The headline in the Herald read “New Zealand population bombshell” – but is the news really that much of a bombshell? We know we have an ageing population. We know that we're not replacing ourselves with babies. And we know that there's going to be a real crunch when it comes to finding sufficient workers in the next 20 odd years.  

According to a report that the Herald quotes from Sir Peter Gluckman and Emeritus Professor Paul Spoonley, their new report People, Place and Prosperity says the colliding trends of a slowing population growth and a reliance on immigration to drive workforce and population growth, an ageing population requiring more public services, and growing ethnic diversity presents both opportunities and challenges. The opportunities include making the most of the skills, innovation, and creativity that such diversity can offer, but this can be undermined by political populism appealing to xenophobic tendencies – looking at you New Zealand First.  

We've known for some time now that we're not having enough babies to replace ourselves. In the late 19th century, women settlers had on average seven children, but this rate halved by the early 20th century. Births per women doubled after the Second World War, then dropped in the 1970s. By December 2017, it had fallen to an average of 1.81 live births per woman, below the 2.01 average maintained between 1980 and 2015 and now annual population growth has dropped from 1.7% in 23/24 to 0.7 in 24/25 and it’s projected to remain below 1% in the coming decades.  

Emeritus Professor Spoonley said the total fertility rate was at replacement level a decade ago, but last year it was the lowest it's ever been. You can't really blame young couples for not having families of five or six. I mean, what was normal a couple of generations ago seems aberrant now. Student loans, cost of housing, cost of living, an uncertain world. It's hardly surprising that families are restricting, that young couples are restricting their families. But the fact remains that even if AI fills some of the worker shortages, we're still going to need real life people to keep the country going. And if we're not making those people ourselves, then we're going to have to import them. And that's where Professor Spoonley says we have to have a reasonable, sensible discussion about what that will look like. 

“Let's have an adult conversation about this. Let's not descend to pointing fingers or making jokes or you know this is a serious issue. So I think we should all be involved and interested in this debate and let's try and keep it up. We're going to need a lot of workers in the future because our population is turning at this point because of declining fertility and ageing. So we're getting people exiting out of the workforce at the top end and we're getting fewer entering the workforce at the bottom end. So immigration becomes super important. I mean you and I rocking up to a hospital today, 40% of our nurses, I don't know what the number is for doctors, are overseas trained.” 

 Yes, quite. I mean what would we do with a number of the essential services without our migrant workers? So less of the not particularly clever jibes from Shane Jones and a bit more respect for the people who do choose to come here and contribute to our country and our wellbeing. Because remember, other countries are facing the same issue, or the same issues – an ageing workforce, a declining population. So we will be in competition with them for migrant workers.  

And it's no good thinking we can bribe or blackmail or entice or lure young women into filling their wombs. That's been tried overseas and it hasn't worked. Poland introduced a zero-income tax law for families with two or more children. Hungary, mothers who have four or more children are exempt from personal income tax. Hungary also offers a state subsidised family housing loan that provides low interest mortgages and partial debt forgiveness for married couples who commit to having children. Imagine. France, anyone who has two or more children receive a means adjusted payout depending on the number of children. Italy, Estonia, Turkey, I mean you name it. South Korea, Japan, they've all tried to entice women, couples to have more babies and it's not working.  

I don't know. Certainly talking to couples in their mid 30s, they would have more children if they felt they could afford them. Would zero income tax do it for you? Low interest mortgages? Would that do it for you? Is it an uncertain world that's putting you off bringing children into it? What is it that has meant that you have stopped at the children you have or chosen not to have children at all? Is it simply a matter of money? And when it comes to enticing people to come and live here, sure AI might fix some of the shortages, we're still going to need people, and we need to welcome them. Otherwise we really will just be a poorly serviced retirement village at the bottom of the South Pacific and that's all we will be.