Sometimes making mistakes makes you a better investor in the long run.
Knowing what mistakes to look out for can save you thousands.
This week on the Friends With Money podcast, Money's Michelle Baltazar chats with John Addis, Money contributor and author, about his biggest investing mistakes and how to avoid them.
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Hello and welcome to the Friends with Money Podcast, your weekly pod to help you save and make more money. My name is Michelle Baltasar, editor in chief here at Money Magazine. Thank you for joining us. It's the first day of the new year, so happy new Year to everyone, and we thought what better way to start it than to motivate you to come up with your investing resolutions for twenty twenty five. And I have to start getting used to saying that twenty twenty five. Now. While opening up a shares account is easy enough, it's the different scenarios along the way, the ups and downs of the market, that can trip a lot of people up. That's why we've invited John Addis, founder of Intelligent Investor and author of a new book titled How Not to Lose one Million dollars Win at Investing by Losing Less. John is also a regular columnist at Money, so if you're a subscriber you would have seen his articles through the years. So by the end of this episode, he'll also be sharing his insights on how to as his book recommends, win at investing by losing less. John, Welcome to the show.
Thanks very much, Michelle, nice to be here.
Now, congratulations on your book. So tell us why did you decide to come up with this idea of not about saying how to win one million dollars, but you're saying how not to lose it.
Yeah, there's a couple of reasons. I think the first thing was was that if you're telling people how to invest, all of those books have already been written. In my view, there's probably twenty or thirty books that you can read that will tell you how to do value investing, which is a process that we follow. It's an easy process to learn. I think it's much much harder to do. But those books are out there. So when my publisher approached me to write a book and I said, well, what do you want me to write a book on, she said, well, anything you like. And when I looked around, there's no books on losing money. The industry does not write about its mistakes, and yet I think that is how humans learn. We don't learn from our successes, we learn from our mistakes. So I decided to maybe foolishly write a book on our mistakes.
It is a bit of a confessional and certainly it's almost counterintuitive to use the word lose right when you're talking about investing, And in fact, in your book you even said, you know what, some people probably they shouldn't be investing directly. But again that comes from a place of honesty that you really need to do your research and you should have a process.
That's right. I think most people probably shouldn't be managing their own money. I don't think most people are psychologuearticularly predisposed to it. I don't think most people have the time to do it. I think the people who treat it as a hobby, as an intellectual exercise are probably well disposed to do it. But that is not most people. The advice out there from people like Scott Pape about just getting a portfolio of ETFs and investing in that and adding to it regularly, and most importantly not selling when you most feel like it. That's probably the best thing for most people to do. But if you do want to manage your own money, this book really will tell you how hard it is, because you would experience all of the mistakes that I write about in the book. And if at the end of it, you think that sounds like something I can do, I can manage, maybe even enjoy, then maybe investing your own money and running your own portfolio is for you. If you're thinking about it, this will tell you how hard it is. Everybody talks about how much money you can make, but they don't talk about the pain involved in making it.
That is so true. And what I like about your book is that you've given case studies. There are specific examples there, so people can really imagine what it's like when a share the share price tanks or at the same time, when it's on the app. In a previous episode, we did talk about the fact that this is not for everyone, but there is a cohort out there. There's a certain even personality type if you like where you are built to at least, like you said, learn from your mistakes and build your wealth that way. So let's kick off with what you just mentioned earlier, the shares that you sell too soon. What are your kind of tips or advice for our listeners on that.
Okay, So when I was thinking about the book, I really struggle to categorize the errors. I think you can say some areas are technical, you just get your analysis wrong, you don't understand the business model, you back management team that is inept or corrupt. But those are all kind of easy mistakes to make. The hardest mistake I found to deal with it's selling really good quality stocks too soon. So even a terrible mistake, you can only lose one hundred percent of your money. If you sell Cocklear as I did at eighty dollars and it goes up to two hundred and seventy, yes, then that more than makes up for a lot of bad decisions before it. So I would say that the biggest mistakes, the most costly mistakes in the book of the stocks that we sold too soon, And generally the reason why that was was that we underestimated all of the things that can go right in a good business and that actually affected the long term valuation. So we underestimated how quickly Cochlear could rise in price and how quickly it could add value to shareholders.
That is so true. A lot of people do sell their share are too soon, especially those who are just beginning to invest and they don't know what they're going to do. They get excited about it. Conversely, there are shares though that people do hang on for a very long time or they're already making losses out of it and so they've sold it too late. What are your insights on that.
