House prices have been falling, but the tide may turn soon enough.

HSBC predicts house prices will rise again by 5 percent in 2024, with a strong rebound in migration supporting demand.

Chief Economist Paul Bloxham says the increased number of migrants will drive prices up again, as this has already happened in Australia.

"Now you're seeing really strong inward migration and we think that will start to lift house prices. It's certainly what's happened here in Australia already."

LISTEN ABOVE

House prices have been falling, but the tide may turn soon enough.
HSBC predicts house prices will rise again by 5 percent in 2024, with a strong rebound in migration supporting demand.
Chief Economist Paul Bloxham says the increased number of migrants will drive prices up again, as this has already happened in Australia.
"Now you're seeing really strong inward migration and we think that will start to lift house prices. It's certainly what's happened here in Australia already."
LISTEN ABOVE

With a straight down the middle approach, Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive on Newstalk ZB delivers the very latest news and views to New Zealanders as they wrap up their day.

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive

Paul Bloxham: HSBC Chief Economist predicts house prices will rise due to increased migration

The Official Cash Rate has gone up by 25 basis points. This is the first rise we've seen in three years.

It was unanimous around the committee table that it needed to happen because of inflation. Even though petrol and diesel prices have fallen sharply since the Iran war ceasefire deal was struck, they're not back to pre-war levels yet and they won't be for some time. That, of course, is inflationary.

You know what struck me, though? Even though this is the first hike in the Official Cash Rate in three years and even though there wasn't consensus among high-profile economists that this should happen - I mean, plenty of them were calling very strongly for it to be held for the sake of the economy - there isn't nearly as much angst around this as there was around any of the decisions Adrian Orr made.

Even when they were decisions we wanted, we still got angsty because they were either too late, too early or whatever.

Instead, the news conference was boring. So boring, in fact, that it was refreshing.

Anna Breman slowly talked us through the decision with a slideshow. She let Paul, on one side of her, pipe up occasionally. Karen, on the other side, was also allowed to chip in. She took questions from journalists on video link. She explained really basic economic concepts to them.

The impression you got the whole way through was that Anna Breman is in control.

Because we knew this. This was not a surprise. We knew it was coming. It was very well signalled. Seventy percent of economists were expecting it. The market had priced it in. The NZIER Shadow Board was picking it. There was, as I say, consensus around the committee table.

It gives the impression that she's not the victim of a knee-jerk reaction but is instead being quite deliberate in the path she's taken.

You could argue that her job right now is every bit as hard as Adrian Orr's was, at least towards the end of his tenure. Because this Iran stuff is really mucking around with forecasts, isn't it?

That news conference was so boring - and so angst-free - that it gives me some hope.

The further we get away from COVID, and from the characters who were around during COVID, the more things might return to their boring averages. Maybe we'll get on with each other and get on with the jobs we're supposed to do a lot better.

LISTEN ABOVE

The Official Cash Rate has gone up by 25 basis points. This is the first rise we've seen in three years.
It was unanimous around the committee table that it needed to happen because of inflation. Even though petrol and diesel prices have fallen sharply since the Iran war ceasefire deal was struck, they're not back to pre-war levels yet and they won't be for some time. That, of course, is inflationary.
You know what struck me, though? Even though this is the first hike in the Official Cash Rate in three years and even though there wasn't consensus among high-profile economists that this should happen - I mean, plenty of them were calling very strongly for it to be held for the sake of the economy - there isn't nearly as much angst around this as there was around any of the decisions Adrian Orr made.
Even when they were decisions we wanted, we still got angsty because they were either too late, too early or whatever.
Instead, the news conference was boring. So boring, in fact, that it was refreshing.
Anna Breman slowly talked us through the decision with a slideshow. She let Paul, on one side of her, pipe up occasionally. Karen, on the other side, was also allowed to chip in. She took questions from journalists on video link. She explained really basic economic concepts to them.
The impression you got the whole way through was that Anna Breman is in control.
Because we knew this. This was not a surprise. We knew it was coming. It was very well signalled. Seventy percent of economists were expecting it. The market had priced it in. The NZIER Shadow Board was picking it. There was, as I say, consensus around the committee table.
It gives the impression that she's not the victim of a knee-jerk reaction but is instead being quite deliberate in the path she's taken.
You could argue that her job right now is every bit as hard as Adrian Orr's was, at least towards the end of his tenure. Because this Iran stuff is really mucking around with forecasts, isn't it?
That news conference was so boring - and so angst-free - that it gives me some hope.
The further we get away from COVID, and from the characters who were around during COVID, the more things might return to their boring averages. Maybe we'll get on with each other and get on with the jobs we're supposed to do a lot better.
LISTEN ABOVE

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: Anna Breman delivered a refreshingly boring OCR update

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/b6faadf2-271d-406c-bbbd-b481006e69b2/transcript

The Glasgow 2026 Commonwealth Games are due to get under way in a couple of weeks, and the pressure's on for the Silver Ferns.

The team are in camp currently, and their first match against Scotland will mark 634 days since Dame Noeline Taurua's last match in charge after she was controversially stood down.

Taurua says getting back into coaching the side was like 'riding a horse' and she's 'amped' to get things going.

"There's just a really good vibe out there, so I believe we have selected well." 

LISTEN ABOVE

The Glasgow 2026 Commonwealth Games are due to get under way in a couple of weeks, and the pressure's on for the Silver Ferns.
The team are in camp currently, and their first match against Scotland will mark 634 days since Dame Noeline Taurua's last match in charge after she was controversially stood down.
Taurua says getting back into coaching the side was like 'riding a horse' and she's 'amped' to get things going.
"There's just a really good vibe out there, so I believe we have selected well."&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE

Dame Noeline Taurua: Silver Ferns coach speaks ahead of the team's first Commonwealth Games match

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/575c04fc-e168-4e7d-bf21-b481006c7cee/transcript

Blueberry growers have voiced concerns over the prospect of New Zealand relaxing its food import rules following an E.coli outbreak in the US.

The outbreak has been linked to a shipment of frozen berries in Chile.

The growers fear that MPI changes to berry imports could also bring new pests or diseases onto New Zealand shores.

One grower, Dan Peach, says MPI hasn't considered the risks involved in making these changes.

"It's not a question of if it's going to happen, it's a matter of when - and how much is tolerable. And that's where risk-based assessments need to be looked at, on a case-by-case basis." 

LISTEN ABOVE

Blueberry growers have voiced concerns over the prospect of New Zealand relaxing its food import rules following an E.coli outbreak in the US.
The outbreak has been linked to a shipment of frozen berries in Chile.
The growers fear that MPI changes to berry imports could also bring new pests or diseases onto New Zealand shores.
One grower, Dan Peach, says MPI hasn't considered the risks involved in making these changes.
"It's not a question of if it's going to happen, it's a matter of when - and how much is tolerable. And that's where risk-based assessments need to be looked at, on a case-by-case basis."&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE

Dan Peach: blueberry grower on why the US E.coli outbreak proves NZ shouldn't relax restrictions

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/f431c828-ea51-4b53-801d-b4810069c91b/transcript

Paul Bloxham: HSBC Chief Economist predicts house prices will rise due to increased migration

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