Economists are questioning Treasury's 'worst case' economic forecast from the Iran war.

It predicts a worst case scenario of inflation hitting 3.7 percent this year - if the conflict persists.

Independent economist Cameron Bagrie says he doesn't think Treasury has properly taken into account businesses feeling the second-hand impact of rising fuel prices.

"If they've got a reason to push up prices under the guise of what's going on in Hormuz around the globe, firms are going to use that excuse and try to jam in some price rises. We've seen it before."

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Economists are questioning Treasury's 'worst case' economic forecast from the Iran war.
It predicts a worst case scenario of inflation hitting 3.7 percent this year - if the conflict persists.
Independent economist Cameron Bagrie says he doesn't think Treasury has properly taken into account businesses feeling the second-hand impact of rising fuel prices.
"If they've got a reason to push up prices under the guise of what's going on in Hormuz around the globe, firms are going to use that excuse and try to jam in some price rises. We've seen it before."
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With a straight down the middle approach, Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive on Newstalk ZB delivers the very latest news and views to New Zealanders as they wrap up their day.

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive

Cameron Bagrie: independent economist responds to Treasury's 'worst case' economic forecast

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/d453bb9b-2439-4972-90b3-b411007293f5/transcript

If there's any good that comes from this awful case of the man dying while waiting for help in Waikato Hospital's emergency department, it's that at least it's getting a lot of media attention.

I don't know if you recall but basically the same thing happened in 2021 at Middlemore Hospital. It was strange to me how little attention it received at the time, especially given everything else that was going wrong. There were people waiting for ambulances and dying in their doorways.

That was happening a lot. There were reports of overcrowded EDs, understaffed hospitals and all sorts of other problems. Yet, for some reason, it barely attracted any attention and I could never really explain why.

Perhaps, in retrospect, it was simply that it didn't fit the narrative. It was a Labour government at the time, Jacinda Ardern was Prime Minister and the government was pouring large amounts of money into a range of areas, including hospitals. So there was no easy explanation for why these things were happening.

Now, of course, it's much easier to explain: National government, austerity, therefore not enough money. There's a logical connection there, whether you agree with it or not.

While I'm horrified that this has happened, at least it is getting the attention it deserves because it was predictable — and it was predicted.

The problem is simple: we do not have enough nurses and doctors in our hospitals. Go into a hospital and tell me that's not true. Don't worry about the numbers that get trotted out every time we talk about this. We hear, "Oh, we've hired heaps of doctors, we've hired heaps of nurses," and so on. Numbers can be misleading.

You can say you've hired two new nurses but are those nurses fulltime or part-time? If they're fulltime, then you've gained two nurses. If they're part-time, you've effectively gained one fulltime equivalent nurse. This is the kind of thing I'm told is happening at the moment.

Ignore the numbers and look at what's actually happening.

Waikato ED wait times are so long that the waiting room is overcrowded and people are queueing out the door.

Does that look like a fully staffed department to you? No, because it isn't.

And the reason I want this to get attention is that an ED is one place none of us can avoid. Rich or poor, we're all likely to end up there at some point if we need emergency medical help. It has to work.

If it doesn't work, then people's lives are at risk. And the more attention that's focused on the fact that it isn't working, the greater the chance that something is actually done to fix it.

LISTEN ABOVE

If there's any good that comes from this awful case of the man dying while waiting for help in Waikato Hospital's emergency department, it's that at least it's getting a lot of media attention.
I don't know if you recall but basically the same thing happened in 2021 at Middlemore Hospital. It was strange to me how little attention it received at the time, especially given everything else that was going wrong. There were people waiting for ambulances and dying in their doorways.
That was happening a lot. There were reports of overcrowded EDs, understaffed hospitals and all sorts of other problems. Yet, for some reason, it barely attracted any attention and I could never really explain why.
Perhaps, in retrospect, it was simply that it didn't fit the narrative. It was a Labour government at the time, Jacinda Ardern was Prime Minister and the government was pouring large amounts of money into a range of areas, including hospitals. So there was no easy explanation for why these things were happening.
Now, of course, it's much easier to explain: National government, austerity, therefore not enough money. There's a logical connection there, whether you agree with it or not.
While I'm horrified that this has happened, at least it is getting the attention it deserves because it was predictable — and it was predicted.
The problem is simple: we do not have enough nurses and doctors in our hospitals. Go into a hospital and tell me that's not true. Don't worry about the numbers that get trotted out every time we talk about this. We hear, "Oh, we've hired heaps of doctors, we've hired heaps of nurses," and so on. Numbers can be misleading.
You can say you've hired two new nurses but are those nurses fulltime or part-time? If they're fulltime, then you've gained two nurses. If they're part-time, you've effectively gained one fulltime equivalent nurse. This is the kind of thing I'm told is happening at the moment.
Ignore the numbers and look at what's actually happening.
Waikato ED wait times are so long that the waiting room is overcrowded and people are queueing out the door.
Does that look like a fully staffed department to you? No, because it isn't.
And the reason I want this to get attention is that an ED is one place none of us can avoid. Rich or poor, we're all likely to end up there at some point if we need emergency medical help. It has to work.
If it doesn't work, then people's lives are at risk. And the more attention that's focused on the fact that it isn't working, the greater the chance that something is actually done to fix it.
LISTEN ABOVE

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: The attention on the Waikato ED case could increase the odds of fixing the problem

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/f66fe549-efe1-45a2-9eb3-b47e0041bb48/transcript

On the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast for Friday, 3 July, 2026, we ask Chief Victims Adviser Ruth Money if former Lotto presenter Russell Harrison should have been on leave on full pay for five years at the Justice Ministry after being arrested for money laundering.

