The coalition appears to have good odds of winning the next election, largely thanks to New Zealand First. 

The NZ Herald - Motu Research Poll of Polls suggests there is an 88.3 percent probability the coalition will win a second term. 

The model shows it's extended its lead over the opposition by two points in the last 12 months.

Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper explained how this data is calculated - and whether voters can take it seriously.

LISTEN ABOVE

The coalition appears to have good odds of winning the next election, largely thanks to New Zealand First.&nbsp;
The NZ Herald - Motu Research Poll of Polls suggests there is an 88.3 percent probability the coalition will win a second term.&nbsp;
The model shows it's extended its lead over the opposition by two points in the last 12 months.
Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper explained how this data is calculated - and whether voters can take it seriously.
LISTEN ABOVE

With a straight down the middle approach, Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive on Newstalk ZB delivers the very latest news and views to New Zealanders as they wrap up their day.

Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive

Barry Soper: Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent on the Poll of Polls predicting the next election winners

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/bdfb1b8b-9ae8-40f4-aee0-b447005e0e30/transcript

So, I was listening to the radio and a story really jumped out at me. I thought, “Wow!”

The headline was: Porirua City Council has achieved a 0% average increase in rates. Zero percent! You can almost hear the whole country saying, “Wow - could I have that, please?”

This milestone comes alongside zero cuts to services. Double wow.

However - depending on your QV valuation - you may still see some increases to your rates. The Porirua City Council achieved a 0% average increase for non-water rates through a combination of a multi-year fiscal strategy, structural service shifts and targeted cost-cutting measures.

But there’s a clue in that sentence. When you first hear the story, you think, “Good on Porirua - it can be done.” You might also wonder why Porirua would ever consider amalgamation, especially joining the spending crazies in Wellington.

But then there’s that key phrase: non-water rates. That’s the fishhook.

Water rates have been separated out as part of Local Water Done Well. The newly established regional water entity handling Porirua’s supply, Tiaki Wai, has announced an average 12.8% increase in water charges across the Wellington region - including Porirua - for the 2026–27 financial year.

Ah, I see. So it’s 0% for everything except water… which is up 12.8%. Uh-huh.

And this was actually a detail missing in the debate about Auckland’s 7.9% rates increase because that figure also excludes Watercare’s rise in water charges - which has been announced at a further 7% on top.

I doubt very much that any council, once water rates are included, will come in under double digits in this next round.

So maybe the problem hasn’t really been solved.

I’ll admit there is greater efficiency in our councils. I’ll admit they’re watching their spending - I’ve seen it happen, including in Auckland.

But the fact remains: despite all the big PR messaging, there is no real, tangible decrease in the amount of money coming out of your wallet - or mine.

LISTEN ABOVE

So, I was listening to the radio and a story really jumped out at me. I thought, “Wow!”
The headline was: Porirua City Council has achieved a 0% average increase in rates. Zero percent! You can almost hear the whole country saying, “Wow - could I have that, please?”
This milestone comes alongside zero cuts to services. Double wow.
However - depending on your QV valuation - you may still see some increases to your rates. The Porirua City Council achieved a 0% average increase for non-water rates through a combination of a multi-year fiscal strategy, structural service shifts and targeted cost-cutting measures.
But there’s a clue in that sentence. When you first hear the story, you think, “Good on Porirua - it can be done.” You might also wonder why Porirua would ever consider amalgamation, especially joining the spending crazies in Wellington.
But then there’s that key phrase: non-water rates. That’s the fishhook.
Water rates have been separated out as part of Local Water Done Well. The newly established regional water entity handling Porirua’s supply, Tiaki Wai, has announced an average 12.8% increase in water charges across the Wellington region - including Porirua - for the 2026–27 financial year.
Ah, I see. So it’s 0% for everything except water… which is up 12.8%. Uh-huh.
And this was actually a detail missing in the debate about Auckland’s 7.9% rates increase because that figure also excludes Watercare’s rise in water charges - which has been announced at a further 7% on top.
I doubt very much that any council, once water rates are included, will come in under double digits in this next round.
So maybe the problem hasn’t really been solved.
I’ll admit there is greater efficiency in our councils. I’ll admit they’re watching their spending - I’ve seen it happen, including in Auckland.
But the fact remains: despite all the big PR messaging, there is no real, tangible decrease in the amount of money coming out of your wallet - or mine.
LISTEN ABOVE

Perspective with Andrew Dickens: Has the rates problem really been solved?

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/16dcb84c-6cfe-4a5b-8015-b4620043aa90/transcript

On the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast with Andrew Dickens for Friday, 5 June, 2026, a constitutional law expert questions the soaring cost of government agencies dealing with Official Information Act requests.

We hear from School Board Association president Meredith Kennett about ACT's vow to lower the cost of school uniforms.

Air Chathams chief executive Duane Emeny talks about how hard it was to ring customers to let them know flights between Kapiti and Auckland were ending.

And on the Sports Huddle, Andrew Gourdie and Hamish McKay discuss whether it's a good move to ban the vuvuzela from the football World Cup.

Get the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast every weekday evening on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.

LISTEN ABOVE

On the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast with Andrew Dickens for Friday, 5 June, 2026, a constitutional law expert questions the soaring cost of government agencies dealing with Official Information Act requests.
We hear from School Board Association president Meredith Kennett about ACT's vow to lower the cost of school uniforms.
Air Chathams chief executive Duane Emeny talks about how hard it was to ring customers to let them know flights between Kapiti and Auckland were ending.
And on the Sports Huddle, Andrew Gourdie and Hamish McKay discuss whether it's a good move to ban the vuvuzela from the football World Cup.
Get the Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive Full Show Podcast every weekday evening on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.
LISTEN ABOVE

Full Show Podcast: 05 June 2026 

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/d09c1b9d-d1f2-4167-9a67-b4600076b8b8/transcript

Newstalk ZB Senior Political Correspondent Barry Soper joined Andrew Dickens to chat about the political week that was.

They discussed the MPs banned from China following a Taiwan visit last year, the Government moving to ban unelected members from voting in local councils, and the rise of the fringe parties. 

LISTEN ABOVE 

Newstalk ZB Senior Political Correspondent Barry Soper joined Andrew Dickens to chat about the political week that was.
They discussed the MPs banned from China following a Taiwan visit last year, the Government moving to ban unelected members from voting in local councils, and the rise of the fringe parties.&nbsp;
LISTEN ABOVE&nbsp;

Barry Soper: Political Correspondent chats banned MPs, fringe parties, and local councils

https://api.omny.fm/orgs/7784f840-c291-422a-924b-ad9000bbad71/clips/59756257-e733-4417-bc8c-b46000733da3/transcript

Barry Soper: Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent on the Poll of Polls predicting the next election winners

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