feel better. We'll roll react or something whatever, but like, yeah, just don't don't leave it for the Apple. You know, it's like, just let us know personally. If it don't leave it for the Apple people, don't ruin it for everybody else. So all right, So looking at the top of the odds board again, it is a It is a short short short on Rory, short short short on Xander. Then we jump all the way to sixteen with Ludwig and Colin, than twenty on Fleetwood. Only a couple more guys in the twenties there in Victor Hoblin and minwood Lee at twenty two and twenty eight over at draftings. Then everybody else is thirty or longer. I think the odds are correct on Rory and Xander. I think this is about the time for me to say, like, look, Rory took some time off because he felt like he needed some time off. It was a I'm sure, a devastating loss and all those things, you know, but I mean, okay, he took the time off. I completely expect him to play fine at this turna like. This is not one of those things where it's like I think he missed out on this major and now his career is gonna go down the toilet or anything like. I mean, I think he's gonna be perfectly fine. He's one or two in every version of every model that I ran, it was either him Orxander. Again, that's what the odds dictate as well, and so I think that that's right, and I think that Rory's gonna play just fine. I just don't have a ton of interest in playing at playing him at a super short number.
That's just kind of my strategy. That's kind of my style and.
When it comes to golf betting, So probably look for him maybe in some head to heads if I find them juicy enough, or three balls or whatever it might be. But I don't think I'll be betting him outright. Wes, who were like the top five guys.
In your in your model this week?
Yeah, Look, Rory and Xander, I think same thing really going forward. They just kind of popped really on everything, and then that's why they're priced. It's like these guys you know that make these numbers, they can look at some of the same stuff that we do as well, So they were.
Very high on there. And uh gosh, the rest of the top five.
I had Tommy Fleetwood actually fifth in in my top five, which really surprised me this week from some of the numbers I took.
Had Ludwig at number four and.
Had Morikawa at number three, So it basically goes kind of like the odds board is going this week.
Yah, yeah, yeah, that was I would say if I did it my my top five power rankings for the week, right, it would be Rory one, Xander two, more Kala three, Ludwig four. Yeah, we'll go Ludwig four and and Tom Kim five.
If you're if we're like nitpicking here, I think really the only difference at all between Rory and Xander in this is just the driving distance thing. But it's kind of like at the end of the day, like Sander's not short by any stretch of the imagination, right, I mean, like it's just Rory destroys it.
But do you guys give Rory a slight back to Europe bump. I guess I do, but it's very minimal. I mean I don't not at this point. Yeah, I mean at this point, like, no, I feel like the odds are doing that though I don't know. I don't know that there should be much of a separation between Xander Shoffley and Rory Backleroy.
Yeah.
No, and you can, like and honestly, the numbers bear that out too, right. You start to look and you compare the different categories and it's like, oh, he's better than him. Oh he's better than this one. He's better in this one, he's better than this one. He just kind of toggles back and forth all the way. And like I said, you know, Xander, over the last twenty four rounds, he's seventeenth in this field and driving distance like it's not like it's not like a short be any stretch, and that's not going to be something that affects him. I think moving forward with all of that. Like I said, the weird thing about this for me and I can't go there, and I don't think you guys are going to go there either. But in my twenty four round model, Davis Thompson is fifth overall actually after a runner up and then a win and then a get on a plane and go over whatever. Like I don't really have an interest in betting Davis Thompson. But again I think that this is where my mindset needs to shift. I think a little bit, because he's right there with the big boys now when it comes to these stats and stuff, and again fifth overall in the last twenty four rounds.
Yeah, I would say some of the other names that popped up pretty consistently in that top ten range for me were minwou Leear and Ry, Keith Mitchell, Yes, Andrew Novak, Kevin.
You anytime he puts some driving this and stuff, and anytime you put like a lot of like, some of these guys are gonna pop up, like Keith Mitchell anytime you know, it's just like he's gonna, He's gonna pop up.
You put driving this, it's in there, Keith Mitch gonna.
I'll spoil one already, I played I played a long shot bomb on Keith Mitchell, and as long as conditions stay the same, I'll play him for first round lead or two. You're talking, I mean you're talking with him at this point. He's like a top ten ball striker on the tour, like around the green and putting little. Maybe not have that conversation. It ain't so great, but you know, off the team on approach.
