Fox Sports RadioBrian Noe, Rich Ohrnberger, and Jared Smith talk about recent bowl action and how opt outs and the transfer portal have impacted these games, a wild day of bowl action, looking ahead to Saturday’s NFL action, previewing the next round of the College Football Playoff, and more! Plus, Parlay Platter, Prop It Up, Follow the Money with Seamus Magee, Rapid Fire, and more!
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We're here to break it all down. Yeah God, this is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by Bett emg App. No, we're live from your tail game. Here's Brian Nook, former Penn State All American, Rich Hornberger, and FSR betting analyst Jared Smith.
Oh, welcome in happy Saturday to you. Eight bowl games today, three NFL games. The ball buffet is in full effect. This is beautiful stuff over here. Good morning to you guys and Jared. Of course, I'm just curious up to this point, we've got four college football games that have been played, right, the first round of the playoffs is has come and gone. Any of the other bowl games, anything that stood out to you the most, that you've enjoyed the most.
Rich.
I know you were on the call of the Holiday Bowl where Syracuse went crazy and scored over fifty points against the Wazoo team that was basically not a Wazoo team anymore because of opt outs in the portal. What has stood out to you guys the most in Bull season so far?
Well, yeah, I'll start there with the Holiday Bowl. Yeah, I wasn't on the call this year. Our local station didn't get the rights, so I got to watch the game.
I thought you told us you were on the call originally.
Originally I was. Yeah, And so, like many things during bowl season, there was an opt out, you know, So it was I mean, legitimately, I'm one of the victims of the portal.
Now I'm kidding you did want to get hurt for countdown.
That's exactly right. I had to be here, you know, so I couldn't injured the voice. I still actually probably injured the voice because yesterday I was yelling and screaming and having an awesome time. It ended up being a really fun first half. Washington State showed some life, Syracuse pulled away like you figured they would. Com Accord had a day it was. It was a great bowl environment. But there was this feeling in the second half when the Cougar's kind of got dusted where I was thinking to myself like, yeah, this is a little bit of an example of what's happening across the country right now. You know, if both teams aren't bit by the portal bug, you know, if both teams aren't you know, visited by the name, image and likeness Fairry, then all of a sudden you have a really uneven matchup and and at some point somebody's gonna get found out. And Syracuse figured out the Cougars and it was all she wrote. The second half was a landslide, light interceptions, a lot of mistakes by the Cougars trying to catch up, and so it just you know, went bad afterwards. But listen, I think I don't think that's unique. I think we're gonna see a lot of that. I really do.
I'll be honest. This entire Bowl season has been fantastic. I mean it's been electric.
And I actually last night, because I knew we were gonna have a high level conversation about this, I went back and kind of crunched some numbers here.
So the average, So there's been.
Eighteen bowl games outside of the College Ball Playoff, right twenty two if you count the four CFP games. Let's just talk about the Bowl games for a minute, because I think there's a there's an obvious difference in the level of intensity that a collegeable playoff game should be played with. But what I'm seeing, what I'm noticing, is the bowl games are actually better games. And again for collegea wall playoff games, I think the next round of it will be better. But eleven to one score games out of the eighteen bowl games. The average margin of victory in these eighteen bowl games is eight points per game, which is essentially a one score game. And wouldn't you know it, the ACC and the Big twelve ozero to nine against the spread. Wow, can't make it up. Meanwhile, SEC, Big ten nine and three against the spread through the first little little sprint of games here, so it you can't kind of see the And this is the point where I'm like, all right, well, ACC down, are we going to fade in the rest of the way. Maybe same thing with the Big twelve, SEC Big ten. Obviously when they play each other it doesn't mean as much. But you can start to see, all right, maybe we were right with our conference alignments this year, and who's kind of latching into which category?
Yeah?
I love the unexpected and not necessarily opt outs portal, just maybe coming back down fourteen to nothing against Oklahoma, and you might have thought, Okay, I see where this game is going. And then the next thing you know, their quarterback is ripping off a ninety five yard touchdown run and you're like, what did I just see right there? It was funny, you guys would like this because I met up with our guy Bill Krakenberger on Friday morning and we're having breakfast and I had the game on my phone and I was on the under for the game, and Crack was on Navy. Plus four was the line that he had. So when Oklahoma scored what seemed to be a game tying touchdown with six seconds to go, I'm like, I'm dead. It's over. It's going to overtime. And Crack was worried about his plus four bet. And then Oklahoma lines up to go for two and we're like this, this would be perfect. This biales both of us out and Oklahoma, I'm sorry Navy calls time out and we're like, oh no, maybe Oklahoma's second guess is this? They think it through? They said, oh no, no, we got cold feet. Let's kick it go to overtime. They still went for two, which I love. They showed some stones and then they didn't get it, but it saved our bets, which is the silver lining, right, That's what we really care about here. And I have to rewind to the pit game. I won't give you all the stuff here, but what's worth noting. What were they doing here? What was Pitt doing? So it's the second overtime, Toledo kicks a field goal, Pitt gets a chance to win it with a touchdown. They get down to the one yard line, it's fourth down, and they said, you know what, let's tie it up with the field goal and go to the third overtime. So they could have gone for a touchdown from the one yard line, but they kicked the field goal and went for two from the three yard line the next door. It made no sense whatsoever. I wonder if Oklahoma watched that and said, if we're in that position, we're going for I really do wonder if they thought that.
I do think that sometimes these coaches watch games and are influenced by recent outcomes, because you'll hear occasionally a coach say, yeah, well, I mean you turn on, you know, the the Lions game, and you saw what they did, and we're like, well we could do that too, you know whatever. It may be. Like, it's it's interesting when when when you feel that, when when you feel like maybe something that happens early in bowl season, you know, the postseason where you know, the conversation around the decision making is wow, that's way too considerate conservative. It actually is the best thing to happen because then teams kind of wake up and get the message like dump out your playbook. What what do you I mean, what are we doing? You know what I mean, like, you're gonna we look, guys, we gotta we gotta see how we fare in the third overtime. It's like no, no, no, no. If you have the play, run it at the one yard line. Let's get this show going. Man. Yeah, I agree with you. I thought it was a strange decision at the you know, at the in the low red zone. You I mean, it's it's a bowl game. And I understand for Pitt against Toledo, maybe it's bad. Look if they lose, maybe you start overthinking the room. But I think that's a mistake when you think you stink in football.
There were some pit you know, super fans and reporters beat reporters that that wanted Penn State in the in the in the playoff on a neutral, like we gotta beating pet State at a playoff on a neutral. I swear, I swear that was the narrative, like six weeks ago when Pitt was undefeated, like that was the narrative. And I know, yeah, that's that's we're We're We're a long way from that pit losing to Toledo in that Bowl game.
I mean, listen, but that's kind of how the Bowl game. These games have been awesome.
I I really do think that.
And I know there's like, oh yeah, the nil and the opt outs and things that aren't is you know, aren't up to up to par when it comes to.
Our entertainment value.
We want to watch the best players in these games, but you're giving other people chances. And I think that's what we're seeing in in these lesser Bowl games as you're seeing a ton of opt outs still, but these rosters are deep enough where most of the teams have backup players that are at least competent, and they're giving us really good shows. They're going out there and they're like, this is our shot. What is the M and M song. One shot, one opportunity, and they're going out there and they are delivering.
And eight.
We have eight Bowl games today, the most in a day since nineteen ninety four.
So we are absolutely stacked today.
I think this is like the last real big Bowl day before we get to the next round of the playoff, and it has been. It's been really fun to watch anyone making the argument for less Bowl games. I just I don't think there is one anymore.
Our trusted technical producer, Chris Purfetts, He's grazing us with his presence already. This is nice you have Chris. Yeah.
I mean not only that, Jared, but we are getting the illustrious pop Tarts Bowl, which has become the pinnacle of Bowl trophy technology.
Last year cooking a.
Mascot into a pop in to a like human sized pop tart, and now this year, I believe the trophy is a working pop tart toaster.
That's correct, Like they are.
We are seeing kitch never before seen in this country. And that's really what ball season is about, is going to small locals, you know, getting integrated with the community and getting insane trophies.
I'll tell you what the like the frosted sidelines, It looks like sprinkles. That's a nice touch. That is a nice touch for the Pop Tarts Bowl. I also think this too. I think some of these bowl games after the first round of the college football Playoff have really helped. Like normally what you hear is who cares about these ball games outside of the playoff, And really this season it's been the opposite. Some of these non playoff ball games have sort of gotten us distance from boat Race City in the first round and some of the hideous arguments afterward. It's like the committee got blamed for everything, right, it was just like, guys, so old Miss should have been in with three losses, losing to Kentucky who was four and eight, and another unranked team in Florida, Like really, they what do we do? Why were there so many first round complaints? But I don't know how you guys feel. I think that, Hey, the Las Vegas Bowl last night with USC and Texas A and M it's a great game. Yeah, I think that just got us further and further away from that first round and some of the silly comments afterwards.
I agree, and I agree with Jared said, I think it's been a good bowl season so far. I'm looking forward to today. I think that especially since a lot of people, like, let me put it to you this way, there's a lot of people who, because of Caitlin Clark, all of a sudden, we're spending a lot of money betting on the WNBA. Are you telling me that most people know the WNBA better than they do college football? The answer is probably not, But it didn't stop them from spending their money. That's hard earned dollars, you know, being wagered on a sport that they have almost no basis of or base of knowledge with it. Like at least with college football, even if you don't necessarily know the players because of the transfer portals or opt out decisions that were made leading up to the game, you understand maybe the ethos of the coaching staff. You understand what their season looked like, what these teams have been through. You know. I think that's a bigger part of the conversation, and it's part of the reason why we're here every morning on Saturday. Because there's a lot of great betting opportunities as well for people during bowl season. It makes it it adds another layer of complexity, but also a much needed layer of fun to all of this. And I can tell you there were people coming up to me before the Holiday Bowl who are like, hey, I mean nineteen is a lot and I'm just like, yeah, but they lost a lot of players, Like you know, these conversations were happening, which is fun. You know, it kind of makes it more interesting for a lot of people. And so I I think that this week from the gameplay standpoint, tamp that down. And I also think that a lot of people get distracted with their own personal galaxies and environments going on where they're having their own wagering conversations about these games, are you know, what have you? Because that's what bowl season has become about. It's just one last lock at the lollipop, one more bite at the apple before football goes away for for its hibernation time, certainly for college football.
Yeah, and we're kind of in the in the middle of it. But I think the average the average Joe, the average Jane football fan like the gamification of sports, the gambling element that we obviously bring to the table. Gambling and bowl games are like peanut butter and jelly like like like, this is why gambling is great because you do have a lot of upheaval with a lot of these teams. But the number reflect as Rich said, is seventeen eighteen too many points.
It turned out to be right on the number.
Yeah, yeah, you know like that if you want to talk about a handicap, and that's the definition of a handicap is how many points or you know, if you're on the golf course, how many strokes do you need to give up in order to get you back to level par? Last night, seventeen was the right number with that Syracuse Wazoo game, And if you bet at early, you won because Syracuse covered. If you bet at late, you lost because Washington.
