NBA Finals game 3 preview

Published Jun 12, 2024, 1:16 PM

Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard preview the NBA Finals game 3.

You always follow the money.

That's what I say, you always follow Yeah. Yeah, This is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and Polly Howard on Vson.

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It is Follow the Money here on Vson, the Sports Betty Network. This show is brought to you by DraftKings, Mitch Moss Paully Howard live in downtown Las Vegas from the Circa Resort and casino busy three hour program lined up today, we'll get into Game number three of the NBA Finals. Plenty to talk about in this game, with the Porzingis injury, Luca's health, a lot of props to talk about major League Baseball. Are we sure this team's going to make the playoffs? They're a heavy favorite, but they're struggling mightily in.

The last month or so.

We have us open best bets in that as it begins early tomorrow morning, and we'll get your bets as we take you down our pizzeria coming up in about ninety minutes. PAULI, but some this is significant news. In my opinion, I thought Porzingis was going to be the key to the series. For example, had he not played at all, I think the Mavericks would have won the series. Actually, I would have bet them in a longer series to win the whole thing that they're down too. Well, the guy has been pretty massive in terms of his overall impact. Game one, obviously he was outstanding. I don't think he plays tonight. And now this point spread for the game has been sitting that Dallas minus two and a half for quite some time. I did see it touch three at some spots yesterday on the program A day ago. I tried to convince you on Mavericks first quarter, first half, you weren't there.

Have you gotten there yet?

No? I don't. The internet doctors all over in terms of is he gonna play or will he even be back for the series. So with the tendon injury, it's significant Horford is not done well when he gets into the thirty minute range. Porzingis was so good in the first two games. You're right, Dallas hadn't faced the stretch five other than chet Holmgren, so the issues that he presents. So it's we'll find out. We're going to have a series, and with Dallas series a season on the line. All the angles there, Oh two first half, everything you want? First quarter, But I don't know. I don't know if he's gonna play, but certainly if they don't have him and he's less than sixty seventy percent whatever it's going to be, it could swing the series. But let's start here also where I mean, Dallas has to make some shots and this can't continue. Shoemaker wrote about this on vson dot Com that it's I mean, they're getting wide open looks and how bad they've been from three and guys not named Luca how bad they've been from three, So you would think that would swing and change. Now I'm pretty sure it will with home because guys, yeah, the others always play well at home, so that has to change. This can't continue.

This is a very good note.

The Vson newsletter Wake Up, Write in your inbox every day about six o'clock Eastern time. Bill Lady has this in there, and it's from Jonathan von tobl on the impact overall of Porzingis and his ability to space the floor and how big of a role it's played for the Celtics so far in the series. His presence along the perimeter has forced the Maverick bigs right. That was such a big storyline against Minnesota and against Oklahoma City. Those players, but their centers now are guarding along the three point line, and that has opened up the paint for Boston. In two games so far, they are thirty four or forty one at the rim. That is eighty three percent. You're not going to be able to beat a team that's hitting at that clip very often at the rim.

Yeah. Well, here's why I'm hesitant, because Boston just came off a lousy game. Are they going to play another bad game? Is Tatum going to play like that again? I mean, everything went wrong for him, and they still won Game two when they were twenty six percent from three. Tatum was six of twenty two and they were beat on the boards. So they are also undefeated on the road this year in the playoffs. They're twenty two and seven straight up on the road the last three years in the playoffs. Three of their first three playoff games were all blowouts. They continue to go right pass Luca and he's been playing Matador defense, and as we mentioned yesterday, when Kyrie is the primary defender, Boston's eleven of sixteen for twenty seven points as well. So it's still Tatum's gonna play better. They're gonna play better and They're just a better road team the last three years as well. And you're talking about a team with the number one offense in NBA history and the number two defense. So I mean there's seventy eight and twenty for a reason.

Well, I could tag on that by also saying the Mavericks did not play well and they could have won the game easily.

Well, he should have won game two.

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I mean, like, who played well in the game outside of Luca.