Well, I think humans are wired for activity, so we tend to think investing is about making more decisions rather than fewer decisions. The thing about stocks we sold too soon is is that when you've got a good company, you can actually make less decision do you let the company do the work for you. When you buy a company, though it changes our psychology, you become more committed to it as a result of purchasing it. It's a thing called commitment bias. And is it been proven in research that once you buy something, then you're more predisposed to hang on to it. So in the stocks that we sold too late, these were businesses that we bought that actually the investment case was okay, you know we did that the investment case was strong. The trouble is is that investing is a game of chance and probabilities, and in most circumstances, situations don't exactly work out as you planned. And the problem with commitment bias is that when you see the business going off the rails or going off track. That makes it much much harder to sell. So if you've ever said to yourself, I bought this stock for two dollars, it's down at one twenty, I'm going to wait until it gets back to two dollars, that's commitment bias. And that's when you sell stocks too late. That is the major course of selling stocks too late.
Now, what happens, I know that it happens to everyone. There would be that one or two stock that is just an absolute dud for example. Is there are there any tax implications to this? So very quickly, let's say something has gone down from one hundred bucks to now twenty bucks. You just want to sell it and just kind of drink a glass of water. What happens next in terms of the tax, Well.
It depends, I mean it depends how long you've held it. So if you hold a stock for more than twelve months, you qualify for the capital gainst tax discount. So what that means is is that instead of being taxed at your marginal rate of tax, you'll be taxed at half of it. I'm not tax expert, by the way, but this is fairly common knowledge. But generally, though the tax implications of investing are not something that I think people should spend too much time thinking about. If you've got a stock, as you said, that went down from a dollar to twenty cents and you want to sell it, then generally the best thing to do is to sell it when you should. If that's in June, and do you think you want to make the decision around that time. Don't wait until July because you'll have to wait twelve months to get the tax deduction. You can use those losses to offset other gains elsewhere. But generally I don't think you should be making decisions for tax purposes.
Yes, it shouldn't be about the tax the tax benefits. If you like going back to shares that you've sold too late or stocks that you've sold too late, what are some kind of hard and fast rules that you can stick with, Like if it's gone down twenty five percent, you just have to copy it any technical guidance.
Okay, Well, the first thing I would do for new investors is you should write down why you're buying the stock. For what reasons are you buying the stock? And that might be because it's growing sales at twenty percent a year, it's got good quality management, it operates in a market that is not so competitive in there's pricing power. So you list all of the reasons why you're buying the stock, and then every results period, so every six months you look at the latest result and you say, are all these things still true? Are there any signs that management isn't as good as I thought it was? Are there any signs that margins are decreasing? Are there any signs that maybe sales growth is slowing down? And if you start to tick some of those boxes, then you should reevaluate that that business. Because if a company departs from the roadmap it does, it tends not to get back onto it. So that's I think is a good tip for people is to write down why they buy a stock in the first place. And it shouldn't just be because you expect the price to go up, like you wouldn't buy a stock unless you expected the price to go up. So if you get into a situation where you've written those things down and the stock falls twenty or thirty percent, but all of those things are still true, you know you've bought it at a price you feel is reasonable, then just hang on, wear it out. Don't let the price determine the share price determine your action. Because stocks they rise in price and they fall in price, and sometimes that has absolutely nothing to do with the value of the business and everything to do with the psychology of it. So you can see in lithium stocks last year, for example, in early October, there was a massive rally in lithium stocks because China has announced the stimulus package, and we saw some of those lithium stocks go up twenty or thirty percent in price. That had nothing to do with the value in the business. Lightly over the short term, we don't even know what China is going to do in terms of stimulus, but the value is in that business. So that's the situation where the stocks fell. I would hang on because it hasn't departed from the roadmap.
See that's using common sense, isn't it. You're not trying to play some tricks. It's really about the company's prospects and it's going back to your core tenet of value investing. That's right now, onto the second last category that you talked about in your book, the shares that you should not have bought at all. Now tell us about that.
Okay, so there's three stocks in this category, and all of those stocks were what I would call business model mistakes. So I think the first thing you need to understand in investing when you're doing it yourself, is you want to really understand how a company makes money, and not just how it individually makes money, but how other companies in that market compete with each other. And I'll use the example of Timbercare, which I call our worst mistake over the last twenty five years.
Wow. So it's the record holder at the moment.