It's probably why it's when equity is so low, because it's like he can he he like can have two really good rounds and then he has like a may round and then it's kind of like you like to win a tournament, you can't have a Mayor round, you know, Like it's like.
Are you implying that he drives for show and does not put for dough?
No, I'm just saying that, Like I'm staying at Keith Mitchell. We've seen time after time like he can put two of the four rounds together and then he'll have a kind of off round and then he'll have just a peter a long round or it's like we don't get four rounds out of Keith Mitchell, you know, like we just don't get four rounds out of Keith Mitsch, which is why I like him way more. And like you're talking about a a round leader market or something or low round up the day market or any kind ofnything like that, because yeah, if if things are going well, he can he can get after it. It's just they rarely go well four days in a row.
Yeah, yeah, he is a He's the only guy I've got big bold circled right now, a first round leader as long as weather doesn't change at all.
All right, I like it. I like it. I want go ahead, just continue.
Yeah, yeah, I didn't go I didn't mix it up too much with bets. I mean, I do think when we are talking about this mixed up you know, mixed field between the DP World Tour and the PGA Tour, and you got it. Everything we've talked about so far, massive changes with the course and the greens and these guys. I ain't gonna need to be a little I think this is the tournament we talk about every year where like I love it. I don't know about you guys, like I've started to love this tournament like every year, but it is the big shift right from the PGA Tour summer to go over over to Scotland and then get ready for the Open the next week. We bring this up off and I'm just I'm not looking to burn too much cash before the open comes up to and we're to save some bullets for there. So dial back the bets a little bit, mainly just dabbled in the outright market. Started with calling Morrico. Though I did play him, I know I mentioned him earlier. I kind of have a feeling more cow will be on my card every week at this point until he wins, because he is hovering right right around there. I mean his game is right now. I mean it's Scheffler, It's Scheffler, Rory's and recalled Moricoo. I think it in a pretty cool separation at.
The Markala third or fourth in all versions of mine that I ran, and I wasn't gonna play him until you showed we got an Oddsmit, we were rare to get odsbus in the Nevada, but uh you may you brought one to my attention, and so Markwa did make my card as well, because we.
We got we got we got better odds in the Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, I took the eighteen, but I was ready to bet him at sixteen too, Like that is I was ready to bet him at sixteen. So look, I do think this is a perfect example. Like there's a couple of plays I have in my car. I already brought up Keith Mitchell. Great, he's he's a bomber, right, but we run these And when you have a guy who's still sticking top four, top five in your model, when you're weighing driving distance as heavily as I am, that tells you how good the rest of his game really is for him to be popping up there. So morikawa for me again. If you I mean, if you haven't shot T thirteen at the Travelers, T fourteen in the US Open second Memorial, he's on a tear right now. His worst finished since the Masters was the T sixteen at Quail Hollow, So he's really been playing well. Only played here I think once miscut here in twenty twenty two, but love where his game's at right now. Really think I'll be back at him, back with him almost pretty much every week right now until he does win. So outright play on him. And then I did play a top ten on him. I just I wasn't going to dabble too much of the placement markets, but where his games at and where he ranks in this field getting about over plus one seventy five on a top ten, is I got still a good play for me this week, So went with that. Tom Kim next up for me, What do you got? Two years where he's T six and third year obviously Lake's playing here. I know that was a tough beat for you guys on him a few weeks ago, but his game kind of coming into form here two second of the Travelers T twenty six of the US Open. Yes, he did miss the cut at the Rocket Mortgage, but it was right after that Travelers loss. So and he had.
Played like five months in a row, ye, like not taking a break, Like it was like hey kid, go go go chill out man, have a beer.
You know, yeah, yeah.
