How have local and international markets performed in 2024 and how are things shaping up in the months to come?
That’s the topic of discussion on this episode of the Friends With Money podcast featuring Money's Tom Watson and chief investment analyst at Wealth Within, Dale Gillham.
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Welcome to the Friends with Money podcast, brought to you by Money Magazine, creating financial freedom for Australians since nineteen ninety nine.
Hello, thanks for joining us for another episode of Friends with Money, Money Magazines podcast to help you earn, save, and achieve your financial goals. My name is Tom Watson, a senior journalist here at Money Magazine, and as always, it is a pleasure to be with you. We are already halfway through the year, so now is as good as time as any tour to pause for a moment to reflect, to take stock, so to speak. What are we taking stock of? You ask, well, exactly that the stock market today. We are going to check in on how markets have performed so far this year and how things are shaping up for the rest of twenty twenty four, because, boy oh boy, we all know that there are some interesting events to come in the months of the year. The known unknowns, the known knowns and the unknown unknowns as they are as they say. I should also say that we are recording this episode at the end of July, so it's entirely possible that things may have changed a little bit in the week and a half before this comes out.
Just so that.
Everyone is aware anyway, enough of my waffling on. I'm very pleased to say that. Sitting very patiently on the other end of the line, ready to lend his expertise to today's discussion is regular money contributor and chief investment analyst at Wealth within Dale, gillham Dale. Welcome back to Friends with Money.
Well my pleasure and thanks for inviting me back on again. I really enjoyed the last time we chatted, so did I.
So why you're back down while we're pleased to have you back? So I guess to start us off to dayd out, let's keep our focus local. How has the ASX performed so far in twenty twenty four and what's driven that?
The ASEX has really been a story this year sort of it's like it can I say not it? I was going to say double ed sword, but it's a tale of two different things. Obviously, we're seeing information technology been the standout sector this year, up over twenty six percent this year since one January. But the information technology sector only contributes to about four percent to ther Lord Index, so it's a very very small sector, although we do have some good stocks in that like zero and some of the other good stocks that we all have in that. But financials has been the best big sector, up seventeen over nearly eighteen percent actually this year as of yesterday, So it's done very very well. I mean, you've seen stocks like Combank at new all time highs and this is just going to keep rising. I think Combank will hit one fifty plus over the next few months. So it is looking very very good. But what's been holding our market back? I mean, we're looking at the market at the moment. The ordinary index itself is only out four and a half percent, and think, well, how can technology be up twenty six percent, banking ups evenly eighteen percent, and the overall market only up under five percent? And it's because of materials. The two biggest sectors in our market are financials and then materials, and between the two of those they take up nearly half of our Ordinaries index. So if you've got one rising eighteen percent and materials fell fourteen percent, just take one from the other and you get around four percent. That's roughly what's happening, sorry, what's happening on our market right now?
And kind of digging in Oh god, that's a terrible, terrible part dig into materials end out, Well, what's kind of behind that?
Oh, look at the moment with the inflation rate, we've got the Australian dollar has been weak against the US dollar, although it's coming back a little bit at the moment, so having a slightly weaker dollar. Also, commodities prices haven't been there. We've got the higher interest rates which are slowing down construction industry as app as housing. Those sorts of economic factors there. But you've seen BHP, REO on FORDSCU, the three big ones in there all going south, you know, and there's a whole lot of reasons around that.
The world economies.
China does take a lot of our commodities and it's been we've had a lot of issues with China over the last few years.
We've all heard about the Evergrande collapse.
There's other property, big property companies collapsing or struggling in China. So with building slowing over there, so you can understand that. And I mean even lithium. You know, people talk about lithium for batteries and ev car explosions and battery revolutions, and yet lithiums it's just tanks, and so every week I'm getting people questioning or asking questions of me on my live youtum stream, you know, lithium and lithium stocks, and I went, yeah, catch a falling knife. They're all going down, and it's interesting how people think so to me a lot of factors, but I do. I am very positive about the material sector moving forward. Not right now, but probably in the next six months we'll see a bottom and starting to turn ou because I very much expect our market to be very bullish over the next few years.
We're moving into.
The last phage of a bullish cycle like we saw prior to the two thousand and seven run. So I think we're sort of if I make a comparison, we're probably two thousand and five right now, ready for the big run up into the peak, and then we'll have a crash in the second half of this decade. Another one I'm thinking around two thousand and seven. I did a whole big recording on that for Talking Wealth podcast, So people want to listen to that, they can.
Please go and listen to that everyone, and we'll get more into the kind of look ahead in a little bit. But you kind of broadened outlook a little bit before their dal with you know, talking about China. So I want to ask how have international markets performed? And I guess have there been any standout markets or perhaps underperformance abroad?
Ah?
