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For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see DKG dot co. Slash audio. All right, welcome hoops to night. You're at the volume heavy Monday, everybody. Hope all of you guys are having a great start to your week. Today we are doing our Western Conference Finals review between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves. I went back and forth on this series a half dozen times since last night, but I did find an answer I will be revealing at the tail end of the show. Again, we're going to go through our usual routine. We'll go through the season series. We'll talk about some of the metrics, we'll talk about the gambling odds, and then we'll focus on Minnesota on offense, then Oklahoma City on offense, talk a little bit about their bench, and then we'll get to our prediction. You guys owe the joke before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore JSNLTS. You guys don't misshow announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed where we get your podcast on our Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful if you leave a rating in a review on that front. Jackson's doing great work on our social media feeds Twitter, Instagram, Facebook. Make sure you guys follow us there. In the last but not least, keepdropping mail back question so we can get to them throughout the remainder of the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball. So to two seasons a little weird. There was a game towards the end of the year where the end of the bench guys with like Nikhil, Alexander Walker and nas Reed managed to come back from down like fourteen with three minutes left to send a game to overtime that ultimately Minnesota won. And there was some interesting stuff in that overtime period where the Minnesota was able to get some big offensive rebounds and have some successful stretches of defense versus Oklahoma City. If you guys remember, Anthony Edwards had a huge block on Shake Gills as Alexander right at the rim got up in his face and was flexing on him. But that was a game that Oklahoma City had taken control of until the final minutes, and it was like a Rob Dillingham group with like Terrence Shannon that actually brought them back into it. So to two, but kind of a weird one. Julius Randall only played in one of the games, Dante DiVincenzo only played in one of the games. Rudy Gobaer only played in one of the games. Chet Holmgren only played in two of the games. Alex Russo only played in two of the games. So, as is always the case, I'm more looking into those games for just opportunities to see what it looks like when certain guys guard each other, certain stretches of the games where you see something that might be translatable. Not too much to take away. The metrics are just about as close as it gets. Minnesota logged at one fourteen point seven offensive rating, Oklahoma City logged day one to fourteen point six offensive rating. Rebounding was a big advantage towards Minnesota. They grabbed fifty three point two percent of available rebounds, including thirty one point five percent of their own misses. So definitely an on the glass advantage from Minnesota there for odds. Again, all of our odds are provided by a partner, DraftKings. Oklahoma City is a minus three thirty favorite. This I flat out don't understand, but I'm also not surprised. Obviously. Oklahoma City puts up crazy metrics that influence the algorithm that these sportsbook uses. Sportsbooks use. So like Denver's three wins in the Conference semis where by twenty three points combined. Why because they're a veteran team, They're not gonna pound you into the dirt, right, Oklahoma City had a forty three point win and a thirty two point win in the series because there are a bunch of dudes in their early twenties that are never gonna stop playing until the until the buzzer sounds and the veterans are gonna let go of the rope, so to speak. So that's going to influence a lot of the way that these odds will come out. I think this is a pretty interesting betting opportunity on the Minnesota side of things. In terms of value, I think Oklahoma City should be a favorite, substantial favorite, like somewhere in that like minus one point fifty to minus two hundred range. But you can get Minnesota right now to win the series at plus two sixty five. I think that's a good price for a team that absolutely has a good chance to win this series, even though we can all agree Oklahoma City should favor. So let's start with Minnesota. On offense matchups, we'll see Lou Dort start on Anthony Edwards. Oklahoma City did a great job on it in the regular season. They held him to twenty two points per game on thirty six percent from the field in thirty two two percent from three. They forced him into three point five turnovers per game, which was above a season average. It is a team job, though Cason Wallace and Alex Cruso will both see time in this matchup. Alex in particular defended Ant really well in a couple of games he played in. The Thunder did a ton of double teaming and like gapping in driving lanes against Ant, and they were able to pretty consistently rotate out of it without giving up more than like a mildly contested catch and shoot three. Lou Dort super physical on Ant. He's got that unique combination of like the strength to hold up against Ant's power, but also the quickness to beat him to spots. He also did a good amount of denying, especially in their first game that they played this year, where he was just like getting physical with them off ball, just kind of two hands on his jersey face guarding, and that played Ant into some passive stretches. Interesting stat Ant took four fewer shots per game in this matchup than he did in his regular With his regular season average he averaged around twenty shots per game. He ended up taking about six team shots per game, specifically against Oklahoma City, and It's got a really tough job in this series. On the one hand, Minnesota's clear advantage on offense is at the power forward spot. Nasred scored nineteen or more points in all four games against Oklahoma City this year. I think he had a twenty seven point game as well. Julius Randall only played once and struggled, but he also will have substantial size advantages, and he's just playing at a much higher level than he was when he played against Oklahoma City way back, and I think it was like December in the game that he actually played in. So I think Ant's gonna need to, on one hand, avoid forcing the issue, play in the flow, keep it moving, make sure his forwards get their touches. But I also think this series will inevitably degrade into ugly half court shot making contests between him and Shay, and so for stretches, he'll need to be aggressive, and so he'll need to find ways to maintain his rhythm and apply a certain amount of aggression no matter what. But he also has to read the room and be like, this is a team that's got a million dudes who can defend guards and not a lot of guys who can defend forwards. So that's going to be his job to make sure as the point guard, or as the on ball guard getting a lot of opportunities for his bigs. And one of the things we've talked about a lot over the course of this playoff run is I kind of like Ant playing Moras and off the catch, old school two guard anyway, and so I want to see the aggressive but I think it's a good opportunity for him to be aggressive