State was able to do just enough.
You know, I think that number closed like eighteen, somewhere in that range, But it was sitting in the in the sixteen and a half seventeen range for most of the week, and then on game day it jumped up, as we tend to see moves take place on game day when those limits expand. But bowl games and gambling, this is why we do what we do. Because for example, Harold fannin the other night in the Bowling Green Bowl game, he was twelve receptions shy of the all time record for single season tight end catches.
Guess what his receptions prop was? It was like nine and a half.
I mean it was like the perfect Yeah, and I wish I had more on it obviously because it was a winning bed as we always do. But there was no way he was getting less than twelve catches in that game. Like they knew what the number was and he was gonna get it, and you had a chance to bet it because the prop was below what his record was. So just finding those little opportunities, the ladders that we like to do. We had that woman can you with Quinn You weers a couple of years ago, and I wish.
I had one on fan in the other night.
But yeah, I feel like.
That was a missed opportunity on my and he was like five to one to get to.
One hundred and fifty yards and easily got there.
But yeah, I mean this is what we have eight games today. Every game has a narrative, has an angle, and we just have to find it.
Now, that's a great point about if you're not if there's no gambling line, there's no betting whatsoever. Syracusean Wazoo last night is a shoulder shrug r right. But with Hey plus seventeen, that's a lot of points.
You know.
Maybe at the US they get a block punt for a touchdown without fired.
A dramatic for some, for some, for some.
Absolutely, We've got Rich Herenberger, Ben State All American, Jared Smith FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian No. It's football time at betmgm. Use code countdown and receive up to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus bets if you don't win your first bet. When you're registered with bet mgm, you'll get instant access to a variety of parlay selection features, live betting options, signature bets, and the best daily promotions in the business. Download the betmgm app today or visit betmgm dot com. Use code countdown to receive up to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus bets. If that bet loses. We're off and running. Like the guys have said, we got eight Bowl games today. We will start previewing them. Will we see a new wave of what I call partial opt outs. We'll discuss that coming up. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by BETMGM.
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports Radio dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to listen live.
It is Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM all season long. Betmgm's offering you a second chance on your first touchdown bet in the NFL. When a customer plays an NFL wager on a first touchdown scorer bet and he doesn't score first, but score second, BETMGM will return one hundred percent of their stakeback in cash. Okay, So eight Bowl games on tap on this Saturday, and my first question in a couple of these games is are we going to see partial opt outs? Right? Think about some of these high NFL draft prospects and are we going to see, most notably Travis Hunter, Heisman Trophy winner there at Colorado. Are we going to see him play both sides of the foot. We're gonna see him play his normal amount of plays or is it not gonna be like is he a little bit on a pitch count? Is this business as normal or is it altered just a bit? That's a huge question. Shador Sanders cam Ward quarterbacks that are expected to go very high in the draft. Did they play the whole game right? So those are huge questions. Miami takes on Iowa State and Colorado is facing BYU. I don't care what you throw at me, like the handicap. If you're thinking about betting those games, begins with that. You have to begin with that, and how you gauge what you might see in terms of plays on the field. If Colorado is up by ten points, do they call the dogs off and Shaduur comes out of the game and maybe the back door is open with BYU. It's something that you have to keep in mind.
Yeah, you absolutely do, because coaches are going to take care of players because it's going to be part of the equation when play are being essentially you know, recruited in free agency. That is college football now you know, oh yeah, you got to go play for Dionna Colorado. He takes care of his players in bowl games. You know, he's not going to lambast his guys. You know, if he ends up sticking with Colorado, doesn't follow Shador into the NFL or what have you. All these coaches have that pressure on them. All of these coaches do. And so there's that part of the conversation. But then it's not just the team, it's the player himself. Who's your agent? Like, you're going to start hearing and Jared, you could tell me if you're already hearing this in Vegas, but you're gonna start hearing more and more people talking about who these players are represented by at the collegiate level and what that agent's normal tact is with his players, Like, Hey, this the player X is represented by agent HY, So you know that he's going to either a opt out before the bowl game or be on a pitch count because that's what he did with prospect X when he was on his way to the league to make sure that that player didn't get hurt. You know, I think we're going to start seeing a lot more conversation in the betting space around college football, start talking about who players are being managed by, what agency houses, and what agents, because that will have an effect. Like you said, Brian on the number.
Totally agree. I mean, there's no other way of putting it. Besides, now that we're in a new era of college football, the sportsbooks, the number, the market has to evolve as well. And that's why you see all this choppiness with these bowl games. It's because we were just waiting for the news, just like you are, and you know, we can start to glean what's happening. For example, I can tell you the Colorado number has kind of bounced around three, four or five most of the you know, when it opened at three, got bet up to five about a week ago, and then since then it's been kind of drifting back down to three. And that tells me that there is a lot of indecision in the market. There's maybe some rumblings that, oh, Travis Hunter's gonna plut oh, Shodorz Hander's gonna plut oh. And then we get to Brian's point, how much are they gonna play? I think that's the key here, And if you were gonna ask me the Colorado vibe, those kids are gonna play, but the first sign of.
Any kind of danger that could be the indicator.
And you could say the same thing about the the Pop Darts Bowl with cam Ward, like I know everyone wants to see the most exciting pop darts bowl in the history of pop darts, because that's that's what we get on these ball game days. But yeah, I could see a world where cam Ward's looking at the situation, He's like, yeah, my best tight end to Oroyo sitting this one out with Strapo, my best receiver sitting this one out.
I said, I was going to play.
Maybe I'll go out there, I'll take a few snaps, I'll see how I'm feeling, and then you know, once one of those Iowa state linebackers comes on a on a Mike blitz, maybe that's maybe that's when we shut it down for the day. So I think there there is a certain level of all right, if you get if you have a database of what the agents do, yes, that might be a leading indicator of what the number might do and maybe where the spread goes. But at the end of the day, it's an individual decision that these kids are making, and I think you have to handicap. You have to profile the player, profile the program. Yes, profile the agent and who he's represented by. But in general, it's it's case by case. It's situationally dependent. And we're gonna have two very interesting data points to add to the list today, how Colorado handles Sanders and Hunter and how Miami handles can.
Ward absolutely and I love the prop bets that are set at BETTMGM because it gives you at least a bit of an idea of what we might see today. For instance, Shadeur Sanders his passing yards prop is that at three eighteen and a half. Wow, So that tells you quite a bit. Like imagine if Shaduur played a half and you're betting the over or better yet, if you're one of these guys that says, I don't think he's playing the whole game, I'm gonna hammer the under, and a lot of people followed that. Bet MGM is not gonna be dumb enough to expose themselves to that type of setback. Meanwhile, the passing yardage prop right now for cam Ward is nonexistent. It is not red right there, right, And so you got to keep that in mind. If you it's like, Okay, if cam Ward only plays a half, do you want to be caught with the Miami ticket minus four and a half with Mario Christobal who's just trying to recruit you know like that that could be a rough situation to be in. And uh, maybe it's time to pounce on Iowa State after they got just rolled rolled by Arizona State and Scataboo. I think he's still running, but it might be a good by low spot for the Cyclones. It's something to keep in mind.
Yeah, yeah, it's an interesting situation. Miami's had a couple of opt outs on the offensive line, Iowa State has had a couple of opt outs on their defensive line. But yeah, when you make the comparison and you think about it, like Beckt has played a very you know, mediocre I guess compared to his freshman season to Ward who's had a phenomenal season. But yeah, by low spot for Iowa State, I could buy it because of the topsy turvy nature of this of this environment we're in bowl season. I mean I literally watched it last night in San Diego at the Holiday Bowl. Just teams unloading their playbook too. Like you have to also throw into the jumbalaya here that these coaches are like, I mean, we've got all these plays. It's not like we're gonna save Like, let's just call whatever's left, and you know, you'll see some fantastic stuff, you know, fourth down conversions made on plays that you'll only see once. You know, in twenty twenty four, because that was the only opportunity they had left to run it, and so why not. You know, I kind of love the looseness of bowl season and also with a little bit of the pressure off with an expanded postseason. Some of these coaches, obviously, like always in the postseason, in bowl season, they're coaching for their lives. Many of them are just trying to make an impact on the recruits that they invited to the game, the area recruits, or maybe the recruits who are watching from home. Hey, turn on the Pop Tarts Bowl. You're gonna see some fireworks offensively that receiver. Look at this guy number blah blah blah. That's gonna be you next year if you come out and play for the Hurricanes, you play for the Cyclones, whatever it may be. You know, boom, you start to show players who you're trying to you, you know, you know, waft into your program what you have to offer them by exposing more of your your playbook. I kind of love that, I really do, because again, it makes it so much more variable. And to Jared's point earlier, this is where you can find an edge, you know, this is where books can get a little exposed and you can find yourself a nice little edge, especially if you're close to one of these teams and you've been following them all season long.
Oh, here's the best edge in these games. And we've talked about it on this show before. We haven't done it yet this year. Maybe today's day. The best edge in these games the backup skill position players that get a chance to start. Their prop numbers are wrong. They're wrong, Yeah, because they've the books have not you know, had to price them like starters the whole year, and now all of a sudden they're getting starter reps because everyone else is out like those and the UNC backs a great example today. I forget the starter, who's who who opted out? He's one of the best running backs mari and Hampton, thank you the backup UNC running back today. If that guy, like if UNC plays a normal game script where they're favored in the game they're supposed to win, it's gonna be a low scoring game.
They're gonna run the ball.
If UNC does that today and you con can't stop it, that running back, I think it's like in the mid eighties today.
That running back is gonna have a huge day.
Yeah, that is a classic example and We also have movement right now, Right now, I'm doing a crack right now live movement in the Miami game.
Guess where the action's moving.
It ain't moving towards Miami, it's moving towards Iowa State.
You could tell you could glean.
About what is happening behind the scenes between Miami and Iowa State. Why the number all of a sudden went from four and a half to three and a half in the last five minutes.
You can take a guess why.
Yeah, Well, and that having no cam Ward passing prop bet posted is that's your indicator. Okay, that's telling me something right there for sure. And that's crazy too, because I think it's another reminder. It shouldn't be a lesson that's just learned. But there are times where sometimes you forget the stuff that you learned. Where if you think about a team, Arkansas is a good example. Arkansas lost a lot of starting talent a lot, and then last night, to Jared's point, you have these random skill position guys stepping up and all of a sudden, you're seeing like these long touchdowns against Texas Tech, and you look at some of the prop bets and you're like, wow, that wasn't expected. The reminder is there seems to be a knee jerk reaction of Team X has lost twenty five dudes to opt outs in the portal, Wow fade them. Meanwhile, it's not an automatic fade because some of these guys that are waiting in the wings, they're actually pretty good and they're super hungry because they've been waiting for an opportunity like this. So it's not automatically this huge step back in talent that it's perceived to be.
