Jason reacts to the Indiana Pacers dominating the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 4 of their second round series, Tyrese Haliburton driving the Pacers ship, Donovan Mitchell struggling, and more. Then he discusses all four playoff series and what we’ve learned about each team at this point in the playoffs.
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Slash audio. All right, welcome to Hoops tonight.
You're at the volume heavy Monday, everybody of bald You guys had a great weekend.
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Guys. This morning, we're going to be reacting to the Indiana Pacers beat down of the Cleveland Cavaliers last night. I was trying to think of a way to express it. Here's the best way I could express what happened to the Calves last night. They outscored the Pacers seventy to forty nine in the second half and lost by twenty with one of the most destructive performances I've seen in my time as a basketball fan, as the Pacers beat up on the Caves to take a three to one lead in that series. We'll be breaking down that game from the perspective of both teams. Then after that, we're about halfway through the second round at this point, and I want to take some time just to zoom out and look at all four series, and I want to talk about, like where I'm at with all those series at this point, what I think will happen moving forward, and what I've learned about the teams involved with those series. So we'll briefly touch on all four series at the tail end of the show. You guys are the joke before we get started. Subscribed to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels. Who don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at Underscore JNLTC. You guys, don't miss announcements. Don't forget about o podcast fee, where we get your pop castner hoops tonight. It's also super helpful if you leave a rating in a review on that Fron Jackson's doing great work on our social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook. Make sure you guys follow us there. And last, but not least, keep dropping mailbag questions in the YouTube comments so we keep hitting them throughout the remainder of the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball. So we talked after Game one. If you remember about how that game was an awesome introduction for any casual fan who doesn't really know what the Pacers do. It was an opportunity for them to learn about Pacers basketball and what it looks like. And yet somehow last night put even that performance to shame. It was a complete two way dominance in the first half that left absolutely no chance for recovery, as the Pacers outscore the Cavs eighty to thirty nine in the first half, making it so that even though they got blown out in the second half, they still ended up winning by twenty. They dominated literally every single facet of the game. I want to start with their defense. They completely flummixed the Calves offense with relentless ball pressure picking up before any any guard had a chance to like get ahead of steam going up the court, they're running into a pacer that was flattening them out and getting rid of any of that pace that they were trying to bring into the front court. It was affecting everybody, Even Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland were struggling against the pressure. They were picking up after missus. They're picking up after makes it completely shut down any of the transition opportunities that are such an important part of the Caves offense. The Cavs log just two transition points total in that first half during that run, and that again, you're just cutting off the most important part of that Calves offense. Again, we talked about this before early in the season when when we were discussing like the three things that made the Calves a different team than last year. If you guys remember, it was just the overall improvement of Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. Both of them are injured in this series. Darius Garland playing on a toe that's apparently splinted up so tight that it relieves pain, but that he can't actually bend the toe. And then Evan Mobley playing on a bad ankle, and so you get the two guys that are bringing the gigantic improvement year over year both banged up. Secondly the switching and forcing turnovers and thirdly the getting out in transition and so essentially a little bit of talent influx with Garland and Mobley, and then they're turning teams over by switching and playing passing lanes, and they're playing a ton of transition basketball with a lot of pace moving the ball around, and so Pacers don't turn the ball over. They're picking you up and preventing your transition pushes with ball pressure.
And the two you.
Know, talent ads so to speak, for the Cavs this year, are not anywhere near one hundred percent physically, and that has just completely flipped this dynamic to becoming a massive problem. Even Donovan Mitchell struggled, though Donovan Mitchell has killed the Pacers in this series, and he was just three for eleven with zero assists and two turnovers in that first half run for the Pacers. The Pacers dominated the glass, They out rebounded the Cavs twenty two to fifteen in the first half, and then they just put on an offensive clinic a one point fifty seven offensive rating in transition, a one thirty six offensive rating in the half court, which is astronomical. They generated fourteen catch and shoot jump shots and made ten of them. That's two point one four points per shot. They hammered post mismatches right away to start the game. Like one of the first possessions, it's Aaron Nee Smith is posting up Darius Garland and they throw it to him. He draws a double team swing swing, wide open three. They're posting Siakam against Max Strus, They're posting Miles Turner against a bunch of the Cleveland guards, and they Cleveland just didn't have the ability to prevent those mismatches from burning them. One of the things that Indiana does really well is they throw the skip pass, and when you throw the skip pass, that's what burns a typical post front bracket coverage. So we talked about this coverage a lot with like the Miami Heat, because they post, they front the post all the time, but when you try to front the post, there's a passing angle over the top. You try to close that window by having a guy come from the weak side and basically bracket on the other side of the post player. But that's what opens up the skip pass, and the Calves are so paranoid about the skip pass that that guy's staying home, and so there's just a huge passing window to float the ball over the top to these against these post fronts, and the Pacers just made really good post entry passes all night and just continually burned the Calves every single time they switched ball screens.