Look, when you're looking at international markets, Tokyo or sorry, prepare, that's been the biggest market of the major markets. It's up nearly twenty percent this year. But everybody talks about the NASDAK, you know, and it's because of the magnificent seven you're in video that's up I think one hundred and I don't know, nine seventy percent or something this year. It's done spectacularly well. You know, the nikey is up over eighteen percent since one January. Again Japanese, so the Japan market's doing exceptionally well. But when you look at the broader markets, and as I said, you know, we're talking about the Nasdack's up nearly twenty percent, You're going to look at the Dow Jones and the Dow Jones is only up seven percent, and people go why, And it's simply because of tech stocks been pushing the US market. The US market's not a broad move up, even though the Nazdack's up nearly twenty percent. It's about those seven stocks. And if you look at the NASDACK of those top ten stocks, they make up a big chunk. They think it's twenty twenty five to twenty eight percent or something of the NASDAK. That's you in videas, your Microsoft, Apples and those other big tech stocks, and they're pulling it up. But we're not getting a broad movement in the US markets when we're looking at even the S and P five hundreds up. Sorry, sorry that when I'm mentioning those tech stocks in video nat if you look at the top ten stocks of the of the S and P five hundred, they make up twenty five to twenty eight percent of the S and P five hundred, and that's up sixteen and a half percent as we speak.
But we're not getting a broad movement.
But looking at Europe around seven point six percent, the Europe is going up, Singapore is only up six point eight two percent. So you're not seeing a lot of broad movement at all indexes across the world. I still think there's a lot of i won't say negative emotion, but very reserved emotions at the moment. People, you know, with the lag on from the COVID and then we've had a lot of sideways movements on a lot of markets. Our's been sideways for a couple of years. A lot of markets have been doing that. So whilst we've had selective movers being tech, I think we're not seeing a broad market move and I think that's what's coming.
Well, let's jump into that, Dan Dall, and you've already taught held a little bit about you know, Australian the Australian market, and also acknowledging that you don't have a crystal ball. I think that's always important to say. But how how do you think you know markets could fare in the coming months and the latter half of twenty twenty two? And again, what do you.
Think might drive twenty four times?
I do mean twenty twenty four. Yes, we haven't gone back into a time machine, listeners. I just struggle with these dates obviously.
Last side do I and people talk about this stock and I go, yeah, made a peek there and a trough there, So I get it. I really do get it. I think what we're going to be seeing is more broader. The market's going to start to move. Obviously, as I said, you know, our market has been this year, it's been financials driving it. I think the financials with our market specifically, will continue to drive the market. I'm just waiting for material sector to the bottom, which I think it should do in the not too distant future, find some support and start moving up. I mean like S thirty two, you know, a big top twenty stock. It tanked this week down ten percent because of a downgrade in earnings, but I love the stock. I'm thinking that's on a long term bull run. But the market's punishing stocks when they're coming out with slightly non positive news. But when you looked at the report, you know they've got increased sales and copper and other different areas, and they're just downgraded some of their earnings. Not a lot either for next year. But I still think that's a good opportunity for people to look at some of the stocks like S thirty two, like your Ford, s q's, your bhp' is your rios in that sector, because if our market's going to go bullish, like I expect, those are the stocks they're going to take the market. They're going to take the market up very very well. And I would expect we're definitely going to get to ten thousand points, probably by the end of twenty twenty six. Wow, that's that's my prediction. It's going to be at least a twenty percent gain. I reckon probably it could even get twenty five to thirty percent gain. So normally in the last phases of any cycle, because we know that there's an economic cycle business cycle. Listeners may have heard of the economic clock. I just interviewed an expert on the economic clock the other day, and we're thinking, if you know a bit about the economic clock, if we're about seven o'clock on the clock, which basically means interest rates will start to come down, and when that happens, stock market's going to shoot up. And that's what we're going to see because I think, and you've probably interviewed people on interest rates on here, but you know, we thought maybe September to December we'll get an interest rate drop, but if not, it'll definitely be the first quarter next year. And I think when we start seeing that, that'll be a catalyst to push our market higher. So I'm very excited about the market, as you can tell.
Definitely get out and I'm sure a lot of people will are listening will be very excited about the prospect of lower interest rates unless they have deposit accounts. That is, I know now that I have mortgage, I'm very excited myself to see race drop. So I think it's cross Daleen. You know, I appreciate that a lot of the time, these things are, as I said earlier, are noble. But are there any I guess, big events coming up that you've got marked in your calendar in the next few months that you think could impact markets, either I guess at home or abroad.
