Yeah, there's a lot of numbers there, and you can sort of pick and cheers a bit because the annual stats are going to keep looking pretty rough for a while because they're catching those that the peak of the brain drain last year. But what we can see is that if you look at I guess what we're talking about here is Kiwi citizens leaving long term, right, and so the Kiwi departures have sort of plateau. They're in the year to January twenty twenty five, they were forty four seven hundred, and that compares to sorry sorry, forty four thousand, two hundred compared to forty four thousand, seven hundred for the year to January twenty twenty four and then sort of what you can see is that in the year to August twenty twenty four was when they peaked, we had forty seven thousand, So nearly fifty thousand people left in that year to August, and so they're drifting back. Forty four thousand kiwis leaving is still a heck of a lot, you know. So there's no sense that we're saying that the brain drain is over or cured. But the peak is an important thing to get beyond because it possibly suggests that the trend has started moving in the right direction and that there's you know, perhaps less push for Kiwis to get out there, and so you know, hopefully that's part of the recovery story, right.

Yeah, there's a lot of numbers there, and you can sort of pick and cheers a bit because the annual stats are going to keep looking pretty rough for a while because they're catching those that the peak of the brain drain last year. But what we can see is that if you look at I guess what we're talking about here is Kiwi citizens leaving long term, right, and so the Kiwi departures have sort of plateau. They're in the year to January twenty twenty five, they were forty four seven hundred, and that compares to sorry sorry, forty four thousand, two hundred compared to forty four thousand, seven hundred for the year to January twenty twenty four and then sort of what you can see is that in the year to August twenty twenty four was when they peaked, we had forty seven thousand, So nearly fifty thousand people left in that year to August, and so they're drifting back. Forty four thousand kiwis leaving is still a heck of a lot, you know. So there's no sense that we're saying that the brain drain is over or cured. But the peak is an important thing to get beyond because it possibly suggests that the trend has started moving in the right direction and that there's you know, perhaps less push for Kiwis to get out there, and so you know, hopefully that's part of the recovery story, right.

Well hopefully. I was going to ask, does that mean that it's a sign that kiwis are saying where our prospects are looking better here? Or is it just that we've run out of mobile brains to actually you know, up and leave.

Well hopefully. I was going to ask, does that mean that it's a sign that kiwis are saying where our prospects are looking better here? Or is it just that we've run out of mobile brains to actually you know, up and leave.

Look, it's possible. Look, we don't the stats don't dig down into who exactly is leaving. We get a little bit of age based stuff, but that takes a while to come through. Yeah, it's and overall net migration is still still positive. So we're still gaining thirty two thousand, five hundred people I think in the year to January, but that's down from one hundred and something like one hundred and thirty two one hundred and fifty five thousand or something. You know, we had this enormous peak, and so just having that net migration gain of thirty two thousand is enough to sort of create a bit of a head when the economy is used to having a lot more people coming in. And I'm hearing economists talk about how that's one of the reasons that the housing market's just not picking up as fast as you might have expected with interest rates coming off, that we're sort of built in the last year or two for this high level of incoming migration or lower levels of people leaving, and you know, we're sort of feeling that now. But yeah, as I say, the trend possibly starting to turn, and let's hope, you know, if they can, if we can see the economy continue to improve, it usually is fairly related to the economy.

Look, it's possible. Look, we don't the stats don't dig down into who exactly is leaving. We get a little bit of age based stuff, but that takes a while to come through. Yeah, it's and overall net migration is still still positive. So we're still gaining thirty two thousand, five hundred people I think in the year to January, but that's down from one hundred and something like one hundred and thirty two one hundred and fifty five thousand or something. You know, we had this enormous peak, and so just having that net migration gain of thirty two thousand is enough to sort of create a bit of a head when the economy is used to having a lot more people coming in. And I'm hearing economists talk about how that's one of the reasons that the housing market's just not picking up as fast as you might have expected with interest rates coming off, that we're sort of built in the last year or two for this high level of incoming migration or lower levels of people leaving, and you know, we're sort of feeling that now. But yeah, as I say, the trend possibly starting to turn, and let's hope, you know, if they can, if we can see the economy continue to improve, it usually is fairly related to the economy.

Yeah, and because I noticed that IMF report yesterday, they said that it would be you know, our recovery this year would be in part lad by migration. I mean, are they taking into account the fact that, you know, net migration is relatively low compared to where we normally have it. Presumably they are.

Yeah, and because I noticed that IMF report yesterday, they said that it would be you know, our recovery this year would be in part lad by migration. I mean, are they taking into account the fact that, you know, net migration is relatively low compared to where we normally have it. Presumably they are.

Yeah, I mean I think they're talking. I mean, in the end, it's going to you know, you change a few settings at some point that the lower level of net migration will start to cause labor shortages and then inevitably a government tries to open things up again. We're really all sitting there waiting for the labor market to work through the worst of its you know, unemployment and get some jobs creating again. So that's not looking like it's happening till the second half of the year. But when that starts to happen, you'd expect to see migration pick up as well, a fewer people leaving because of his jobs. So so much of it's tied to jobs, and as we've talked about before, it's just taking it takes a bit longer. Once the first sort of economic stats start looking a bit better, it still takes a while for the labor market to turn around.

Yeah, I mean I think they're talking. I mean, in the end, it's going to you know, you change a few settings at some point that the lower level of net migration will start to cause labor shortages and then inevitably a government tries to open things up again. We're really all sitting there waiting for the labor market to work through the worst of its you know, unemployment and get some jobs creating again. So that's not looking like it's happening till the second half of the year. But when that starts to happen, you'd expect to see migration pick up as well, a fewer people leaving because of his jobs. So so much of it's tied to jobs, and as we've talked about before, it's just taking it takes a bit longer. Once the first sort of economic stats start looking a bit better, it still takes a while for the labor market to turn around.

Yep, nice one, Liam, thank you for that great information. Liam dan As always insied Herold business editsor at Large. For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, Listen live to news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio

Yep, nice one, Liam, thank you for that great information. Liam dan As always insied Herold business editsor at Large. For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drive, Listen live to news talks. It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio