Do not fall into the trap of thinking these latest charges against Donald Trump, just because they’re the most serious yet, are going to change his fortunes in next year’s American election. 

He is still on track to become the Republican nominee for President.

In fact, if anything, we should assume right now that this is going to only make him more popular. Because if you look back, you will see that his popularity in the run up to this upcoming election didn't really take off until he was slapped with the first set of Stormy Daniels charges.

Back in February before he was charged, he and Ron DeSantis were virtually neck and neck in polling. Trump on 41 percent, DeSantis on 39 percent.

But then the Stormy Daniels charges landed in April and he was arrested- suddenly his popularity took off and he’s been in the lead ever since.

So if anything, charging him actually makes him more popular.

Who knows why? It could be that Republican voters really do believe that he is the subject of a witch-hunt and so charging him elicits sympathy.

It could just be that the charges give him publicity and he has a remarkable talent capitalising on any publicity, good or bad.

And take a look at the timeline ahead- this has the potential to play into his hands publicity wise even more. 

The E Jean Carroll defamation case goes to court on 15 Jan next year, the same day as the Iowa caucuses. The Stormy Daniels trial starts March 25, and he has to attend that. And then the classified files trial starts May 20 and he has to attend that.

Those dates are just weeks before the Republican Convention, where the party will pick their nominee on 15 July. And just months before Election Day on November 5.

Most normal people would expect that arrests and charges and court appearances and even guilty verdicts would make a presidential candidate less popular, if not unelectable.

Everything we’ve seen so far says it doesn’t work like that with Donald Trump.

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