Shane solely from Harbor Asset Management is with me, Shane. Good evening. We're going to look at the markets, Shane. But first Trump and the tariffs. We don't have the details yet, but we've got an outline of some steel and aluminium tariffs from the White House.

Shane solely from Harbor Asset Management is with me, Shane. Good evening. We're going to look at the markets, Shane. But first Trump and the tariffs. We don't have the details yet, but we've got an outline of some steel and aluminium tariffs from the White House.

Yeah, he's back riling up market. It's getting us excited. Over the weekend, He's had dropped a few interesting announcements. He's talking about more reciprocal tariffs against people that pushed back and his tariffs he's announced going to announced apparently tomorrow twenty five percent tariff on steel and aluminium. And he's also talking about having other cracad Our friends in Canada and potentially a Mexico. So that's that's got people a little bit excited.

Yeah, he's back riling up market. It's getting us excited. Over the weekend, He's had dropped a few interesting announcements. He's talking about more reciprocal tariffs against people that pushed back and his tariffs he's announced going to announced apparently tomorrow twenty five percent tariff on steel and aluminium. And he's also talking about having other cracad Our friends in Canada and potentially a Mexico. So that's that's got people a little bit excited.

Yeah, how the market's reacting here?

Yeah, how the market's reacting here?

Look, US market was a bit soft on Friday night. There was some strong data that suggested the US fit A Reserve is not going to be cutting rates in a hurry, but there was a little bit of an anticipation of these reciprocal tariffs. So we did see the US long term bond years up, the US dollar up, and the US sheer market down. Locally, though, today. You know, what we've seen is the US dollar New Zealand dollar cross rate to fifty six and a half cents aluminium. You know, we do explot a little bit of eliminium to the States, about two percent of New Zealand's exports, so not a big ee, but you know there is potential that that global ramifications disruption and our market here in New Zealand slightly down today Official Pike or again leading things down a little bit. It is fifteen percent of the market. Plat more more than fifteen percent. It was down zero point four percent on the basis that these Mexican tariffs are back on the list of things to talk about.

Look, US market was a bit soft on Friday night. There was some strong data that suggested the US fit A Reserve is not going to be cutting rates in a hurry, but there was a little bit of an anticipation of these reciprocal tariffs. So we did see the US long term bond years up, the US dollar up, and the US sheer market down. Locally, though, today. You know, what we've seen is the US dollar New Zealand dollar cross rate to fifty six and a half cents aluminium. You know, we do explot a little bit of eliminium to the States, about two percent of New Zealand's exports, so not a big ee, but you know there is potential that that global ramifications disruption and our market here in New Zealand slightly down today Official Pike or again leading things down a little bit. It is fifteen percent of the market. Plat more more than fifteen percent. It was down zero point four percent on the basis that these Mexican tariffs are back on the list of things to talk about.

Certainly sounds like it, doesn't it. We know retail set a hard time, but jab High five just reported a very strong performance.

Certainly sounds like it, doesn't it. We know retail set a hard time, but jab High five just reported a very strong performance.

Yeah, interesting one, right, and so that you came out and they were their numbers for this particularly for January, this saying their sales growth up twenty percent for January, which is ten percent higher than expected. And I think this is sort of people trying to say this is an indication the New Zealand economy is showing a sign of bottoming. And we saw companies like at you're building and spark New zeal which is the old telecom muson have a little bit of a pop on the back of that that people thought New Zion was bouncing. The question we'd raise is, you know, is it New Zealand consumers spending more or is it jbi fi just taking share off other retailers. You know, technology is sort of thing people want to put their marginal money into. So it's a tough one to make a quarter stage.

Yeah, interesting one, right, and so that you came out and they were their numbers for this particularly for January, this saying their sales growth up twenty percent for January, which is ten percent higher than expected. And I think this is sort of people trying to say this is an indication the New Zealand economy is showing a sign of bottoming. And we saw companies like at you're building and spark New zeal which is the old telecom muson have a little bit of a pop on the back of that that people thought New Zion was bouncing. The question we'd raise is, you know, is it New Zealand consumers spending more or is it jbi fi just taking share off other retailers. You know, technology is sort of thing people want to put their marginal money into. So it's a tough one to make a quarter stage.

Plus, they had some great sales over summer.

Plus, they had some great sales over summer.

You did, you did?

You did, you did?

Hey, The bean z ed Economics team was out today calling for the rbn Z to cut the official cash rate half percent next week. How does that compare with what the market is pricing in?

Hey, The bean z ed Economics team was out today calling for the rbn Z to cut the official cash rate half percent next week. How does that compare with what the market is pricing in?

Yeah? Look really good, point Ryan. The So they've come out, the beans ad team pretty well regarded. They've come out and said ian due to cut, should cut rates by half a percent next week. They've got their minatory policy statement, it's a quarterly announcement and that would take it to three point seventy five percent. And the Benz team have gon a little bit further and said, look, we expect more rates to be signaled at that time and a bit of a quicker pace and perhaps what was talking about in November, which is our last monetary policy statement, and they're saying we could actually see their ficial cash wrap back to three percent. When we look at what capital markets are saying, definitely there's zero point five or half a percent cut that's been sort of factored in. The markets agree the economy is weak enough and inflation is low enough to support lower rates. But we will see markets react to the tone the words around the cut if indeed there is a cut, of course, but yeah, there is still a little way to go, but the directions pretty much down.

Yeah? Look really good, point Ryan. The So they've come out, the beans ad team pretty well regarded. They've come out and said ian due to cut, should cut rates by half a percent next week. They've got their minatory policy statement, it's a quarterly announcement and that would take it to three point seventy five percent. And the Benz team have gon a little bit further and said, look, we expect more rates to be signaled at that time and a bit of a quicker pace and perhaps what was talking about in November, which is our last monetary policy statement, and they're saying we could actually see their ficial cash wrap back to three percent. When we look at what capital markets are saying, definitely there's zero point five or half a percent cut that's been sort of factored in. The markets agree the economy is weak enough and inflation is low enough to support lower rates. But we will see markets react to the tone the words around the cut if indeed there is a cut, of course, but yeah, there is still a little way to go, but the directions pretty much down.

Yep, Shane, thank you for that interesting stuff. Shane solely harbor Asset Managements on a Monday evening.

Yep, Shane, thank you for that interesting stuff. Shane solely harbor Asset Managements on a Monday evening.

For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.

For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive, listen live to news talks it'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.