I guess what we're all wanting to know is what is going to happen? Who's going to win the election?

I've heard so many other commentators say the same thing: one month out, one week out and now one day out, I can't tell you what's going to happen. I can only give you my best guess and this is it.

The centre-right bloc should win. Should, right? Not will. Should, as in their chances are better than the left's.

The centre-right bloc should win because they have the numbers, especially if they have Opportunity. But the left, even with Opportunity, on most polls does not have the numbers. The best they can do is get themselves into a dead heat with the right.

Now, of course, my prediction that the centre-right wins relies on Opportunity choosing the right, which I think they will do if they want to prove they're actually a centrist party and not just another left-wing party.

But that is the first variable that makes this election hard to call: Opportunity.

The other variable is the overhang.

I reckon there's a chance the overhangs actually end up cancelling each other out. Maybe National gets four and Te Pāti Māori gets four, and because they're the same, they balance each other out. No one actually gets an advantage because of the overhang.

That's your second variable and it's what makes this election too hard to call.

But whatever happens, I think there's a really strong chance we won't know the result this weekend. We could be in exactly the same position on Monday, asking: Well, what's going to happen?

If Opportunity is really close to 5%, we're probably going to have to wait for the special votes to be sure whether they're in or not.

And if the overhang seats are really close, and I'm thinking of Tāmaki Makaurau last election, where there was a margin of only four votes, then if that happens in any of those potentially numerous overhang seats, we're going to have to wait for a recount. And that can take weeks in some cases.

National will reflect in the next few weeks on a widely criticised campaign.

ACT should be proud of peaking at the right time and running a quietly confident campaign.

New Zealand First's campaign has flagged. They got dragged down at the last minute by a candidate they should have known would cause trouble.

The Greens ran a great campaign and even escaped any damage from the gangs fiasco.

Labour did all right in the end because Chippy did all right in the end. He seems to have found his sparkle again.

Opportunity has survived above 5% and proved that a leader who is actually good in the media is an asset whose value shouldn't be underestimated.

They've done almost all they can.

The campaign is almost over.

Just a few more hours to go.

LISTEN ABOVE

I guess what we're all wanting to know is what is going to happen? Who's going to win the election?
I've heard so many other commentators say the same thing: one month out, one week out and now one day out, I can't tell you what's going to happen. I can only give you my best guess and this is it.
The centre-right bloc should win. Should, right? Not will. Should, as in their chances are better than the left's.
The centre-right bloc should win because they have the numbers, especially if they have Opportunity. But the left, even with Opportunity, on most polls does not have the numbers. The best they can do is get themselves into a dead heat with the right.
Now, of course, my prediction that the centre-right wins relies on Opportunity choosing the right, which I think they will do if they want to prove they're actually a centrist party and not just another left-wing party.
But that is the first variable that makes this election hard to call: Opportunity.
The other variable is the overhang.
I reckon there's a chance the overhangs actually end up cancelling each other out. Maybe National gets four and Te Pāti Māori gets four, and because they're the same, they balance each other out. No one actually gets an advantage because of the overhang.
That's your second variable and it's what makes this election too hard to call.
But whatever happens, I think there's a really strong chance we won't know the result this weekend. We could be in exactly the same position on Monday, asking: Well, what's going to happen?
If Opportunity is really close to 5%, we're probably going to have to wait for the special votes to be sure whether they're in or not.
And if the overhang seats are really close, and I'm thinking of Tāmaki Makaurau last election, where there was a margin of only four votes, then if that happens in any of those potentially numerous overhang seats, we're going to have to wait for a recount. And that can take weeks in some cases.
National will reflect in the next few weeks on a widely criticised campaign.
ACT should be proud of peaking at the right time and running a quietly confident campaign.
New Zealand First's campaign has flagged. They got dragged down at the last minute by a candidate they should have known would cause trouble.
The Greens ran a great campaign and even escaped any damage from the gangs fiasco.
Labour did all right in the end because Chippy did all right in the end. He seems to have found his sparkle again.
Opportunity has survived above 5% and proved that a leader who is actually good in the media is an asset whose value shouldn't be underestimated.
They've done almost all they can.
The campaign is almost over.
Just a few more hours to go.
LISTEN ABOVE

With a straight down the middle approach, Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive on Newstalk ZB delivers the very latest news and views to New Zealanders as they wrap up their day.

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: What is going to happen with this election?

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/c739d865-3496-47a1-a469-b4fa0064f07d/transcript