Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell says it's getting harder to know how much the economy's growing or shrinking.

Stats NZ estimates GDP rose 0.2 percent in the December quarter, below most forecasts.

But Reddell says it's also revised the figures for previous quarters.

He says the 0.2 for December could still potentially be revised up as high as 0.5 percent, or as low as minus 0.1.

LISTEN ABOVE

Former Reserve Bank economist Michael Reddell says it's getting harder to know how much the economy's growing or shrinking.
Stats NZ estimates GDP rose 0.2 percent in the December quarter, below most forecasts.
But Reddell says it's also revised the figures for previous quarters.
He says the 0.2 for December could still potentially be revised up as high as 0.5 percent, or as low as minus 0.1.
LISTEN ABOVE

With a straight down the middle approach, Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive on Newstalk ZB delivers the very latest news and views to New Zealanders as they wrap up their day.

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive

Michael Reddell: former Reserve Bank economist on the state of the economy following recent GDP figures

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/1815e428-d9ae-49f5-b1cb-b412004d5703/transcript

I’m sorry to say it’s a bit of a bad day - a day of rather unpleasant economic news, I’m afraid.

Let’s start with the GDP number. It came in at 0.2 percent for the final quarter of last year, which is very much at the low end of expectations. We were looking for something in the range of 0.2 percent to 0.5 percent, with 0.5 percent being the Reserve Bank’s forecast.

The problem with that is those were the good times. That number was recorded before the Iran war kicked off, so it’s not much of a place to be starting from, is it?

Now the good news is that at least we are recovering. Yes, it’s slow - it’s grinding - which we always knew it would be but it is real. We recorded 1.3 percent growth for the year. That’s not a lot, but it is growth and it marks the first time in more than two years that the economy has posted annual growth.

Because the GDP result is at the low end, it also gives the Reserve Bank a bit more latitude when it comes to its OCR decision. It can look through the inflation spike that the Iran war will almost certainly cause, which means it doesn’t need to be in such a hurry to raise the Official Cash Rate in response.

The second piece of bad news today is that the war has escalated. Israel has struck Iran’s oil fields, pushing the price of oil past US$110 a barrel.

It’s noticeable that the Government’s tone has shifted on fuel supply. In an update, officials sounded far less relaxed about fuel availability into the medium term - around eight weeks out - than they did earlier in the week.

There is, again, a small piece of good news here. We are largely reliant on South Korea and Singapore for our oil and they are still supplying their customers. Australia, by contrast, is much more reliant on China - and China has banned exports.

So, if we’re looking for a bright side: our supply situation looks better than some and at least we are growing. That gives us some reason not to panic on a day of not-so-great economic news.

LISTEN ABOVE

I’m sorry to say it’s a bit of a bad day - a day of rather unpleasant economic news, I’m afraid.
Let’s start with the GDP number. It came in at 0.2 percent for the final quarter of last year, which is very much at the low end of expectations. We were looking for something in the range of 0.2 percent to 0.5 percent, with 0.5 percent being the Reserve Bank’s forecast.
The problem with that is those were the good times. That number was recorded before the Iran war kicked off, so it’s not much of a place to be starting from, is it?
Now the good news is that at least we are recovering. Yes, it’s slow - it’s grinding - which we always knew it would be but it is real. We recorded 1.3 percent growth for the year. That’s not a lot, but it is growth and it marks the first time in more than two years that the economy has posted annual growth.
Because the GDP result is at the low end, it also gives the Reserve Bank a bit more latitude when it comes to its OCR decision. It can look through the inflation spike that the Iran war will almost certainly cause, which means it doesn’t need to be in such a hurry to raise the Official Cash Rate in response.
The second piece of bad news today is that the war has escalated. Israel has struck Iran’s oil fields, pushing the price of oil past US$110 a barrel.
It’s noticeable that the Government’s tone has shifted on fuel supply. In an update, officials sounded far less relaxed about fuel availability into the medium term - around eight weeks out - than they did earlier in the week.
There is, again, a small piece of good news here. We are largely reliant on South Korea and Singapore for our oil and they are still supplying their customers. Australia, by contrast, is much more reliant on China - and China has banned exports.
So, if we’re looking for a bright side: our supply situation looks better than some and at least we are growing. That gives us some reason not to panic on a day of not-so-great economic news.
LISTEN ABOVE

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: Is there a bright side to all the bad economic news?

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/f1aa4d8e-7324-4d0b-9fc2-b4120067213a/transcript

Novo Nordisk, the Danish drugmaker behind famed weight-loss drugs Wegovy and Ozempic, is leading the way in the semaglutide trend. 

The drugs help people lose weight, but they've also proven to be helpful in reducing health conditions like heart disease and kidney disease.

CEO Mike Doustdar says more people are starting to recognise that Novo Nordisk's output goes beyond an agent that reduces sugar for diabetics. 

"It has some very serious health benefits around it, be it cardiovascular protection, liver protection, kidney protection - and more to be tested. So it's a breakthrough innovation." 

LISTEN ABOVE

Novo Nordisk, the Danish drugmaker behind famed weight-loss drugs Wegovy and Ozempic, is leading the way in the semaglutide trend.&nbsp;
The drugs help people lose weight, but they've also proven to be helpful in reducing health conditions like heart disease and kidney disease.
CEO Mike Doustdar says more people are starting to recognise that Novo Nordisk's output goes beyond an agent that reduces sugar for diabetics.&nbsp;
"It has some very serious health benefits around it, be it cardiovascular protection, liver protection, kidney protection - and more to be tested. So it's a breakthrough innovation."&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE

Mike Doustdar: Novo Nordisk CEO on the company's developments in weight-loss drugs

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/d858d055-573e-4a0f-87f1-b4120062f628/transcript

Originair says it's already had to reduce flights between Westport and Wellington - and the route's now set to be axed by May.

The regional carrier stepped in when Sounds Air withdrew from the service in 2024.

Now, it says it's struggling with the small market and increasing operating costs.

Managing director Robert Inglis says it's cut the service back to three times a week - which went well over summer.

"But winter's another thing, and then, of course, the additional doubling of fuel price - we've just unfortunately had to make a hard call."

Originair has applied for Government funding to help it continue the service.

LISTEN ABOVE

Originair says it's already had to reduce flights between Westport and Wellington - and the route's now set to be axed by May.
The regional carrier stepped in when Sounds Air withdrew from the service in 2024.
Now, it says it's struggling with the small market and increasing operating costs.
Managing director Robert Inglis says it's cut the service back to three times a week - which went well over summer.
"But winter's another thing, and then, of course, the additional doubling of fuel price - we've just unfortunately had to make a hard call."
Originair has applied for Government funding to help it continue the service.
LISTEN ABOVE

Robert Inglis: Originair managing director on the carrier axing route between Westport and Wellington

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/f89fb053-434a-4a18-a987-b412005e3da7/transcript

Michael Reddell: former Reserve Bank economist on the state of the economy following recent GDP figures

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