They lit up the zone.
We talked after game two about how the Pacers kind of started to figure out the zone in the second half. Well, they did really well against it again tonight. They faced it eight times in the first half and scored on six of those possessions. Every which way they beat it by flashing middle, getting the ball to Siakam and shooters relocating off of it. They generated a wide open three frame nemhard that way. They beat it with the skip pass TJ McConnell on the right wing. The low man on the left side was sunk all the way into the paint. Rifles will skip past to Thomas Bryant, who it's a mildly contested three out of the left corner. They beat it by screening the top man ball screen at the top Obi top en rolls out of it, ball in the pocket, left handed layup. Similar type of thing Tyre's Halliburton with Thomas Bryant. Thomas Bryant rolls. When he rolls, the low man has to grab him. Tyree swings the ball. It gets skipped all the way back to the corner because the guy who would be responsible for the corner is now guarding Thomas Bryant on the roll. Another wide open three on the weak side that goes in. They beat it with the flair screen. The three that Tyre's Halliburton hit that was like twenty seven to twenty eight feet off of the right wing. All that was is they flare screen the top man. Max Struce was the other top man, but he was sunk into the paint covering a flasher skip over the top wide open three for Tyre's Halliburton, it goes in. The Pacers basically just ran their same man demand principles that they always run against the zone and it worked extremely well as they basically just played the calves out of that zone. I look at the Indiana Pacers like a machine, and that machine was operating at peak efficiency on both ends of the floor last night, and it just chewed up and spit out the Caves and they had absolutely no chance. When the Pacers are playing like that, you just get to lose. And it's an interesting dynamic to keep in mind for the Conference finals. There's just a higher level that they can get to on both ends of the floor this year, as all of their players have made moderate improvements, even their star Tyree Saliburton, just because he's healthier than he was in years past. So before we get to the Calves, I just want to go into our next segment because I think this will be a good kind of format for us to touch base on the series kind of zooming out as well as what the Calves are going through in terms of the slander that they're catching all over the NBA world today. So again, what I'm gonna do is I'm gonna go through all four series and we'll start with Pacers Calves. But I want to just talk with where I'm at with the series in terms of just what I expect moving forward, and then I want to talk about what we've learned about the teams involved, So Pacers, Calves. Where am I at at this point? It's certainly not over. We know the Calves can beat the Pacers at home, they basically did in Game two, they just tricked it off. And we know that the Calves can beat the Pacers in Indy. They just did it in Game three they blow them out. But they're just operating so far below their ceiling right now that I view it as pretty unlikely. They're completely shook by just the dynamic at play and they're losing confidence and a lot of specific parts of their roster, like Ty Jerome came in and immediately started turning the ball over again.
It's I've.
