Six days before the consequential midterm races and no one knows what will happen. Except us. We make our predictions on Senate races in Texas, Michigan, Maine, and Alaska, and compare our picks to the Polymarket odds.

Texas gets a deep look at James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton, including Talarico’s play for independent voters that could finally turn Texas blue, in spite of Republican campaign ads urging voters to stick to their team instead of thinking for themselves. Senate races in Maine (Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson) and Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers) each get their own prediction round with real betting-market numbers attached, before the crew circles back to Alaska's Peltola-Sullivan race to close the predictions segment. 

Independent Voter Podcast now has its own YouTube channel! If you enjoy these conversations, subscribe to our dedicated channel for full episodes, interviews, and future content: https://youtube.com/@IndependentVoterPodcast

Listen to more episodes and read in-depth coverage at:

https://ivn.us

https://independentvoterproject.org

Follow and subscribe on audio platforms:

https://open.spotify.com/show/1VnqtqjZh9EbmDtVxvHF3R

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/independent-voter-podcast/id1680559155

Chapters:

00:00:00 – Paxton's Record, Collins' Closing Message, and Alaska's Two Dan Sullivans

00:03:21 – How Ranked Choice Voting Breaks the Spoiler Game

00:06:23 – The Slow Count Myth and an Ad Selling the Opposite of Its Measure

00:10:05 – Texas by the Numbers: Modeled Party Data and Sean's Call

00:14:01 – Cara and Chad on Texas: Runoffs, Fox News, and 2.7 Million Independents

00:18:05 – The Betting Odds Shift and Maine Enters the Picture

00:21:24 – Maine: "We Do Not Endorse Troy Jackson" and the 96 Percent Problem

00:24:34 – Michigan: El-Sayed, Rogers, and Why the Polling Keeps Missing

00:28:50 – Alaska Predictions: Peltola, Ballot Measure 2, and the Decertify Lawsuit

00:32:24 – Scary Stories, Miscalibrated Machines, and Legalized Rigging

 

Six days before the consequential midterm races and no one knows what will happen. Except us. We make our predictions on Senate races in Texas, Michigan, Maine, and Alaska, and compare our picks to the Polymarket odds.
Texas gets a deep look at James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton, including Talarico&rsquo;s play for independent voters that could finally turn Texas blue, in spite of Republican campaign ads urging voters to stick to their team instead of thinking for themselves. Senate races in Maine (Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson) and Michigan (Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers) each get their own prediction round with real betting-market numbers attached, before the crew circles back to Alaska's Peltola-Sullivan race to close the predictions segment.&nbsp;
Independent Voter Podcast now has its own YouTube channel! If you enjoy these conversations, subscribe to our dedicated channel for full episodes, interviews, and future content: <a href="https://youtube.com/@IndependentVoterPodcast">https://youtube.com/@IndependentVoterPodcast</a>
Listen to more episodes and read in-depth coverage at:
<a href="https://ivn.us">https://ivn.us</a>
<a href="https://independentvoterproject.org">https://independentvoterproject.org</a>
Follow and subscribe on audio platforms:
<a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/1VnqtqjZh9EbmDtVxvHF3R">https://open.spotify.com/show/1VnqtqjZh9EbmDtVxvHF3R</a>
<a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/independent-voter-podcast/id1680559155">https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/independent-voter-podcast/id1680559155</a>
Chapters:
00:00:00 &ndash; Paxton's Record, Collins' Closing Message, and Alaska's Two Dan Sullivans
00:03:21 &ndash; How Ranked Choice Voting Breaks the Spoiler Game
00:06:23 &ndash; The Slow Count Myth and an Ad Selling the Opposite of Its Measure
00:10:05 &ndash; Texas by the Numbers: Modeled Party Data and Sean's Call
00:14:01 &ndash; Cara and Chad on Texas: Runoffs, Fox News, and 2.7 Million Independents
00:18:05 &ndash; The Betting Odds Shift and Maine Enters the Picture
00:21:24 &ndash; Maine: "We Do Not Endorse Troy Jackson" and the 96 Percent Problem
00:24:34 &ndash; Michigan: El-Sayed, Rogers, and Why the Polling Keeps Missing
00:28:50 &ndash; Alaska Predictions: Peltola, Ballot Measure 2, and the Decertify Lawsuit
00:32:24 &ndash; Scary Stories, Miscalibrated Machines, and Legalized Rigging
&nbsp;

Tired of being told what to think by partisan gatekeepers? So are we.
The Independent Voter Podcast brings you conversations that challenge the two-party echo chamber and reject the false binaries dominating today’s political narratives. We focus on two things:
 (1) Election reforms that increase real competition and voter choice, and
 (2) Policy issues that defy the black-and-white frameworks set by national party agendas.

We’ve been called everything: liberals, undercover Republicans, progressives, socialists, libertarians—even anarchists. And depending on the article, they’re all true.
We are open to any voice that follows our simple etiquette. If you believe political independence is a mindset, not a middle ground, you’re in the right place.
This the Independent Voter Podcast..

Tired of being told what to think by partisan gatekeepers? So are we. The Independent Voter Podcast brings you conversations that challenge the two-party echo chamber and reject the false binaries dominating today&rsquo;s political narratives. We focus on two things: &nbsp;(1)&nbsp;Election reforms that increase real competition and voter choice, and &nbsp;(2)&nbsp;Policy issues that defy the black-and-white frameworks set by national party agendas.
We&rsquo;ve been called everything: liberals, undercover Republicans, progressives, socialists, libertarians&mdash;even anarchists. And depending on the article, they&rsquo;re all true. We are open to any voice that follows our simple etiquette. If you believe political independence is a mindset, not a middle ground, you&rsquo;re in the right place. This the Independent Voter Podcast..

Independent Voter Podcast

Tired of being told what to think by partisan gatekeepers? So are we.
The Independent Voter Podcast brings you conversations that challenge the two-party echo chamber and reject the false binaries dominating today’s political narratives. We focus on two things:
 (1) Election reforms that increase real competition and voter choice, and
 (2) Policy issues that defy the black-and-white frameworks set by national party agendas.

We’ve been called everything: liberals, undercover Republicans, progressives, socialists, libertarians—even anarchists. And depending on the article, they’re all true.
We are open to any voice that follows our simple etiquette. If you believe political independence is a mindset, not a middle ground, you’re in the right place.
This the Independent Voter Podcast.

Tired of being told what to think by partisan gatekeepers? So are we. The Independent Voter Podcast brings you conversations that challenge the two-party echo chamber and reject the false binaries dominating today&rsquo;s political narratives. We focus on two things: &nbsp;(1)&nbsp;Election reforms that increase real competition and voter choice, and &nbsp;(2)&nbsp;Policy issues that defy the black-and-white frameworks set by national party agendas.
We&rsquo;ve been called everything: liberals, undercover Republicans, progressives, socialists, libertarians&mdash;even anarchists. And depending on the article, they&rsquo;re all true. We are open to any voice that follows our simple etiquette. If you believe political independence is a mindset, not a middle ground, you&rsquo;re in the right place. This the Independent Voter Podcast.