off of those post touches. For guys like Nas and for Julius, this is the next challenge and Ant's journey is a basketball player. I thought Golden State was probably the second best defense Ants ever faced, just because last year's MAVs team had a combination of a really strong on ball defender and Derek Jones Junior, but also rim protection with in terms of like real vertical size, which as good as Draymond Green is and he's arguably the best defender of this era, I wouldn't necessarily count him as like a vertical, really staunch rim protector, if that makes sense. And past that test and his last three wins against Golden State, he averaged twenty nine points, five rebounds, and seven assists on fifty percent from the field and forty seven percent from three. But this Oklahoma City defense is gonna present kind of the best of both of those teams. It's gonna be a lot of the depth of speed and on ball defense that Golden State presents, and I'd argue just better versions of those guys, but also the rim protection that Dallas had. The big difference is just the overall defensive playmaking and IQ of guys like Draymond and Jimmy Butler, Like that's gonna be less of a factor here, But I think just in terms of just pure on paper defensive talent. Okay, see, he's got a lot of stuff to match up with him. So I'm just really curious to see how Ant particularly handles the challenge. And as far as Dort goes in his job, you literally couldn't conceptualize a better physical build for a player to contend with Ant, strong enough to hold his ground, quick enough to beat him to spots. JDub on Julius Randall again. Julius did not play in three of the four matchups this year, but in the one matchup against Whoma City, he did not play well. Is eleven points, four turnovers. Jada bothered him with strength by beating him to spots and had the length to kind of poke at the ball every time Julius Randall exposed it. I trimmed a clip and posted it on Twitter this morning of just an example of Julius trying to go through j dub In not having any success because of his ability to attack the basketball. But again, Julius is playing at a much higher level now than he was back when that game took place. Julius is going to have substantially better physical advantages than ant throughout this series, and so they're gonna need him to be great with both Julius and Nas. One of the things I want to keep an eye on in this series. I was actually talking with Jackson before we started recording. This was one of the big swing factors for me. I can't get out of my head the problem that Denver had just simply getting the ball to Nicola jokicch in Game seven when Alex Caruso started denying and fronting. And this is going to be a series where I think Minnesota's gonna need to get the ball to Nos and they're gonna need to get the ball to Julius, and I think we could see a lot of that similar type of j dub and Alex Caruso post fronting, three quarter fronting, full on denial, just doing everything they can to prevent those post catches and to force turnovers when Minnesota tries to force the ball to those post mismatches. So let's keep an eye on that in this series. Just the specific challenge of Minnesota trying to get the ball to Julius and Nas in scoring position. I think we'll see Shay guard Mike Conley. Mike Conley's pretty low usage for the Wolves at this point. He runs about five ball screens per game in the playoffs, including passes, but he's getting zero point seven to seven points per possession. He's just two for ten on pull up jump shots in the postseason and just three for twelve on floaters, So not too much to worry about on ball in terms of Mike Conley, but he has been doing a good amount of damage off ball as like a transition scorer and as a spot up player. He's shooting forty one percent on catch and shoot threes so far in the playoffs. So Shay's just gonna have to do a good job of tracking it when he's in his help and recover situations. Mike's also been pretty successful as an offensive rebounder in this postseason. He's getting two rebounds two offensive rebounds per thirty six minutes. So he'll just have to be a little attentive to him crashing out of the corners. I think we'll see Chet holmgern on Jada McDaniels operating as a roamer again. He just has to be careful here. Jaden has been a very good offensive player in these playoffs. He's been active as a cutter, active as an offensive rebounder. He's shooting thirty five percent on threes. He's had some explosive scoring games. He had a thirty point game and a twenty five point game just in these playoffs, albeit in the Lakers matchup where he had a substantial athletic advantage. The job for Chet will be to be that effective kind of roam or just gotta be attentive to Jayden. If you let him get free runways to the basket over and over again, he can do real damage there. Isaiah Hartenstein on Rudy Gobert. Gobert played in just one game against Oklahoma City this year. He was a plus three and thirty one minutes. He had a couple of blocks, kind of the classic Gobert performance and that he makes some so much easier to guard on offense, but then he also causes substantial problems for Oklahoma City's offense with his rim protection. Isaia Hartenstein will be playing up off of him in ball screens, up high in pick and roll. That was something we talked about earlier. They're going to be up at the level against ant but he doesn't really have to worry about Gobert on the back line as a scoring threat. He does have offensive rebounding ability there, but in the regular season in their one game, he did just get two offensive rebounds, So Oklahoma City did do a good job in that one matchup of keeping him off the glass. We'll talk about this a little bit more later, but I think there's a potential for Hartenstein and Gobert to kind of have their roles minimized over the course of this series as both teams lean more into Chet and nas Reed at center. But we'll talk about that in a few minutes. Obviously, with Minnesota, you're dealing with a ton of depth, right and they're closing five. Often doesn't involve their starting lineup. Nas Reid and Dante Devincenzo are both over twenty five minutes per game in the postseason. Nikhil Alexander Walker is at nineteen minutes per game. Dante and Nikiel have been twice as frequently in the excuse me, Dante and nos Red have been twice as frequently in the closing lineup as Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert. So again, closing games are probably going to see Ant and Dante alongside Jayden with Julius and nos when we get down to win in time nas Red. As we mentioned before, nas has been their most effective scorer in this matchup in the regular season. He can beat nail help with above the break shooting. This was a big thing with Ant and screening actions. Just like little pick and pops or against switches when they are just digging down off the nail. He can get a clean look from like twenty six to twenty seven feet off of the wing. This is gonna be a big swing. Like if Naz can keep burning Okayse's help with three or threes over the top of contests, that's going to be a big factor in this series. And then he just has a lot of mismatch opportunities on the floor against Oklahoma City smaller players. He also, as we mentioned earlier, if they go away from Hart and Stein and Gobert over the course of the series, he'll have a ton of defensive responsibility as the sol center