Suggestions the wheels are falling off the economy faster than expected.

The Reserve Bank today held the Official Cash Rate at 5.5 percent, with the next review of monetary policy happening in late November.

There's no saying whether the OCR will rise again, but the central bank is signalling it doesn't expect it to drop until early 2025.

But BNZ's head of research, Stephen Toplis, says he predicts unemployment will rise above five percent next year.

"You'll see inflation out of the system, you'll see wage growth markedly lower than where it is- and the economy is still bouncing along the bottom."

LISTEN ABOVE

Suggestions the wheels are falling off the economy faster than expected.
The Reserve Bank today held the Official Cash Rate at 5.5 percent, with the next review of monetary policy happening in late November.
There's no saying whether the OCR will rise again, but the central bank is signalling it doesn't expect it to drop until early 2025.
But BNZ's head of research, Stephen Toplis, says he predicts unemployment will rise above five percent next year.
"You'll see inflation out of the system, you'll see wage growth markedly lower than where it is- and the economy is still bouncing along the bottom."
LISTEN ABOVE

With a straight down the middle approach, Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive on Newstalk ZB delivers the very latest news and views to New Zealanders as they wrap up their day.

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive

Stephen Toplis: BNZ head of research predicts unemployment will rise above 5.5 percent by 2024

Now, just for the avoidance of doubt, let me tell you what happened here with this mistake that led to 30,000 people missing out on Winter Energy Payments and benefits.

It happened because Louise Upston passed a piece of legislation so fast, under urgency, in just two days last year that no one had time to spot the fact the law contained a mistake.

What happened was that the law required MSD, the ministry, to check with people every year that they were still entitled to the money they were receiving. However, it didn't exclude pensioners and veterans receiving the Winter Energy Payment, which they get simply because they are pensioners and veterans.

Of course, they should have been excluded under those circumstances because, once you're a pensioner, you're a pensioner. You're not going to stop being a pensioner; you'll be a pensioner until you die. Once you're a veteran, you're a veteran until you die. It doesn't change.

So they should have been exempt from this law but they weren't because it went through the parliamentary process too quickly.

This actually happens quite a lot. A few years ago, under urgency, Parliament realised that it had tabled and voted through the wrong piece of legislation because proceedings were moving so fast.

It happens all the time.

This Government has used urgency a lot. Jacinda Ardern's Government used urgency a lot as well. They often do it because they're running out of time but sometimes it's because they want to avoid too much attention being focused on what they're doing for an extended period.

That's why, for example, National tabled and rushed through the Pay Equity Bill. They didn't want all the drama that would have come with people focusing on it for a long time.

But they've been warned that, if they do this, the consequence of rushing legislation through is that mistakes may go unnoticed and therefore never get fixed.

In this case, it's been particularly unfortunate because it has affected some of the most hard-up people in the country at the worst time of year: people relying on the pension and trying to heat their homes during winter.

That is a really hard lesson for political parties on why they should not rush laws.

LISTEN ABOVE

Now, just for the avoidance of doubt, let me tell you what happened here with this mistake that led to 30,000 people missing out on Winter Energy Payments and benefits.
It happened because Louise Upston passed a piece of legislation so fast, under urgency, in just two days last year that no one had time to spot the fact the law contained a mistake.
What happened was that the law required MSD, the ministry, to check with people every year that they were still entitled to the money they were receiving. However, it didn't exclude pensioners and veterans receiving the Winter Energy Payment, which they get simply because they are pensioners and veterans.
Of course, they should have been excluded under those circumstances because, once you're a pensioner, you're a pensioner. You're not going to stop being a pensioner; you'll be a pensioner until you die. Once you're a veteran, you're a veteran until you die. It doesn't change.
So they should have been exempt from this law but they weren't because it went through the parliamentary process too quickly.
This actually happens quite a lot. A few years ago, under urgency, Parliament realised that it had tabled and voted through the wrong piece of legislation because proceedings were moving so fast.
It happens all the time.
This Government has used urgency a lot. Jacinda Ardern's Government used urgency a lot as well. They often do it because they're running out of time but sometimes it's because they want to avoid too much attention being focused on what they're doing for an extended period.
That's why, for example, National tabled and rushed through the Pay Equity Bill. They didn't want all the drama that would have come with people focusing on it for a long time.
But they've been warned that, if they do this, the consequence of rushing legislation through is that mistakes may go unnoticed and therefore never get fixed.
In this case, it's been particularly unfortunate because it has affected some of the most hard-up people in the country at the worst time of year: people relying on the pension and trying to heat their homes during winter.
That is a really hard lesson for political parties on why they should not rush laws.
LISTEN ABOVE

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: Here's why political parties shouldn't rush laws

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/b80ff01d-0e85-4c9a-bcf7-b4c4003a13ca/transcript

On the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive with Andrew Dickens Full Show Podcast for Friday, 11 September, 2026, Immigration Minister Erica Stanford takes a swipe at Winston Peters as campaigning heats up.

We hear about what it'll take to save Orana Wildlife Park in Christchurch.

A powerful voice in the "front row club", Sean Fitzpatrick, gives us his view on Codie Taylor's reinstatement as All Blacks hooker and captain.

And on The Sports Huddle, Andrew Gourdie and Nathan Limm on whether the Wahs are on the up and up.

Get the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast every weekday evening on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.

LISTEN ABOVE

On the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive with Andrew Dickens Full Show Podcast for Friday, 11 September, 2026, Immigration Minister Erica Stanford takes a swipe at Winston Peters as campaigning heats up.
We hear about what it'll take to save Orana Wildlife Park in Christchurch.
A powerful voice in the "front row club", Sean Fitzpatrick, gives us his view on Codie Taylor's reinstatement as All Blacks hooker and captain.
And on The Sports Huddle, Andrew Gourdie and Nathan Limm on whether the Wahs are on the up and up.
Get the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast every weekday evening on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.
LISTEN ABOVE

Full Show Podcast: 11 September 2026 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/7f0a209e-f72a-44ea-8631-b4c20076b595/transcript

The All Blacks will face off against the Springboks in their fourth test on Sunday, September 13, at 9am with the hopes of bringing the score to 2-2. 

"It'd be nice to be able to draw the series, which will be a lot better feeling," Former All Blacks hooker and captain Sean Fitzpatrick told Andrew Dickens.

LISTEN ABOVE 

The All Blacks will face off against the Springboks in their fourth test on Sunday, September 13, at 9am with the hopes of bringing the score to 2-2.&nbsp;
"It'd be nice to be able to draw the series, which will be a lot better feeling," Former All Blacks hooker and captain Sean Fitzpatrick told Andrew Dickens.
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Sean Fitzpatrick: Former All Blacks captain on 4th test against Springboks

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/4ae5ca41-7c0f-47a5-9cab-b4c2007584d7/transcript

Stephen Toplis: BNZ head of research predicts unemployment will rise above 5.5 percent by 2024

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