Yeah, yeah, listen. All I did my whole life was play on teams where I was constantly impressed with the depth of our roster because there are a lot of players who are gamers, you know, I practice because they're on the scout team and they're looking at cards and trying to feign the plays of the opponent that the team is preparing for that week. You know, either a, their effort isn't quite as high as it would be on a game day where you're repping your school or your the name on the back of your jersey or b. It's difficult, right, you know, because you're being asked to do things that are outside of your offensive parameters or defensive parameters to give a good show team look to your starting offense or defense. And then on game day, when you're actually running your offense or when you're actually lining up as a defensive lineman against you know, posing offensive tackles and saying, hey, seaball, get ball, all of a sudden, special things happen because guess what, all of those kids who are sitting backing up the stars on the college roster, they were also their local superstars coming out of high school ball. Or they were also the transfer portal picks and selections who came into a program and got narrowly edged out during the preseason, but continued working on their skills or getting stronger in the weight room, or doing all the things their coaches asked them to do so that when they get their shot, they'll be ready to play. This happens all the time at the collegiate level. This happens all the time at the NFL level, especially at certain positions tight end, running back, receiver. All of a sudden, like Jared said, these props, I mean, books have no idea because you're talking about the third tight end from Iowa State, because you know whatever, Yeah, I mean, like if you are a Cyclone fan, you may have the edge because you're like, well, remember that guy. He came out of the Iowa High school system and and he caught for a thousand yards his senior season and Montclair High, and well, guess what if you got a couple of dollars, you know, maybe maybe put it on the Montclair High tight end the stud that you liked who was a four star recruit on rifles dot com, Like it's that's where we're at, and that's that's where ball season can be magical for people who want to put a little scratch, you know, a couple of fun, fun, fun coupons on on their favorite tight end. You know, it's it's an interesting time to be alive and be a sports fan or sports better because there's so much more volatility than there ever has been, which I'm sure you know when or if we speak to Seamus later on, he'll speak to bull season. I don't know how he has hair left if he does, because I'm sure these guys are pulling their hair out.
Davon Gallas, here you go. Here's your story.
First game, by the way, it starts at eight Pacific, Like it's like in ninety minutes wed these ball games start. Javion Dalls, freshman running back UNC three star recruit at a shaman a Madonna Prep down in Hollywood. He's a freshman last year who's playing high school football. He's been sitting behind this stud running back for UNC all season. It's only had sixty two carries all year five yards per tote. Well, guess what his prop is today. It's like eighty six five yards per tote. He's the guy today if he gets fifteen to twenty carries at five yards per tote right against Yukon. Yeah, eighty five and a half yards is a discount. So again, you just have to find these guys like you just have to do the work. You gotta roll up your sleeves, you gotta get into the roster. You gotta look at the second, the third, the four string skill position guys, and you got to figure out if there's a narrative or an angle where one of these guys is gonna step up today and play way above any number he has put up at.
Any point during the regular season. And it happens a lot.
And then you at these star players like the Harold Fan and the tight end of bowling green who's going for a record?
Like those are the situations.
It's the sportsbooks literally handing you money the nine and a half receptions prop on Harold.
Fan and it hit it half.
He had it by halftime, Like there was never a moment in that game where that bet was losing unless he got fluke injury at some point, like that was the only scenario where they were not getting this. Dude twelve catches in that game. And daveon gals, if Carolina is running it today over Yukon left, right and center, who do you think is gonna be getting it? This freshman had Opallaca, Florida, who's you know, probably a pretty good player in high school down there in Miami. So you just have to remove what you saw during the regular season and put yourself in the minds of these players. Any what do you think Davion doesn't want to show off for Bill Belichick, who's no doubt watching this game on TV today, you think all those Carolina guys today that are on the sidelines that want to have a job next year are not going to be going.
Full speed for coach Belichick today. You're crazy, By the way, funny story with Fannin because I had his over receiving yards in that bowl game. And I was watching the game, but I was doing other stuff and I was glancing up. It was one of those things. So I had the game on, but I wasn't glued to the game, and I would see Fan and he would catch a pass and he'd maybe gain eight nine yards and I'm like, man, I don't know that's high. It was like one oh three and a half was his yardage prop something like that, and I'm like, a man, I don't know where we are. And I glanced up and it was like one hundred and five yards after the catch, and I'm like, oh my gosh, we're there already in the first half.
He went bl so mad.
I didn't ladder that, Brian. It was such a missed opportunity. Seventeen catches for two thirteen two thirteen. That's a tight end. I had the touchdown on top. It was insane. We've got Rich Ornberger, Penn State All American, Jared Smith FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian know, by the way, coming up next the parlay platter with a special theme to it. Again, let's get into this. We always love this theme. Tutty time baby, that's right, that is your theme. We'll have a selection each pull it together for a greater payout that comes your way. Next, it is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by BETMGM. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM. Every time you make a wager at BETMGM, you earn BETMGM rewards points that can be redeemed for things like bonus bets or converted to MGM rewards points that could be used towards dining shows and hotel rooms at over twenty MGM resorts. All right, let's do this.
Check this out parlay flatter.
Ah, yes, the platter, as the streets called this segment.
Right.
You know, we each have one selection for you. We pull it together for a greater payout. Jared, we start with you.
What do you like?
Well, you forgot the most important part for you. That's right time, thunny time.
I mean, listen, we're gonna our technical producer Chris provets that we've got to come out with some kind of peanut butter jelly time tuddy time songs.
Because I've got my own audio.
That's my first ever audio drop on any radio show ever.
I'm very proud of that moment. It's tuddy tuddy tunny time. It'syudy toundy time.
I love it, man, I love it.
All right.
Let's go Courtland Sutton. We have three NFL games today. Usually we don't get three on a Saturday. At three NFL games today Broncos Bengals, huge playoff implications for both teams. I think Courtland Sutton catches a touchdown. It's the highest total of any NFL game today. I think it's actually the highest total of the entire weekend in the NFL. It's up there at fifty nineteen red zone targets this year. He is the guy in the scoring area for the Broncos, a forty three percent target share in the red zone. If the Broncos throw one hundred passes in the red zone, he's be targeted almost fifty percent of the time.
It is really impressive stuff. He's one of the big bodies receivers in the NFL.
And the Bengals secondary bottom and passing yards allowed excuse me, passing touchdowns.
Allowed this year.
I'm sure they're not great in passing yards.
Either, so we'll look Portland something plus money on Courtland something today plus one twenty five.
I really like that bet.
It's been a heated race in the NFC West. You have the Rams Cardinals coming up later today. Kyn Williams, he's been kind of the rain maker in the low red zone. In the red zone overall, he's he's stolen fifteen touchdowns from the rest of his teammates. But Pukaakua has been a little quiet in the end zone as of late. I think it's time. I think he gets in. Unless the Rams build an early lead, I think they're gonna be chasing points a little bit. Like I said, this has been kind of a race in the West, So give me Pouka Nakua getting in the end zone at some point during this game one of Stafford's favorite targets.
I just thought, Bruce Buffer, when you said it's time, I heard in my head it's yeah, great, really well done. I'm gonna go Lejohonte Wester, the Colorado wide receiver today. He's got ten touchdown catches on the season, so we have decent odds that he gets in the paint. Anyway. It's at minus one fifteen and then we get the extra cherry on top, where what if Travis Hunter doesn't play his normal allotment of plays as a wide receiver today and it boosts Western's chances to get a touchdown here. I think that's in play. So even if Travis Hunter is there like he normally is as a wide receiver, we still have a decent shot Wester scores. Our chances are even better if you know Hunter's on a little bit of a pitch count. So I'll go le jhonta Wester for the Buffs to score a touchdown.
Yeah, like you like it a lot.
I like this parlay a lot too. Actually, on hammering this thing plus seven forty one, I bet mg on.
Ice that's a that's pretty good. That's okay.
Yeah, this plus money guys in there that'll do that'll that'll do it.
This Buffalo, This Buffalo a game where I should say this Colorado Bufflo game. I I don't know what to expect with Hunter, but I do know this. You could also grottle how much potential damage a player takes by not throwing it his way too, you know, so you know if there's any question whether or not Sanders could get him in trouble with a throw over the middle. Maybe he goes to a different option. Maybe Western is that option.
So I like that be a lot Niceah, And I would not be betting Travis Hunter propts today.
I just know I would. I would stay away.
There's other better bets to be made to me in on the board today, and especially in this Colorado game, Wester.
Being the guy. It's just only a little unfortunate due to the Christmas Day NFL doubleheader, we can't add Lamar Jackson to this three leg parla. You know, totally agree.
It's too bad.
That's a and he scored just salt the wounds, you know, he scored very nice. I don't think he will be I mean, you can make the argument it should be, but I think it's gonna be. Josh Allen, I agree, that's a fun combo. We can get into that. Yeah, second hour coming up next, we'll get into a bit of a big game preview double header on the way. What's going on. We are one hour away from kickoff here. Normally at this time of the show, we're two hours no no, no, we got ball and one hour from now. As Jared said, eight am West Coast start time. Huh, let's get after it. I love got some ball during the show, live updates and all that. It's gonna be fantastic. Listen, I'm a little bit torn because I'm a here and now type of dude, you know, and with eight bowl games, it's a little bit hard for me to look beyond the eight games that we have today. But listen, guys, we're not gonna be together until after the second round of the college football playoffs, right, so we got to dive into these playoff matchups as well. And what better way than to talk about your Nitney Lions.
Huh.
Penn State taken on Boise State. I looked it up the other day. The rushing yardage prop for Ashton Genty is one thirty five and a half and he needs one hundred and thirty two yards to surpass Barry Sanders for the most rushing yards in a single college season. You know, it's wild. I also looked up Barry Sanders in eighty eight and Ashton genty this season. They have on the dot the same number of carries three forty four. Like, I don't know, maybe you guys have heard, like, wow, Barry Sanders, he did it in fewer games. It's the same number of carries. Yeah, and genty is just one thirty one behind Barry Sanders, So it's it's a remarkable year that genty has said. Barry had thirty seven rushing touchdowns back in eighty eight. Genty has twenty nine, which is nothing to sneeze at genty. We know he's a tremendous player. The question is he's going to get his carries against Penn State. How effective is he going to be when Penn State is like, that's the guy, that is the guy, we have to slow down and not let him beat us.
I had the great opportunity and privilege to call a game that he played in and being on that broadcast, what it can tell you is you're not going to stop him. Your only hope is to slow him down. And what I mean by that is Boise is still going to possess the ball because they're going to get first downs, They're going to march the field on you. He is an unstoppable force. So you gotta find ways to force turnovers and get them into longer yardage situations if you want to steal possession from them where they have to rely on throwing the football where it's difficult even to defend that because as a play action, I mean, look, they're not afraid to run it on third and long, like you've seen throughout the season this year. So you have to respect the line of scrimmage with a player as dangerous as gent and in the passing game he's not all that involved, but when he is, obviously you get a playmaker of the ball in his hands. He's a problem. So how do you win a game like that, Well, you find a way to slow him down enough that they're not in the end zone constantly, and then maximize your possessions. But like I said, after watching this guy live and by the way, at the point when I got to broadcast that game, he was banged up and he still nuked the Aztecs when he faced them. It was it's just he's just that type of player. He can take over a game himself. When a game plan comes down to a single player, sometimes it makes life a little bit easier. It's like, Okay, as a defensive coordinat, what's the one thing we can't do well? We can't allow that guy to beat beat us. So when you're in the NFL and your opposing defense is one of the thirty one teams that's gonna face the Ravens. Just don't let Lamar Jackson beat you. It sounds simple, it's not right, But it's the same thing going against the Boise State Broncos. What's the one thing you can't have done? Have estingenty go off for two hundred yards and four rushing touchdowns. It's easier said than then, though.