on the floor for extended stretches. So for Minnesota, I think Nazried is the biggest X factor in this series. It's all gonna be about on the OKAC front. Getting contests. In this postseason, nas is eighteen for thirty on unguarded catch and shoots. That's sixty percent, But he's two for ten when he's guarded, and if you chase him off the line in a spot up situation, he's shooting just two for seven on who's when he's driving close out. So being attentive to him off ball, chasing him off the line, getting good contests, and then attacking him on defense in space to see if he can contend. Like again, Nazrid, We've seen him be very effective guarding bigger players, but he can struggle at times guarding smaller players. Then with Dante Nikiel, these guys will be a critical to Minnesota success on many levels in this series. We'll talk about it in a minute, but they'll both spend time on shake kill just Alexander. I actually think we'll see more of Nikiel on Shay and we'll probably see more of Dante on Jadub, matching strength for strength, So they'll be playing a role in the defensive end. But these guys are gonna get a lot of catch and shoot opportunity this year. Nikkiel in particular, has gotten a ton of catch and shoot opportunities against OKC in the regular season. He hit ten threes in the four games, and in one particular game, Caint a crazy heater that put Minnesota into a commanding lead at one point. Overall keys for Oklahoma City when Minnesota's on offense, pressure and denials, especially if Nas and Julius and their post catches force ant to pass the ball effectively, those post entries could be the entryway to them getting out in transition against this team. So that's going to be the key for them. And then with Minnesota, find your advantages, make fundamental post entries, so pass fakes, and then Julius and Nas have to do a good job of ceiling. That was the big mistake Yokich was making in yesterday's game, as he wasn't ceiling on that passing angle. You got to create a clear passing window and then from there play out of those advantages. I would love to see Ant attacking off the catch early and often in this series, and then as a group, and this goes for both teams. He just got to knock down your catch and shoot threes. That's going to be a big swing in this series, all right, moving forward to Oklahoma City. On offense, the matchups we'll see Jada McDaniels start on Shae. Shaye absolutely fried Minnesota this year. There's no way around it. He had thirty seven or more and three of the four matchups really had the three point shot going. He was able to get in the lane and draw fouls an absurd amount of times attempted forty eight free throws in this season series. In theory, Jayden should be able to do better than he did. He's got the length and quickness to guard a guy like es Sga. Part of it was pressure as a team, Shae just was they were picking him up further out, Very different than the Denver matchup where they're kind of like more playing off of him and containing and trying to bait him into taking bad over the top jump shots. Minnesota was pressuring him and he was just going right around the first guy and kind of getting a head of steam into the lane where he was just drawing foul after foul after foul. I would like to see, I know this kind of goes against everything that Minnesota does, but I would like to see at least at some point an attempt from Jaden to play more of a contain and contest style of defense against meaning like give him more space play in that kind of like range where he can contain the drive but get a late contest on a pull up jump shot prevent him from getting that easy dribble penetration that led to all the fouls that he was drawing in this matchup. But I'm a little worried that they're just gonna lean into the pressure just because that's who they are as a basketball team. We will see, but once again, it'll be a team job. I think the Keel will get a lot of reps in this matchup. And then obviously off ball gapping, shrinking the floor, closing off those driving lanes. Shay did shoot the ball very well from three in this matchup. He made ten threes in the four games on over fifty percent from the from the three point line. Ain't guarding Jdubb. I'm a little worried about this matchup just because Ant's gonna have such a big offensive workload, and his tendency over the years has been to die on screens from time to time when he gets tired, So I think it'll be a jump shooting series for JDub. The Wolves will have bodies behind him. He's not gonna get all the way to paint that often, or all the way into the to the rim that often, especially when Rudy's back there. But Jadub's gonna have a lot of opportunities if Ant gets caught on screens to take and make shots in the mid range. Interestingly enough, as bad as Jadeb's been from three, he's been just twenty five percent from three in this postseason. He's twenty one for thirty nine on two point jump shots. That's one point zero eight points per shot. So an analytically sound mid range game from JDub so far in this postseason. So like I could see him getting a lot of looks against drop coverage in the middle of the floor. If Ant struggles to navigate screens, Let's keep an eye on that. Mike Conley on lou Dort getting contests on Dort after helping in the lane. That's gonna be the job for Conley lou Dort this postseason. Thirty five percent on unguarded threes, twenty four percent unguarded catch and shoot threes. So gotta get good close outs and then keeping him off the offensive glass. We saw this a lot in Game seven, but lou Dort does a lot of crashing, especially because it's similar toly similarly to what we talked about with Aaron Nee Smith in the Pacers Knicks matchup. He's picking up full court anyway, so it just kind of gives him a free license to crash towards the front of the rim because he's gonna end up picking up the ball there anyway. So with Mike Conley, it's just gonna be about putting his body in front of him, you know, and just taking away those easy opportunities that he can get and then getting a good close out. I actually like the matchup for Conley strictly in terms of contesting, because I think that fits his speed well. But I'm a little worried about him getting beat up on the offensive glass. Julius Randall on Chet home grin. I think we'll see nas Reed a little bit here as well, especially like we talked about earlier, if the team's downsize, it's a good matchup for both of those guys. Chet has been below a point per shot on catch and shoot jumpers in the entire playoffs. He shot just six for twenty seven from three against Denver, So I think both guys will be able to help in the lane. They'll just have to make sure they throw good closeouts, be effective as helpers in the lane. If you're gonna be off ball, he better be helping. And then on Chet's attacks, they just need to attack his base with their strength. They both have a big strength advantage there on Chet's front. On this side, like he's gonna keep getting good luck, the good looks that he got in the Denver series that he got in the Memphis series. So Check can swing this series in a big way if he just hits the shots that he's been missing so far in this postseason and then go go Bar and Hartenstein more help and recover, kind of like we saw with Jokic over the course of the tail end of the Denver O KC series, if you swipe at Hartenstein on his floater, like if you swipe down