I am no defender of what Michael Laws has said, and I made it pretty clear that I think what he said was quite weird and gross.

But I would also find it really weird and over the top if it turns out that New Zealand First fires him as an MP for this.

I mean, that does seem to be a possibility here, right?

It's possible that Winston is just stalling for time. He's saying there's going to be a board meeting and so on, but nothing is being done before the election. Then, once the election is out of the way and all the high drama has died down, nothing will happen.

But it's also possible that Michael Laws is gone because Winston has said it is a live issue whether he remains a potential MP. Winston is clearly, as he put it, "mad to beat the band", or words to that effect.

It is weird because this is a party that has made a virtue of being controversial. They have racked up plenty of controversial comments in the past year alone, not least from their own leader, who told Lawrence Xu-Nan of the Green Party to "go home to China".

Now, there is only one other occasion where a New Zealand First MP has been immediately punished for saying something a bit naughty and that was Stuart Nash over the maternity leave comments.

What do these two incidents have in common? What Stuart Nash said and what Michael Laws has said?

Women.

The thing they have in common is women. And this is probably why New Zealand First is reacting the way it is.

Women are a problem, as I've told you before, for the coalition. All three coalition parties have lost the women's vote in a big way to Labour and the Greens, and probably to the Opportunity Party as well.

Maybe it's because of the pay equity issue. Maybe it's because women are often the ones managing household budgets and they know just how tough things are out there.

But the coalition, frankly, cannot afford to lose more women because women make decisions.

And if women are annoyed about something Michael Laws has said, they will go home to their husbands or partners and let them know exactly what they think about it.

So I think that is why Michael Laws is, at least in a performative sense, in trouble.

Whether it actually turns into a firing, well, we'll have to wait and see.

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