The other thing you mentioned, no doubt, but you mentioned what's going on with porzeingis how about what's going on with Luca? Now, he had the triple double, but he had to have the injection and he has to get shot up before the game, and he's playing with a a lot of issues too, So can he keep this up? Well, he was okay in game one, the assists weren't there, he didn't get any help. He was superman in game two. But there's a lot of pressure on this guy to go out and deliver. And I don't know what Lively has four points in the series. Now, he was sixteen of sixteen against the Wolves. Jones hasn't played well. Washington Okay, at times Kyrie has been a trocio.

Here's the guy that we need to see tonight. Can we get a little tim hardaway action?

Don' won't play him?

Why?

I doubt it? Wait who you wilp on? Or two points in the middle of May? Are you saying but he doesn't play?

Yeah? Well, I mean, what's going right right now? Where you went to study like him?

Yeah? At least you get him some run out there, walk into some three. Yes, there's no reason why you can't well, not even not even on consideration. Two points in the middle of May. Yeah, absolutely that, or it doesn't even play got a dnp.

Last, this needs to be reinforced yet again, as always, if you don't know, if you're new to this, you have to shop around. You have to have multiple outs. For example, if you want to bet the Mavericks first quarter first half tonight, several books are offering minus one and a half with various juice in the first quarter. Otherwise you can actually just lay a half a point. The juice is going to be a dollar thirty five in that neighborhood. If you want to lay a half a point compared to one point overall, and for the first half. You can get as low as minus one and a half, minus one eighteen at some spot's minus one twenty in that neighborhood. It's minus two at DraftKings, minus two and a half at the Westgate and at Caesars. So that is a you know, again, every half a point, Every point matters. Some people might might laugh at that and say, no, you does trust me because you don't want to lay two and a half points in this game, or even two with the Mavericks in the first half. How the Celtics hit a forty five foot or at halftime and all of a sudden it's forty eight thirty six and bam, You're a loser.

You push when one and a half is out there.

Yeah. Yeah, these are ugly numbers. I mean, but this Kyrie all of eight from three, thirteen of thirty seven in the series Dallas five of thirty two from three not named Luca. MAVs starters other than Luca eight percent on wide open threes. That's impossible. I know your pre professional eight percent. I disagree with Scott Trabuco, and I also will disagree for the first time with Bob Bryan. Bob Ryan tweeted for the record. Larry Bird was eleven of thirty eight for nine points per game in games three, four, five of the nineteen eighty one finals. No one complained because he also had thirteen rebounds and eight assists per layoff. Tatum, Please, no, we're seven eight years in Bird. That was Bird's second year. Tatum can't keep doing this. Tatum has to step up.

He's right though his other numbers have been awesome.

Yeah, but he's got even more. I can't have six to twenty two. And here's what Trabuco said while you were out. He said, all the pressures on Missoula, not Brown and Tatum, and also pointing to the contract. If they blow this series, they're not going to fire Missoula. It's all about my god, Tatum can't get this done, and Brown can't get.

There, going to trade one of those guys that's never never, that will never ever happen.

Oh yeah, but it's gonna be just be NonStop about all over these guys, about if you can't do it this year, when are you gonna win a title? Are you sure that happened?

They can't fire Missoula.

Are you positive you think they would I don't think that's on the tap.

If they blew blow this series and they lose four out of the next five, oh, that's absolutely on the table.

Wow.

Okay, I disagree but that. I'm not a Missoula fan though. I'm just say, if you can't if you can't win to go, if you can't win the title here with all the injuries and you're up to nothing and you made the conference finals six of the last eight years and you have zero rings to show for it, that's an epic that failure disaster.

Oh, there's no question about that, right. But you're not gonna trade Tatum. You're not gonna trade Brown.

I don't care.

Their contracts are insane, but you're not gonna trade the one of those guys.

Yeah, it's not you ever gonna you play for championships. It's Boston. You're hanging banners. You only have one title since eighty six. If you can't win it this year and their their legacy, and also, are you ever gonna get it done? I don't think the national media is gonna be saying, oh my god, the Celtics lost. Yah, Zula's got to go. I think it's more on is Tatum ever gonna be able to do this. O, you're being too harsh on the guy on Tatum.

His other numbers have been fantastic. He found a way to get Paul.

