Head analyst at WeatherWatch, Phillip Duncan, told Kerre Woodham it is remarkable how accurate computer modelling of Cyclone Gabrielle was, even as far as eight or nine days ago.

LISTEN ABOVE

Head analyst at WeatherWatch, Phillip Duncan, told Kerre Woodham it is remarkable how accurate computer modelling of Cyclone Gabrielle was, even as far as eight or nine days ago.
LISTEN ABOVE

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Kerre Woodham Mornings Podcast

Phillip Duncan: Head analyst at WeatherWatch says accuracy of computer modelling for Cyclone Gabrielle is remarkable

You'll have heard it in our news, since Monday the 20th of April, 18 people have been killed in 14 separate crashes on our roads. As of this morning, 12 more lives have been lost on New Zealand roads so far this year compared to the same point last year. To give some context though, our road tolls today are nothing like the bad old days. Back in 1973, long before many of you were born, when we had a much smaller population and fewer cars on the road, the road toll was around 850 deaths. And you can only imagine the injuries involved in those as well. In 1975 seatbelts in cars became compulsory and the road toll began to decline. It was around about 625 in 1975 – that was considered cause for celebration. And over time, it's come down to fewer than 300 deaths on the road thanks to seatbelts, thanks to better engineering of cars, thanks to improved medical outcomes and rigorous enforcement of traffic rules.  

But the fact that things are better than they used to be will be cold comfort to the families of those killed, to the first responders and to the poor bloody truckies who are travelling along the highway, minding their own business, doing the speed limit, big heavy load on the back, and then watching as inevitable disaster unfolds right in front of them as a car veers across the centre line and heads towards them at 100km/h. There is nowhere for them to go. They cannot stop in time. They just have to wait for the inevitable, which would be horrific. Preliminary findings found 16 of the 18 deaths over these past 10 days occurred on open roads with 100km/h speed limits and no traffic safety barriers. Of those 18 deaths, six of them weren't wearing seatbelts. So there's an obvious fix – buckle up.  

The other must be looking at wire median barriers. There's a barrier stretching around three and a half kilometres on the Kapiti Coast along Centennial Highway. That used to be a dreadful section of road – there was nowhere to go. There was a sheer rock face on one side and the sea on the other. A very narrow stretch of road around the coast. In the decade before the first part of the wire median barrier went up in 2005, 16 people were killed, 14 seriously injured in 15 major crashes. So the $15 million barrier was extended in 2007, and between 2007 and 2015, there were no deaths or serious injuries on that part of the highway. The barrier had been struck 122 times since it was installed, but no deaths or serious injuries. Goodness knows what that number would be today in 2026, 11 years later.  

I know motorcyclists are wary of the cheese cutters. There are all sorts of dreadful stories about decapitations from the wire barriers, but the numbers don't lie. They save far more lives than they take. Even so, you cannot put a barrier down the length of New Zealand. I mean, even if we had the money, would it be advisable to do so? You just have to look at the numbers I suppose and see where the most fatals occur, and put the wire barriers there. And in the meantime, as a road user, you just have to rely on people doing the right thing. You have to rely on them driving roadworthy cars, not driving while they're tired, not driving under the influence of drugs and or alcohol, and paying attention to the conditions. That doesn't seem too much to ask.  

But in the meantime, what are your fixes? You know, the police are tearing their hair out and I just feel for the truckies. You more than anyone must see the near misses, must know how bad those figures could really be, were it not for divine providence. What would you like to see as the people most on the road, most at risk of being an unwilling and faultless participant in fatal crashes? I mean, buckling your seatbelt, I thought as a generation we all did. We all grew up where you buckled your seatbelt and you told your parents because they hadn't grown up with that. Everybody knew. The boss was reminding me of the olden, olden days, and I can vaguely remember where there were no retractable seatbelts. That must have been a wow invention when that happened. Used to have to hang the seatbelts up by their hook in the old Holden Kingswood. But they saved lives almost immediately. From the time they were introduced, the road toll came down by 200, and in the last 10 days, six lives could easily have been saved had they buckled up. 

