Failing to hit our 2030 emissions target could be a bad look for New Zealand, according to one expert. 

Treasury's predicted we could have to pay about five-billion dollars in overseas carbon credits to meet our Paris Agreement target.

Prime Minister Chris Luxon says they'll try, but won't be spending that.

Waikato University climate law professor Barry Barton says failing our targets could hurt our trade agreements.

"There's no immediate hard sanction for failure to deliver on your nationally determined contribution, however, there's definite expectations in the system where countries will do what they say." 

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