Here's the thing, and we agree on this, Jason Tatum cannot take any more of these stupid twenty seven foot step backs. He's not good at it. Yeah, that's his biggest problem. And off shooting night. I mean, that's been who he is in the playoffs or in big games now his entire career. He just doesn't shoot the ball well. But he also thinks that he's Steph Curry and it has never made any sense. How is that an effective or efficient shot?

Yeah?

I don't even know how the Celtics organizations still allow it to happen. That's the single biggest thing. And when he goes hero ball and it decides to take these dumb, inexplicable deep shots contested rather than using his force his ability is talent to get closer to the rim.

That's the biggest issue. Yeah, And you cannot deny.

That they're also fortunate they have Holiday because Holiday has been a star in this series. And as we talked that touched on yesterday, thirty eight points, no turnovers, and his MVP number is crashed one hundred and twenty to one before Game two, now seven to one. Dallas yet to crack one hundred in the series. Stop turning the ball over. See if you can make some open shots. But because we could have a four or five game series and I'm not, you can't count out Dallas, especially poor zingis is out. But these props, a lot of stuff is live here. I mean because you also you have a team in Boston that's averaging thirty nine threes attempts per game in the playoffs. This is wild to think that White or someone else can cast this not only from a game three standpoint at DraftKings, but also for the series. Well, are you going to take that many threes? And you have a guy who takes that many threes in White? And you see the prices that are out there, and you still see he's what five rebounds behind Tatum and what the prices are there? All these props are still wide open.

Now how about that tonight?

I was looking routed some books last night for the first three pointer made of the game.

I think circa posted.

I even checked this morning, But last night Circa had plus seven to seventy five on Derek White.

I bet him in game was game two? I think, yeah, I bet him in the first three or game won or game two whatever was. Yeah, Jones cast sixteen to one, and yeah that.

Jones the big number again today makes sense. Washington is a big number tonight. I think you can get behind him as well.

But what if the Celtics win. Maybe it's they Dallas packs it in game four. It could be a blowout. The guys don't play. The kid waves the white flag. All the stuff's in play here.

While we were on the wrong guard as at this point, going back a good month, we were on Derek White and so that he was a guy. He was having such a good start to the playoffs and we thought they could come out of the East.

He was good in game too. I mean he's oh yeah, no, can fine.

But Jew Holliday is now the guy with all the team here.

That's right. But there's a lot of stuff here. You know, Tatum double double in every game, Brown to outscore Kyrie in every game was nine to one. That's that you're halfway home, man. You know, Luke a leading scorer in every game, eighteen to one. You're halfway home.

All right, We'll continue what Pauli is saying right now.

There are some big numbers out there in some of these markets where they're really really close and some guy could pull it off. Plus ninety one, forty seven and one trend going into tonight's game.

We rumbled tomorrow. Can't wait three point thirty in the morning. We start with the US Open coverage and listen to long Shots the podcast Wes Reynolds, Matt Brown, Kelly Bidlin, Every bet, every prop, the toughest major. I'm gonna say two under wins it. Long Shots today noon Easter, nine am Pacific, right here on Vison. Other props here that are that were before the series. Luca a double double every game was five to one.

I know people who bet that.

Yeah, Luca makes four threes in every game, seven to one. Luca leading scorer in every game eighteen to one. Brown outscores Kyrie in every game nine to one. Tatum double double every game eight to one.

That's a good one.

All right, it's two games in, but so far, so good. You got a shot here, especially if it's a sweep.

So here are the overall numbers NBA teams down two games to none at home since two thousand and five, in the first half they are ninety one forty seven to one ATS. For the full game, they are sixty six seventy and three ATS. That's part of the reason why you've seen this adjustment now in recent years by sportsbooks. You're getting no break, have not gotten a break on this. That's why the first half number is basically the same as the full game number tonight. Now that's from Evan Abrams. When you break this down, he's at Action Network. When you break this down, even more so when home teams are down to zero two in game three. But if you go a little if you go past round one, it gets even stronger. It's thirty nine sixteen and two ATS thirty four percent ROI and another strong one game three Home teams off a loss of five or more are one hundred and fifteen sixty seven and seven ATS, that is sixty three point two percent, And if you go beyond the conference finals, it's twenty and seven ATS with a twenty point four percent ROI.

