Long Shots: VSiN's Golf Betting Podcast2025 The Valspar Championship: Golf Betting Preview, Picks, and Best Bets
Get ready for an in-depth golf betting preview of the The Valspar Championship! Matt Brown, Kelley Bydlon, and Wes Reynolds break down the top players, Copperhead Course analysis, key stats, and value picks to help you make informed betting decisions. Discover the latest odds, betting strategies, and best odds for this elevated event.
This is long Shots Vison's premiere golf betting podcasts.
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin.
He as long Shots Peason's golf betting podcast here on the Visa Podcast Network. I am Matt Brown alongside Wes Reynolds and Kelly Bidlin, where we will take you through our thoughts and picks for the Ballast Bar Championship over at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida. But before we do that, a quick reminder, guys, everything we do absolutely free here on this podcast, so please go ahead subscribe, rate review. If you're watching this over on the YouTube, go ahead hit that light button and let us know in the comment section how you were going to be betting this tournament. Guys, we were, you know, fortunate enough. I guess I should say to come out somewhat minimally damaged here or on the right side of things from this past week at the Players, despite the fact that obviously none of us had Rory getting it done, so I have missed out on every out right. Russell Henley top ten, Eck Michael Kim top twenty, top ten, Doug Gim.
Top forty, eck.
But I at least got through with the Tommy Fleetwood top twenty, Aaron Rye top thirty. Berger did get it done over Tom Kim, and then thank god, we got to a playoff in which we were able to bet one of the best golfers in the world, if not arguably the best golfer in the world right now, given the state of what's going on with Scotty Scheffler versus a guy who had never been in a playoff before in not just a sudden death format, but a three hole aggregate in which those three holes started out with a par five, and he's the best par five player in the world. And then one of the most nerve racking holeser is in whole number seventeen there on. So I mean, you know, Wes, as I look back on this, you know, not my style to bet the super short shots. Anybody that's ever been anyone who's been listening to us for the last few years knows that. So if you know, if Scotty gets home, if Rory gets home, pretty good chance I don't have him. So I'm gonna have to either you know, break even off of the uh you know, matchups and head to heads and things like that, and placement markets that have got going on or fortunate enough to get into a playoff like we saw with this one, and just led up on Rory.
Yeah.
Look, I thought, Rory, if he hits his irons like he did last week where I think he ended up fifth on approach, gained almost eight shots over four rounds, then he's the best guy in the world. And and we and we saw that last week. He also putted very well. So yeah, for me, it was the placement markets that carried the day. I really had nobody in contention. Patrick Cantley was on the periphery and then he got to within two of the lead and then bogey two straight, so he was out of it. But it was really the placement markets. I got to give a hat tip to our to our partner Kelly Bidlin here because he was mentioned in Seawou Kim briefly on this Lolling Shots pod last week, and I thought, well, Seawu Kim, when I'm doing my placement market stuff on Wednesday, Well, Seawou, you know, good on Pete Dye. He's won here before I'll play him for a top forty. I needed Eagle to get into the top forty has he finished t thirty eight. That was the decider that actually made me make a couple dollars last week despite not having anybody in the mix. But yeah, Rory in the playoff makes a birdie on that par five and then JJ Spahn. You know, you get your one back of one of the best players in the world, one of the best players that really one of the best players of the era, and he airmailed.
It on seventeen.
You know, it's like, that can't be that long, and it was, and it went right into the water, and JJ Spahn was done in the playoffs.
So best finish.
I get, well, he's won on the tour before, but it does put jjspond in the top twenty five in the world. But obviously that's a very little solace when you could win the biggest event of your life. But Rory McRoy I look looking pretty promising. Maybe this is finally the year at the Masters where he breaks through. He's been trying to do it since twenty fifteen when that career Grand Slam and.
Price got cut. I think I saw some six to one out there at some shops this morning.
Kelly.
Hat tip to the thousand dollars Uber ride to get his old woods and everything back down to him. He didn't like the new version of Taylor Maid's Woods and faw and a driver in Faaraway would so he he got him shipped from his house. One thousand dollars later, he goes out and I think he'll be fine after winning the players there with that twenty five million dollar prize pool. So good on that Uber driver with that. But you know, you and I were texting during the day. I know you ended up being able to turn a profit in this thing just because of the playoff as well. And you know, I it's a deal to me. I know one fifty isn't for everybody's bankroll, Kelly, but like it's it wasn't sudden death. And the reason I was so adamant about Roy McElroy, anybody that follows me on Twitter saw I said, Hey, I respect JJ spond his game.
I'm betting Roy McElroy.
H'm betting him very heavily in this playoff is because it was a three hole aggregate and then you had to look at the makeup of the three holes as well.
Right, you start out with a par five.
Roy McRoy is one of the if not the best par five players in the world, and so he comes out with an instant advantage. Then you go to the one one of the most intimidating holes in all of professional golf with a guy who's never been in a playoff before. Who's going to more likely to blink in that scenario in those amongst those two guys. And at that point, if the first two holes go like I think, then you just play eighteen kind of normal, which is exact what Roy did.
You just play it kind of bland or whatever. You go and you win the championship.
And so yeah, it's a different strategy if it's a sudden death type thing. But with it being a three hole aggregate and the holes that were involved in that playoff, it's why I was so confident in Rory there in that playoff.
Yeah, I love it, Love that you love that you texted me that it was minus one fifty still in a couple of shops, because I think it closed like minus one ninety before we got to Monday at certain places and everything you just said, right, I mean, the three hole aggregate like that makes a huge difference. Having a part five involved when those two players are going at it with each other is a huge difference.
And look, it's no slight to JJ Spin.
He's a model darling, right, Like we've talked about him for years on this podcast.
We have burned plenty of good money away on the guy.
I wish I could say he's won me more than he has, but you know, he's been bet fairly off, and so I think the other only other thing, it was actually still a.
Little bit of a small loser for me overall. The one of those tournaments.
Look, we talked about it in detail last week, but with all the variants that comes into play, with all the water, for me, it was dialed down a little bit on what you're betting on matchups in top twenties and stuff like that. And this is kind of the time of year where I usually try to start sinking more money into those markets. And it's just good cap on a lot of these guys, because if I just kind of blanket bet top twenties on all of them, I would have had a great tournament. But some of these guys that chose just to go outright top five on or skipping matchups, it's just a little frustrating, but The last point on Rory I just want to make matts is when we do have these conversations about win equity, and I think you just broke down, you know, really really well just to the end of the tournament and why that bet was good for the timing of it.
But you know, we talked.
About last week, said I said two weeks ago, I was probably two weeks ago, it was probably about as high on Rory McElroy as I had been in a couple of years.
And then he didn't look all that.
