The decision by Israel’s top generals and intelligence chiefs not to put the IDF on high alert in the hours before October 7 was “the worst gamble in Israeli military history,” according to senior defense analyst Amos Harel, speaking on the Haaretz Podcast on the third anniversary of the attack by Hamas on southern Israel. 

“They terribly, tragically underestimated both Hamas’ capabilities and its actual intentions that night,” Harel said. 

Harel is the author of “6:29: Anatomy of a Failure,” the first and most complete account of the chain of mistakes by the country’s top military and political echelons leading up to the devastating events of that day.

On the podcast, Harel recounts the military and political mistakes that were made, pinning them on “arrogance” and a “condescending” misreading of Hamas’ capabilities and determination – and how their failures have shaken Israeli citizen’s belief that they are “in safe hands.” 

“We have the best air force in the region, one of the best in the world. We have the technology. We have the operational understanding, and so on, and yet we were taken by complete surprise,” he noted. 

Harel also discusses the legacy of October 7, including how it is shaping Israel’s upcoming election, and the narrative crafted by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that has allowed him to maintain political viability as he runs a campaign that exploits fears of a repeat of the disaster, all while  blocking the formation of an October 7 commission of inquiry or any other comprehensive investigation, and fanning the flames of conspiracy theories.

Netanyahu, he said, is “fighting for his life by any means necessary. Everything is worth it in order to maintain power and stay out of jail.”

Read more:

Analysis by Amos Harel | Three Years After Hamas Attacked on October 7, Israel Has Yet to Start Reckoning With Its Failures

October 7: How Hamas Attacked Israel, Minute by Minute

Protests Across Israel Mark Third Anniversary of October 7

Israel's October 7 Leaders Mourned the Dead – and Celebrated Their Own Survival

Op-ed | My Mother Was a Peace Activist Killed on October 7. Don't Use Her Name to Justify Mass Killing