Look the big events. What you've got to look at. The big event that we're seeing right now is the US election. It is just and the whole world seems to be focused on Donald Trump, and whether you like or hate him is good for media. The media tend to love whatever it is. So, but the actual statistics are for the US election. And I did a podcast on this for Talking Wealth, our podcast with one of my other analysts. I think we did it in about February this year, and it was on how does the election affect the stock market? So the US election, So when you're looking at the US election, doesn't matter who the incumbent combent is whether it's Democrats or Republican, the market rises up into the election. An interesting fact when you look at the the year after the Democrats both markets. Who gets in where there are Democrats or Republicans, the market rises in the first year of their presidency. So we saw that with Donald Trump. But it doesn't matter whether your a Democrat or a Republican, the market will rise if you're if Historically, and we're talking about one hundred years historically, I think we've studied called twenty odd presidential cycles or something like that to work this out, and obviously the Australian market reacts as well. So to me, there's a correlation there between all of that. But in that first year, if a Republican gets into being the president, it's around thirteen to fourteen percent growth in that first year of the presidency. If it's a Democrat, it's over twenty percent. Think it's about twenty three percent really, so people might be praying for a Democrat to be in there. But basically Democrats are like our labor party in terms of they push more money into the economy and infrastructure projects, a character which boosts the economy a little bit more whereas the Liberal Party in Australi and do that as much. It tries to be more fiscally responsible, if that makes sense. So that's what I'm expecting moving forward, or the big event that I'm actually looking for. And the other one is interest rates. I think that's going to be a big catalyst for our market because we've got a lot of people at the moment. Can I say they're under mortgage stress others, you know, But to me, once that starts to relieve a little bit, that changes psychology because you only have to study Charles Dow and Dow theory, which Charles Dowe is obviously who the Dow Jones has made from, and he's created this Dow theory in phases of the market, and it's about we're in the last phase, all moving into the last phase of your farier. But to do that we have to change market psychology. So but you'll notice it on the street. First you'll see people a bit more excited, but it's also like a snowball. As the market starts to move and move up, more people get a little bit excited about it, and then it moves up and then more people get excited about it and then it moves up again and more people, but then start seeing the leveraging ticking in and people borrowing more money and using their houses to borrow money and other forms of borrowing to move into the stock market. So I was only chatting about this on our live show this week, actually our live YouTube show this week. But it is interesting and watching how this whole market's going to fold over the next you next two years is really exciting to me.
You've got me excited now as well. Dal This is fascinating. You could talk about this all day, but we'll come to the end of the show. So before we let you go, always like to ask when we're talking investing, do you have a tip or I guess, a piece of wisdom perhaps you'd like to impart for any of our investors listening. You know, it could be something that's about to come up in the Monster Kam, or it could be something more general. Whatever you're you're willing to share.
Look to me, it's you know, like I've alluded to. You know, there's we've got challenges at the moment economically, but you know you've got the Olympics happening starting tonight or tomorrow, tomorrow basically, So that's going to change some of our psychological it's more pappy. And if we get the war ending, that'll be also another good thing. China settling, that'll be a good thing. But I think moving on, moving into this last phase of our cycle to end, and that's always a big bullish phase. It's it's always faster and it's always more bullish than any other part. And what happens then is that people get a false sense of security, so that they think they know that they know because all ships rise on the same tide, so they'll be buying stocks thinking they know what they're doing. And this happened in two thousand and seven, and so I'd urge people to be cautious, get into the market, get ready to be in the market, do your research, but don't think you know it.
If that makes sense.
Make sure you get a good education, make sure you have some good rules around what you're doing. Because what I found in two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine, those people who read my book prior to the seven, the two thousand and seven peak, my book had to beat the managed funds by twenty percent. Those who followed it missed the whole crash, those who didn't got caught in the big dip, and that's what will happen. And so I'm going to see over the next couple of years people make a lot of money of the market, but then those who don't learn will lose a lot of that and some will go into.
Negative territory because they've borrowed a lot.
And then obviously as the market's crashing, lenders want their money back, so it causes a little bit of problem there. So over the next few years, just make sure you being real, not being emotional. That's probably my best piece of advice.
I love it. I love that little bit of positive you to start things off as well. So probably an excellent plans to leave things today, Dale, before we let you go, Where can listeners hear your voice see your face online? If they don't like to get any more of your excellent insights, they.
Can check out our website wealth within dot com dot au. There's all my articles on there. You'll find all my podcasts on there, but all our talking about podcasts are on iTunes and all the other things, all the other apps you've got all talking well, dot com isn't where I do a lot of interviews as well, with lots of experts in lots of areas, so it's pretty simple to find.
Me wonderful stuff. Well go check that out, listeners, and as I said, we'll all have to get you back on in another six months. Down for another check in, but until then, lovely to chat and thank you so much for coming on the show.
My pleasure Tom. Anytime you want me, I'm here.
We'll see you doing that. That's it for this episode of the Friends of Money podcast, but don't forget to jump on our website moneymag dot com dot Au for your daily dose of financial news including insights from Dale, or you can go grab yourself a copy of the Lady's edition of Money Magazine in all good newsagents. As always, Friends of Money will be right back in your podcast feed next week, so until then, I am Tom Watson.
Goodbye for now, thanks for listening to the Friends with Money podcast. For credible, independent and easy to understand financial commentary, visit moneymag dot com dot au. Please remember that the views and opinions expressed in this podcast are general in nature, and further independent advice and research based on your personal circumstances should be sought before making an investment decision,