Yeah, it's it's almost impossible.
And I went back and watched the game against Oregon and it Boise's game against Oregon, and it's.
Just what can you do?
I mean, you're watching a play and you know he got one hundred ninety two yards and three touchdowns in that game.
I mean, this is Oregon we're talking about here.
This is the twelve to zero best team in the country, undisputed number one. Right now, who's a dog in their first round game.
We'll get over there for quarter battle. Gay, We'll get to that in a little bit. Yeah, but but but.
But you watch the tape genty against Oregon, which is the best data point you're gonna find if you're asking the question, how will ash.
And gent fair against Penn State's defense.
And what I saw was, so there's eleven guys on the field, right, last I checked, what there was eleven?
Yeah, yeah, the other.
Ten guys maybe you know, the other six seven guys blocking for gent are.
Getting whipped, like absolutely whipped, like just.
Getting tossed aside by Oregon defenders, like blocks are being shedded. And what's Genty doing? Like teflon, He's just bouncing off people. He's superhuman. It's it's it's unbelievable. There was one play in particular where literally the entire play got blown up, like every single block was completely blown up.
Genty bounces off.
A completely open tackler in the hole and goes for twenty five. Like my point being, I don't know if there is a way to just say.
All right, we're gonna defend him.
You just have to let him get his Here's what you can't do, though, You can't allow Maddox Madson to beat you with the play action because that is what they want. They want you to get those linebackers all sucked in. They want to manipulate your eyes and then Maddox Madson is gonna hit you with a play action over the top the quarterback for Boise State. You take his play action numbers this year, pretty good, ten touchdowns, one pick without play action. He has sixteen turnover where he plays this year, fourteen of them are without play action. If you can get pressure on him and you could eliminate that play action advantage that Boise State has because you're so focused on Genty, You're gonna win this football game, but Genty's gonna carry.
It's like jump on his back.
Like what was that scene in the replacements, Like it's almost impossible to bring this guy down with one tackler.
It really was impressive to watch.
That's one of the things I love most about sports is when you know what's coming and you still can't stop it. Yeah, still can't do it. I had just had a Little league baseball flashback. Yeah, we're playing an opposing team and one of these guys gets on first base and he's like I'm stealing, and we still couldn't stop them, you know what I mean? Like it was just that good. But there's so many examples throughout sports. Mariano Rivera. You know the cutter is about to be thrown, you still can't hit it, and Boise State it's not like they have this prolific passing attack to complement Genty. You know it's gonna be a heavy, heavy dose thirty plus carries for Ashton Genty. And when it's all said and done, even against Penn State with NFL dudes, you might look up and be like, this freaking guy's still hit the over? How it could happen? I think the question for this game for Boise State against Penn State is how good is your secondary punch if you really need it badly? Let's say Genty clearly is not gonna be stopped, but let's say he's held in relative check. How good is the secondary punch? Do you have one think about Texas and Arizona State? That Texas defensive front is deep and way more talented than anything Arizona State has faced so far this season. What if Skataboo isn't doing a whole lot, how good is that secondary punch against a team like Texas? And so that's what I have in mind for Boise State and Arizona State, both heavy underdogs in their second round matchups. If their stud running backs are slowed down, how effective are they with their You know, if we're doing the pitching thing. Again, Let's say Mariano Rivera's cutter isn't working very well. You know, like, what then?
What then?
For Arizona State and Boise State.
I think that Boise State's I think that their passing game isn't completely complimentary. Obviously Ashin gent has taken up all the oxygen in the conversation for Boise State, but they have weapons. I was impressed by their overall offense over the course of the time studying Boise leading up to the game that I was on the broadcast for, because they've got a good quarterback and they have some good talented receivers around that team. But they're not going to get any publicity because of what Gentie's done this season, and understandably so, like you said, when you're chasing heroes of college football past, because your stud running back is having that kind of season, you don't really there's not enough room in the limelight for everybody. What I will say is it comes down to Penn State. It's so weird to talk about a team like Penn State who has real national championship aspirations this way, but they really are the team that cannot falter. They have to play turnover free football. I mean, that's the only reason why the Ducks a lot Boise State back in that game is because they coughed up the football a couple of times and that score got real close. And so if you're going to have a chance, or I shouldn't say a chance, but if you're gonna win this football game and you're the Nittney Lions and you want to advance from the quarterfinals, you gotta play mistake free ball. You cannot give the Broncos extra opportunities. You cannot cough it up. You can't give them extra possessions. Because again, even if you hold ash Gingentian relative check like you were talking about, Brian, there's gonna be long drives. So Poise State's gonna shorten this football game. The clock's gonna be running. And so if you give them a second opportunity or a second bite at the apple in the first half of the second, that may be it. That may be curtains for you. So when when we talk about the turnover battle in these games, and we talk about how important it is in certain games it's more important than others. It is a good indicator. It's not a one hundred indicator. But in this game, I promise you it will be If Penn State turns the ball over more than once. I mean, it is curtains for them, There's no question about it.
Yeah, I think, and we've seen this number, I would say kind of be relatively stagnant around ten and a half. I would see a few shops at eleven. Bet MGM right now is at ten and a half. That's kind of where the number's been. We haven't really seen much fluctuation. It's gotten to as low as nine and a half and then back up to ten and a half, but that's not a huge move the secondary key number of ten. So again, there hasn't been a lot of market decision on this game yet. My guess is with the game being played Tuesday night, you'll wake up Tuesday morning and this number will move in one direction or the other. My guess is it'll move back down, probably closing the ten nine, nine and a half ten range. But I don't foresee a huge move here. I think these teams are priced correctly. I think we know what Penn State is at this point. They're a team that their offense might actually be better than their defense at this stage. Like honestly, I honestly believe the Penn State defense, which has been fantast all year. They have great players, taking nothing away from it, but I think with Koto Niki getting long time to prepare, with Drew Aller announcing he's coming back next year, with the running game getting healthier with Singleton, I think there is a lot of positives about the Penn State offense and their defense has been just kind of steady all year.
They haven't they haven't had this elite I'd like the.
Numbers say they're elite, but I think when you watch the film, they don't have as many elite guys as they normally do up front. Although that Dennis Sutton guy, when he's healthy, you pair him and Carter together, that is a really good pass rush duo right there. So I think those are going to be the keys that defensive line, you know, setting the edge. We hear that all the time. It's really tough to set the edge on gent but on offense for Penn State, they could set the tempo in this game. This is not like the Penn State teams that I grew up watching when I was in college, which is you better play defense first, and then you have to hope it's a it's a twenty three to twenty game.
Penn State proved against.
Oregon they can win forty five to forty two, and that is not something that I want Ben State to do in this game as a fan, but it's nice to know that if this if we do get a little loosey goosey, well, the Nitdney Lions just showed against one of the best defenses in the country. They can go drop forty and that is a different vibe than what we've seen in years past with.
The Snidney Lions team. I'm just curious. You know we're short on time, but give me the cliffs notes version. What you think about Drew Aller as a quarterback right, Like, maybe not necessarily in this game against Boise State, but let's say they move on to the next round and you need a good amount from Drew Aller. But do you feel confident Is it more a Drew Aller thing or a lack of weapons to throw too? Because I look at it now, I'm not saying Drew Aller as a dud, but there are far too many times he'll have an open receiver. I'm like, where was that throw?
Dude?
Where was that throw? I'm just curious what you guys think of the guy.
My comp with Drew Aller is he's got some JJ McCarthy and him where he he's not, there's a ceiling. He's a little limited, but he's he's got moxie, and he's a gamer. When they absolutely need him, he finds a way. I'm not overly impressed with him from a standpoint of, like, you know the character profile and the ability, but there's a certain aspect killer instinct, if you will, that you need to have in a quarterback to close games, and I think he has it. I don't think he has it in spades, but there's some of that clutch factor and it showed up a few times when this team's needed him. Yeah.
And he's gonna get a third season to figure this out.
Yeah.
And I think that's the key is he has improved. I think he has improved. I think he's improved his confidence. I think he's improved his decision making. And the numbers say he is really effective when Penn State can run the ball.
When Penn State can run the ball and run play action off of it, he is very very dangerous.
He's not one of those guys I would put him in the Shador Sanders category obviously, or the camp Ward category, but I think he can be just as dangerous throwing the ball when he has an effective running game and he trust his defense. Like I think Penn State is, of all the teams left in the Collegeable Playoff, one of the more like balanced teams. Like they can beat you forty three forty if they have to, but they can also win twenty one to twenty. Like They've shown you that they can win in multiple ways this year, and the Oregon game was the big indicator. Like, I did not think Penn State had that kind of output in them, but if they do, they're a very different team.
Oh interesting stuff we've got. Rich Heinberger Penn State All American. Jared Smith, FSR Betting Analyst, Penn State class of oh eight. Oh wait, oh wait, in the house.
I'm trying.
No.
Make sure to check out the new looking features in the bet MGM app. It's fast and easy access to the sports you love, whether it's the easy parlay builder, teasers, live betting, the daily National Lions Boost, or the new bet slip layout. Use code countdown and receive up to fifteens back in bonus bets. If you don't win your first bet, download the betmgm app today or visit betmgm dot com and use code countdown to receive up to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus bets if that bet loses. All right, Coming up next, our main man, Seamus McGee. Huh, we'll preview as many games as humanly possible, and there are a lot of freaking games to preview. He's coming up. It's Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by BETMGM. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM. Throughout the entire football season, BETMGM will offer all different types of no sweat tokens. I be on the lookout for no sweat same game parlay tokens and parlay boost tokens just to name a couple, and be sure to follow BETMGM across all socials at BETMGM. All right, let's do this.
Follow the money, real good money.
We're following the money with our good friend, Seamous McGee, team Lead of Sports Trading at bet MGM. Good morning, Seamus Ball buffet is in full effect eight bowl games today. I'm just curious if you look at not necessarily today, maybe college football playoff games. It's probably a better question for the opt out type bowl games and the portal type bowl games. Is there a line where you're just like, I have no idea, I have no idea it's the better side to take based on all the variables here? Is there a game like that for you?
Hey guy? It's great to be back, and I mean I can pick a game out of a hat, I probably and frueless as to what it is. These games are so hard me cap you could really make an argument for I think any sign on the boy today in these bowl games.
That's right to pick.
Fight to pick one. This U n C minus two and a half against UKNDA day up in Boston. I mean a lot of important opt outs for you and C on their offensive side, but there's still against a UKON team that you have to think is really going to try to win this game, So that one I just have no idea where to go there.
Yeah.
Again, it goes back to just if you feel like you watch these teams very closely and you know the second, third, fourth string guys.