You'll have heard it in our news, since Monday the 20th of April, 18 people have been killed in 14 separate crashes on our roads. As of this morning, 12 more lives have been lost on New Zealand roads so far this year compared to the same point last year. To give some context though, our road tolls today are nothing like the bad old days. Back in 1973, long before many of you were born, when we had a much smaller population and fewer cars on the road, the road toll was around 850 deaths. And you can only imagine the injuries involved in those as well. In 1975 seatbelts in cars became compulsory and the road toll began to decline. It was around about 625 in 1975 – that was considered cause for celebration. And over time, it's come down to fewer than 300 deaths on the road thanks to seatbelts, thanks to better engineering of cars, thanks to improved medical outcomes and rigorous enforcement of traffic rules. &nbsp;
But the fact that things are better than they used to be will be cold comfort to the families of those killed, to the first responders and to the poor bloody truckies who are travelling along the highway, minding their own business, doing the speed limit, big heavy load on the back, and then watching as inevitable disaster unfolds right in front of them as a car veers across the centre line and heads towards them at 100km/h. There is nowhere for them to go. They cannot stop in time. They just have to wait for the inevitable, which would be horrific. Preliminary findings found 16 of the 18 deaths over these past 10 days occurred on open roads with 100km/h speed limits and no traffic safety barriers. Of those 18 deaths, six of them weren't wearing seatbelts. So there's an obvious fix – buckle up. &nbsp;
The other must be looking at wire median barriers. There's a barrier stretching around three and a half kilometres on the Kapiti Coast along Centennial Highway. That used to be a dreadful section of road – there was nowhere to go. There was a sheer rock face on one side and the sea on the other. A very narrow stretch of road around the coast. In the decade before the first part of the wire median barrier went up in 2005, 16 people were killed, 14 seriously injured in 15 major crashes. So the $15 million barrier was extended in 2007, and between 2007 and 2015, there were no deaths or serious injuries on that part of the highway. The barrier had been struck 122 times since it was installed, but no deaths or serious injuries. Goodness knows what that number would be today in 2026, 11 years later. &nbsp;
I know motorcyclists are wary of the cheese cutters. There are all sorts of dreadful stories about decapitations from the wire barriers, but the numbers don't lie. They save far more lives than they take. Even so, you cannot put a barrier down the length of New Zealand. I mean, even if we had the money, would it be advisable to do so? You just have to look at the numbers I suppose and see where the most fatals occur, and put the wire barriers there. And in the meantime, as a road user, you just have to rely on people doing the right thing. You have to rely on them driving roadworthy cars, not driving while they're tired, not driving under the influence of drugs and or alcohol, and paying attention to the conditions. That doesn't seem too much to ask. &nbsp;
But in the meantime, what are your fixes? You know, the police are tearing their hair out and I just feel for the truckies. You more than anyone must see the near misses, must know how bad those figures could really be, were it not for divine providence. What would you like to see as the people most on the road, most at risk of being an unwilling and faultless participant in fatal crashes? I mean, buckling your seatbelt, I thought as a generation we all did. We all grew up where you buckled your seatbelt and you told your parents because they hadn't grown up with that. Everybody knew. The boss was reminding me of the olden, olden days, and I can vaguely remember where there were no retractable seatbelts. That must have been a wow invention when that happened. Used to have to hang the seatbelts up by their hook in the old Holden Kingswood. But they saved lives almost immediately. From the time they were introduced, the road toll came down by 200, and in the last 10 days, six lives could easily have been saved had they buckled up.&nbsp;

Kerre Woodham: The road toll still needs reducing

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/ad7299a0-c52a-4597-985c-b43d0006227a/transcript

You know it's an election year, don't you? You know it's an election year when Winston's fermenting merry mischief, when the leader of the opposition is happy to put himself up for an hour of questions on talkback, and when lobby groups are releasing their election wish lists. 

The Cancer Society has released its election manifesto and is calling on the next Government, however it looks, to spend dollars to save them. For example, if you invest $5.5 million a year to deliver a national skin cancer prevention and early detection programme, more than 90% of cases will be prevented – nearly all cases are treatable when detected early. Every dollar invested, according to the Cancer Society, returns $11.90 in savings.  