low, or if you get a good contest off a high like, you'll see Hartenstein miss that floater. It actually was super interesting in that series because so many teams over the course of the regular season would basically just concede, like, oh, if they saw Hartenstein catch, they just let him take his floater, and it would just go in over and over and over again. And Jokis was the first guy I've seen like really aggressively attack Hartenstein before he'd shoot the floater, and he forced him into a lot of misses on that shot. So Rudy Gobert, I think could take a note from that, especially with his longer arms and to get good contests on Hartenstein in the floaters. But again, I'm wondering how much we'll see both of these guys in this series. Dagnall had to lean into Hartenstein a lot in the in the Denver series just because of Jokic and the need they had to match up with his size and strength. I could see him going smaller here. I could see Gobart becoming a nightmare for Minnesota spacing against Oklahoma City's defense. So I wouldn't be surprised if we looked back on this series in both Gobert and Hartenstein played less than twenty minutes per game. I think that's something to keep an eye on as we go into this round. And then Oklahoma City's bench kase On Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, and Alex Cruso have been their more reliable catch and shoot guys even than their starters, like Cruso forty two percent from three in the playoffs. Kase On Wallace and Aaron Wiggins each had three games in the Denver series where they hit multiple threes. So those are guys who are going to have to keep an eye on when they're helping in the lane, on like Jadub and Shay when they're driving. My prediction, again, I went back and forth on this one a bunch of times. My initial, kind of like gut instinct, was the lead toward Ministers because of their experience and because I just thought Naseried and Julius Randall were better offensive players than some of these guys that Oklahoma City had. But I could very easily say the exact same thing about the Denver matchup. Jamal Murray Aaron Gordon. Those guys are more reliable offensive players in theory, and they couldn't score against Oklahoma City. And what ultimately made up my mind was a lot of what I saw in Game seven yesterday, which is just that Oklahoma City's defense, in my opinion, even though Minnesota's defense is great, I think Oklahoma City's defense is another tier above Minnesota, not necessarily on paper in terms of talent, but just the sheer togree, the sheer degree to which they fight on every single possession, for every single inch, for simple things like post entries, just getting the ball ap half court, like oh Dort's picking up Aaron Gordon full court just on a random possession, and forcing yet another turnover that leads to a runout the other way, these are the two top teams in the league at forcing opponent turnovers in the postseason. Minnesota is averaging fifteen point nine opponent turnovers. Okase He's averaging eighteen point three. There's a large gap even between the two of them as the top two turnover forcing teams in the NBA. I view, the gap between these two defenses as more substantial than the gap and offensive skill and experience that I think Minnesota has an advantage in. So I'm picking Oklahoma City to win this series in six games. I think Ant ends up having a rough series. I think that even though Julius and Nas have their advantages, I think Oklahoma City does a good job of disrupting those feeds and that in aggregate they're forcing turnovers that actually ends up working out in their favor. And I just think overall Oklahoma City will have more extended and dramatic stretches of destructive defense that does too much damage for Minnesota to recover from. But to be clear, I absolutely think Minnesota can win the series. I'd argue they're the better betting option in terms of the odds. There's a clear path for them. Ant is absolutely capable about playing Shay Gil's alley Xander as a shot maker and as a playmaker in the series. If he does that, that's a big swing. If Nas and Julius do get the ball effectively in their spots on the floor, and they do score effectively and draw two to the ball and get the ball out effectively without turning the ball over too much, that could make Minnesota very comfortable in offense role player shooting. If guys like Dante and Nas and Jayden, all these dudes just shoot better than Oklahoma City's role players that could play a role. And then again, even though I think Minnesota's defense is not as good as Oklahoma City's, it's sure as hell a lot better than Denver's defense or Memphis's defense, and so they could potentially cause a lot of damage to Oklahoma City's offense. Like I wouldn't be surprised if Game one, for instance, ended up being a series that ended up being a game that went Minnesota's way, just because Minnesota is a little bit more comfortable going against an elite defense because they just did so, whereas Oklahoma City will be baptism by fire going into a tougher defense. That's it. I don't think Home Court's going to manage a matter much in this series at all. Both of these teams are super athletic. Both of these teams are going to be comfortable playing on the road with their defense. I think even if Minnesota won Game one, it wouldn't have the same kind of feel as if per Se the Pacers stole Game one in New York, where I think home court for Indiana is such a huge advantage, right, so keep an eye on that. I think Minnesota's path is the steel Game one. I think they have a good chance to steal Game one because of the shock and awe value of their defense. But over the course of the series, I think Oklahoma City will settle in and I think they have the better defense, and I think it's enough of an advantage to make up for the experience and offense advantages that Minnesota has. All Right, guys, that's all I have for today. As always, a sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show. As you guys know, there's no game tonight, so everyone enjoy the night. Will be back. No show tomorrow morning, obviously, but we'll be back tomorrow night. After the final buzzer of Western Conference Finals Game one. We'll be live on YouTube, you know, for a half hour or so, and then after the game we'll be heading over to playback dot tv slashops tonight for our after show where we get informal take callers, talk shit, have fun, watch film, all that kind of stuff. Got a big, big night plan for you guys, tomorrow. We will see you guys then. What's up guys. As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting OOPS tonight. They would actually be really helpful for us if you guys would take a second and leave a rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take a minute to do that, I really appreciate it. The volume. It's a great time of year to get out and see some of these live events. We've got concerts and comedy shows all over the country. I got out to the Sphere for a three night set to see Dead in Company last month. The NBA Playoffs are in full swing, lots of good games to see there. The Major League Baseball season is underway, and this is why I want to give a shout out to the sponsor of today's video, seat Geek. With over twenty eight million downloads, seat Geek is the number one rated ticketing app. There are more than seventy thousand events listed on including concerts, sports, festivals and more. And like I said earlier, you can get tickets to the NBA Playoffs now. I'm super excited to see several of these series in the first round. Look at all these tickets that you can find, and they'll even tell you whether or not that ticket is a particularly good deal. Here's an amazing deal for Game three. Here's another great deal, another amazing deal. You can find all these options on seat geek. Seek geek has your back. 