Great at the API, and you're hearing these stories about we saw him struggling approach.
We heard the reports about the.
Woods being switched out and stuff, and it's it's tough for me to go and approach and bet a golfer that's going through that type of stuff, no matter what their name is. But end of the day, that's the name that comes at the top of the leaderboard because he's the class player left in the field that has a chance to go out and win it. And for a bunch of guys that that kind of you know, I felt like it felt like we've had a few of these weeks this year that man, anybody want to go win this event like that. I know the conditions are rough, but does anybody want to go win this? And the class player is always the guy who hangs around, hangs around like Teddy KGB right, just hanging around and uh then comes out on top.
And that was what Rory did.
Well, we are heading, we're staying in Florida.
We're gonna wrap things up here with the valspar We talked about that at Innisbrook Resort over in Palm Horbert Harbor outside of Tampa. The Copperhead Course. If you go in, you look, guys, you can stay there, you can play. They have multiple courses, but this is the one they're going to be playing west. We've got a par seventy one that's still pretty long with an interesting makeup. Not near as much water this week though as we saw this past week, but still a course that is going to challenge these guys a ton.
Yeah, absolutely in a Sprook Resort and Golf Club. Copperhead Course tree Line positional type of course right on the Penelas Peninsula. It's about twenty two miles north of downtown Saint Pete, west of Tampa. Originally designed in nineteen seventy four, redesigned by Wadsworth Golf in twenty fifteen.
It's kind of a typical of.
The usual Florida courses, though it's very much it looks like more of a course that would be in like North Carolina or South Carolina rather than in the state of Florida. But tree line, fairways, elevation changes, dog legs, sometimes even double dog leg holes.
So seventy three to.
Fifty two same length as a TPC sawgrass for the players last week, but a seventy one you got water, not on every hole, but on six of the eighteen holes, seventy four bunkers, five par threes, which is unique for a par seventy one, four par fives, and then nine par fours. Of course, the signature, I guess, stretch of closing holes. You know we have the bear trap at BG National. This time it's the snake pit sixteen to eighteen. Yeah, yeah, I guess the hiss sound for the for the snake pit. I believe on that statue where they welcome, it says and it names the holes it says are the most difficult holes on the PGA Tour. Play well on the snake Pit statue. But the sixteenth long par four, narrow fare away water on one side. Then you got a par three seventeenth, two fifteen. Most of the par threes are actually longer than two hundred yards here, so you got bunkers trees on both sides. And then the par four eighteenth, really difficult sloping green.
You're gonna get some high bow giese here.
So I believe I looked and I saw that no player ever that has won the spar has ever played the snake pit under par for the tournament.
So you are going to make bogies here.
You just got to minimize him fairways and rough rye overseed. The greens are bermuda, but it's a poa overseed. So now you get to this time of year with the weather in Florida where you get some of the bermuda kind of creep through a little bit. But these are really smooth greens. These are some of the smoother greens on the tour. About six thousand square feet on average, twelve on the stamp, so relatively average speed.
They made it a little bit.
More difficult a couple years ago because if you recall when you look at some of the winning scores, like it used to be really difficult in the early twenty tens, and then all of a sudden after COVID Sam Burns won this back to back year at seventeen under par, where you usually never saw winning scores that low.
You saw them like eight under, ten under, twelve under.
So then what they did is they moved the rough closer to the greens here and make your chip out of that thicker rough. And as a result you saw Taylor Moore I believe two years ago win at ten under, Peter mal naughty one at twelve unders. So this course has some bite and it is it is a little bit difficult here, I think.
If you want to compare Harbor Town Colonial.
I think is a good comparison where they play the Charles Schwab TPC South Wind in Memphis Country Club of Jackson, where they play the Sanderson Farms. You know a couple of the other TPC courses as well, but won't be a birdiefest here necessarily at Innisbrook.
Resort, Kelly.
As we look at the odds board, you will see we do have some big names that are playing this event, but it is certainly not the quality of the field that we've seen here over the last couple of weeks. Tommy Fleetwood at the top of the odds board right now at DraftKings anyway, all the way down to ten to one. This was fourteen to one yesterday. So Tommy Fleetwood taking a bunch of money here over the last twenty four hours. Xander Schoffle except Straca, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns, Tom Kim, Michael Kim, Corey Connors, Adam Scott takes us out to third to one. Everybody else thirty five to one or longer.
Kelly.
When I look at this, you look at the field and it's either guy. In my opinion, it's like, why would you play this right after a couple of after a couple of you know, elevated tournaments in a row. This course is much harder, much more challenging. Wouldn't these guys just want to break the field? To me, seems like guys that are either streaking right now and they want to stay on their hot streak are dudes that are looking for something right and like you look at Xander and he has not looked right yet. Justin Thomas after this past week where the first round he was just spraying it all over the tee and then it comes back the next day, shoots ten under, then goes sprays it again on Saturday late like he's he's trying to find some consistency. Obviously, Sam Burns, even despite his success on this course, is a shell of the golfer he was a year year and a half ago as well. So it's kind of a mixture of dudes that are riding the heat.
Heat.
Like Michael Kim, I know he got cut last week, but hey, listen, you know you're not going to make every single cut. Coreynor is obviously a good showing last week too, So it's just how we did, how we attack this board is going to be quite interesting.
Yeah.
No, I think you're spot on with that analysis.
It's you know, you just look at the names, right, Okay, Fleetwood, Struck uh uh, Michael Kim, Corey Connors, those you know, those guys Shane Lowry running hot and running hot in Florida? Why not why you know, why not play one more here before we move on? And then Yeah, like I said, a lot of guys are just still just trying to find something uh in their game.
So yeah, interesting, gonna be an interesting week.
I I always find this an interesting handicap every every single year because we really are uh, you know, there's a lot of similarities for last week, right, I know it doesn't I know it doesn't look like it, but for things that we're looking at statistically and course wise, there are similarities for last week. You're gonna have to be forced to club down off a driver on certain holes here. Driving distance is not something that's gonna be able to really be used as a weapon for for most of these guys this week. That that's something that's simler we have. No, you don't have the water and play. All the grass types are the same though, So yeah, I think I think you hit.
It the nail on the head, Matt.
I think for a lot of these guys, if you've been playing well, especially in Florida, Yeah, you're carrying that over for one more.
Week and you you will get some variants like in the winners, Like when I look at the recent history because I always put that in there because I want to see if we can get a clue of what type of player wins at a given course. Is it a bomber? Is a good approach?
Guys? It a good putter?
You've got I think a little bit of variance here, like Peter Malnatty won this thing last year at three hundred and one, and I think has since missed like fifteen of nineteen cuts or something.