Yeah, strong numbers, season on the line, all of it. But again, kids, right, if they continue to turn the ball over and they're missing these open looks and the others don't play well, they're probably going to get embarrassed. Not just lose, they'll get embarrassed because I expect Boston to play a better game. And as far as just rush running to the window or going to the app and betting it's you also have to consider this could be an all time team with Boston, considering what their numbers are in net rating, offense, defense. You mention it all year, the blowouts, how well they've done, and you're seventy eight and twenty and you're six and zero on the road as well, so yet to lose a road game and you're all superstar is also compromise. So I don't know what's gonna happen with Porzingis, but I know Luca's playing through a ton of stuff. But anything's possible in these next two games.

Well, to answer your question about the historical stuff, the numbers won't lie. Their power rating is right there with Golden State, and the power rating is don't scoff, it's right there with the Bulls with Michael Jordan. I don't really, I mean this sounds this is probably that betters out there would be like, you can't say this, Mitch, I'm going to anyway. I would not like the Celtics chances against either one of those teams. I think they would get punished.

Yeah, I think.

I think that's where Jason Tatum would have a made your problem.

Becausally twenty seventeen Golden.

State, Dreymond Green would make him cry.

Yeah, and Scotty Pippen and Dennis Robin would make him cry, make.

Him play in tears.

Probably, so some of the overall series props and this is okay. So Luca is minus two thousand to lead the series in points.

He has sixty two. Will anybody catch him? He's injured again?

They'd have to be an injury. Number one, he has too big of a lead. Number two, he's going to get so many shots and a bad game for him is what twenty four points to get even? Right? He had thirty points in Game one, they pulled them with five minutes laught.

So think about that. He has sixty two. Tatum and Brown are fifteen to one each. Tatum has thirty four, Brown has forty three. They're twenty points plus behind him. Brown nineteen, but Tatum Kyrie is ninety to one. He has twenty eight points. The threes leader market, like he talked about, Luca is minus six fifty, he has eight.

Derek White is four to one. He has seven. He's gonna get his shots.

Yep, and a lot of them from three. I like White not only tonight but also for the series. And you also could see some wonky stuff again, just this is a team that averages thirty nine attempts a game.

That's right.

So if you're going to take that many, you're going to have an outlier or a scenario where someone can hit seven or eight in a game. And why takes so many? So I know lucap takes a lot, but if Luca's going to have like a three for eleven or a two for ten, which is certainly possible. And Boston's done a great job, especially on Kyrie, but how well Holiday's played defensively in this series, that opens it up. Maybe even a Brown or someone like that, yeah, could go off. But for him to be it's minus six fifty and he only has a one one lead up one on him, I think that's outrageous.

I know Tatum's twenty five to one, he has four. I don't want him he's just not a good three point shooter. Holiday is fifty to one, he has four.

I don't know.

Maybe I think you're right. I think maybe go a little bit further down the board than that. You look at a Jalen Brown and you look at some I know, can Kyrie have a game where he has five or six threes? Can PJ Washington hit five threes tonight?

Washington could yeah and get back into this thing. Yeah, he was so good against OKC.

That's if you're gonna look.

I look at Derek White four to one and had go beyond like a PJ at one thousand to one or that's the MVP. Sorry, but most threes in that neighborhood.

Yeah, take a take. Put some pizza money on something like that. The rebounds leader.

Now I bet this before the series, would you take? I took Tatum minus one fifty, So now Luca is the favorite, but Luca's only up one.

I think you got a bet Tatum again, yeah at plus one oh five.

Yeah, but also think about this, Luca has.

Twenty one rebounds, Tatum twenty, Holiday has nineteen. Drew Holiday he's got nineteen, he's twenty. I bet him forty to one. He's done a twenty five to one today.

Look at that two back and that's the price.

Can he have an he had eleven the other night? Can you have another game? Can he just remain in the mix by giving us another seven eight rebound game? Absolutely, he can't because he can't. If he has like four tonight, the BET's dead.

Yep, well, especially if it continues to be a bricklayer convention from Dallas.

Yeah, and PJ. Washington is fifty to one. He has fifteen rebounds so far.

Yeah, now this one really, this is awesome. Hold on to your hats assists leader in the series. Remember Luca opened. Luca was seven dollars before the series started. He's minus two dollars and he trails Tatum by five.