As big of a drop off from regular season performance to playoff performance in this series that I can remember from a player, Like he was the best guard that I watched off the bench in the NBA this year. I actually thought he was better than Peyton Prichard, and Peyton Richard was amazing in Madison Square Garden in Game three and has been a deeply useful player for the for the Celtics, and Ti Jerome has been like has literally decomposed in this series. It's absolutely wild DeAndre Hunter came in and was missing jumpers so bad wide left that you could literally tell on the broadcast as the ball was coming out of his hands that it was going to be off to the left, Like he was just completely out of sorts with his jump shot. Jared Allen was like brutally bad on defense in this game, like consistently out of position, just like misreading plays, like overplaying a like a random pressure of a high post catch from like Thomas Bryant that ends up giving up a layup, or jumping onto the wrong side of a screen with Dean Wade and giving up a driving lane going to the opposite side of the screen like he was bad in this game. Garland looks like a shell of himself. And then again, this was the first game where they held Donovan Mitchell in check. So like, I even though I think we all know the Cavs can win this series, Like it's really simple. You go home and you beat the Pacers. Go and beat the Pacers at home, you're certainly capable of it. You go back to Indy and you beat them like you did in game three, and then you have Game seven at home where anything can happen. I just don't think the Calves are playing like the Calves right now. If you really zoom out of this series, the only game where they really looked like the Calves was Game three, and in all three of the other games, even Game two when they won, it was like they were kind of hanging on for dear life for the most part and getting the shit kicked out of them in most of the moments of the series. And so I'm guessing the Pacers end up closing this out in six. I bet they go up to Cleveland drop Game five, and then come home and blow out the Calves to win in Game six. But certainly the Calves have a chance, But at this point I would be surprised if the Pacers didn't win.
Now what have I learned?
Honestly, the series hasn't gone that much differently than I expected. I picked the Calves in six. I specifically said to Carter in our series preview that I thought Indiana was a very similar team to Cleveland that would cause them lots of issues in the series, and I expected them to win multiple games. What has happened is the Racers stole a game they should have lost. They were down seven with forty seconds left in Game two and stole that game. And then the Calves are also pretty substantially beat up by injuries, and so those two things have been enough to flip the outcome to where Indiana looks like the better team by a reasonable chunk, similar to what I expected from the Calves before the series. That said, I want to be clear, even though that dynamic has flipped, I've also been super impressed by Indy. The way that their offense and their defense has had this level of success against a very good Calves team has given me a lot more optimism that they absolutely can beat a Boston in the Conference finals. They certainly could beat in New York. So I viewed the Pacers as a substantial finals threat now in a way that I didn't see them last year, because they're in just such a great offensive groove and they're so connected defensively right now. And so yeah, like the Pacers have shown themselves to be the better team at this point. There's just some context in terms of the Calves operating well below their peak in terms of some injuries. But credit to Pacers this is it's equal both ways. Like the Pacers have blown them out in two of these games, and if you really kind of zoom out, the Pacers have had a ton of success that has been related to just how great the Pacers are. That is separate from some of the issues that the Calves are having with injuries and their flow and their confidence and that sort of stuff. So, like again, like I just want to I just want to make sure that we give that credit to the Pacers as well, and that it's.
Not just a Calves thing.
On the Calves front, I see a lot of people burying them today. I've seen a lot of the twenty fifteen Hawks references getting thrown around. And here's all I'll say about that. I was a basketball fan during that age. I remember watching the twenty fifteen Hawks. The twy fifteen Hawks were a mediocre basketball team that just beat up on.
The Eastern Conference.
This Calves team showed an obvious upside and had an obvious like talent level that they had in terms of the level Darius Garland was playing at before he got hurt, the level Donovan Mitchell was playing at all season, the level Even Mobley was playing out all season. Jared Allen kind of encroaching on that top seven, top six centers in the NBA, the level of play they were getting from ty Jrome off the bench, the elite catch and shoot play down the roster. This is a more talented, more dynamic team by a substantial margin than the twenty fifteen Hawks. They run into a very hot, very good Indiana Pacers team, and they're way below their peak efficiency because Darius Garland is like the guy that drives their offense. Darius, Like I talked about this all year. I like Donovan Mitchell, I really do. I think he's a great player, but I've talked about it throughout the year that I view Darius Garland as like their most important offensive player because he's the guy that the dynamic I kept talking about all season was just his ability to get dribble penetration. He gets dribble penetration on everyone, and that just instantly compromises your defense from like the start of the shot clock and you're just chasing your tail the rest of the possession because Darius Garland is so damn fast that he can get to wherever he wants to on the floor. Darius Garland with a bad toe can't. Like there was a possession against TJ. McConnell in the first half where he's just trying to dribble around him on the left wing, and like TJ, looks faster than him, and like TJ is a very good athlete, TJ is like one of the most underrated dribble penetration guys in the league. But Darius is faster than him, and Darius would look slower than him in that matchup on the left wing. And so like Darius Garland is like quote unquote the head of the Snake for their offense in terms of their ability to get the defense and rotation. Donovan Mitchell is a capable passer who has grown as a passer over the course of his career, but he is a scorer. That is what he does, and he has tried to solve problems in this series by scoring the basketball. Darius Garland is the guy who greases the wheels of their offense and gets the ball moving from side to side, gets the defense into rotation, and so having him be operating that far below his capability has substantially changed the way the Calves play offense from the regular season, even if you watched that first half, just the level of involvement from Darius Garland compared to what it would look like when you'd watch the Calves back in like January, December, February, it's just so different, missing that bit of explosion from Darius Garland. So like, here's the thing. Were the Calves as good as the thunder No? Were the Calves as good as the Celtics.