So you'll get one off the radar. Taylor Moore was fifty.
Sam Burns won this back to back years in twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two, Paul Casey back to back years in twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen. Spee Furick like, you've seen class players win here, but you've seen bombs win here like Malnaughty, like Adam hadwin back in twenty seventeen, like Kevin Streelman in twenty thirteen, So you you do get I think a little a wide range of guys that have win here in terms of the type of player.
So it started to put together the thoughts here, Kelly, you kind of dove into it a little bit. Is what we're looking for here from guys, and as we put together these models and our disclaimer each and every week, we're not coders. We didn't code these models. We're using other people's skeletons and putting the information in waiting that to how we believed the importance to be and then see what it spits out and kind of put us as a guide for what we're doing. We're trying to put together our betting card each week here on this podcast and over at Vista dot com. And so you know, Kelly, you talked about distance not necessarily being a thing.
I didn't weigh it.
As always, we'll use that disclaimer as well as always. Distance can certainly help if you're accurate with it, but I don't want it to be a separator for me this week, so I did look at just off the team. I did a whole bunch of weighted stuff this week as opposed to just like normal, because it's a prett the eclectic field outside of the top names and stuff, and so I did the weighted stats as opposed to just the the blanket stats, and so weighted off the te weighted approach around the green things like that or whatever. And of course, with it being a difficult with it be as difficult as it is, let's let's avoid the bogie. So bogey avoidance. There's five par three, so we might as well know how these guys score on those. The most scorabel holes are the par fives. Are the only ones that play under par on the entire course, And so that's pretty the That's pretty much it for the model for me this week. And then after that it's you know, just good drive percentage. Can you can you keep it from from spraying and giving yourself like pretty bad looks in because even though there isn't water, there is a lot of trees, there are a lot of dog legs, there's a lot of odd angles and bad positioning you can put yourself in if you're wayward off the tee. So that's kind of where I went this week. Did you emphasize any of this stuff? Maybe more than you would have maybe maybe than the market does.
Actually, yeah, I think it's just kind of going back to last week. This is such a it's another heavy, heavy, heavy approach UH type model that we're look that we're looking at just a couple of the notes I caught from Run close It does work over at Bedspurts in his article this is and last night maybe you had these indears to it you just posted sorry I didn't have time to read yours head. Okay, no, today the uh but toughest course, toughest course to gain strokes off the tee, So just keep that in mind for this week, and that speaks a lot to the distance, right, you're not being able to take driver out on every hole, you're not allowed to not gonna be gaining a ton uh and lower uh. Only two courses on tour in regular rotation with shorter distance off the tea that's Pebble and Harbor Town. So just something to keep in mind with with what you're looking at off the t I attacked it very similarly as you did, Matt.
I think the.
Way if you are using sites like Rick Run Good like we are, I think the weighted stuff is really important. This week I did the same thing because I think once you get down to the mid range golfers kind of that time of the year, right, we've played a lot of the signature events here back to back, we haven't seen some of the some of the guys that you know aren't quite as good in a little bit, and you've got to kind of parse through the data of who's played and who's played at what events hero for the past couple months, because that definitely does matter. So look really heavy approach for me above, over half the approach shots these guys hit are gonna come for one hundred and seventy five plus yards, So tacked in the proximity buckets this week one hundred and seventy five plus.
Two hundred plus.
That two hundred plus kind of covers some of the par threes as well, if you want to look at it that way with you've got four of them one hundred and ninety five plus, I believe, So that was part of the reason why I weighed that a little heavier.
But yeah, otherwise Strop's gain approach.
You hit on it but off the tee, good drives accuracy off the tee, but really like this week, because guys are gonna be using all kinds of different clubs off these te's depending on the whole.
Par five's gained.
Like you said, Matt, it's gonna be really important for these guys to go score on these gotta score on the par five. So I wanted to factor that in some scrambling and bogie avoidance, and that was my whole model this week.
Wes.
You know, like we say, approach the kind of building block usually for that each and every week. But did you do anything differently there or is there anything that was more more of an outlier as you were building your model.
Not a ton.
Differently, I think approach is really your good baseline here. Going back to twenty fifteen, I believe the worst approach week was mal Naughty last year, and he was twentieth Like he was still pretty good on approach, but I think I think he was like really at the tops for putting and then around the green as well, so that's what won him the event. So approach for me one seventy five to two hundred two hundred plus, I think that's what you got.
To look at. You're gonna have some long irons here.
Good drives gained I felt was probably better than going like pure SGOTT or or something like that, because obviously good drives mean you could still miss the fairway and reach the green in regulation. These greens, by the way, not very big, so gir you could maybe look at it in contact bogy avoidance. This actually Copperhead features the lowest burdier better percentage of any course on the BGA Tour. A lot of that, too, is because of the snake pit, where you're gonna make like really big numbers potentially at the end of year round, but you're grinding out grinding up pars trying to avoid the bogies, and then with the thicker rough being moved around the green, the scrambling has actually gone down here. It's actually decreased to about sixty percent. I think it was like two thirds as of a couple of years ago. So I did look at a little bit of scrambling. You can also look at around the green. You're gonna always see overlap. I think between scrambling and strokes gained around the green.
I did look at a little strokes gain par five because those are.
The four easiest holes on the course, or are the four easiest holes, so you have.
To be able to score.
That's because you know you're probably gonna give one or two backs somewhere else. And then Kelly mentioned about the par threes. Three of the par threes are two hundred yards or longer and the other is just under that at one ninety five. So strokes gain par three two hundred two five I think you could certainly look at. And then I did like a little baseline putting this week because it is Bermuda, but it's dormant, so it's a poet trip oversea. But it's not like you know the Tory Pines or Pebble Beach poa where it's pure poa. So these are really smooth greens. And if you look at the putting, mal Natti I think was third here last year, Taylor Moore was ninth in the year he won, Burns was.
Eighth and third.
The only real outlier was Casey was forty third and twenty nineteen, but he was also number one t to green. So I think you want to look at that a little bit of putting this week, just for some context.
And that's basically all I did.
I am going to be interested whenever we get to everyone's card here because I'm starting to look around at some numbers that are available in certain guys, and it is it has been on the move here.
There was a bump today.
I'm glad you pointed that out, because there was a bump today because of.
The weather, and I put that in the column.
And look, the weather can change, obviously, but I was looking up at aki Weather and a couple other different sites. The drawbias based on wind is going to favor the Thursday morning Friday afternoon versus the Thursday afternoon and Friday morning.
The early Thursday wind gusts.
Are going to be at like eight, ten, twelve, maybe up to fifteen miles an hour, and I saw Thursday afternoon over thirty miles an hour.
So you know, that's why I did look at that.
