The coalition appears to have good odds of winning the next election, largely thanks to New Zealand First. 

The NZ Herald - Motu Research Poll of Polls suggests there is an 88.3 percent probability the coalition will win a second term. 

The model shows it's extended its lead over the opposition by two points in the last 12 months.

Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper explained how this data is calculated - and whether voters can take it seriously.

LISTEN ABOVE

The coalition appears to have good odds of winning the next election, largely thanks to New Zealand First.&nbsp;
The NZ Herald - Motu Research Poll of Polls suggests there is an 88.3 percent probability the coalition will win a second term.&nbsp;
The model shows it's extended its lead over the opposition by two points in the last 12 months.
Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper explained how this data is calculated - and whether voters can take it seriously.
LISTEN ABOVE

With a straight down the middle approach, Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive on Newstalk ZB delivers the very latest news and views to New Zealanders as they wrap up their day.

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive

Barry Soper: Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent on the Poll of Polls predicting the next election winners

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