It's the runaway winner, and you could look at it from the finance point of view and an analytical point of view, and it looked really, really good. The problem was that we misunderstand. We misunderstood what timber Core did. So this was a managing investment scheme product, and basically you were selling tax reductions. People look at it and go, oh, they grow olives or timber plantation.
I remember the almond plantations.
John, that's it. That's it. Yeah, And that caused a lot of pain. We'd made quite a good money on a few stocks in these what were called managing investment schemes. What we didn't anticipate was the tax office doing something sensible, which was basically cutting the industry down to size, and when that happened, that just blew the investment case out of the water, and we misunderstood that business model. We saw how the business made money, we didn't understand what it was really selling, which was tax reductions. And when the tax office said no, that business almost disappeared. All that disappeared, that sector all but disappeared. So I think these are business model mistakes. There's another company in there, which is a printer. Printing is kind of a terrible industry. The machines cost a huge amount of money, it's quite labor intensive, and it's also very compared but there's far few appointed products and there was a while than there was ten years ago, and we felt that industry was consolidating and that the last company standing was one or two companies standing would make some good money. The fact is they didn't. They just kept on spending more money on expensive German printing machines and that's where all the money went into new capital expenditure. So again that was a business model mistake. We misunderstood really how that business functioned and how the industry at large functioned.
Almost a close cousin of the shares that you sold too late.
Yes. Yeah.
On a final note, I think we should end on a positive note. We are talking about the new year, and when talking about decisions that were right. You've made the right calls and now it's onto enjoying the benefits of great investments. But having said that, what about the share that you wish you bought but you didn't.
Okay? So I think this is an important one because the tendency is to think that we should buy every stock that goes up, and I don't believe that's true. You don't want to be gett into that situation. So After Pay a lot of people made a lot of money out of After Pay. I'm not one of them. We weren't one of them. We looked at that business many times and we couldn't see whether it was going to be a good business or not. And to be honest, here we are four or five years down the track and we still don't know whether After Pay is a good business. We know it's got a lot of customers, but we don't know whether it's a good business. It's been bought by Square, and you can't tell from Squares accounts, whether it's a good business or not. You have to learn to let things go. You're not going to pick everything that goes up in price, and you shouldn't try it to. But there are some good quality businesses that are often cheap and you miss them. And I have some regrets about matter Facebook, which was tading very cheaply about four years go. I missed out on that, and I missed out on Zero as well. So these are the stocks I have some regrets about. But investing is an optimistic activity. I think this is the new year. We should be optimistic about the year ahead. And the fact is I'm evidence, and I think Intelligent Investor is evidence of an optimistic mindset. You can make all of these mistakes and you can still do really, really well. You don't need to eliminate mistakes. You just need to learn how to mistake, make better mistakes, and learn from the ones that you do make mistakes on.
Now that is true. While we did spend the bulk of this episode on the mistakes and the bad calls, you've mentioned those share share buys, where from eighty dollars it's gone up to two hundred and seventy and overall I'm sure you have. You've made some big wins as well.
Yeah, yeah, I mean, you can't do this for twenty years and not have big winners. The laws of averages will say that you get big winners. You just need to hang on to them. That's the biggest challenge.
Can you name a couple of good calls that you've made?
Oh, I mean Arb, We bought it two dollars and it's now I think thirty dollars. I bought Apple when it was twenty five dollars a share. I made ten fifteen times money on that. Cold stocks, for example, which we recommended probably three years ago. Now we made well over ten times our money onto coal stocks. There's lots of them over twenty five years, and our performance track record points to that. I don't want to give people an impression that just because I've written a book on all our mistakes, everything we do is a mistake. You don't get to hang around twenty five years if you're not good at this. So exactly I wanted to show. I wanted to show people who were interested in in the mistakes and how to get better at making mistakes or from you your mistakes, And that's what the book's about.
And again this just showcases that it's not just about pretty investing. This is also about share investing in the long term and your proof of that. Once again, thank you for chatting with us. We'll leave it there for now, but John, congratulations again in your book and thanks for your time.
Thanks very much, Michelle, it's been fun.
As always to concern in any questions, comments or even topics you'd love for us to cover through our dedicated email which is podcast at moneymag dot com dot au. That's it for the first episode of twenty twenty five. I'm Michelle Baltazar. Bye for now.
Thanks for listening to the Friends with Money podcast. For credible, independent and easy to understand financial commentary, visit moneymag dot com dot au. Please remember that the views and opinions expressed in this podcast are general in nature, and further, independent advice and research based on your personal circumstances should be sought before making an investment decision.