Maybe I played a little bit too much when we get to our cards, a little bit too much of the drawbias. I think I have won in the afternoon, and I just played that on the bump because you did see some guys that all of a sudden, You know, if you're looking wherever you look, if you look at book by book, or if you look at like odds check or something, you're gonna see a lot of variants in some of these prices. And a lot of these afternoon guys certainly got bumped up, say for maybe a couple of the shorter priced guys that are like top three to five on the odds board, but everybody else got bumped up.
Yeah, this is I think this is a really interesting conversation. I don't know.
I think this is the first time we've look This is Tuesday afternoon when Pacific time that we are record. Just so everybody is aware, like Wes said, the most important thing West said, there is weather changes at the beginning, so make sure you can check back in on this.
I don't know how you guys do this.
We haven't really I don't know if we've really ever had this conversation. This doesn't mean necessarily that at this time I'm eliminating anybody that's in that afternoon start time on Thursday from my card, but I haven't bet them yet. I'm just telling you I haven't made any of those bets yet, and the morning ones, because this does happen, it doesn't get talked about enough there. The bets I've made so far are in the earlier wave, earlier tea times on Thursday. However, even those guys, I don't bet fully. I've bet at least something on them now because I think numbers will are gonna get shorter.
I've bet something on them now. I haven't staked them.
Fully though, of what I probably will have heading into the tournament, just because I want to see how this weather changes, if at all, over the next day and a half, thirty six hours or so before we.
Got to lock bets in.
So I don't know how you guys approach this. We haven't really had this conversation.
A ton.
I know there can be.
I think it's something you have to factor in your handicap and when you're looking at golf and you're looking at wins like this on a Thursday Friday. However, I think there's a lot of overreaction too when you start talking about possible bias drawbiases here.
Now, I think it's a great conversation, Kelly, because it is again one of these are forecasts.
Two. You know, there is.
A while you don't want to be playing in why you don't want to be playing in you know, twenty mine hour wins for sure, if it's not actually blowing twenty the whole time, and it's blowing more like fifteen, and the gusts don't actually hit that peak of the twenty eight twenty nine thirty and it's more just like the twenty two to twenty three min hour gus here and there. Yeah, it certainly, it certainly benefits the earlier tea times, there's no doubt about it. But it's not it's not so and so drastic that I would then at that point eliminate anybody from contingent because as you see right now, at least as it's forecasted, and you know Florida Florida weather hashtag handing, it gets mild on the weekends, and so anybody around would still be able to do whatever they need to do. So yeah, I didn't I didn't eliminate anyone. The only thing I did do. And I'll just go ahead and like, so I'll say so I I I really want So there's a matchup out there Will Saladoris and Sam Burns, and I think Sam Burns is a shell of the player right now than he was over the last year and a half.
That said, Saladoris has.
The afternoon wave and Sam Burns has the early wave, right, and so like in a head to head like that, I'll just pass on it, even though I really like Xaladoris over Burns. But given that Burns I think is going to start with a decent little leg up in that I did pass on that head to head just due to the weather.
Playing the drawbias, I think is probably better too.
If you're doing first round leader Now, if you're doing first round leader market, you don't want a bunch of afternoon guys that you played, you know, to fire your bullets. You want them pretty much in the morning. But it doesn't mean that a guy that's in the afternoon, that's in the poor end of the draw, maybe he's a few back going into the weekend, doesn't mean that player can't make up ground necessarily.
Once the conditions get good for everybody.
Yeah.
The other just to add on to that west the other thing. If you're just gonna target first round leader, guess what you can. You can put those bets in three minutes before these guys tee off, and you've got a much better idea of what that weather looks like for that round as they're trying to figure out what the old four days are gonna look at.
So I think it's interesting.
I think, just to add on to what you were saying, Matt, as far as bets, like, there's there's one other outright that that I bet that it's on the move.
It's an afternoon guy. I'll just say it to Shane.
Lowry, but he's getting bet down and there's still a thirty five to one out there.
Okay.
I want to get that in though, because I'm gonna get that in because I don't want to be betting it at twenty to one and all of a sudden maybe this stuff clears up, you know, or I mean, if you guys watched I mean, you know anybody's listening, if you guys watched that tournament last week too, Guess what these guys are damn good at being like all right, there's a gust, hold up, hold up, Okay, it's died down.
Let's hit our shot. Boom, let's go.
I mean, this is so kind of what you were saying, that is there. I know I've got the weather up right now, But is there a huge difference between you know, eighteen miles an hour at eleven am and twenty miles an hour at one pm with what these guys can do now, I don't know, but it is something for you to be aware of.
A good point too, is probably you're gonna get a little more variance in the odds because obviously there's a big college basketball event that's gonna start actually later later this evening if you get it on Tuesday, So there's an NCAA tournament. So sometimes you get guys that's kind of like when we get to the fall events for golf. They're knee deep in football, both college and NFL, so they're not focusing as much so some of these books are gonna be quicker and some of them are going to be slower to move any type of adjustment. So that's why I usually don't see this much variance on the grid. But you know you mentioned a player earlier. I'm seeing like Adam Scott at at fifty to one someplaces, in thirty to one at some places. So you don't typically get that kind of variance, even for what is not a major championship or a signature event PGA Tour event, you usually don't get that, but you certainly have it right now. I think largely because of the weather, and also because of the lack of focus being that it's after a signature event, and maybe some of the odds makers not paying as much attention.
So, guys, I threw in the stuff in my model this week, and I did, like I said, a lot of this was weighted in mine, and then I did a thirty round in a twenty round Stepstraca might be the class of this field right now, given how he's playing. He was number one in one version of model, number two in the other version of the model. No surprise to anyone who saw what happened last week and I'm glad I didn't have to eat my words. Alex Smalley is uh is is showing up popping pretty good, Lucas Glover, who had a good showing, also showing pretty well. And then we get into like the you know again the household names and Tommy Fleetwood and things like that. But you know, I my card is a little bit more, a little bit more spread out this week. Not that I think that there's gonna be a ton of variants here, but I do think that the biggest of the big names scare me less than they do in a normal week. And so you know, if I think the class of the field is Septstraca as good as he's playing, I'll, uh, you know, I'll take him on with some of these other guys. It's kind of how I went about all of this. So, Kelly, you put the data in, you spit things out. What ended up on your card?
Yes, Cepstraca is damn good. Let's go out ahead to hand. Were you doing a side bet or something?
Uh this week?
Is that what's put on?
Yeah? I bet him.
I bet him at eighteen to one, he's uh start him on the outright card. I bet him at eighteen. Look, I get it, the prices are getting short. It's uh, you're staring. What did we just pull Tommy Fleetwood at ten to one? How many times he won in America again, guys?
