On the face of it, the unemployment figure out today is not good. It’s gone up, it's now sitting at 5.4 percent, a high we haven’t seen in almost 11 years. The last time we were anywhere near 5.4 percent was September 2015.

But actually, there is a recovery story here if you look under the hood.

We’ve added 15,000 jobs to the economy. More people want to work, too. As Infometrics points out, fewer people are sitting on the sidelines. We have fewer young people bumming around, and more of them are in work, training, or education.

Most of the people who found work in the last quarter are in part‑time jobs, which suggests employers are taking a cautious chance. They’re not totally convinced the recovery is locked in - not enough to offer full‑time roles - but they’re confident enough to dip their toes back in.

Now, I don’t want to be Pollyannaish here, pretending things are fine when they’re not. I don’t want to oversell good news. But I do think it’s worth focusing on the positive signs in these numbers to give this recovery a chance.

There is enough data out there now to suggest we are on the right side of things and that the recovery is happening. But there’s still a wobble, isn’t there? You talk to some businesses and they’re still unimpressed by what they’re seeing come through the door.

And I just wonder if we’re holding off a little. Maybe we were spooked by the false dawn in 2025 and want to make sure this is actually the recovery we think it is.

Maybe we’re still unsure what the Reserve Bank is going to do. Maybe we want to get the feel of Anna Breman in her first go in a couple of weeks before we start investing money.

We have good signs: consumer confidence, business confidence, GDP growth, retail spending growth, improved manufacturing numbers - the list goes on.

And now add this: the detail under the unemployment number. Put that on the list, step back, and assess what really does look like a recovery, if we just give it the chance.

LISTEN ABOVE

On the face of it, the unemployment figure out today is not good. It’s gone up, it's now sitting at 5.4 percent, a high we haven’t seen in almost 11 years. The last time we were anywhere near 5.4 percent was September 2015.
But actually, there is a recovery story here if you look under the hood.
We’ve added 15,000 jobs to the economy. More people want to work, too. As Infometrics points out, fewer people are sitting on the sidelines. We have fewer young people bumming around, and more of them are in work, training, or education.
Most of the people who found work in the last quarter are in part‑time jobs, which suggests employers are taking a cautious chance. They’re not totally convinced the recovery is locked in - not enough to offer full‑time roles - but they’re confident enough to dip their toes back in.
Now, I don’t want to be Pollyannaish here, pretending things are fine when they’re not. I don’t want to oversell good news. But I do think it’s worth focusing on the positive signs in these numbers to give this recovery a chance.
There is enough data out there now to suggest we are on the right side of things and that the recovery is happening. But there’s still a wobble, isn’t there? You talk to some businesses and they’re still unimpressed by what they’re seeing come through the door.
And I just wonder if we’re holding off a little.&nbsp;Maybe we were spooked by the false dawn in 2025 and want to make sure this is actually the recovery we think it is.
Maybe we’re still unsure what the Reserve Bank is going to do.&nbsp;Maybe we want to get the feel of Anna Breman in her first go in a couple of weeks before we start investing money.
We have good signs: consumer confidence, business confidence, GDP growth, retail spending growth, improved manufacturing numbers - the list goes on.
And now add this: the detail under the unemployment number. Put that on the list, step back, and assess what really does look like a recovery, if we just give it the chance.
LISTEN ABOVE

With a straight down the middle approach, Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive on Newstalk ZB delivers the very latest news and views to New Zealanders as they wrap up their day.

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: There's a recovery story in today's unemployment figures

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/07b8bf56-3d17-4993-a976-b3e70065a4bc/transcript