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For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see DKG dot co. Slash audio. All right, welcome hoops to night. You're at the volume heavy Monday, everybody. Hope all of you guys are having a great start to your week. Today we are doing our Western Conference Finals review between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves. I went back and forth on this series a half dozen times since last night, but I did find an answer I will be revealing at the tail end of the show. Again, we're going to go through our usual routine. We'll go through the season series. We'll talk about some of the metrics, we'll talk about the gambling odds, and then we'll focus on Minnesota on offense, then Oklahoma City on offense, talk a little bit about their bench, and then we'll get to our prediction. You guys owe the joke before we get started. Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore JSNLTS. You guys don't misshow announcements. Don't forget about our podcast feed where we get your podcast on our Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful if you leave a rating in a review on that front. Jackson's doing great work on our social media feeds Twitter, Instagram, Facebook. Make sure you guys follow us there. In the last but not least, keepdropping mail back question so we can get to them throughout the remainder of the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball. So to two seasons a little weird. There was a game towards the end of the year where the end of the bench guys with like Nikhil, Alexander Walker and nas Reed managed to come back from down like fourteen with three minutes left to send a game to overtime that ultimately Minnesota won. And there was some interesting stuff in that overtime period where the Minnesota was able to get some big offensive rebounds and have some successful stretches of defense versus Oklahoma City. If you guys remember, Anthony Edwards had a huge block on Shake Gills as Alexander right at the rim got up in his face and was flexing on him. But that was a game that Oklahoma City had taken control of until the final minutes, and it was like a Rob Dillingham group with like Terrence Shannon that actually brought them back into it. So to two, but kind of a weird one. Julius Randall only played in one of the games, Dante DiVincenzo only played in one of the games. Rudy Gobaer only played in one of the games. Chet Holmgren only played in two of the games. Alex Russo only played in two of the games. So, as is always the case, I'm more looking into those games for just opportunities to see what it looks like when certain guys guard each other, certain stretches of the games where you see something that might be translatable. Not too much to take away. The metrics are just about as close as it gets. Minnesota logged at one fourteen point seven offensive rating, Oklahoma City logged day one to fourteen point six offensive rating. Rebounding was a big advantage towards Minnesota. They grabbed fifty three point two percent of available rebounds, including thirty one point five percent of their own misses. So definitely an on the glass advantage from Minnesota there for odds. Again, all of our odds are provided by a partner, DraftKings. Oklahoma City is a minus three thirty favorite. This I flat out don't understand, but I'm also not surprised. Obviously. Oklahoma City puts up crazy metrics that influence the algorithm that these sportsbook uses. Sportsbooks use. So like Denver's three wins in the Conference semis where by twenty three points combined. Why because they're a veteran team, They're not gonna pound you into the dirt, right, Oklahoma City had a forty three point win and a thirty two point win in the series because there are a bunch of dudes in their early twenties that are never gonna stop playing until the until the buzzer sounds and the veterans are gonna let go of the rope, so to speak. So that's going to influence a lot of the way that these odds will come out. I think this is a pretty interesting betting opportunity on the Minnesota side of things. In terms of value, I think Oklahoma City should be a favorite, substantial favorite, like somewhere in that like minus one point fifty to minus two hundred range. But you can get Minnesota right now to win the series at plus two sixty five. I think that's a good price for a team that absolutely has a good chance to win this series, even though we can all agree Oklahoma City should favor. So let's start with Minnesota. On offense matchups, we'll see Lou Dort start on Anthony Edwards. Oklahoma City did a great job on it in the regular season. They held him to twenty two points per game on thirty six percent from the field in thirty two two percent from three. They forced him into three point five turnovers per game, which was above a season average. It is a team job, though Cason Wallace and Alex Cruso will both see time in this matchup. Alex in particular defended Ant really well in a couple of games he played in. The Thunder did a ton of double teaming and like gapping in driving lanes against Ant, and they were able to pretty consistently rotate out of it without giving up more than like a mildly contested catch and shoot three. Lou Dort super physical on Ant. He's got that unique combination of like the strength to hold up against Ant's power, but also the quickness to beat him to spots. He also did a good amount of denying, especially in their first game that they played this year, where he was just like getting physical with them off ball, just kind of two hands on his jersey face guarding, and that played Ant into some passive stretches. Interesting stat Ant took four fewer shots per game in this matchup than he did in his regular With his regular season average he averaged around twenty shots per game. He ended up taking about six team shots per game, specifically against Oklahoma City, and It's got a really tough job in this series. On the one hand, Minnesota's clear advantage on offense is at the power forward spot. Nasred scored nineteen or more points in all four games against Oklahoma City this year. I think he had a twenty seven point game as well. Julius Randall only played once and struggled, but he also will have substantial size advantages, and he's just playing at a much higher level than he was when he played against Oklahoma City way back, and I think it was like December in the game that he actually played in. So I think Ant's gonna need to, on one hand, avoid forcing the issue, play in the flow, keep it moving, make sure his forwards get their touches. But I also think this series will inevitably degrade into ugly half court shot making contests between him and Shay, and so for stretches, he'll need to be aggressive, and so he'll need to find ways to maintain his rhythm and apply a certain amount of aggression no matter what. But he also has to read the room and be like, this is a team that's got a million dudes who can defend guards and