Yeah, I mean this is hey.

If I'm looking, if i'm him, I'm looking around, like, who do I trust? Like, if it comes out they come out tonight and the others are missing shots again, I'm just like the hell with it. I'm going down. I'm taking I'm going down with the ship right, I'm shooting thirty times. I don't trust these other guys.

Well, this is gonna come down to how the Celtics have defended Luca and the rest of that team, right if they're not going to allow the other players. If they're basically saying Luca and Kyrie can beat us, that's fine, nobody else will. It's worked out so far, hence the assists have not been there. And by the way, to tie into our conversation on Jason Tatum in the first segment, like let's say that something clicked in his head where he's like, Okay, the SHOT's not falling again tonight, I can operate as the true facilitator here.

He's plus one eighty and he has a five assist lead.

Now again, Luca could come out tonight have like thirteen assists and you're like, oh, that was dumb. But what Tatum can't have six, seven, eight nine again tonight to stay in the mix. I think yes he can. I think plus one eighty is a damn.

Gonna absolutely is. They're a scenario for holiday. He could do that too, believe the facilitator and have a big game with assist. You also could have season on the line, must win all of that and Dallas blows them out and maybe Kid is sitting the starters again, and maybe it's Missoula who decides to keep guys in from the Boston standpoint, and maybe that's in play, who knows. But that's all these are live because you could you look at the possibility of a four or five game series.

They also have DraftKings. Now they've expanded the menu and offered even more bets, but they have the first quarter markets. For example, who is going to lead the game in first quarter points score tonight? So far in the series, Luca has twenty points in the first quarter. Porzingis has nineteen. Well, I mean, forget about that. I don't think he's gonna play in the game tonight. Kyrie has twelve, Holiday has eleven. What if the Mavericks come out tonight and established Kyrie early like they did in that one game against the Timberwolves, which I could see happening. And I think Kyrie is not a bad bet to lead the game in scoring tonight.

Really yeah, I think I think it really helps him that the games now we're out of Boston one hundred percent. It does the crowd. The crowd messed with him and he, you know, he challenged them. He couldn't handle it.

I think that he was he put everything mentally into those first two games. I don't think he probably got much sleep. I think he probably overthought about it the entire time, and it was a big deal right in his hands. It did, it really did.

Yep. Yeah, And so I think he's gonna be a lot more comfortable going back home tonight.

You would be surprised if Porzingis plays.

Yes, I would be. Yes.

I've come around on Dallas first quarter, first half, and probably money line for the game.

I think they win tonight.

He was walking fine.

I saw the video.

Yeah, and he set up. They were saying all the right things after game two, and now it's like, who knows what? I don't know. This is a bizarre with the tendon. Can't even pronounce the in that's where what happened. So this is yeah, maybe they just say we'll sit you for a game and then you need the rest. I don't know, because you also if he plays, even if he's okay again, you got to short turnaround because game four is Friday. That's right, So he looks fine here walking We're watching the video here, but that's I could.

Be dead wrong on this two and you could go out there tonight and looking like there's nothing wrong whatsoever. But as of right now, you know, twelve and a half hours before tip, I'll be a little bit surprised if he doesn't play. Now, the Betty market did move a little bit last night based on this. Now, it wasn't drastic, didn't go from like one and a half to six, but it moved a half a point or a point in some spots. The problem is like trying to really get there with the Mavericks, others and the guys who are going to step up. I think Kirk Kyrie plays well and Luke is gonna have a nice game, But then is it PJ. Can you trust Derek Jones Kleeber He's unplayable.

He's been awful so bad to this point, and he's still injured and he's messing with his shot.

And that's why it was the key is unplayable. I was calling for Hardaway in the first segment. You looked at me like I had two heads. That's part of the reason why he doesn't.

Really, Yeah, he won't. He won't shoot.

Washington cast the ticket first three a game two he did took his ten to one. So there's been some big payouts already to start Jones sixteen and Washington ten.

All Right, Julian Edlow is going to join the program coming up next. He lives in Boston.

He has a great pulse on the Celtics team has for a long long time. We'll get his best bets on Game three coming up tonight on Follow the Money. It's vsin D Sports, Betty Network,

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