I think he was ready for a little break and hopefully recaptures some of them some of his game and you know, takes it to a next level. And of course he's performed really well at SO I did play an outright on him and I played a top twenty with him, and then mentioned Keith Mitchell already again just ball striking ability out of this world. And when you're looking at eighty ninety to one on him. That was good enough for me to take a flyer on and out right. The only other on the other guy I played an outright on them was Min wou Lee, not someone that I've bet very often at all. His approach numbers always scare the hell out of him. He's one of these weird guys on the tour. Really right now. That is you know, what would we say, a top twenty, top twenty five guy on the PGA tour who's excellent, not that great with his approach approach numbers, but he's excellent everywhere else. And he does have a win on this course in twenty twenty one, so was really up there in my modeling, I am gonna play taken outright on him. Twenty eight to one is where I got him at. I think he's right around twenty five to one though, I play him there. And then two matchups for me just to finish up the card. I played more Cow over Tommy Fleetwood. It was minus one fifteen on more Cow over Fleetwood. I don't doubt for a second to Tommy Fleetwood will fill a lot more comfortable at this course this week and We often talk about it where he struggles in the US, but where I have these two separated empower overall kind of just power rankings. Right now, it's way more than minus one fifteen, So I'll take more cow in that match up. And then Aaron Raye, I played minus one fifteen over a match up over Davis Davis Dobson. If you're doing it right at age twenty five, you should have been partying after that, after that victory last week, and now you're going all the way over to Scotland right away. So I'm gonna expect a little bit of a sloppy Davis Dobson out of the gates here.
I like it. I like it, Wes, what made your card, buddy?
Yeah?
Started it off with Ludwig overt at sixteen to one. I don't know how good of a Lynx player that he is, but I think he's just a good player in general, even though he doesn't have a lot of experience in these type of events. Top ten on approach, top ten off the tee in this field. So went with Ludwig at sixteen to one. He's basically at the same price here that he is in the Open too. Next week so I thought, okay, you know, maybe he wins in a slightly downfield without some of the live guys here. Tommy Fleet's Tommy Fleetwood twenty to one, who lost in the playoff here to Aaron Rye in twenty twenty, but he's been fourth and six here in the subsequent appearances, so you know, just kind of a horse for the course play here on Tommy Fleetwood to I played on twenty eight to one, third and six here his last two appearances. A couple weeks removed from falling short in that playoff at the Travelers the Scottie Scheffler, so maybe comes in rejuvenated and then went with the guy that has won here, who we just mentioned Aaron Rye forty five to one one here in that playoff over Fleetwood and very rainy and then when when like a windy condition. So if it's that, then I think that this falls right into those guys' laps Aaron Rye. When he won this, by the way, it was still exclusively a dp World Tour event, so you've got guys that are still seeking their first PGA Tour victories and now the Scottish Open could fit the bill for him. Ry was second in Detroit a couple weeks ago, seventh again last week at the John Darre he was thirty six hole leader, second place. He was in that final pairing with Davis Thompson as he and Eric Cole just kind of got run over there on the front nine. But he's playing really good and consistent golf. Thomas Detri at sixty to one, another guy seeking that first PGA Tour win, lost in a playoff here to Matt Fitzpatrick back in twenty twenty one, runner up in Houston, top five's at the PGA, top five at Pebble Beat, so he's put together a few good performances this year. So I thought decent number on Detri. And then Nikolai Hoyguard eighty to one, who has really had mixed results this year on the PGA Tour. Had contended in San Diego when Matchew Pavone won, but hasn't really done that much of note. But now he's back in Europe on a course where he finished sixth last year. Plenty of links Patigree has won links events on the DP World Tour before and then contended another. So I thought kind of a big number on a guy whose forms not very good. But I think you're going to see him on the first page on Sunday here Nikolai Hoyguard eighty to one.
Yeah, so I said, I took more Kala and that was mainly an Odds Boos thing.
I think I was going to pass on him.