not a lot of guys who can defend forwards. So that's going to be his job to make sure as the point guard, or as the on ball guard getting a lot of opportunities for his bigs. And one of the things we've talked about a lot over the course of this playoff run is I kind of like Ant playing Moras and off the catch, old school two guard anyway, and so I want to see the aggressive but I think it's a good opportunity for him to be aggressive off of those post touches. For guys like Nas and for Julius, this is the next challenge and Ant's journey is a basketball player. I thought Golden State was probably the second best defense Ants ever faced, just because last year's MAVs team had a combination of a really strong on ball defender and Derek Jones Junior, but also rim protection with in terms of like real vertical size, which as good as Draymond Green is and he's arguably the best defender of this era, I wouldn't necessarily count him as like a vertical, really staunch rim protector, if that makes sense. And past that test and his last three wins against Golden State, he averaged twenty nine points, five rebounds, and seven assists on fifty percent from the field and forty seven percent from three. But this Oklahoma City defense is gonna present kind of the best of both of those teams. It's gonna be a lot of the depth of speed and on ball defense that Golden State presents, and I'd argue just better versions of those guys, but also the rim protection that Dallas had. The big difference is just the overall defensive playmaking and IQ of guys like Draymond and Jimmy Butler, Like that's gonna be less of a factor here, But I think just in terms of just pure on paper defensive talent. Okay, see, he's got a lot of stuff to match up with him. So I'm just really curious to see how Ant particularly handles the challenge. And as far as Dort goes in his job, you literally couldn't conceptualize a better physical build for a player to contend with Ant, strong enough to hold his ground, quick enough to beat him to spots. JDub on Julius Randall again. Julius did not play in three of the four matchups this year, but in the one matchup against Whoma City, he did not play well. Is eleven points, four turnovers. Jada bothered him with strength by beating him to spots and had the length to kind of poke at the ball every time Julius Randall exposed it. I trimmed a clip and posted it on Twitter this morning of just an example of Julius trying to go through j dub In not having any success because of his ability to attack the basketball. But again, Julius is playing at a much higher level now than he was back when that game took place. Julius is going to have substantially better physical advantages than ant throughout this series, and so they're gonna need him to be great with both Julius and Nas. One of the things I want to keep an eye on in this series. I was actually talking with Jackson before we started recording. This was one of the big swing factors for me. I can't get out of my head the problem that Denver had just simply getting the ball to Nicola jokicch in Game seven when Alex Caruso started denying and fronting. And this is going to be a series where I think Minnesota's gonna need to get the ball to Nos and they're gonna need to get the ball to Julius, and I think we could see a lot of that similar type of j dub and Alex Caruso post fronting, three quarter fronting, full on denial, just doing everything they can to prevent those post catches and to force turnovers when Minnesota tries to force the ball to those post mismatches. So let's keep an eye on that in this series. Just the specific challenge of Minnesota trying to get the ball to Julius and Nas in scoring position. I think we'll see Shay guard Mike Conley. Mike Conley's pretty low usage for the Wolves at this point. He runs about five ball screens per game in the playoffs, including passes, but he's getting zero point seven to seven points per possession. He's just two for ten on pull up jump shots in the postseason and just three for twelve on floaters, So not too much to worry about on ball in terms of Mike Conley, but he has been doing a good amount of damage off ball as like a transition scorer and as a spot up player. He's shooting forty one percent on catch and shoot threes so far in the playoffs. So Shay's just gonna have to do a good job of tracking it when he's in his help and recover situations. Mike's also been pretty successful as an offensive rebounder in this postseason. He's getting two rebounds two offensive rebounds per thirty six minutes. So he'll just have to be a little attentive to him crashing out of the corners. I think we'll see Chet holmgern on Jada McDaniels operating as a roamer again. He just has to be careful here. Jaden has been a very good offensive player in these playoffs. He's been active as a cutter, active as an offensive rebounder. He's shooting thirty five percent on threes. He's had some explosive scoring games. He had a thirty point game and a twenty five point game just in these playoffs, albeit in the Lakers matchup where he had a substantial athletic advantage. The job for Chet will be to be that effective kind of roam or just gotta be attentive to Jayden. If you let him get free runways to the basket over and over again, he can do real damage there. Isaiah Hartenstein on Rudy Gobert. Gobert played in just one game against Oklahoma City this year. He was a plus three and thirty one minutes. He had a couple of blocks, kind of the classic Gobert performance and that he makes some so much easier to guard on offense, but then he also causes substantial problems for Oklahoma City's offense with his rim protection. Isaia Hartenstein will be playing up off of him in ball screens, up high in pick and roll. That was something we talked about earlier. They're going to be up at the level against ant but he doesn't really have to worry about Gobert on the back line as a scoring threat. He does have offensive rebounding ability there, but in the regular season in their one game, he did just get two offensive rebounds, So Oklahoma City did do a good job in that one matchup of keeping him off the glass. We'll talk about this a little bit more later, but I think there's a potential for Hartenstein and Gobert to kind of have their roles minimized over the course of this series as both teams lean more into Chet and nas Reed at center. But we'll talk about that in a few minutes. Obviously, with Minnesota, you're dealing with a ton of depth, right and they're closing five. Often doesn't involve their starting lineup. Nas Reid and Dante Devincenzo are both over twenty five minutes per game in the postseason. Nikhil Alexander Walker is at nineteen minutes per game. Dante and Nikiel have been twice as frequently in the excuse me, Dante and nos Red have been twice as frequently in the closing lineup as Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert. So again, closing games are probably going to see Ant and Dante alongside Jayden with Julius and nos when we get down to win in time nas Red. As we mentioned before, nas has been their most effective scorer in this matchup in the regular season. He can beat nail help with above the break shooting. This was a big thing with Ant and screening actions. Just like little pick and pops or against switches when they are just digging down off the nail. He can get a clean look from like twenty six to twenty seven feet off of the wing. This is gonna