And you know there may be a little bit underrated.
I think the prop market is especially a place people like to gravitate towards with those angles. It just feels like it feels like the beginning of college basketball season for you shamers, where you're really scrambling just to figure out what the best number is. And we see like that's Syracus WWAZU game last night. I mean, what was a thirteen to fourteen point move and you ended up being right on the number where it was supposed to be at the end. It's funny how that works out.
Huh yeah.
I mean it's just one of those things where you've just got to trust the respected money that comes in because at the end of the day, like there's so many there's so many guys, a true rushman who are getting their first snaps of the year playing today, Like in this UNC game, Omar and Hankins out, so we have a true freshman going in today. So you really just got to follow the money here, see what the shops are saying, and then just got to do your best. The same line with the sharp numbers.
We have all these sides and totals and bowl games to distract us from the futures market. Is there any value right now in taking a look at the national Championship futures and throwing a little scratch there, like plus five point.
Fifty for example of Penn State.
Yes or yes, Seamus, Yes or yes.
I'm with you guys. On Penn State. I still think there's some value there. I mean, they should win against boys and next week that should be gained. They win, I think pretty handily, and they get the winner of Ned Name, who I think is very similar to the note Name's get a little beat up on the defensive side. Or Georgia team who doesn't have their starting quarterback and this feels like a different Georgia than years past. I think the path really, you know, tends to have some value on Penn State here.
Man, can you imagin let me just throw this out in the universe. I just as you said that, Seamus, I thought of the nickname of small game, James. Imagine if Penn State made it to the final like the championship game and got rolled like it's a permanent nickname if that's right, but or is at least a path to that possibly happening? Uh, let me ask you though. Of the four playoff games second round, here, is there a line that you like the most on a side? Anybody stand out to you?
First of all, I say Pencer gets the Championshi game, it loses and gets routed. A damn shame because according to ESPN, you won't ever be allowed back. So what to deal with that for the for the coming year? But yes, right the playoff game. I love the Irish this week, either them or I show of Ohio State minus two and a half. I think this Ohio State team is better than Oregon. I would bet this up to three and a half. Honestly, I think, God, I think this team after that Michigan game, they're on a They're just on a one way past the final. And I really do like ner a name touching point and a half here as a Nering fan for a while. This team feels a lot different than the makeup of a lot of other NERD etees I've been in the playoff. This is the most confident I've been in the nerdn ame teams to stand toe to toe with an SEC game.
I agree.
I went back and watched the film on Indiana and I was I was wildly impressed. With a lot of the the interescase. I know, the score really pops out at you in that Notre Dame game, and the Jeremiah Love play really pops out of you. But some of the nuance to what Notre Dame did in that game was really high level. And they might be they might be more equipped, better equipped than Georgia to make a run in this cultural playoff. And I agree with you on Ohio State too, and the market, like this is one of those examples, Like I call it a Vegas nose game. We've talked about this multiple times on the show. Vegas Knows. You have the number one seed, undefeated, they haven't lost the game all year, the Oregon Docs.
And they're an underdog in their first collgeet ball playoff game.
Like it just it just screams at you that the market is kind of sniffing out that Ohio State's the better team here.
This Ohio State team you go by, you know, market ratings, strength to schedule of justice. This has been by far the highest the market spy on a team this year, uh, you know, season all season long. So I think Ohio State, I think this is I think that Michigan is a little bit of a wake up call for this team, and now I think they're just really really interesting to make things right for leaving that game.
Yep, Seamus, you know this is more opinion based, less about you know, the sportsbook, but maybe you could tie it in somehow. It's just a curiosity and we haven't discussed this yet. Bull burnout and what I mean by that For some of these teams who are going to make a deeper run into the postseason. As college football's postseason has been expanded all these bowls, they want to have their celebrations and events that they're inviting the players to. These coaches have to be protective of the fact that this isn't a vacation. They're on the path to a national championship, but also be respectful of the fact that some of these bowl games that they're playing in have a lot of pomp and circumstance and a lot of traditions surrounding them. Do you think it's possible we're going to see some of these games be affected by that, you know, some of these players tiring out from all the travel, the fact that they'll be on site at these bowl locations for longer than normal road trips. Could that have an effect on the number in the end when you go to handicaps some of these games later on.
I think it more is a war of ATTRITIONI like, you got Ohio State Oregon playing in the Rose Bowl like that is just an awesome game in an awesome setting, and I feel like the players are going to be very aware of that moment. But this is I go back to Penn State, whe It's like, Okay, you get and at home, take care of business. Then your second round game, you got Boise State should be taking care of business. I know with Fiesta Bowl and whatnot, but I think they're they're there to take care of business. And then on the other side of the bracket you have Oregon, Texas and Ohio State and you're just gonna watch them beat up on each other. Yeah, and that side of the bracket. And then the next game you get a Georgia team that's a little banged up, a nerd, a team that you can really go toe to toe with. So I think the three you have to look at more of the you know who's playing who going into that, And I think it is a war attrition and you see it in the FCS playoffs most years too.
Well, that might be a good segue too. I don't know if you're going a couple of weeks, yeah, fbis, where are you going with us today, Seamus.
I'm gonna need a little bit of least share, guys. So, Christmas and New Year's synonymous with Bowl season. You got the Christmas a NFL games, you know, the end of the NFL. But for me, Christmas and New Year synonymous with the International Ice Hockey Federations Under twenty World Championships BET are known as the World Juniors. For those who weren't paying attention, last night, we just saw a lot getting seven goals, a forty to one underdog take down Canada, the whole life country, and a shootout forty to one under And today they need to get backed up and at three point thirty they have to play the tournament favorites, USA, who have a day of rest. I spy with my little eye a USA minus five and a half over there, A lot of places have six or six and a half. I love USA minus five and a half. It's a It is a tough team. Just wake up and it's like, oh now we just gotta play USA again. I think USA is really gonna I think it's gonna be allowed. I think USA beats him pretty bad. It's a tough it's a brutal spot for lot Via. But this is a really good USA team with really good NHL prospects on them. I think they I think they win by at least six or seven goals.
Man, I'll tell you what, you are a treasure day. It's a brutal spot. That's the line of day.
And if you can't find that, if you can't find that, just take Chris bearing this money Linepmphis.
There we go, lord spot for a lot There you go, Samus, you're the best man.
We appreciate the time and enjoy the ball weekend and the hockey weekend too. Apparently, man, we'll catch you soon.
I have a good one guy there.
He is Seamous McGee, team lead of sports trading at bet MGM. I did not foresee that one. That is that is a call right there? Wow, lot Via fatom fadum against the US and hockey.
Little little puck talk here.
Yeah, you're laying five and a half goals in a hockey game. I mean, I'll be honest, that is not an easy bet to make. But I give Shamus a lot of credits, major onions.
He gave us a reason to pay attention to that game. I'll tell you that much. Okay, So now this this question might come from left field, but let me explain a little bit. Let me take it to the NF okay for a little while here. So the Seahawks beat the Bears on Thursday night six to three, and I just started thinking about this with Caleb Williams. Where you're at with Caleb Williams, the Bears quarterback among all the other rookie quarterbacks in the NFL and the second year quarterbacks in the NFL. So here's the question. That's where it came from, right, So I'm thinking with the rookies and the second year NFL quarterbacks, we're looking at young, young NFL quarterbacks. How would you rank your top three in terms of who you think will turn out to be the best players over the course of their careers. I think it's an interesting exercise because you look at some of these first and second year guys. Who's your top three among Caleb Williams, Jaden Daniels, Drake May Pennix Junior. We haven't even seen JJ McCarthy, yet you've seen bo Nicks and then second year guys Bryce Young CJ. Stroud. If you're looking into your crystal ball and saying these are going to be the top three players from these two draft classes, what does your top three look like? Rich will start with you. What does your top three look like in terms of first and second year quarterbacks who you think will be the best over the course of their careers.
Are we including Jordan Love or does he get factored.
Out he's way after Yeah, yeah, just.
Making sure because it's his second year starting, but he's obviously been no longer. Okay, So with this list without him, here's the way I go. I kind of break it into categories. So Jaden Daniels, bo Nicks very very impressed with their progression, obviously with their immediate impact on the squads they came to, and I think they're in good situations right there on that list as well. CJ. Stroud obviously, so I would say that rounds out my top three. CJ. Stroud. I had questions last year whether or not his sophomore performance could match his freshman and I think those doubts were warranted because we've seen a much different looking CJ. Stroud this season than last. Then I moved down the list into like the bad situation group. That's where I put Kayleb Williams and Bryce Young. I think they inherited terrible situations. Bryce Young with the fluctuation at head coach front office and the perceived fluctuation at head coach front office for the Bears coming up for Kayleb Williams, Will Levis, I mean not interested, bad decision maker, Anthony Richardson, Jamis Winston comp just a lot of talent, great arm strength, athlete, big guy but can't stay healthy, and poor decision maker. And Pennix Junior just not enough information. So I'm gonna say top of the list Jaden Daniels, Bo Nicks, and c J Stroud. C J. Stroud got lumped up in his sophomore year. We'll see if he can finish strong.
All right, correct me if I'm wrong here.
This is the pool of names, because I'm just trying to frame this conversation. This is the pool of names we're picking from Levis, Caleb Williams, Anthony Richardson, O'Connell, Bryce Young, CJ's Drout, Dan Daniels, Nicks, Drake May, Pennix, Rattler, McCarthy. Obviously, those last two are kind of on the caboos end. That's the pool.
I'm not missing anyone, right.
Yeah, no, one of note knowing you know, like Hindon Hooker would be on that list, you know I would obviously, but yeah, he hasn't seen the field yet.
Yeah, I do love jayde Daniels one. I'll go surprise here too. I'm going Drake May too. Okay, I have been wildly impressed with what I've seen from Drake May. And the reason why I'm impressed is twofold a he has like Larry mow and Curly at receiver.
Like it is, it is a disaster. It is a disaster.
Skill position group for the Patriots arguably the best or excuse me, arguably the worst in the NFL.
Secondly, his coach, who.
Was supposed to be a defensive minded head coach, has forgotten how to coach defense. So already you have a rookie quarterback thrust into the spotlight, was not a starter from day one, ascended to the starting job, has no receivers, has a good running game, no offensive line, and the defense is a bottom ten unit, and that quarterback has actually performed statistically better than most of other quarterbacks in the NFL since taking that starting job. More he's better than fifty percent of the other starting quarterback in the entire league, not just the rookies in the second year guys, the whole league. So that's why Drake May's number two on that list.
For me, three is tough.
Obviously CJ.
Stroud deserves a lot.
Of recognition, but he has fallen off the map completely, and I think it's a little bit of decision making, it's a lot of offensive line, and it's even more injuries and just sophomore slump like it like, it's all of those things combined. But I think because of the accolades that he was able to do one and where he's at now with his development, I still think he deserves to be in the top three. After that, it's a whole mess of nothing. I put Bryce Young on the maybe list. I put Caleb Williams on the maybe list. If the Bears can hire a head coach who can you know, groom him and Michael Pennix, I think could take a giant step forward on Sunday Night if he can figure out a way to beat Washington or at least keep that game close. Obviously, bo Nicks needs to be on the list too, But I think my one two three is Daniels may Stroud.