Yeah, exactly. I was gonna say that because he was number one. Yeah, he was number he was number one on my model this week. But it's like, I'm not gonna bet him at ten to one. I saw him at ten to one at Caesars, Like, no.
Thank you. If he beats me, well done, Tommy Ladd, Congratulations.
It's tough because of everything you just said, right, Mat, It's some of these guys that have rated out highly for us for weeks and we've bet him, but you bet him at longer prices. But you do have to make the adjustment in your mind. Right, Hey, this field isn't as strong. So look, I got an eighteen on Strock. I think he's mainly like fourteen fifteen in that range.
I don't know. Eighteen was good enough for me. I did buy in on him.
I played him heavier though, Top ten, Top twenty, Top twenty, even money out there at MGM two to one and top ten Market played him all the way down there.
I mean, he's just again very similar to last week.
A lot of what you're looking for here seventeenth and good drives, tenth on approach, good in those proximity any ranges we're looking at tenth and par five. Scoring the results of this season, I mean, one win and what are we talking about? Five top twenties in the last seven tournaments for him, it's pretty damn good. He's only played here twice, miscut, so a little bit of concern there. I don't think this is one that I need a ton of course history yet, but you know, you always like to like these guys who have seen it once or twice, especially with it, you know, all the dog legs you were talking about and stuff West. I think it's important to get a feel for this stuff a little bit more, at least haven't played once or twice. So Straka eighteen to one, and then Shane Lowry was the other outright I mentioned those are only two outrights. I played Lowry at thirty five to one. Feels the same as what was it the cognizant.
We were having the same conversation.
Like, given the field, I don't really understand why he's that long at a couple of the books.
I mean a lot of the other books. Like you're saying, West, I've seen him.
At eighteen to one and twenty to one, So shop around if you're looking to get in on these guys. But I played Lowry and Straka in the outrights. Those are only two outrights. I have a lot of finishing positions and tournament matchups. I don't know if you want me to roll through those now, Matt.
Well, well we can swing back around to those wes as you were building your outright card. What does that look like?
Yeah, and what Kelly said about Lowry modeled high. Did not play him this week. He is up to thirty five to one by the way at DraftKings as we record, So that's a big bump because I think he's in the afternoon. I mentioned Fleetwood my number one in the model, justin Thomas not too far behind. I just thought they were a little short. So we're going to start the card with two Kims for the price row of one. This week Tom and Michael here. Tom Kim thirty three to one at BETMGM. I think he's in the high twenties or around thirty.
At some places.
First time playing here. I usually don't like first timers. He was T forty two last week at the Players, but he did lead the field for approach. He gained almost ten shots with the irons and the potter d lost five on the green, so that's why he didn't really finish.
Up there in the early draw.
He's paired with Mam and I Burns two at the last three champions Here at the vals Bar. This is positional driving, and I think that's the best for Tom Kim Off the t's not really a bomber, but some of these positional courses, I think he knows how to attack. So Tom kim thirty three to one. Michael who I got this morning at forty. I think he's still at thirty five out there. If you look at the run of form, second at the Waste Management T two, T thirteen at the Genesis, T thirteen in Mexico, T six at the Cognizance. So it's like, okay, maybe the Players is where you want to back him. Well, he missed the cup by one stroke. He just was one off the number. But so I'm gonna buy him. I'm on the dip here. He is striking the ball beautifully he's really in probably the best form of his career. He's a one time winner on the two years ago at the John Deere Classic.
But I'm gonna.
Buy you know, maybe zig when you're supposed to zag here because a lot of people liked him last week and he didn't show, and look, there's nothing to be said for that.
You're gonna miss cuts at the players.
And the wind was all messed up, and that'll really be evident by the next player I have on my card. You know, the wins kind of got him these guys sometimes.
So Michael came.
It's like it wasn't even a bad tournament, right, It's one bad round.
He had a bad round and he ended up he was seventy five in the first round. Then he shot a good sixty nine on Friday. You know, some of these guys last week did get the bad end of the draw, and I think Michael Kim was probably one of them, and a guy that is going to be in the tougher end of the draw this week.
But I said I was going to play him, and man, what a whirlwind this guy was. Last week.
Will's Alatorres got bumped up to forty five to one and I just played the number because he's as low as twenty eight. That kind of was like his opener twenty eight or thirty. And then because he's in the tough end of the draw. If you recall if you were watching the weekend last week in between some college basketball conference tournaments, he was tied for the lead with five holes left to play on Saturday, and then you started getting thirty mile an hour gust wins, and he took a quad on fourteen, double bogie on fifteen, part sixteen, double seventeen, and then bogied eighteen. So he was eleven underpar, tied for the lead, finishes at two under, ends up finishing tied for thirtieth. But he gained on both approaching with the putter, So I'm I'm gonna actually buy on that, even though he's in the bat and the drama and to kind of forgive that, he played very well and just had a bad stretch of holes, and you know, so maybe maybe getting a little bit ignored this week. But I do like Xalatorus. I think he'll play well even and I got very close on him.
Yeah, heah very close.
I go ahead and say so while I bailed on the matchup I did. I did play Zala Tauris out right, and it was it was like, you know, I wanted some exposure to him. It seemed like if you were watching the tournament, I mean it seemed like he's kind of started to figure things out again, you know, and like, yeah, I look Golf's heart hashtag Golf's heart, right. I mean, like you go out, you have a couple of bat holes and it blows up your tournament. That's just that's the way golf goes sometimes, especially on a course like that. A little less evident here on this course with something like that. So yeah, I did pull the trigger on valid tours. He is, like you said, Wes on the bat end of the draw if that matters to you guys out there. But you know, the price was just not indicative of where I think he's at right now with his game.
Yeah, starting to show some real consistency. So I wouldn't be surprised. Maybe it's this week, maybe it takes a couple months, but he's gonna break through, I think, and get back in the winner circle at some point. A guy trying to get in the winter circle for the first time. That was runner up three weeks ago at the Cognizant. Jacob Bridgeman let's call it about sixty to one on average right now, second at the Cognizant, top fifteen at the Arnold Palmer. Last week he finished fiftieth at the Players. But he gets in the top one hundred and the official World Golf ranking for the first time in a squir It's a milestone.
For some of these young players.