be a big swing. Like if Naz can keep burning Okayse's help with three or threes over the top of contests, that's going to be a big factor in this series. And then he just has a lot of mismatch opportunities on the floor against Oklahoma City smaller players. He also, as we mentioned earlier, if they go away from Hart and Stein and Gobert over the course of the series, he'll have a ton of defensive responsibility as the sol center on the floor for extended stretches. So for Minnesota, I think Nazried is the biggest X factor in this series. It's all gonna be about on the OKAC front. Getting contests. In this postseason, nas is eighteen for thirty on unguarded catch and shoots. That's sixty percent, But he's two for ten when he's guarded, and if you chase him off the line in a spot up situation, he's shooting just two for seven on who's when he's driving close out. So being attentive to him off ball, chasing him off the line, getting good contests, and then attacking him on defense in space to see if he can contend. Like again, Nazrid, We've seen him be very effective guarding bigger players, but he can struggle at times guarding smaller players. Then with Dante Nikiel, these guys will be a critical to Minnesota success on many levels in this series. We'll talk about it in a minute, but they'll both spend time on shake kill just Alexander. I actually think we'll see more of Nikiel on Shay and we'll probably see more of Dante on Jadub, matching strength for strength, So they'll be playing a role in the defensive end. But these guys are gonna get a lot of catch and shoot opportunity this year. Nikkiel in particular, has gotten a ton of catch and shoot opportunities against OKC in the regular season. He hit ten threes in the four games, and in one particular game, Caint a crazy heater that put Minnesota into a commanding lead at one point. Overall keys for Oklahoma City when Minnesota's on offense, pressure and denials, especially if Nas and Julius and their post catches force ant to pass the ball effectively, those post entries could be the entryway to them getting out in transition against this team. So that's going to be the key for them. And then with Minnesota, find your advantages, make fundamental post entries, so pass fakes, and then Julius and Nas have to do a good job of ceiling. That was the big mistake Yokich was making in yesterday's game, as he wasn't ceiling on that passing angle. You got to create a clear passing window and then from there play out of those advantages. I would love to see Ant attacking off the catch early and often in this series, and then as a group, and this goes for both teams. He just got to knock down your catch and shoot threes. That's going to be a big swing in this series, all right, moving forward to Oklahoma City. On offense, the matchups we'll see Jada McDaniels start on Shae. Shaye absolutely fried Minnesota this year. There's no way around it. He had thirty seven or more and three of the four matchups really had the three point shot going. He was able to get in the lane and draw fouls an absurd amount of times attempted forty eight free throws in this season series. In theory, Jayden should be able to do better than he did. He's got the length and quickness to guard a guy like es Sga. Part of it was pressure as a team, Shae just was they were picking him up further out, Very different than the Denver matchup where they're kind of like more playing off of him and containing and trying to bait him into taking bad over the top jump shots. Minnesota was pressuring him and he was just going right around the first guy and kind of getting a head of steam into the lane where he was just drawing foul after foul after foul. I would like to see, I know this kind of goes against everything that Minnesota does, but I would like to see at least at some point an attempt from Jaden to play more of a contain and contest style of defense against meaning like give him more space play in that kind of like range where he can contain the drive but get a late contest on a pull up jump shot prevent him from getting that easy dribble penetration that led to all the fouls that he was drawing in this matchup. But I'm a little worried that they're just gonna lean into the pressure just because that's who they are as a basketball team. We will see, but once again, it'll be a team job. I think the Keel will get a lot of reps in this matchup. And then obviously off ball gapping, shrinking the floor, closing off those driving lanes. Shay did shoot the ball very well from three in this matchup. He made ten threes in the four games on over fifty percent from the from the three point line. Ain't guarding Jdubb. I'm a little worried about this matchup just because Ant's gonna have such a big offensive workload, and his tendency over the years has been to die on screens from time to time when he gets tired, So I think it'll be a jump shooting series for JDub. The Wolves will have bodies behind him. He's not gonna get all the way to paint that often, or all the way into the to the rim that often, especially when Rudy's back there. But Jadub's gonna have a lot of opportunities if Ant gets caught on screens to take and make shots in the mid range. Interestingly enough, as bad as Jadeb's been from three, he's been just twenty five percent from three in this postseason. He's twenty one for thirty nine on two point jump shots. That's one point zero eight points per shot. So an analytically sound mid range game from JDub so far in this postseason. So like I could see him getting a lot of looks against drop coverage in the middle of the floor. If Ant struggles to navigate screens, Let's keep an eye on that. Mike Conley on lou Dort getting contests on Dort after helping in the lane. That's gonna be the job for Conley lou Dort this postseason. Thirty five percent on unguarded threes, twenty four percent unguarded catch and shoot threes. So gotta get good close outs and then keeping him off the offensive glass. We saw this a lot in Game seven, but lou Dort does a lot of crashing, especially because it's similar toly similarly to what we talked about with Aaron Nee Smith in the Pacers Knicks matchup. He's picking up full court anyway, so it just kind of gives him a free license to crash towards the front of the rim because he's gonna end up picking up the ball there anyway. So with Mike Conley, it's just gonna be about putting his body in front of him, you know, and just taking away those easy opportunities that he can get and then getting a good close out. I actually like the matchup for Conley strictly in terms of contesting, because I think that fits his speed well. But I'm a little worried about him getting beat up on the offensive glass. Julius Randall on Chet home grin. I think we'll see nas Reed a little bit here as well, especially like we talked about earlier, if the team's downsize, it's a good matchup for both of those guys. Chet has been below a point per shot on catch and shoot jumpers in the entire playoffs. He shot just six for twenty seven from three against Denver, So I think both guys will be able to help in the lane. They'll just have to make sure they throw good closeouts, be effective as helpers in the lane. If you're gonna be off ball, he better be helping. And then on Chet's attacks, they just need to attack his base with their strength. They both have a big strength advantage there on Chet's front. On this side, like he's gonna keep