But you know, listen, Odds Boos is an Odds Boos and I'll take the eighteen to one on him. So the outlier for me, guys this when it came to modeling, and it was just very odd to me. But justin Thomas was at the top of a lot of the versions of the model that I ran this week, inside the top five in a couple of different versions that I ran, and you kind of dig in and you start to see, like over the last twenty four rounds, he's green across the board basically right, and all of the stuff that we put in, I mean, you know, it's gaining off the tee, gaining on approach, gaining around the greens. We got all the stuff that, like, you know, the weighted stuff around the green is really really excellent. You look at his driving, which I thought was like crap, but it's kind of like total driving. If you look at his total driving, he's twenty seventh in this field, opportunities gained twenty third, eleventh in scrambling. We know he's kind of a wizard when it comes to all of that. And it feels like Justin Thomas, weirdly enough, makes a ton of bogies. But over the last twenty three's ninth in this field and bogievoints. So I don't know what I've been missing, maybe over with jt here over the last little bit, but as I dug in a little bit further ended up making the card for me. So Justin Thomas out there and he actually is getting bed. I got him at forty. It's all the way down to thirty five already now at DraftKings.
So there are some people who are taking notice of Justin Thomas as well.
He's had a weird season. I mean, it's just one of those guys like more Cow was kind of mired in that a little bit early in the year, right, But he's got I mean, Justin Thomas has what four missed cuts this year, but then you're talking he's cut five top ten finishes, like you know, and I think you're right, man. Where there's some of these guys that just if they're not doing it almost every week consistently, they kind of just fly under the radar for us. He did pop in one of my shorter term ones. I didn't I don't know. I don't know how long I considered him, but it was one of those moments where you're like, justin Thomas, Okay, why am I seeing your name this time?
So yeah, he was.
Up there for me.
Yeah, forty to one I think is pretty fair. The thirty five even would be interesting for me. I don't know about much lower than that, but still available out there if you go and look around. Only one more outright for me this week that's on the card currently. Maybe a couple get added, but uh, Corey Connors for me, was weirdly showing up inside the top fifteen in just about every version of the model fifty eight to one.
Here in town.
You can still find like fifty five's out there on Corey Connors. If you're a rest of country and you go in and you're like, man, I think we have this deal where we think of Corey Connors as nothing more than like an accurate driver of the golf ball. And then you go and you realize, like, I mean, he over the last twenty four rounds, he's averaging three hundred and two yard three hundred and one point one eight yards off the tee right, which is good for thirty fifth in this field as it is anyway, And like, the difference between where he's at at three oh one point one point eight and someone inside the top twenty is is like you go to, let's get to well, let's go to Davis Thompson, for example, is at three oh five point seven, So we're talking about four yards right off the tee and that would get him inside the top twenty in this field. I mean, the big difference is just the guys at the top Rory and Bennie On and min Wo Lee are sitting in the three twenties, right, I mean, yeah, there's a massive difference there. But when you talking about the Differencedwening, Corey Connors and basically the rest of the field, it's not really that big of a deal when it comes to driving this for him. And so you dig in and you start to break things down and then all the rest of the stuff that we like, we know Corey Connor says very very well, and so for me, you know, fifty eight to one, even the fifty five to ones that are out there, he's thirteenth. In the twenty four, he's eleventh, and the thirty two that I ran.
I mean, it's just, yeah, he's up there. For me, he's just he does.
A lot of stuff well, you know, I mean, he just does a lot of stuff well, and so maybe we can run, maybe we can run pure for him, Bertie are better gained was the shocking thing to me, Like he's fifth overall in this.
Field, second on approach last twenty four.
Yeah, Like, it's just it's pretty pretty crazy. Whenever you put all of that together.
I'm gonna guess this is the guy that you were thinking of when you brought up your proximity example, because yeah, he's thirty ninth and one seventy five to two hundred and then one hundred and thirtieth on this field two hundred plus. Yah.
Yeah, I know.
It's just like, I just don't I think it has to be a sample sized thing, right, because it's just like smaller sample size of those longer irons, and if you have a bad tournament, then it's yeah, it's tough.
To do it in the mid range, like I think, you know, you could do it two hundred plus, that's easy enough, or inside one hundred yards like that's easied enough. But when you're like going because some of these ranges it's like, okay, proximity seventy five to one fifty, well that's a big freaking range, and there's big freaking differences there. There's not much of a difference between you know, a sixty yard wet shot and an eighty yard wed shot. So inside one hundred, I think, is the way you can go if you do the real short ones.
And then guess what if you suck from one hundred and fifty yards out on the PGA tour, like you're not on the PGA Tour for long, right, Like that's where there's some of this is like it there too, right, If you can't hit a damn iron shot for you know, pretty consistently from that range, like you ain't gonna make it very long.