He's just a guy in his mid twenties fourteenth and strokes, getting total seventeenth and putting this season. Those numbers are better when you just take the players that are in this field, I think ninth and twelfth respectively. But Jacob Bridgeman think he could go well once again in Florida, and then that guy that's played well in Florida. But you really you get almost two different players. When you look at this guy, when you look at his approach and off the tee, it's like, oh my god, how's this guy even on the tour. And then when you look at the short game, it's like he might be one of the best in the world because he has one of the best short games in the world. Christian bezeiden Hout, who I believe now is consensus sixty six to one. And I got him at at around seventy six on tour for scrambling, ninth for putting eleventh round the green top ten here at Copperhead last year. Seventh for a category that's called distance from the edge of the fairway, which I didn't model, but I looked at it this week. It shows that you know, he's getting some of the proper angles even when he misses the fairways, because the approach numbers are atrocious if you look at this guy for the season, but I can count on him being solid or rock solid and steady around the greens. Just needs to hit some better shots and I think that he could and contend like he did last year. So Bizaiden Howet and then the two triple digit guys, and I got him at one hundred to one. He was actually a little bit better at some places, but he was like in all of these stat categories and I looked at the for him and I was like, well, what's going on. He really hadn't been in the mix that much this year. But Nikolai Hoyguard at at one hundred to one, who missed the cut at the Players last week, but ninth and bogie avoidants, thirteenth for approach, seventeenth for putting, leads the tour in greens and regulations second and three putt avoidance.
He can hit the greens, he can grind out pars. He's a really.
Talented guy and he's won big events in Europe, but it's a transition to be able to win on the PGA Tour.
It is different.
But if he hits all those greens like he does and grinds out the pars, I think he get hit some really good shots. So Nikolai. By the way, Rasmus is also in this field this week, So Nikolai hoyguard hundred to one. And then a guy you might have seen on the first page of the leaderboard if you tuned in on Sunday, never quite made a move. I was trying to think, Okay, who do I want to take a shot at if I want to take on Rory when Rory I think had a one shot lead when we got the rain delay, and I was actually on a program on Sunday with Matt Brown and I was kind of and I know Matt had a little Tom Hogy know hopefully he got in the clubhouse and just was looking at guys.
I was like, Okay, who's down the board.
And then I got a text from a friend after my spot and I was like, well, how about Danny Walker.
Now, Danny Walker never made a move.
I think he ended up t six ten hunder par PGA Tour rookie earned his card this season. He was top thirty on the corn Ferry list last year six at the Players actually his best career PGA Tour finished. Now keep in mind he's only been on the tour for three months, but he was second for off.
The team six and greens in regulation.
He got the last spot in the field last week as an alternate and actually made the cut on the number.
Talk about a guy that had a bat end.
And a draw and ends up in the top six, So you know, worth the shot here at at one hundred and twenty five to one, I think for Danny Walker, and you know, some of these triple digit guys are worth it. I was trying to see who barely did not make the cut for me.
I considered Matt Wallace.
He was another guy considered he's in the early draways but actually had a couple of good events here I think he was seventh here two years ago. I did consider him also, Andrew Puttenham did model kind of high for me, but.
Ended up not going on the outright.
Some of these guys, though, will be probably on placement markets for me.
Yeah, I I went, I did a weird I bet this tournament weird, just like I couldn't I couldn't decide how to do it.
And so basically I played the Sala Taurus outright.
And then that's kind of the way that I would normally play an outright. And then I took a whole bunch of other dudes. And then let's just assume that you're let's assume that your typical betting unions one hundred dollars on a player or something like that. I'm basically taking twenty percent of that and then playing an outright with him, and then putting eighty percent on a placement market on all these guys, because I think their win equity is not great even if they get all the way up there. But I don't want to miss out on the long numbers attached them. But like again, my model gave me a bunch of guys with big numbers next to their names. Is like ranking out very well, and you dig into their stats and you and you start to see like why that they're they're they're showing up, the way that they're showing up, and the things that are going on with all of that. And so because of that, I don't have much of a choice here, and so I just played a bunch of placement market stuff this week basically more than anything else. But I played Zalataurs full staked on the outright. And then this is all a pool of guys that again, there will be some outright on these dudes, but it'll be various placement market stuff on them. With all these so Bridgeman won as well Wes for me. Bridgeman modeled out incredibly well for me, and you go in, you start to like dig into his stats and you realize why, been really really good Joel Damon, dude, Like Joel Damon's actually been playing really good golf, you know. And so you go in and you look at Joel Damon and like, I was really shocked as to what you're getting out of Damon right now. But he's really getting it done off the tee. And as we said, guys, like hey, this is a this is a positional course, right, like if it's if it's off the tee and approach, like, look what he's what have you done for me lately? Well, look at those numbers right there, right, I mean, like, so keep it in the fair way, get me on the green. Well, then we don't have to worry about your deficiencies around the green or whatever and all of that, and so uh, hopefully you can figure out how to put it in the ocean. And so Joel Damon a guy for me that I was really shocked that he did as well as he did Sam.
Ryder as well.
I also considered him, Yeah, sam.
Ryder twelfth in one of the versions of the model for me eleventh in one of the other ones. And you start to go across and it's like he doesn't do anything exceptionally exceptionally well, but he is green at least across the board in all the categories. And you know that for me is always gonna pique my interest with these guys when you go in and you start to look, and so Riders one of the guys where it's Kelly, You're you're pulling up to this.
Was enough chip this week.
But see this was what was interesting to me about this, right, so despite his off the tee struggles, he has figured out how to grind and scrape his way to not getting cut and also still still kind of climbing the leader board. Uh here and there. Obviously the putter has been has been saving him in a couple of these tournaments. But again we're not emphasizing the driver here in in this tournament, you know. And so let's see, look at the farmers like you gotta be long at the farmers, right, like you gotta be long at waste management, like these are the these are deals where we're not getting we're not getting that out of this guy here. So I'm I'm gonna I'm gonna trust model here on this one. I didn't hate the stat profile. So Sam Ryder as well, Wes, you had a gut play I think either last week or the week before the model. If I go a little further back, obviously stuff that we're dealing with that has to be drawn from from way back, and then you see the a little bit success this week. But I'm gonna play Bud Cawley as well. Bud Cauley is green across the board. Now these are being drawn obviously from from from a bit back, because he's been dealing with injury and stuff and all that. But weaker field maybe riding a little bit of that big momentum heading into this thing. He is on the bat end of the draw. But if he can kind of weather the storm figure to lively and literally, uh, maybe we can get a decent little spike performance. But again, this is less about the outright than it is about the the finishing position market here with Bud Cauley. But I mean not a lot to hate right there. Right, I mean, like you start to see like, Okay, you got cut in Puerto Rico. Do we really care about that? But you make the cut at the Coignzing, you make the cut at the Phoenix, you make the cut over at the Sony. I mean like you're you're doing some stuff. And this is a guy that's still been working his way back and culminated here into T six at the Players. Maybe we can ride that momentum here into this tournament. So Bud Cawley in Puerto Rico and go T six the players, Come on, man, come on, but get it together. But tur but but but might have liked to mike the Margarita is too much down there, you know, you know, like I had a good time yeah, but sounds like a good time on vacation down in Puerto Rico, all right, and came back to work at the Players. That's that's the way to do it. If you're gonna pick one or the other to uh to go on vacation, go on vacation Puerto Rico. Don't go on vacation at the one that has a twenty five million dollar prize pool.