Yeah.
It's pretty crazy with with Stroud, where I'm just looking at his passer rating, his passer rating, he's looking up at Cooper Rush. Yeah, he's looking up at Caleb Williams, who's a rookie. So it's he's absolutely regressed. And some of it's just lack of accuracy. That's what's so stunning. Where last year he was so accurate and this year you watch him on Christmas Day against the Ravens and you're like, the guy was wide open. What happened? You know, Like it's stunning to watch. Okay, So just to reset it. If you're joining us late, you're like, what are these guys talking about? So we're looking at first and second year quarterbacks. Okay, we're ranking who we think will be the top three in terms of the best players over the course of their careers. Okay, And so we're on the same page. As far as Jayden Daniels goes, I would have him number one on the list. His numbers are comparable to Josh Allen, the Bulls quarterback who is the favorite to win MVP. When you're a rookie and you're putting up numbers that rival the potential league MVP, you're a special player, and we've seen it from Jayden Daniels. He's a playmaker. I put Caleb Williams number two. The guy has all the ability in the world. He had Matt Eberflus a lame duck head coach. Now he's on an interim head coach. He doesn't have a great offensive line. You put Ben Johnson over there, get an offensive coach that helps him out quite a bit. Look at Sam Darnold and Minnesota right what coaching can do for you. I'm not selling Caleb Williams stock at all, and I'm not selling my CJ. Stroud stock at all either. Where he was so special last season. I don't think he's just forgotten how to play quarterback. I would put him number three. Would it shock me, Jared, if Drake may turns out to be one of the top three from these last two draft classes, not at all. Would it shock me if one of these guys that we've hardly seen at all breaks the top three. No, but as of right now, that's what I expect them most for.
If you could pick one, you were drafting one today, you had a list of all of them, who would you pick?
You picked Daniels, I would take Daniels, but I would be tempted with a couple of the other quarterbacks because we have such a small sample size, you know. But look at Stroud. He got off to a great start. Where is he now? RG three got off to an amazing start with and when Stroud.
Thing is weird because he's like such a good, like accurate passer, and like the accuracy's just completely fallen off the map.
It really has. Yeah, it is stunning. Hey, our thanks to Rapid Radio is the official communication device of Fox Sports Radio. Rapid radios are instant push to talk walkie talkies, offering national LTE coverage and no subscription or monthly fee. Business owners can keep in touch with up to two hundred staff at one time, and it's a great alternative to a mobile phone for your kids. Go to rapid radios dot com now for sixty percent off and free shipping. Use code Radio and get an extra five percent off. We've got rich heron Berger Penn State All American. Jared Smith, FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian Nell coming up next. Ah, Yes, the cool waters of prop it up Lake. Huh. We go to the prop bet market.
I don't know.
We'll compare notes. Yeah, lot NFL college, lots to do here, we'll look at the props. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by BETMGM. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM. Once a day, Monday through Friday, play the free to play BETMGM Ultimate Teams with to receive an Ultimate Team's card with the pro football team and spread. If that team covers the spread that NFL week, you can win prizes. Play every day Monday through Friday. Have all five of your team's cover and you're eligible to win bet MGM's weekly Jackpipe. All right, let's do.
This prop it up don't player plays?
Okay, we're looking at the prop bet market. Jared, We'll start with you.
What do you like?
Yeah, let's go to this Miami.
Iowas thinking because I do think there are some bets to be made on the Miami side, even though we are a little bit uncertain about Cam Whart's status. And we know Xavier Verstreppo probably won't play. The tight end to Royal probably won't play either. That is two of Cam's biggest weapons, but it's still relatively high total in the game. And what do we know about Iowa State based off of what we watched in that Big twelve championship game. Well, they like to play that weird three three five defense, which usually allows the running game to be featured prominently.
We saw Cam Scattaball run absolutely wild.
So where am I going here?
Damian Martinez, who's trying to improve his draft stock, is going to play in this game. He is the running back for Miami and he is a very reasonably price mine is won twenty five to score a touchdown in this game, So.
Let's go Damian Martinez.
Didn't put him in tunny time, but we'll put him in profit up minus. Won twenty five on the touchdown prop today for the Canes against Iowa State.
All right, I'm sending you to the NFL Chargers Patriots. Lad mcconkee favorite target of Justin Herbert for the Chargers rookie wide receiver. He's on pace to break a bunch of rookie records for wide receivers with the Los Angeles Chargers, and one of the streaks that he is now etched himself in the record books is an eight game receiving streak where he is caught for over fifty plus yards. He ties Odell Beckham Junior last week. I think he continues today against a weak Patriots passing defense. The numbers set at seventy three and a half yards. Give me the over there, lad McConkey, going over seventy three and a half receiving yards against a weak Patriots pass defense.
Okay, all right, like what you're thinking, I'm gonna go back to college here. Let me go with this is the guy of the day for me. Man Colorado wide receiver Lejhonte Wester, I'm gonna take over seventy seven and a half receiving yards again. You go back to Shador Sanders. His passing prop is at three eighteen and a half, right, so he's expected to throw for a good amount of yards. And I'm just wondering with Travis Hunter if he is playing wide receiver throughout the entire game like he normally would, I don't know that he will be And so if he does, we still have a shot to get there with Wester. And if Hunter is on any sort of pitch count doesn't get his normal reps, that helps Wester even more so. Getting to seventy eight receiving yards absolutely in play for Wester. I like the over, give me over seventy seven and a half for Wester buffs receiver today against BYU, and this game starts in like five minutes.
But I did bet the over on this UNC running backs prop today, the one I was talking about earlier. I forget his name on top of my head, but I did bet it. I pull it up right now for it. I honestly forgot it.
So I did a little I did a little mini SGP.
Geist that's his name, Geiss over eighty six and a half rush yards paired with a touchdown. It was like plus one forty.
Okay, you go up on it starts is we're officially betting when we're like, I just took this, Gosh, I forget the guy's name, you know, yeah right now?
So many games today, guys, I'm out the trouble keeping track is.
I knew exactly who you were talking about, Goss.
Yeah, I'm gonna need some pause after this, no doubt.
All right, coming up next? Is this a Vegas nose game or a complete change of tune? Oh, welcome in here. The ball buffet in fall effect. Eight Bowl games today, three NFL games on a Saturday, and listen, we'll get to some of the Sunday and Monday slate, some interesting games as far as that goes. So a preview city here today on countdown. Let me throw a couple other college football playoff games at you, because look, we're not going to be on before these games and they're just a couple of days away. So I just want to throw Oregon and Ohio State at you because Jared mentioned this a little bit earlier. Ohio State favored by two and a half. The eight seed is favored over the one seed by two and a half, and it's like, wow. The thing is, look, Ohio State might win the game, Ohio State might cover. But to me, it's just crazy how quickly things have changed in terms of how Ohio State has looked at It was just a couple of weeks ago Ohio State embarrassingly lost to Michigan. They're favored by almost three touchdowns and they lost at home and all you heard was Ryan Day sucks. This Ohio State team sucks. What an underachieving bunch of dopes, that sort of thing. And they beat Tennessee and now they're favored against Oregon, a team they lost to. I'm like, what is happening again? Ohio State might be the right side, but the tune has completely done a one eighty for that Ohio State program. It's wild to me.
That's why you have to ignore the narrative and you have to watch the football because it doesn't matter what the media thinks about Ryan Day or who needs to be fired and the loudest voices prevail in the media world. What prevails in football is logic and common sense and better players are better strategies or potentially where games are being played neutral site this time around instead of Audston Stadium. Okay, that game was that sixty three points scored in that game? Oregon. They've been balky on defense against some of the better competition that they've faced over the course of the season. At least thirty one points scored against them by three of the teams remaining in the field Penn State, Boise State, and then obviously Ohio State. I mentioned it was a bit of a barn burner, and I'm expecting the same thing this time around. Now, I will say one edge that Oregon has developed since their last meeting with Ohio State the fact that Dylan Gabriel has only gotten better, more confident, and comfortable at quarterback. But Ohio State also has built some confidence along the way too. I think the fact that this game is going to play be played on a neutral field. The spread and the side and which way the number is facing makes sense to me because it's tough to beat the same team twice, especially a team that went toe to toe with you in your home field. I like Ohio State in this one. Right now, we'll see how I feel as we got closer to kickoff.
Yeah, so the I went back and watched the Oregon Ohio State game this week.
A couple things stood out.
And I don't want to make a lot out of that game because obviously both teams are different then, but it's just it's just the defensive line for Ohio State I think played a lot better than the final score indicates.
And this is a defensive line. This is a defense in.
General that has dudes, and they played together upfront, and I think that is the scariest thing for an Oregon offensive line that when I watch their games this year, when I turn on the tape against Penn State, the one thing I noticed about the Oregon offensive line is they're good at creating creases with their scheme, but they're not good at pushing people around.
They're not the biggest, they're not the strongest, but their.
Scheme is elite, and they get you to the edge and they crease you in and they cut it right back up and they've got back and they've got accurate quarterback, and they've got receivers who can you know, make plays like they have all of the tools you need to be a good offense except bully ball. They are not gonna just line it up and smash mouth you. So the question is ken Ohio State, which I think their defense has besides that game against Oregon which.
They got beat deep a few times.
Tez Johnson, listen, he's a rockstar, guys. He's gonna make a lot of really good defenses in the NFL. One day, I think, look that foolish. But this Buck Guys defense, I do think at their core that was a tough environment on the road at Austin. This will be a neutral in the Rose Bowl place they're very familiar with, very comfortable with. I think their defense is going to look wildly different in this game. And Caleb Downs like Caleb Downs in that game against Oregon. And again, I know Oregon scored thirty plus and they won the game, but you turn on the tape and you watch Caleb Downs.
This guy from the safety position is like.
Running up like a heat seeking missile to the line of scrimmage. Take it on three hundred pound lineman. The dude's like six ninety pounds. So I think that is where Ohio State has an edge in this game.
I do think they.
Are more physical than Oregon at the point of attack, and I think if they can shut down the run, this is going to be a tough game for Oregans offense.
I think that football listen, there are just so many players and there are so many things to look at with just a particular team. Ohio State is a great example where after a loss to Michigan you can focus on the negative things. After a win against Tennessee you can focus on the positive things, and you can make sense doing both. You know what I mean, but it can be an overreaction on either side, where like both things can be true at the same time and both can be a bit embellished at the same time. Where after Michigan is just like what the hell? And then after Tennessee it's wow, look at these wide receivers. Wow, look at this d line. Wow, look this talent every freaking wear on this Ohio State team. They could win it all. Like, it's amazing how the same team this is the course of two games, two games and the tune is completely flipped. And I'm not saying it's wrong. I'm just saying it is very interesting that this is the case. And you can do that with a lot of football teams in the NFL or college football. You can focus on the good, you can focus on the bad of the team because most teams have both.