No.
Coming into the playoffs, I ranked them as the fourth most likely team to win the championship. So I wasn't quite as high on the Calves as everyone else was. That said, after that Heat series, their offense was clicking at such a level that I did view them as a legitimate threat, a puncher's chance threat to beat the Boston Celtics, so much so that I was like, at least considering the idea that I would potentially pay them in a Celtic series. But then Darius Garland gets hurt. They're never able to recapture that offensive verb that they had before the Darius Garland injury, and now it just looks like they're dead in the water. And so again I think it's a little bit of both. Are they a little bit overrated from what they looked like as a sixty four win regular season team. Yes, are they the twenty fifteen Hawks? No, they're They're certainly better than that. That's kind of how I felt about the Calves after tonight and the last night, and honestly, like, as far as the future holds for the Calves, like Darius Garland has had perpetual injury issues throughout his career, and it's just something to keep in mind that he finally has this super healthy season where he looks like an All NBA caliber guard and then he just breaks down at the tail end of the season. It's just super unfortunate.
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All Right, Boston, New York? Where am I at? With the series? Right? Now, the Knicks.
Only needed to win one game at Madison Square Garden to put themselves in great spot to win the series. So even though they lost Game three, it's certainly not over for them. They have a very good chance to win Game four tonight. So the way I would express their chances is like this. I think tonight they have about a coin flip chance to beat Boston. If Boston goes in and doesn't shoot the ball as well, it'll be another rockfight, and in a rock fight, if they can keep things close enough, Jalen Brunson has the ability to close things late, So call it about a coin flip chance. If they win that game, they're up three to one, and the next three games you're in Boston for Game five, back to MSG for Game six, and then in Boston for Game seven. I think they have about a coin flip chance to win one of those next three games, because even an MSG game in game six, if it's three to two, that's an elimination game. You're going to get a better effort from Boston. Then you'll even get tonight necessarily, right, So I viewed about a fifty percent chance to win a win tonight and about a fifty percent chance to win one of the following three games if they win tonight. So a basic, you know, kind of a transitive way to look at it is fifty percent, fifty percent is twenty five percent. So I look at it like seventy five twenty five in favor of Boston to win the series at this point, moving forward, now with each team, what have we learned With the Celtics. I said coming into the postseason that I viewed them as the best team available among all the sixteen teams because of their combination of two way talent. They just have the best assortment of players that can successfully play on both ends of the floor in the playoffs, combined with the veteran experience necessary to be comfortable and to make adjustments and to do all the things that you to handle all the things that you encounter typically in the postseason. I think that through this series that ceiling has been expressed. I should say through this postseason to this point, they've shown their ceiling. Game three against New York was a perfect example of it. I still believe in that ceiling. However, Boston has demonstrated that they're just a little bit more rickety, a little bit more prone to showing their floor than we originally thought, to the point where they dropped a very very important Game two at home showing that floor. So like, while I feel kind of still the same way about the Boston Celtics and what they can reach in terms of their top end, I kind of view their range of potential outcomes as lower. So like I'm at this point, like I wouldn't be surprised that they won the title, but I also wouldn't be surprised that they lost in this round. And that just kind of shows the wide range of outcomes. And the main thing that is really manifested in terms of the basketball side of it is they don't have an audible when their drive and kick generate quality three's offense doesn't work. They don't have offensive versatility in terms of finding a legit like fifty plus percent guy who can get down ten feet inside of the basket and hit a hook shot or a short turnaround or anything at at a level that is impervious to variants.