Uh.
And then Gally Matt because God knows, I would be a disaster at these places like Hawaii the beginning of the year.
Oh God, to be miscut every time, but to spend more time about the beach.
Oh I skipped Michael Kim. Michael Kim, that's a top ten, though not a top twenty. That's the top ten on Michael Kim because I'm I'm jumping right back on the horse.
Yeah we all are.
Let's get I'm not fading him. I mean he's sixth in one model, he's fourth in the other. I mean, the guy's just been a model of consistency. I'm not expecting him to make every single cut. Like it's not like he's an elite, elite golfer, but we're.
Gonna lose money at some point. But he's it was one bad round last.
Week again, one bad round. Yeah, Like he's not super elite, but he's good enough to, you know, grind out these top twenties and top tens and stuff. And I think in a field like this, maybe a top ten. So I'm gonna play kind of the the higher end of the tails for him. And then West can probably speak to this fella better than me. But I just I always dig into the model and see guys that the reason that they're not ranking highly is just because they don't have enough data. And so there's always guys that are gonna be buried that you're just never gonna be able to fully to fully get a grasp of what they've got going on. And one thing that I started, I started to dig in and Rasmus near guard Peterson. Yeah, a twenty five year old who has had a pretty decent amount of success over on the European inside of things. He did go down to Puerto Rico and finished second there in that one, getting thirteen and a half total strokes. We don't have full strokes gain data from that tournament. But you start to look at these stat profiles on this guy Wes and like, he does a lot of stuff really well, and so why not, why don't we spike here in this tournament with with old Rasmus. So we're throwing in a ticket on him as well. And again a lot of placement market equity on him.
He's a young Dane and there's a lot of good young games in the game.
Now.
Of course, the two hoy Guards but played at Oklahoma State, actually got you know we talk about with the Corn Ferry Tour, if you win three times, you get what's called the Battlefield Promotion. Well he got that on the Challenge Tour last year and and got to be on the on the DP World Tour. I believe he's already got a couple of runner ups. He's you know, got some amateur pedigree. He's played on a lot of those European teams, the Arnold Palmer Cup, and you know we're these amateurs, the boys team Chamchampionships. So this is a guy, you know, he hadn't one yet on the big tour, but you feel like it's kind of only only a matter of time.
Guy's got a lot of talent and.
Played it a good program in Oklahoma State, so I could definitely see him going well here.
So yeah, at agree on there, Kelly.
Yeah, yep.
You're getting a lot of these Europeans, these Europeans that got in as top ten rankings.
On there that weren't otherwise eligible.
They get into some events, they don't get the full status, so they've got to take advantage and maybe uh neerguard Peterson's going to do just that this week.
Not good enough for a headshot yet though at least from Rick Gamon got good enough for it.
Oh.
One thing I do want to jump in and mention on Michael Kim, who Matt and I are both playing in some regard this week. Michael Kim right now is like fifty fourth in the world in the official World Golf Ranking. And the reason why that is kind of relevant is because I believe if he gets in the top fifty, if he doesn't have it already, I'm trying to check his eligibility he gets into the Masters, So he's got a couple of weeks before he does that. So you've got to be in that top fifty if you haven't won, if you don't have eligibility otherwise by April first, I believe. So I was looking on the list. I was looking on my Master's eligibility list. He is not in yet, but if he gets another really good finish, like he's contending for a win like he did a few weeks ago, he's gonna get in the Masters. So you got to get in that top fifty, and he is just right outside.
So a little bit of extra motivation never hurts.
Yeah, tell me what about that placement market stuff for you?
Yeah?
Great, call there, Wes, because that is he ain't. I mean we were talking at the beginning. Hey, some of these guys aren't going to stop because they're hot. He's hot, but he needs to he needs to keep picking up.
He's gonna be playing every single week too, so he's gonna be playing in Houston and San Antonio trying to get that Master's invite.
Yeah, make Maga three for three on Michael Kim. I'm right back on him to a top ten, top twenty for Kim for me this week as well. It's kind funny you bet them both West because I actually ended up with Michael Kim in a matchup over Tom Kim so, uh, Tom Kim got to prove it to me a little bit more where his games at. But I hear you, this course of course designed well for his game. The approach stats last week did look great for Tom, so we'll see if he can keep it up. Okay, So I did bet Fleetwood. I bet him top ten, top twenty, though I stilled down to there. Uh played plus it's plus one forty on the top ten. I laid minus one forty forty on the top twenty. I'm okay with that. With this week, with this field, it's a like we said, there's not a lot of class players in this field at the top that I'm really worried about. Fleetwood has been incredibly consistent with the iron play the.
Best player that can't win, Like he's just the best player that can't win. He least the most consistent best player that cannot win.
That's it's like America and Canada because that's change.
I can't win.
I can't It's fine.
Yeah, so yeah, top ten and then I am so, I am so this is this is a big moment on the pod, at least for me. I'm finally on the same page with Wes Reynolds on a hoy Guard. So Nikola, I played a top ten out of West, so I'm gonna might have to add for the outright. I'm not missing out on the Hoyguard party. I couldn't even believe we got the same Hoyguard so great, same sard thing.
I was doing the same thing, and if you are, if you use a lot of the websites we do.
I forget which one he brought up, but it's a great point of just kind of scrolling down and being like, all right, like maybe not a lot of tournaments that this is getting added up to, but man, these are some good numbers. And yeah, Nikola, I was one of the guys that jumped out to me West. So I'm in on a top ten and I think I'm gonna go add and outright, so you're not partying without me at the end of the week. So top ten's on Fleetwood's Straca Hoyguard against Strac I did betting outright on then top twenties Fleetwood Straka and Michael Kim.
And Michael Kim on the top ten too, I missed him, and.
Then tournament matchups for me so far Michael Kim over Tom Kim Smally who.
Just won't go away. I don't know that this is the perfect course for.
Him, but man, he has been consistent as hell this year. I laid minus one twenty over in a matchup over Victor Hoblin novelin looks lost right now.
That was a oh I will I will bet that that.
Circa my friend.
And then another one over Hoblin all day long.
Yeah, another one that jumped out to me.