Yeah, yeah, listen, I think that I think that every team's gonna have their wards, you know what I mean. You're going to be able to draw back moments like Michigan for Ohio State, like Northern Illinois for Notre Dame, where you're going to have moments blips on the radar where you can say, yeah, but what about Dot dot dot.
Yeah.
I mean, but the what abouts sometimes make up life fright or sometimes tell the whole story. And sometimes they're exactly the way I described them. They're just blips on the radar, especially in football, a sport where we know it doesn't make sense sometimes that Appalachia State could go into the big House and win, that Northern Illinois could take down a Notre Dame team that's vying for a national championship. But it happens, It happens, and it happens all the time in this sport. And so either you could get hung up on one data point, or you could look at the wider amount of information that you have and look at two teams more evenly. Again, the Michigan loss is closer in the rear view than, for example, the comparison I was making to Notre Dame. So I understand that taste hasn't been completely washed from the mouth. I get it. But this is the team today, or I should say, that will line up against Oregon is not the team that lined up against the Wolverines, is not the team that lined up against the Ducks all those weeks ago. It's a completely different team.
I am just so glad. I'm not a head football coach at area.
I mean what and.
I've been told in life you ignore everything before the butt. Ryan Day is a great coach, but you know, he just struggles against Michigan and you know, or you could flip it.
You could flip it.
Ohio State's a great football team, but I don't trust Ryan Day, right, Like, which side of the argument are you on here? Because I've heard two very strong arguments over the last month. I've heard Ohio State is the best team in the country, but they have one.
Of the worst coaches.
All right, Well that that can't be.
True, right, or you flip it.
Ryan Day is a terrible football coach, but his team is really talented.
Well what am I ignoring here?
Like both Like, both of those things maybe can be true, but the higher believe that we like to use it with, I think is where we get twisted and recentcy bias. I say, this all is a hell of a drug. It is a hell of a drug. Ohio State looks terrible against Michigan. The sky's falling. Ohio State looks great against Tennessee. They're winning the national championship. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle, and maybe they do win the national championship, but they are not going to look that dominant like they did against Tennessee in this game against Oregon, and then the opposite is going to be true. They are not going to look as lifeless as they did against Michigan against Oregon. You're never as good as your best data point, you're never as bad as your worst. But we've got to talk about something the next day on the morning talk shows, and we need to sell, right, We need.
To sell newspapers, we need to sell records. Sex sells.
Ryan Day having a bad game against Michigan doesn't sell Ryan Day being the worst coach that Ohio State's ever had sells a lot better for the for the narrative. But the truth is they are an unbelievably talented team if an incredible amount of brain power in their coaching room. I mean, Chip Kelly was in his bag against Tennessee and maybe he was saving a little bit, maybe he knew, maybe he thought, hey, we could beat Michigan with one hand tie behind our back. We can't do that against Tennessee. We can't do that against Oregon. Let's save the good stuff for those games. And Will Howard was in his bag too. That's another part of this equation we haven't even mentioned yet. Will Howard playing like I mean, that was like the best game I've ever seen.
Will Howard play right? Can he do that again in the Rose Bowl against Oregon?
If he can?
Man, I'll tell you what, Ohio State should be the favorite to win it all.
We got a lot to get to. I'll tell you what we'll We'll break early, will be all about clock integrity as good little hosts here on countdown. Huh. And then we'll come back and we'll talk about one certain team where I might be rocking a T shirt of this certain school from the town.
You know, they have a.
Game going on against they call him the dogs. You know, you know we gotta get that game for sure. We've got Rich Oiinberger, Penn State All American Jared Smith, FSR betting analyst, I'm Brian know. Throughout the entire football season, BETMGM will offer all different types of boost tokens. Be on the lookout for a same game parlay boost tokens, parlay boost tokens, and odds boost tokens each NFL weekend. It's a key to a win for one of the college football playoff teams also will look to the NFL. There's a complete lack of respect for one squad, one squad, I believe, and man another game. What a difference a year makes for these two teams who will face each other. Lots to do, Hang with us to ball buffet rolling forward. It is Fox Sports Radios Campdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM. It is Fox Sports Radios Campdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM. Ball is back at bet MGM. Use code countdown and receive up to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus bets if you don't win your first bet. When you register with BETMGM, you'll get instant acts to a variety of parlay selection features, live betting options, signature bets, and the best daily promotions in the business. Download the BETMGM app today or visit betemgm dot com. Use code countdown to receive up to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus bets if that bet loses. Okay, little team from South Bend named the Notre Dame Fighting Irish huh taken on Georgia. First things first, I've heard people say, hey, after that loss against Northern Illinois, this has been the most dominant team in the country, and you can make that argument. There's data to back that up that they have been. This is the moment of freaking truth, especially if you're a better and you're saying something like that. They're facing Georgia who hasn't been all world and they've got their backup quarterback in their gunner Stockton. If you're like leading the charge and saying this has been the most dominant team, this is the time to bet Notre Dame. This is the moment of truth where you put your money where your mouth is. And I'm curious how much we're going to see as far as that goes. Now, a couple of things he got to keep in mind. Riley Mills stud defensive lineman out. That's a big loss for Notre Dame, and of course Carson Back being out for Georgia huge loss. This game could be an absolute rock fight. This could be a low, low scoring game. And I'll say this, Riley Leonard has got to pick up some yards with his legs. He did hardly any running he didn't need to against Indiana. That's not going to be the story against Georgia. I think Riley Leonard, who's been good and effective running the ball, I think he's got to be able to do that against Georgia.
So you look at the coaching comparison and you say to yourself, Kirby Smart Marcus Freeman, and you know there's an edge to Kirby Smart for obvious reasons. But at the same token, I think Marcus Freeman's a pretty good football coach. I think he's done some really good things since he's taken over that programs toughness with Notre Dame that has returned. And I really appreciate Riley Leonard and his maturity as a quarterback. And I look at Georgia and I feel like there's more excuses being made for what's happening with the Dogs than what typically happens with other teams. Georgia, I know they have a defense that's elite and can beat any offense in this country. I get it. You know, if they're playing well, they're tough. I know they have an offense that, when they're playing in sync, can beat just about any defense in the country. There's no question about that. But how much stock are we putting in gun or Stockton, like, we're just going to completely omit the fact that we have a come almost unproven, talented quarterback taking over where Carson Beck was haralded as a part of the reason, not the whole reason, but a part of the reason why they were so successful during his tenure as quarterback. He's not available, and we're just gonna say, oh, yeah, but this guy could do it. It's like, really, I mean he he had a turnover that could could have and almost was the turning point of that game against Texas, and it's it just feels like not enough attention is being paid to that one data point that I think is insanely important in football. Great head coach, great quarterback equals greatness in the pros and at the college level. Now you look at this coaching comparison, fairly even slide edge to Georgia in my opinion. You look at the quarterback comparison, and I don't think it's much of a comparison. I think it's gonna be a low scoring game. Like you said, I think it's going to be a lot of it's gonna feel like a lot of the early rounds of a heavyweight fight where boxers are pawing at each other. And then I really, I really feel like Notre Dame has the edge here. I I do. I don't trust what Georgia has at quarterback. Yeah.
And by the way, we just got some uh we got some breaking news just now on on Carson Beck.
He is going to declare for the draft. I don't think there was any surprise there.
But I just saw that that that was just posted on some of the Georgia on some of the Georgia Sports Illustrated sites that that cover the recruiting, and they do a really good job of it. So I would believe that, I would believe that report. And uh yeah, Carson Beck's gonna move on. So here's the here's the contrast in this game. So Back, of course known for his three hundred thousand dollars Lamborghini that he drives around Athens. The contrast in this game is Gunner stocked and drives around in nineteen eighty four to Ford f one fifty.
Like that's that's a true story. What color? No, I'm curious, I have no idea.
Mark Mark Schlabat from USBN wrote wrote an article on Gunner very you know, a long feature article this week, and and it was really intriguing to kind of read about him, and and and I've done some research on him behind the scenes, and he's he's a gamer. That's what That's what I've read, That's what I've understood. He's not the most talented guy in the room. But there was a time when he was participating in one of these quarterback camps, and by the end of the camp, all the other receivers and running backs all wanted to be around him because he's just one of those magnet you know, He's one of those personalities. He's one of those guys with a big persona that can command a room. And that's what you need to do to play quarterback at Georgia. And I'll be honest if you were gonna ask me what Georgia needs in this game. Do they need the guy, the shiny, flashy quarterback with the big rocket arm and the draft prospect driving the three hundred k Lambeau or do they need the spicy, feisty gamer. Right, he's gonna make the right play in the right spot. I would choose the latter in this spot. Brian, Yeah, I hear what you're saying. It might be that type of game. You know, it's more of a rock fight type game. So hey, maybe maybe for one game it's a blessing in disguise. It could be with you on your backup that those could be the dumbest words ever mentioned, and I.
Hope they are, I really they are. This comes back to bite Georgia in a huge way. But it's an intriguing matchup, and I think what would stun me the most. It wouldn't be one side winning either way. I wouldn't be stunned if George one or if Notre Dame one. What would stun me if there are a lot of points in this game?
Agreed?
Because Notre Dame's defense is legit. Georgia's running game has never gotten on track this season, and now they have their backup quarterback in their Notre Dame's passing game has never been anything to write home about this season, which is surprising to me. I thought it would be a lot better with Riley Leonard and it just hasn't been. It's been mediocre the whole time. I don't care what anybody says. So the only thing that would surprise me is if they are just points and you're like, Wow, we got a shootout over here that would shock me. It just does not set up to be that type of game.
Yeah, yeah, when I said Edge Notre Dame. It's a slight one, but it's still there. And when I talk, I don't want to they talk bad. But when I have questions about Stockton, it's not because he could improve us all wrong, but but there is a feeling and I know you guys probably feel it too. When you're looking at the NFL and some of these college quarterbacks who are coming out with only one year of starting experience at the collegiate level, like Trubisky or Lance, they really are flum mixed by the systems they walk into because they're less experienced, you know. And then you look at guys like Jaden Daniels, who played five years of college football, some at ASU, some at LSU, Heisman winner, walks into the pros and he's he's got some real talent. He's got some capability because he's seen a lot, he's done a lot, he's felt blitz packages, he understands how to read a defense. He's a little bit further along in the evolution process that quarterbacks have to go through to gain experiencing become better players. You know, same thing with Drake May who's had success with the New England Patriots, who are a bad offensive football team in roster construction, but he's elevated them since he's stepped in and he's had a lot of college playing experience. So less experienced players make more mistakes than experienced players, or they should because they just haven't seen as much. And so when when football games with tight margins like this one, I think lines up to be between Georgia and Notre Dame come down to making mistakes or not. Who are you gonna trust more, Leonard or Stockton. I think there's a little bit to what Jared said. Sometimes, you know, emotion and maybe the ethos of a player can can captivate a team and really help push them over the top. That only goes so far, though, because the steeper the competition, the harder it becomes to just let emotion carry you. You know, experience needs to carry you. And I I think Notre Dame has more at a more important position than Georgia does.