And when you think of friends and family who have been through cancer treatment, you can understand how that would stack up. If you don't have to go through the torturous and expensive and generally lifesaving treatments, you are saving so much. So much of your own energy, so much time, so much money as a result of not getting cancer in the first place or early detection. As Cancer Society Chief Executive Nicola Coom told Mike Hosking this morning, given that cancer's New Zealand's biggest killer, it makes sense to invest in early detection and treatments. 

“One in three of us in New Zealand will receive a cancer diagnosis in our lifetime, but what's startling is one in three can also be prevented. So 81 people today around New Zealand are going to hear that they've got cancer. What this manifesto is about is we want those people to either A, not have that news in the first place, or B, be told it's okay, we've detected it early, your prognosis is good.” 

So the Cancer Society also wants to see cervical screening fully funded at a cost of $21 million per year and deliver on the 90% HPV immunisation target by 2030. You get that immunisation rate up and that eliminates cervical cancer. Invest the $5.5 million a year to deliver the skin cancer prevention and early detection programme, fund a lung cancer screening programme and begin rolling it out over the next three years, lower the bowel screening starting age to 50 and protect children and families from the commercial drivers of cancer. It all makes sense. If you can spend a dollar to save 11, why would you not? And you can say well the money's not there, but it is. It is there within the health budget. Imagine. Imagine if you didn't have to go through that whole gruelling process of trying to treat a cancer which could have been detected early, which could have been prevented in the first place when you look at the HPV immunisation. 

Cancer does not have to be a death sentence anymore. Breast cancer used to be, once you got the news about that, it was basically “set your affairs in order”. But as a result of new treatments, as a result of detection programmes, you no longer see it as a death sentence. 86% of people who are diagnosed with breast cancer survive 10 years or longer now. With skin cancers, if they're detected early, bowel cancer if you have the screening programme and can pick up the polyps that can turn into something life threatening, there is no reason for us to go through the agony of seeing somebody sicken and die. 

There will still be some that are just the anomalies of cancer cells being in your body and it's just your DNA and your bad luck and hopefully next life round you have a better run of it. But for many people it's detectable and if you have the early screening, you find it, the treatments are less severe, less harsh, less gruelling, less expensive. No brainer. I'd absolutely back the Cancer Society's election manifesto on that and I'll ask Chris Hipkins about that, but I'd love to hear from those of you who know exactly what this is all about, who've been there, who've done that, who've either had early detection or because of gaps in the system did not have the early detection and had a poorer outcome, tell me your story. 