getting good luck, the good looks that he got in the Denver series that he got in the Memphis series. So Check can swing this series in a big way if he just hits the shots that he's been missing so far in this postseason and then go go Bar and Hartenstein more help and recover, kind of like we saw with Jokic over the course of the tail end of the Denver O KC series, if you swipe at Hartenstein on his floater, like if you swipe down low, or if you get a good contest off a high like, you'll see Hartenstein miss that floater. It actually was super interesting in that series because so many teams over the course of the regular season would basically just concede, like, oh, if they saw Hartenstein catch, they just let him take his floater, and it would just go in over and over and over again. And Jokis was the first guy I've seen like really aggressively attack Hartenstein before he'd shoot the floater, and he forced him into a lot of misses on that shot. So Rudy Gobert, I think could take a note from that, especially with his longer arms and to get good contests on Hartenstein in the floaters. But again, I'm wondering how much we'll see both of these guys in this series. Dagnall had to lean into Hartenstein a lot in the in the Denver series just because of Jokic and the need they had to match up with his size and strength. I could see him going smaller here. I could see Gobart becoming a nightmare for Minnesota spacing against Oklahoma City's defense. So I wouldn't be surprised if we looked back on this series in both Gobert and Hartenstein played less than twenty minutes per game. I think that's something to keep an eye on as we go into this round. And then Oklahoma City's bench kase On Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, and Alex Cruso have been their more reliable catch and shoot guys even than their starters, like Cruso forty two percent from three in the playoffs. Kase On Wallace and Aaron Wiggins each had three games in the Denver series where they hit multiple threes. So those are guys who are going to have to keep an eye on when they're helping in the lane, on like Jadub and Shay when they're driving. My prediction, again, I went back and forth on this one a bunch of times. My initial, kind of like gut instinct, was the lead toward Ministers because of their experience and because I just thought Naseried and Julius Randall were better offensive players than some of these guys that Oklahoma City had. But I could very easily say the exact same thing about the Denver matchup. Jamal Murray Aaron Gordon. Those guys are more reliable offensive players in theory, and they couldn't score against Oklahoma City. And what ultimately made up my mind was a lot of what I saw in Game seven yesterday, which is just that Oklahoma City's defense, in my opinion, even though Minnesota's defense is great, I think Oklahoma City's defense is another tier above Minnesota, not necessarily on paper in terms of talent, but just the sheer togree, the sheer degree to which they fight on every single possession, for every single inch, for simple things like post entries, just getting the ball ap half court, like oh Dort's picking up Aaron Gordon full court just on a random possession, and forcing yet another turnover that leads to a runout the other way, these are the two top teams in the league at forcing opponent turnovers in the postseason. Minnesota is averaging fifteen point nine opponent turnovers. Okase He's averaging eighteen point three. There's a large gap even between the two of them as the top two turnover forcing teams in the NBA. I view, the gap between these two defenses as more substantial than the gap and offensive skill and experience that I think Minnesota has an advantage in. So I'm picking Oklahoma City to win this series in six games. I think Ant ends up having a rough series. I think that even though Julius and Nas have their advantages, I think Oklahoma City does a good job of disrupting those feeds and that in aggregate they're forcing turnovers that actually ends up working out in their favor. And I just think overall Oklahoma City will have more extended and dramatic stretches of destructive defense that does too much damage for Minnesota to recover from. But to be clear, I absolutely think Minnesota can win the series. I'd argue they're the better betting option in terms of the odds. There's a clear path for them. Ant is absolutely capable about playing Shay Gil's alley Xander as a shot maker and as a playmaker in the series. If he does that, that's a big swing. If Nas and Julius do get the ball effectively in their spots on the floor, and they do score effectively and draw two to the ball and get the ball out effectively without turning the ball over too much, that could make Minnesota very comfortable in offense role player shooting. If guys like Dante and Nas and Jayden, all these dudes just shoot better than Oklahoma City's role players that could play a role. And then again, even though I think Minnesota's defense is not as good as Oklahoma City's, it's sure as hell a lot better than Denver's defense or Memphis's defense, and so they could potentially cause a lot of damage to Oklahoma City's offense. Like I wouldn't be surprised if Game one, for instance, ended up being a series that ended up being a game that went Minnesota's way, just because Minnesota is a little bit more comfortable going against an elite defense because they just did so, whereas Oklahoma City will be baptism by fire going into a tougher defense. That's it. I don't think Home Court's going to manage a matter much in this series at all. Both of these teams are super athletic. Both of these teams are going to be comfortable playing on the road with their defense. I think even if Minnesota won Game one, it wouldn't have the same kind of feel as if per Se the Pacers stole Game one in New York, where I think home court for Indiana is such a huge advantage, right, so keep an eye on that. I think Minnesota's path is the steel Game one. I think they have a good chance to steal Game one because of the shock and awe value of their defense. But over the course of the series, I think Oklahoma City will settle in and I think they have the better defense, and I think it's enough of an advantage to make up for the experience and offense advantages that Minnesota has. All Right, guys, that's all I have for today. As always, a sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show. As you guys know, there's no game tonight, so everyone enjoy the night. Will be back. No show tomorrow morning, obviously, but we'll be back tomorrow night. After the final buzzer of Western Conference Finals Game one. We'll be live on YouTube, you know, for a half hour or so, and then after the game we'll be heading over to playback dot tv slashops tonight for our after show where we get informal take callers, talk shit, have fun, watch film, all that kind of stuff. Got a big, big night plan for you guys, tomorrow. We will see you guys then. What's up guys. As always, I appreciate you for listening to and supporting OOPS tonight. They would actually be really helpful for us if you guys would take a second and leave a rating and a review. As always, I appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take a minute to do that, I really appreciate it. The volume. It's a great time of year to get out and see some of these live events. 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