Trump's tariffs are coming tomorrow - and he's basically playing God with the global economy.

I've found the stuff we should know:

The presser is 4pm Eastern time in the Rose Garden at the White House. That's 9am NZT. The reason it's late over there is because they want markets closed when he announces it. This is big league stuff.

This guy has the power to make or break countries, markets and entire industries.

Here's some stats:

Goldman Sachs' odds on a US recession are up from 20 percent to 35 percent.

Moody’s reckons it could cost 5.5 million jobs - that would lift the unemployment rate from 4 percent to 7 percent. GDP would fall 1.7 percent from peak to trough.

For context, that's the equivalent of 2/3rds of the growth our economy is expecting this year.

Reciprocal tariffs are broad-based tariffs across all countries. The White House has been tight-lipped on carve-outs or exemptions, but some countries are hammering the phones begging for them.

They're panicked on Downing Street - though Starmer says he's staying calm and they're working the phones. Talk of getting an economic deal has turned into just that - they now say they're likely to be hit like everyone else.

India - they've been on the phones. They're notorious for trade protectionism, so it's a bit rich from them but their share market's been feeling the heat.

Vonderlayen's readying the war chest. The EU will fight back. Britain won't. Neither will Vietnam. Neither will New Zealand.

Luxon's message today was keep calm and carry on.

Agriculture, as we've been talking about since the minute Trump tweeted about it, is on the cards. The US overtook the Aussies this year as out second largest export market for goods, thanks to red meat.

That could hurt. But applied equally to Argentinian and Aussie beef, perhaps not so much.

It all depends on the number. 10 percent is fine. 25 percent is a bigger problem.

The real threat is the word's biggest economy going into recession - and the flow-on effects.

The smart money's already been piling into gold and European stocks.

Tomorrow we find out what 'America First' really means for the rest of us.

LISTEN ABOVE

Trump's tariffs are coming tomorrow - and he's basically playing God with the global economy.
I've found the stuff we should know:
The presser is 4pm Eastern time in the Rose Garden at the White House.&nbsp;That's 9am NZT. The reason it's late over there is because they want markets closed when he announces it.&nbsp;This is big league stuff.
This guy has the power to make or break countries, markets and entire industries.
Here's some stats:
Goldman Sachs' odds on a US recession are up from 20 percent to 35 percent.
Moody’s reckons it could cost 5.5 million jobs - that would lift the unemployment rate from 4 percent to 7 percent. GDP would fall 1.7 percent from peak to trough.
For context, that's the equivalent of 2/3rds of the growth our economy is expecting this year.
Reciprocal tariffs are broad-based tariffs across all countries.&nbsp;The White House has been tight-lipped on carve-outs or exemptions, but some countries are hammering the phones begging for them.
They're panicked on Downing Street - though Starmer says he's staying calm and they're working the phones. Talk of getting an economic deal has turned into just that - they now say they're likely to be hit like everyone else.
India - they've been on the phones. They're notorious for trade protectionism, so it's a bit rich from them but their share market's been feeling the heat.
Vonderlayen's readying the war chest. The EU will fight back. Britain won't. Neither will Vietnam. Neither will New Zealand.
Luxon's message today was keep calm and carry on.
Agriculture, as we've been talking about since the minute Trump tweeted about it, is on the cards. The US overtook the Aussies this year as out second largest export market for goods, thanks to red meat.
That could hurt. But applied equally to Argentinian and Aussie beef, perhaps not so much.
It all depends on the number. 10 percent is fine. 25 percent is a bigger problem.
The real threat is the word's biggest economy going into recession - and the flow-on effects.
The smart money's already been piling into gold and European stocks.
Tomorrow we find out what 'America First' really means for the rest of us.
LISTEN ABOVE

With a straight down the middle approach, Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive on Newstalk ZB delivers the very latest news and views to New Zealanders as they wrap up their day.

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive

Perspective with Ryan Bridge: We'll soon find out what 'America First' means for NZ

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/a0e6cfe9-83e5-4f17-8019-b2b300649abc/transcript