You know it's an election year, don't you? You know it's an election year when Winston's fermenting merry mischief, when the leader of the opposition is happy to put himself up for an hour of questions on talkback, and when lobby groups are releasing their election wish lists.&nbsp;
The Cancer Society has released its election manifesto and is calling on the next Government, however it looks, to spend dollars to save them. For example, if you invest $5.5 million a year to deliver a national skin cancer prevention and early detection programme, more than 90% of cases will be prevented – nearly all cases are treatable when detected early. Every dollar invested, according to the Cancer Society, returns $11.90 in savings. &nbsp;
And when you think of friends and family who have been through cancer treatment, you can understand how that would stack up. If you don't have to go through the torturous and expensive and generally lifesaving treatments, you are saving so much. So much of your own energy, so much time, so much money as a result of not getting cancer in the first place or early detection. As Cancer Society Chief Executive Nicola Coom told Mike Hosking this morning, given that cancer's New Zealand's biggest killer, it makes sense to invest in early detection and treatments.&nbsp;
“One in three of us in New Zealand will receive a cancer diagnosis in our lifetime, but what's startling is one in three can also be prevented. So 81 people today around New Zealand are going to hear that they've got cancer. What this manifesto is about is we want those people to either A, not have that news in the first place, or B, be told it's okay, we've detected it early, your prognosis is good.”&nbsp;
So the Cancer Society also wants to see cervical screening fully funded at a cost of $21 million per year and deliver on the 90% HPV immunisation target by 2030. You get that immunisation rate up and that eliminates cervical cancer. Invest the $5.5 million a year to deliver the skin cancer prevention and early detection programme, fund a lung cancer screening programme and begin rolling it out over the next three years, lower the bowel screening starting age to 50 and protect children and families from the commercial drivers of cancer. It all makes sense. If you can spend a dollar to save 11, why would you not? And you can say well the money's not there, but it is. It is there within the health budget. Imagine. Imagine if you didn't have to go through that whole gruelling process of trying to treat a cancer which could have been detected early, which could have been prevented in the first place when you look at the HPV immunisation.&nbsp;
Cancer does not have to be a death sentence anymore. Breast cancer used to be, once you got the news about that, it was basically “set your affairs in order”. But as a result of new treatments, as a result of detection programmes, you no longer see it as a death sentence. 86% of people who are diagnosed with breast cancer survive 10 years or longer now. With skin cancers, if they're detected early, bowel cancer if you have the screening programme and can pick up the polyps that can turn into something life threatening, there is no reason for us to go through the agony of seeing somebody sicken and die.&nbsp;
There will still be some that are just the anomalies of cancer cells being in your body and it's just your DNA and your bad luck and hopefully next life round you have a better run of it. But for many people it's detectable and if you have the early screening, you find it, the treatments are less severe, less harsh, less gruelling, less expensive. No brainer. I'd absolutely back the Cancer Society's election manifesto on that and I'll ask Chris Hipkins about that, but I'd love to hear from those of you who know exactly what this is all about, who've been there, who've done that, who've either had early detection or because of gaps in the system did not have the early detection and had a poorer outcome, tell me your story.&nbsp;

Kerre Woodham: Funding cancer prevention is a no-brainer

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/e5f4148a-7643-4f0b-9711-b43c00185828/transcript

Labour Leader Chris Hipkins is standing by the decision to wait until after the Budget to announce the party's election policies.  

The party has come under fire from the Coalition for its lack of policies so far.  

Labour's has revealed plans for a Capital Gains Tax, a Future Fund, and a plan to boost the video game sector rebate from 20% to 25%.  

It's promised three free doctors visits a year, a change to GP funding, as well as a Family Doctor Loan Scheme.  

Hipkins told Kerre Woodham he doesn't want to make promises that can't be kept, and waiting till the Government sets out the finances is the responsible thing to do. 

He’s also signalled he’s open to discussions around potentially means-testing Superannuation.  

The party is calling for the Super age to remain at 65, but at the same time, government briefings suggest keeping it the same would result in more spending.  

Hipkins told Woodham he doesn't back full means-testing, but there are questions about whether someone working full-time on a six-figure salary should get the pension. 

He says a conversation would have to be held in a constructive, bipartisan way. 

LISTEN ABOVE  

Labour Leader Chris Hipkins is standing by the decision to wait until after the Budget to announce the party's election policies. &nbsp;
The party has come under fire from the Coalition for its lack of policies so far. &nbsp;
Labour's has revealed plans for a Capital Gains Tax, a Future Fund, and a plan to boost the video game sector rebate from 20% to 25%. &nbsp;
It's promised three free doctors visits a year, a change to GP funding, as well as a Family Doctor Loan Scheme. &nbsp;
Hipkins told Kerre Woodham he doesn't want to make promises that can't be kept, and waiting till the Government sets out the finances is the responsible thing to do.&nbsp;
He’s also signalled he’s open to discussions around potentially means-testing Superannuation. &nbsp;
The party is calling for the Super age to remain at 65, but at the same time, government briefings suggest keeping it the same would result in more spending. &nbsp;
Hipkins told Woodham he doesn't back full means-testing, but there are questions about whether someone working full-time on a six-figure salary should get the pension.&nbsp;
He says a conversation would have to be held in a constructive, bipartisan way.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE &nbsp;

Chris Hipkins: Labour Leader discusses election policy, Superannuation, India FTA

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/71e1c88f-c1ce-49b6-903e-b43c00032167/transcript

Phillip Duncan: Head analyst at WeatherWatch says accuracy of computer modelling for Cyclone Gabrielle is remarkable

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