You might be interested in Matt because I believe we brought this name up last week of he kind of was popping in all our models and yeah, he's kind of top fifteen again. Not in love with him enough to go bet top twenty or top ten or an outright, that's for sure. But Grayson Sigg plus money over Matt Kucher. I don't know if I've seen Matt Kocher in like seven months, so I know he actually has played like looking into it. But uh, Grayson sid like good approach numbers. I'm getting plus one oh two on that matchup bet. That was one that really jumped out to me as well. So a couple of matchups I really like this week in those two Smally over six coucher.
I have a holy one this last week Smalley.
Over did he? I mean I totally missed it.
If you did, didn't he? Who had the holy one?
That's the time was the tipebreaker here.
I'm trying, I'm I know what you're talking about. I'm trying to remember. God, I'm trying to remember our guy toast he had it in the practice round.
I saw that when it was a damn practice round. It's gotta be.
It's gotta be on Google somewhere. I see these two actively working on it. So yees, because sorry, Cooch, if I sold you short, I think I think I even saw the shot, and I can't remember for the life of me.
Uh it was your boy?
Okay, Okay, I am this podcast.
On this podcast, Matt Brown just confused Keeting.
Bradley with Matt Kocher.
Guys, I was thinking of old dudes that still play golf. You know what else, there's like a twenty years difference. Then it's maybe not that much. Sorry about I will say one other matchup that did at least peak my interest that is being offered in far away lands, and I I don't know if it will if it will pop at any of the books over here. If they do, that would be interesting. Is uh. They're they're they're posting smally versus Clanton kind uh and like again, I like Luke Clayton's game. I think he's gonna win a bunch of tournaments like later on in life like small. He's on like this uber heater right now, and I would I would play that again. But that's in uh, that's in far away places. It has not been posted state side yet. But sometimes they're late to the party on some of these matchups. We don't get them until a little bit later. So we'll we'll see how that, how that pans out.
You know, I'm surprised, Okay, guy, Okay, other guys that wrote down. I did want to bring this up because these are guys that I'm still considering bets on. Little surprise, Matt didn't go back to Justin Thomas this week.
But maybe he's just sick of them, uh.
I think, Look, I think you'retting twenty to one plus on JT. Just the guy he's been over his career with this field. I'm okay, anybody out there looking at JT. Betts this week, I didn't do it. I don't think I'm gonna get there, but I understand good.
I am looking on my screen right now and at the south point right here in Vegas and also some uh some faraway places. Uh, justin Thomas is as high as like plus one forty. I'm assuming this is accurate against Tommy Fleetwood. Interesting, Yeah, that tickles different. And I think plus one thirty five at station casinos.
Yeah, not Tommy as minus one sixty five.
The uh And then did you see that? Yeah?
I know, I met. I looked at that price.
I was like, what's that?
Did you say you bet Glover Lucas Glover?
No, I was saying he was top five in Yeah, every model, every everything, like Glover Glover ranked out super super super. Well, I'll tell you I didn't go back to J t J. I got to see some sort of consistency from J. Like I I there's there's he's he's he's good one tournament off the t he's terrible, the next, he's good. Here, he's terrible the next, all these different things going on, like then the putter completely fails him, then he can put again, he can do it, or like it's I like it better when one part of someone's game is faulting them, and it's like, Okay, I know they have they can concentrate on that and try to get better at that. I don't like when it's like all these different things here and there that are all like disjointed, and then I don't really know what the dude's working on or what he's thinking or whatever.
So I don't know. I need to see and if I miss out at twenty then whatever, so be it.
I guess.
Yeah, one of the other guys that this is probably the one guy that I'm close to. Look, he's all the all these names that I'm listening are into afternoon tea times, so I'm kind of waiting to see what this weather does too. I didn't love any of them enough obviously to run and make a bed anyways.
Jake n App, though, is another one. Just look at what.
He's done with approach numbers recently. It's pretty hard to ignore. And I know we're taking driver out of his hands a lot on a lot of these holes. I don't know that I care that much, So it's just what he's done with his irons recently has been so damn good. And he's pretty long and again in a field that's not all that strong, So he's one.
I might might get to the window with.
Table nap plus five in a matchup against Victor HOLANDMGM okay, thank you wiss. That might have been a draw bias move, I think, because I think Victor's in the morning. But yeah, Victor Holin is chalking a matchup really against anybody right now.
I know right now.
Although I maybe he'll surprise and play okay this week, I'm I'm not.
I'm not.
I'm not gonna wait on it anymore because I know the guy's got the talent, but he doesn't have it in the brain right now, and until he figures that out, I can't play him.
M Yeah, I think the only guy that if he wins this tournament that I'll be upset with will be Rico HOEI He's he modeled extremely well for me. And you go down. But then you see like this is almost like this is almost ridiculous. So you go back to January, lost seven strokes putting at the MX, four point six at the Way Management, three and a half in Mexico, six point nine at the Cognizant, and then last week seven point one at the players, Like we joke about some guys that are like team no putt and can't putt, Like that is the worst putting profile in over the stretch of a that I've ever seen.
Like he lost seven strokes three different.
Times in the last couple of months, Like putting this is unbelievable, Like it's crazy. Is he putting wrong handed? Do we know?
Like is he act like should he be putting with the other's hand or.
Something like that. I don't stop using your nine irons.
Yeah, yes, you are allowed to use a putter like it's your You don't have to use the little rubber one that you get at the putt putt place, like you can actually get a good one.
Dude, Oh my god, it's so gross. It's so gross.
I mean, the only thing to be scared of is just like the approach numbers are still pretty good, but you.
Know, yeah, it's just it's pretty pretty well all right, guys. Well, as we said, everything we do absolutely free. We do appreciate the support here of the podcast. So you all you gotta do, all you gotta do is hit the subscribe button.
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That that's it. That's all we ask if you is hit the subscribe button, we do appreciate that. And of course, if you're all on the YouTube side of things, hello, this is how we look. And yeah, you hit the scribe button there as well, and then give us a like and then let us know in the comment section how you are going to be attacking this tournament. You can go to Beason dot com right now. It is Sharp Week. It's a playoff Shark Week. If you're wondering, like you've heard, if you've been listening to us, say at all, is it sharp sharp week?
Shark Week? And so that's a playoff of that.
I got to thinking about that, like if people are just listening to us on the audio side of things and then they're not seeing the graphics, like yeah, they probably have no idea what we're talking about. So yeah, it's it's a playoff Shark Week. There's graphics on the video side of things. You'll you'll get it if you go over there.
The graphics that are that makes more sense, you're you're right, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
So nine nine nine for the first thirty days, probably no better time because you're gonna get our betting guide to the tournament as well as all the picks for the tournament to go along of course with all the stuff that we're putting out for golf and everything as well. So I take advantage of that nine one to nine over at the site right now, Bord Kelly for West.
I am that good luck on all your vals, Barbets