Michael Laws tells us why he's in the race for a comeback as a New Zealand First MP.

Conservation Department senior science adviser Kate McInnes on the threat of bird flu for our native birds.

And Paul Allison and Alex Powell are on the Sports Huddle, one of them says Lionel Messi plays for Argentina, while Portugal plays for Cristiano Ronaldo.

Get the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast every weekday evening on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.

LISTEN ABOVE

On the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast for Friday, 3 July, 2026, we ask Chief Victims Adviser Ruth Money if former Lotto presenter Russell Harrison should have been on leave on full pay for five years at the Justice Ministry after being arrested for money laundering.
Michael Laws tells us why he's in the race for a comeback as a New Zealand First MP.
Conservation Department senior science adviser Kate McInnes on the threat of bird flu for our native birds.
And Paul Allison and Alex Powell are on the Sports Huddle, one of them says Lionel Messi plays for Argentina, while Portugal plays for Cristiano Ronaldo.
Get the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast every weekday evening on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.
LISTEN ABOVE

Full Show Podcast: 03 July 2026 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/be2d54f6-effa-474f-9aaf-b47c0076ac88/transcript

If you haven't yet caught up on the drama involving the former Lotto presenter and the gold-bar smuggling operation, you need to hear this because it basically involves your taxpayer money.

The chap's name is Russell Harrison. You might remember him from the Lotto draws. He went on to a job at the Ministry of Justice as a Kaiārahi, a Family Court navigator.

He took the job in June 2021 and later that same month he was charged with money laundering after meeting a man in an Auckland cemetery, where the man handed him $420,000 in cash. We now know that money was the proceeds of drug offending, although frankly, you could probably have guessed that at the time.

He then went to New Zealand Gold Merchants and bought six gold bullion bars. Ten days later, he flew to Turkey to deliver them to the head of the Comancheros.

When he was charged — bearing in mind he'd been in the job for less than a month — had he even turned up to work 20 times? I don't know. But when he was charged, the Ministry of Justice stood him down from his job and kept paying him his full salary for five years, right up until two weeks ago when he pleaded guilty.

If you look at the salary range for that role, he may have received as much as $564,000 of taxpayers' money while sitting at home and drawing out the court process, all the while collecting an income.

Everybody I've spoken to, including an employment lawyer, says this guy should have lost his job within months. The employer could reasonably have given him a few weeks but by the two- or three-month mark they should have sat down and sorted this out.

An employer does not have to wait for the courts to find somebody like this guilty. They can conduct their own independent investigation and determine for themselves whether dismissal is justified based on the available evidence and, for example, the likelihood that the employee has committed the alleged offences.

We don't know why the Ministry of Justice didn't do this because they're not talking about it. Instead, all we know is that they took an approach we are beginning to see repeatedly across the public sector: not really having much regard for the fact that this is absolutely taking the mickey out of the taxpayer.

They simply kept spending the money on him for five long years.

Now, hands up: which employer in the real world would keep you on full pay for five years after you're charged with helping the Comancheros?

Answer: no one.

Actually, disclaimer: the public service. But that's not the real world.

LISTEN ABOVE

If you haven't yet caught up on the drama involving the former Lotto presenter and the gold-bar smuggling operation, you need to hear this because it basically involves your taxpayer money.
The chap's name is Russell Harrison. You might remember him from the Lotto draws. He went on to a job at the Ministry of Justice as a Kaiārahi, a Family Court navigator.
He took the job in June 2021 and later that same month he was charged with money laundering after meeting a man in an Auckland cemetery, where the man handed him $420,000 in cash. We now know that money was the proceeds of drug offending, although frankly, you could probably have guessed that at the time.
He then went to New Zealand Gold Merchants and bought six gold bullion bars. Ten days later, he flew to Turkey to deliver them to the head of the Comancheros.
When he was charged — bearing in mind he'd been in the job for less than a month — had he even turned up to work 20 times? I don't know. But when he was charged, the Ministry of Justice stood him down from his job and kept paying him his full salary for five years, right up until two weeks ago when he pleaded guilty.
If you look at the salary range for that role, he may have received as much as $564,000 of taxpayers' money while sitting at home and drawing out the court process, all the while collecting an income.
Everybody I've spoken to, including an employment lawyer, says this guy should have lost his job within months. The employer could reasonably have given him a few weeks but by the two- or three-month mark they should have sat down and sorted this out.
An employer does not have to wait for the courts to find somebody like this guilty. They can conduct their own independent investigation and determine for themselves whether dismissal is justified based on the available evidence and, for example, the likelihood that the employee has committed the alleged offences.
We don't know why the Ministry of Justice didn't do this because they're not talking about it. Instead, all we know is that they took an approach we are beginning to see repeatedly across the public sector: not really having much regard for the fact that this is absolutely taking the mickey out of the taxpayer.
They simply kept spending the money on him for five long years.
Now, hands up: which employer in the real world would keep you on full pay for five years after you're charged with helping the Comancheros?
Answer: no one.
Actually, disclaimer: the public service. But that's not the real world.
LISTEN ABOVE

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: What real employer would do what the Ministry of Justice did?

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/9ede1ca7-492f-4405-ac05-b47c007954ff/transcript

Cameron Bagrie: independent economist responds to Treasury's 'worst case' economic forecast

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