They are inherently.
Vulnerable to variants, and that is the part that kind of brings that low floor into the equation. And so that just kind of makes them vulnerable as a defending champion. Here on the Knicks fronts basically basically been the quality of their defense that has impressed me. They did not defend very well in Game three, but they've had extended stretches between the Piston series and this series where they've shown some really high level defense. Jalen Brunson in particular, I think is having one of his better defensive postseasons. Kats still struggling, but overall their defense has been sturdier than I expected it to be in this series, and so I think we deserve the Knicks deserved to get some credit on that end of the floor. Denver OKC, I feel like both of the Western Conference series, I've had pretty good feel for this series. I've been pretty much on top of I said before the series that I picked OKCE in seven. I said that Denver would legitimately threaten them with their size. I thought it was a favorable matchup and that they would have a legitimate chance to win. And they did have their legitimate chance to win. It was yesterday. It was in the fourth quarter when they were up eight on a Peyton Watson hook shot with about eleven and a half minutes left that put them in commanding position to take a three to one lead in the series, and their best player could make a shot, and that really was the series.
To me.
If Nikola Jokic played like the guy that he was capable of being the best player in the world as a shot maker on the offensive side of the ball, I think Denver's up three to one and wins this series. He wasn't credit Okac's defense too. We went over it last night. It's the specific dynamic of having a sizable center in Isaiah Hartenstein that can be on the ball while also having a center that can protect the rim behind. Essentially, we've seen teams put their four man on Jokich and put a rim protector behind him, but that fore man is not big enough to handle Jokic. Only Minnesota and Oklahoma City have shown the ability to put two fives on the floor, and the idea of having a legitimate five on Jokic while also having a Rudy Gobert or chet holmgrin behind him forces him to make over the top shots. In the Minnesota series, Jokis was actually able to make over the top shots and so the games were more competitive. They had better chances to win. But in this series, Yokich has had a nightmare time making anything outside of like three feet in front of the rim, and so as a result of that, they just haven't been able to generate enough offense to keep this series within reach for them. So it looks like at this point if I had to guess what will happen. If I had a guess right now, I actually think okay C's gonna win this thing in six. The main reason why is I think that we're gonna see I think that we're gonna see Denver get their butt kicked in game five. I think Okaye's gonna get them pretty good. And then it's I feel like that Game six at home. A big part of it is belief. You need your guys to actually feel like they have a real chance to go back on the road and win a game seven, and I think that they'd have a pretty small chance to win Game seven. So I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if we actually saw Denver lose this series in six, drop Game five up in Oklahoma City and end up losing back at home. I wanted to pull these these shot making numbers because I think these are fascinating. This is from the last three games. Jokich is four for fifteen on above the break threes, that's twenty six point seven percent. He's zero for two on corner threes, mid range jump shots. This is an area where he's usually been really efficient. He's just five for fifteen from the field. That's just thirty three percent in the paint, non restricted area. So these are like the floaters and the touch shots. These are shots that Jokic has routinely in his career hit sixty five sixty five, seventy percent of He's just seven for seventeen in the last three games. That's forty one point two percent. And then in the restricted area, a place where he's typically north of seventy percent, He's just five for nine in the last three games, which is just fifty five point six percent. So Jokicic has just really really struggled with his shot making, and I just don't think he's in like, I think he's just kind of missed an opportunity to steal this series. So on the Denver front, I do think their championship pedigree has shown their experience, their willingness to execute down the stretch, of games. Them turning what has been basically a dominant Oklahoma City performance for four games into two wins is actually super impressive, and it led Jackson and I when we were talking last night, to kind of acknowledge that Denver's probably the best team since Kevin Durant left the Warriors, either them or Boston. But I have a lot of respect for Denver and what I've seen to this point, but I think they lost their chance losing.
That game last night.