So I this all again, So shout out to to to Rick run good site over there. So if you scroll down, if you're modeling over there, there's gonna be guys that don't model out very well because there it's incomplete stat profile and so some of the stuff that I put in to my model they just don't register. And so when that happens, these guys just fall in whenever you start to model.
But then you can.
All you have to do is just look for the guys that are green basically across the board, and then even when they're missing some of the other stats. And so three guys that I'm going to look at in some way, shape or form, be it from an outright, be it from a head to head, be it from a grouping some I'm gonna find some way. Maybe it's placement market. But there are three guys that kind of stand out when you go and they just there's incomplete information, so they're not going to model well for you. But Tom mckibbon, Burnt Weisberger, and Jordan Smith. If you go in and look at these guys like they're pretty green, like across the board with the stats that we do have on them, it's just they don't have some of the other stats for them, and that's why they don't really pop in the model. And then you go in and you like pop things open and you look at like Tom mckibbon, who mainly plays over on the euro tour, and you see, like going back to February, it's like fourth T twelve, T nine, Yeah, there's a cut in there, but T seven, T twenty three, T eight, there's a sixth out right, there's a second outright, you know, so there's a lot to like about what's going on in him. And then you go to go to Viisburger again and like, this guy hasn't been you know, hasn't been cut since since early since early March, and it's you know, it's a bunch of top twenty five, T twenty three, two twenty four. There's a T two T seven, there's a sixteenth outright, And so I think he's more of a placement market type guy. But again someone that just falls under the radar a little bit. Maybe even someone you could use in DFS if you're played. And then same deal you go with like Jordan Smith, and this is a guy that like you're you're just playing for a for a spike with him, but the odds are gonna be astronomical on him. So who really cares? You have T two, you have you have a couple of T two's in there.
You have a bunch of T T twenty one, T twenty three, T.
Twenty four like stuff like that, Like guy that can fight, Yeah, he got a couple of cuts in there along the way.
But another dude that can can spike and can do themselves.
So again, those are three dudes that I just noticed as I scrolled down in the model, and I'm like, you know, why aren't these guys rating well? And it's just because it's an incomplete stat profile, and so they're just not going to get the same weight in the model that a lot of these other guys are. But I think there's a lot to like about those three dudes. And like I said, I don't know if it's an outright bet. I don't know if it's a placement market bet. I don't know if it's head to head. Just dig around, find a way that you think that you have an edge with one of those dudes, and you know whatever, maybe if you live in DFS state, maybe it's DFS.
Yeah, wes has bet all three of those guys I think in the past.
Yeah, I bet I've bet a lot of Weesberger this year who has really played well, you know, lost that live contract and he's obviously won here he won the first time actually here at Renaissance when they held this event twenty nineteen was twenty two unders.
Sovsburger.
Mckibbon has been another guy that's been really playing very well. Lost in that playoff, I believe a couple of weeks ago to Marcel Seem. But he's always on the first page of the leaderboard on the DP World Tour events.
Yeah, it's one of those things like if you if you just hit like scrolling like Stroskate off the t last twenty four rounds, he's second in this field, right, Like it's just like it's one of those deals Stroskane approach.
He's tenth in this field. You know, It's just he.
Doesn't have all the other staff that I was looking for, Like there's no Bogie avoidance stats on him or like whatever, you know, total driving opportunities gained.
We don't have anything.
So he doesn't he didn't. He doesn't model out very well. But like he's he's got He's got some game. There's no doubt about that. Like dude is uh, dude's got off the t Dude's got approach, and we like that whenever we're talking about this guy.
So you know, we'll figure it out.
Maybe he's a maybe he's a head to head, maybe he's a grouping, maybe he's something, but uh, there'll be some bets in there on him for sure.
Guys.
All of our picks you can find over at vison dot com slash picks, so go in, take a look, see what is going into the accounts.
Again.
We will keep those updated up until when this thing te's off over there and in Scotland. And if you want Wes's right up, that's over a Vison dot com as well for West for Kelly. Good luck on all your Scottish open bets. M.
