With U.S. warships in place positioned around Iran, Israelis are bracing for the regime-toppling attack that U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened against Tehran and the government that cracked down so brutally on protesters last month. In response, Iranian leaders warned they would “hit the heart of Tel Aviv” in retaliation to any American offensive. 

However, noted Haaretz senior defense analyst Amos Harel, speaking on the Haaretz Podcast, it seems that Trump “has lost a little bit of his appetite for destruction” in recent days, angling to push a weakened Iran to the negotiating table.

Not only is Trump encouraging a diplomatic solution, Harel said, but “when we talk about negotiations, then there's a difference between what was on the table about a month ago, which was an American demand for more or less destroying the regime, or for the regime to step down and for the democracy to be installed in Iran. Now we're talking about something completely different” – a deal limiting Iran’s nuclear capabilities instead. 

“What the president is trying to do is to force the Iranians to agree to major concessions regarding their nuclear project. But it doesn't solve the number one issue for most Iranians: getting rid of the regime.” Harel said. 

Will the Iranian leadership take the deal? Judging from their statements, Harel said, “they are in panic.” 

On the podcast, Harel also assesses the situation in Gaza as the U.S.-brokered Israel-Hamas cease-fire deal enters its second phase, which took a step forward this week with the opening of the Rafah crossing. The real test of the deal, however, depends on whether the international coalition Trump has built is enough to pressure Hamas to lay down its arms. 

If Hamas’s military capabilities “aren’t dismantled,” Harel said, “it will be hard to proceed.”

Read more:

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