On the Oklahoma City front, I feel like I've been spot on with these guys. I feel like they have this clear championship ceiling, but they have obvious vulnerabilities in terms of their week side catch and shoot players going very cold this time. In this case Lou Dordan particular, Ja Dubbs struggling to knock down shots. Chet Holm, We're struggling to knockdown shots. There was actually the bench guys who came in and saved them yesterday. But also just the overall like kind of like lack of perimeter size has been on display in a few cases these and how when the offense bogs down, it basically just turns into Shay and j dubb just taking one on one, you know, taking turns at the top of the key, attacking guys one on one, and how their offense can kind of bog down in that way. And so they kind of are in similar way to what we were talking about with Boston, a very high ceiling, low floor type of team, and so what that always manifested like from me with Oklahoma City coming into the postseason, I said they were the second most likely team to win the championship. When I look at them moving forward, I look at them as a team that I wouldn't be surprised if they hoisted the trophy. I also wouldn't be surprised if they ended up losing in this round or next round. They are a team that is very beatable in my opinion, while also obviously having that championship ceiling, and I think that that's been revealed in this series. And then lastly, Minnesota Golden State. I also feel like I've been pretty on top of this one. I feel like if Steph was healthy, I think the Years would have won this series. And even without him, I think we've seen some of Golden State's advantages show up in big ways in terms of just how good their defense is and how their ball in player movement can confuse Minnesota's defense at times. Now, what I think will happen at this point, Golden State has their chance. They have a you know, a chance to win tonight and tie the series. They have the chance to potentially get step back in Game six, but I would view it as a substantially lower chance than like the Nick Celtic situation that we talked about, Like, I view it as less than fifty percent that Golden State wins tonight, and if they were to win that game, a less than fifty percent chance of being able to win two more games before the end of the series. And so I would be shocked at this point if Minnesota didn't win. I'd go as far as to say, if Minnesota won tonight, I wouldn't even try to bring Steph back at any point in the series. So I do think Minnesota will.
End up winning. Now, what have we learned about the two teams? Golden State?
I think they've shown that they have a legitimate championship level defense, and with that, in combination with how good Steph has shown himself to be in this postseason run the fit with Jimmy, I think They've proven that they're worth investing in, and so I think that we'll see a more aggressive trade approach over the course of the summer with Golden State to try to bring in more talent, identifying that there's a legitimate chance to win a championship here. I think that that is a big like, you know, if you're looking for a silver lining after what would be a super depressing finish to the season, like Golden State trades for Jimmy Butler, kick everybody's butt down the stretch of the regular season, beat the Houston Rockets, steal game one against Minnesota.
You're in great shape.
Steph Hursus Hammy obviously a huge bummer, But I think they've proven that they have a legitimate championship ceiling that is worth investing in, and so that is a silver lining as you head into next season and then Minnesota. I just think they're vulnerable to certain types of matchups. I think it'll be interesting to see Oklahoma City doesn't have the ball in player movement that Golden State does, so it'll be a little bit easier for their defense to handle. And I do think that they'll have extended stretches of success against Oklahoma City's defense or excuse me, against Oklahoma City's offense with their defense, but when they have the ball, I think Oklahoma City is an even better defense. And I think Golden State is a better defense for this type of matchup in terms of the way they could confuse Minnesota. But I think Oklahoma City is a more talented defense in terms of just the level of athleticism in rim protection they had, and so I think they will equally flummix Minnesota in different ways, less so with confusing them, more so with just the athletic traits that they put on the floor. And I think Minnesota is going to really struggle to score in that matchup. And so with Minnesota, it's it's very matchup dependent. If they get Denver, Denver beats Okay, see, I absolutely think they could win that series, they have a great chance to then go to the finals. And so I think Minnesota is a very good team that is very matchup dependent in terms of what they can produce on a series by series basis. All right, guys, that's all I have for this morning. Is always a sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting me and supporting the show. Colin ended up rescheduling from last night, so we'll still have a calling episode and we'll just be out later tonight. We're recording it, i think after the Draft lottery, and then I'm still planning on going live on YouTube after the final buzzer of Warriors Wolves as well as playback after that, so we will see you guys later tonight.
What's up guys.
As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting OOPS tonight. It would actually be really helpful for us if you guys would take a second and leave a rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take a minute to do that, I really appreciate it.
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