An economist says there's a risk the Reserve Bank won't cut the OCR until next year.

It's kept the Official Cash Rate at 5.5 percent today, unchanged over a year with seven consecutive holds.

Kiwibank's, Jarrod Kerr says there is worry it won't be cut until February.

However, his bank's outlook remains the same.

"Our forecast has inflation dropping below 3 percent by the end of the year, and I think that could still push them to cutting in November. But the risk is clearly that it's sometime next year."

LISTEN ABOVE

An economist says there's a risk the Reserve Bank won't cut the OCR until next year.
It's kept the Official Cash Rate at 5.5 percent today, unchanged over a year with seven consecutive holds.
Kiwibank's, Jarrod Kerr says there is worry it won't be cut until February.
However, his bank's outlook remains the same.
"Our forecast has inflation dropping below 3 percent by the end of the year, and I think that could still push them to cutting in November. But the risk is clearly that it's sometime next year."
LISTEN ABOVE

With a straight down the middle approach, Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive on Newstalk ZB delivers the very latest news and views to New Zealanders as they wrap up their day.

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive

Jarrod Kerr: Kiwibank economist warns there's a risk the OCR won't be cut until 2025

The manufacturing sector has been hit hard over the past few years, but ongoing global conflict has worsened current market conditions.

Average profit margins have plunged to 31.53 percent, the lowest since records began in 2018.

This has resulted in more manufacturers clearing out their warehouses, with stock on hand dropping to historically low levels. 

Unleashed Head of Product Jarrod Adam says the challenges to the supply chain are being worsened by the Middle East conflict, and experts are unclear on what will happen next.

LISTEN ABOVE

The manufacturing sector has been hit hard over the past few years, but ongoing global conflict has worsened current market conditions.
Average profit margins have plunged to 31.53 percent, the lowest since records began in 2018.
This has resulted in more manufacturers clearing out their warehouses, with stock on hand dropping to historically low levels.&nbsp;
Unleashed Head of Product Jarrod Adam says the challenges to the supply chain are being worsened by the Middle East conflict, and experts are unclear on what will happen next.
LISTEN ABOVE

Jarrod Adam: Unleashed Head of Product on revenue for manufacturers dropping amid global conflict

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/acd784fe-df1d-4a55-b4fb-b448007f5aaa/transcript

Listen to the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 12 May.

Get the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast every weekday evening on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Listen to the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 12 May. 
Get the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast every weekday evening on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Full Show Podcast: 12 May 2026 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/668ca861-f030-4d5d-aa15-b4480076bf97/transcript

Now, I don’t know about you, but I’m taking this latest talk of a second Auckland Harbour crossing with a gigantic grain of salt.

The development today is that Chris Bishop has revealed the Government will announce its preferred option for a second crossing by mid-year - so I suppose you could say June-ish or July-ish - and they will decide between a tunnel or a bridge.

And while I really want to get excited about it, because Auckland needs this crossing and has been waiting decades for it, I cannot get excited.

That’s because I can see what’s going on here. It’s an election year and National is in danger of losing Auckland, which means potentially coming quite close in the election - as in, potentially losing it. Unlikely, but possible.

So the easiest way to win favour in Auckland is to promise something big and shiny, like a bridge.

Have we been here before? Yes, we have.

Do you remember Michael Wood’s boomer bike bridge to Birkenhead? Where are we with that? We spent $51 million-plus on consultants, and in the end it got ditched.

Now, I have a strong suspicion that whatever Chris Bishop announces mid-year will go exactly the same way because we cannot afford it. I want us to be able to afford it, because we need it, but Chris Bishop is already scaling back on the Roads of National Significance that he announced before the last election.

That’s because we don’t have the funding for those roads - because we haven’t increased the fuel excise tax in what will shortly be seven years.

So if we don’t have the funding for those roads, why would we have the funding for this bridge?

Now, unless there is committed funding and an absolutely rock-solid commitment from Labour to continue with the project if they were to win the election - or subsequent elections - I think we can see this for what it is: the cheapest and easiest pre-election trick to play on Aucklanders.

LISTEN ABOVE

Now, I don’t know about you, but I’m taking this latest talk of a second Auckland Harbour crossing with a gigantic grain of salt.
The development today is that Chris Bishop has revealed the Government will announce its preferred option for a second crossing by mid-year - so I suppose you could say June-ish or July-ish - and they will decide between a tunnel or a bridge.
And while I really want to get excited about it, because Auckland needs this crossing and has been waiting decades for it, I cannot get excited.
That’s because I can see what’s going on here. It’s an election year and National is in danger of losing Auckland, which means potentially coming quite close in the election - as in, potentially losing it. Unlikely, but possible.
So the easiest way to win favour in Auckland is to promise something big and shiny, like a bridge.
Have we been here before? Yes, we have.
Do you remember Michael Wood’s boomer bike bridge to Birkenhead? Where are we with that? We spent $51 million-plus on consultants, and in the end it got ditched.
Now, I have a strong suspicion that whatever Chris Bishop announces mid-year will go exactly the same way because we cannot afford it. I want us to be able to afford it, because we need it, but Chris Bishop is already scaling back on the Roads of National Significance that he announced before the last election.
That’s because we don’t have the funding for those roads - because we haven’t increased the fuel excise tax in what will shortly be seven years.
So if we don’t have the funding for those roads, why would we have the funding for this bridge?
Now, unless there is committed funding and an absolutely rock-solid commitment from Labour to continue with the project if they were to win the election - or subsequent elections - I think we can see this for what it is: the cheapest and easiest pre-election trick to play on Aucklanders.
LISTEN ABOVE

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: Take the Auckland Harbour crossing talk with a grain of salt

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/83ae1430-077b-4173-86d2-b4480079ac97/transcript

Jarrod Kerr: Kiwibank economist warns there's a risk the OCR won't be cut until 2025

In 1 playlist(s)

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive

Social links

Follow podcast

Recent clips