That I agree with, And I think the SEC title game was kind of that in a nutshell, it was kind of you know, gunnerstocked and kind of willed them back into that game after person Beck got heard, and it was, you know, first time coming off cold, never played before. You're in overtime against the sc you know, in the SEC championship game, and you're leading a game winning drive, and it was actually ironic that Carson bec came in for the final handoff in that game.
But still, that was.
A lot of heart and hustle and will and determination when I watched. So I went back and watched the Indiana Notre Dame game again this week. Besides Kurt Signetti having like the worst game plan imaginable to face Notre Dame's defense, who, by the way, Notre Dame plays man defense. That's what they do, you know, going into the game, Notre Dame's playing man.
That is like one hundred percent certainty.
So Kurt Signetti's like, yeah, instead of you know, running man beaters and rubs and drags, let's just go slant and fade route and just hope that our receivers, who are you know, mid major upgrades, are gonna beat.
Notre Dame's defense one on one.
Yet that that ain't gonna work, or maybe instead of doing game day before the game, you should you should plan some better offensive schemes there, but Notre Dame.
Is such a smart team.
There were so.
Many moments in that game where receivers are motioning.
To Riley Leonard, Hey, we're in man here.
Let's let let's get into the right call, like that Jeremiah loved long touchdown run that was set up by Jaden Thomas, who on the play side realized he was in man cover, the corners were in man coverage on the other side, motioned back to the other side of the field, the opposite side from where the play was called, and it opened up that lane which allowed Jeremiah to kind of run around the corner there hit that Now. Obviously the explosive after burners helped him finish that play, but the crease was set up by Jayden Thomas motioning to the opposite play, to the opposite side of the where the play wasn't called.
It was just a really sharp, savvy move.
And I think that these might be two of the best coach two of the smartest teams in the country. And I think that's why the adjustments leans me to more of a defensive mind. A game it's like a prize fight. It's gonna be a real slow moving match, and in that one knockout.
Blow will probably come in the second half.
But I do think this is going to be a really, really nip and tuck game between Georgia.
And Notre Dame.
I do like you referring to the Irish as smart and savvy they are.
That was smart jan Thomas Man. By the way, it's from Georgia too, iron.
Okay, let's move to the NFL. Here it is Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM. Couple of games that I think stand out in Week seventeen. Here, the first one is Packers at the Vikings, and listen, earlier, Minnesota was a home dog. The line is flipped. Now Minnesota is minus a point and a half at home. But for a little bit of time they were a home underdog, and I'm like, what what what like Minnesota? Look at their record. This team is thirteen and two, and for a little while they were a home underdog against the Packers. I realized the Packers are a very good team, understand that, But I just think it's still a lack of respect for the Vikings. Where you can't just luck your way to thirteen wins. Sam Darnold hasn't lucked his way to a really good season. He's had a good year. If you look at him, He's fourth in passer rating this season, fourth in the NFL. He's had a very good thirty two touchdown passes and eleven interceptions. Yeah, yeah, and again home underdog. That's insane to me. Maybe this Jared to your this is another one of those Vegas nose type situations. If Green Bay won, Okay, I get it. But the complete lack of respect for Minnesota being a thirteen win team, and there has been some buyback on them, Like I said, they're just minus a point and a half right now, but man for them to be on the wrong side of the spread at home as a thirteen win team, that is that's wild to me.
Here's some notes on Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings. So Donald is looking to become the first quarterback in NFL history to win fourteen games in his first season with a new team.
Okay, how about this Detroit.
All of a sudden, Detroit being toppled as the one seed is in play. If the Vikings sweep the Packers. Reminder, the Vikings already beat the Packers, so they beat him again. This is gonna be the first time. And who knows how many years that brand new quarterback starting for the Vikings has done that to Green Bay. It's I mean the Packers, they went from Farv to Rogers to Love. Now the Vikings went from Cousins to JJ to Donald. I mean, like over the shorter period of time I realized, but like, you look at the Vikings and it's been kind of it's been kind of a rough ride in terms of how they've gotten here, but they've it's been smooth sailing. Outside of the mid season downturn that Donald had where he was turning the ball over a little bit, He's recovered well. Over the last six games. He has fifteen touchdowns to one interception. He's playing like an MVP, and nobody wants him to win the award because there's a player like Josh Allen running around like a moose and shoulder pads. If it weren't for him, though, that's great. If it weren't, I mean, a guy's at all weather player. But if it weren't for him, I mean, I do think there would be more hype around Donald because he's recovered so well this season. I really love the way he's playing. I love the way Kevin O'Connell coaches. His third year now in Minnesota, he has he has made believers out of that locker room. They have a ton to play for in this one. I love the Vikings. I love the way Donald's playing.
Moose valuable Player or most valuable Moose. I mean, there's so many ways you could take that one.
Yeah.
So the Vikings are definitely coming off of a Gayzy win, There's no doubt about that. Usually when you lose the yards per play battle six point zero to four point eight, you're against Seattle, you don't win the football game. When you lose the yards per play battle in the NFL by more than a yard per play. Think about how many plays there are in a football game. It just it usually doesn't end well for your team. But that's that's the magic of Minnesota. Remember we saw this a couple of years ago. I think it was in twenty two, the year that they lost to the Giants the Daniel Jones game in the playoffs, and it just I don't know how it's gonna end for Minnesota. But yeah, a thirteen win team that is hosting a divisional game to a team below them in the standings. Typically those teams are favored by a field goal or more. Especially Minnesota's got a great home field advantage. But it goes to show you where the ratings and when I say the ratings, I mean you know the professional people who bet this every day. It shows you how high they view the Packers. And I think there's a lot of people I talk to and work with here in town that if you were to line up the three teams in the NFC North Packers lines and Vikings, they might have green Bay's the number one team on their list, and they're not number one in the standings. And guess what, they ain't number two either. So it just shows you maybe recency bias a little bit with green Bay.
They've looked better lately.
But I think overall, big picture, the number the market, they tend to trust Jordan.
Love and la Floor a little bit more than O'Connell and Darnold. Yeah, no, it's it's pretty wild.
Yeah.
A lot of it comes back to comfort. Do you feel comfortable backing a Sam Donald led team or do you feel more comfortable backing a Jordan Love led team. More people would side with the Packers there, And I get it. That doesn't mean it's gonna be the right side, you know. So it's something that you have to keep in mind. One other game that caught my attention and Monday night football, the Lions at the forty nine Ers. And you might say this is not a great match of the Niners are six and nine and out of the playoffs. It's interesting to me from this perspective, what a difference one year makes. Think about this. This was last season the NFC Championship game matchup, and the Lions were leading and then Dan Campbell went Dan one, eight hundred gambler Campbell and it didn't work out right, a couple of let's not kick the field goal, let's go for it. It didn't work out for the Lions, but it was a close ballgame could have gone either way. And now look at these teams. Look at the Lions, who most people feel are probably the best team in football, the injuries. If not for the injuries, I think it would be a consensus the Lions have the best roster. They're probably the team to beat, certainly in the NFC, maybe the entire NFL. The injuries changed the equation. But look at where the nine one year where the Niners were on the doorstep of winning a Super Bowl, had a lead in the overtime of the Super Bowl against Mahomes, couldn't get it done. And now they're three games under five hundred, while the Lions are thirteen and two. It's amazing that's where these two teams are one year later.
Yeah, Well, you know, Detroit, they play this game with a fully healthy offensive line unit. So while they've been banged up in some other spots, they're getting healthier in others. I look at that being as a key to their success and foundational to their success throughout this rebuild in Detroit is strong play in the trenches. And so if they get healthier in the right spots, and I think that's one of the most major spots. There are some lofty expectations on this unit up front, but they I think have done a great job in the run game, less so in pass protection. Goff had gone through trough during the season where he's getting hit too much. He's been hit too much this season, So this unit could do a better job there, and you look at the forty nine ers. It it's been such a haphazard season for them because all of a sudden, Brock Purdy has really been tested. And I think you look at him and you say, did he pass the test? And the answer is no. I mean, I hate to say it because I like the guy. I mean, I don't know him. I don't know him personally, but from a personality standpoint, everything I've seen, the way he talks, the way he prepares, the type of person he is, I love him. But I hate that he showed up this season where it wasn't perfect, where I U keld out and his left tackle held out, and there were personal issues across the entire team from Ricky Pearson and the injury he faced this offseason with the gunshot wound, and the time that several key playmakers have had a takeaway from the team because of family situations that were awful, and and really, when you're a great quarterback, you booie a roster with your talent. That has not been the case with the forty nine ers. So I think this is going to be a season that raises more question marks than answers questions for them in terms of their future roster construction. And and you know, I mean, if there's a side to like in this game, it's Detroit because they're playing for everything. The Niners, I really think, have failed to meet all expectations this season, and especially at the most important position on the football field.
So we usually do tuddy time.
Here's trivia time timead trivia time. The last team to make the Super Bowl, lose the Super Bowl, super Bowl runner up, and then miss the playoffs the following year. Any you guys know that answer? Okay, so runner up, super Bowl runner up, and then the next year they missed the playoffs completely. This year's Niners are that. I don't know, you remember the last time I did it.
I would imagine Carolina, remember, like they lost to the Patriots. But I would imagine We've had a couple of teams since then.
Atlanta Atlanta after they lost the Super Bowl the Patriots.
So those teams might have done it.
But more recently, the twenty twenty nine Ers after they lost to the Chiefs.
Okay, yeah, yeah, So.
That's the second straight cycle where we've seen a Super Bowl runner up. It has happened prior times before that. You guys might be right. I haven't looked at those, but the last time it happened was the Niners again, So it's just history.
Forget history, you're doom to repeat it. Wow, briefly kind of interesting. What both teams do the games that we mentioned at quarterback? What do the Vikings do with Sam Darnold? What do you do extend? What do the Niners do with Purty? You back up the brinks truck after what you saw this season down a couple of weapons. That's gonna happen when you have to skim. Yeah, you pay him that much. You pay him fifty five million. That's what he's gonna be surrounded by. You gotta skimp. So good luck with that as all I have to.
Hey, well tell him you'll pay for the toyotas he gifted to the offensive line.
Yeah, and then there you go.
Help to stick around.
Hey, Shortly after the show, our podcast will be going up. If you missed anything on today's show, be sure to check it out. Just search Fox Sports Radio wherever you get your podcasts, and be sure to also follow rate and review it again. Just search Fox Sports Radio wherever you get your podcasts, and you'll see this show posted right after we get off the air, Rich Ornberger is with US Penn State All American, Jared Smith FSR betting analyst, I'm Brian No. Coming up next Rapid Fire Picks, selections, bets. We'll have three each for you. We'll compare notes with all of that. Coming up. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to kick Off presented by BETMGM. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to kick Off present by bet MGM all season long. Bet MGM's offering you a second chance on your first touchdown bet in the NFL. When a customer places an NFL wager on a first touchdown scorer bet and he doesn't score first but score second, bet MGM will return one hundred percent of their stakeback in cash. Props to the crew. Bo Benson, trusted producer The Dodger Zone podcast, talking to Tayoscar Hernandez Huh we got Chris Purfett, our technical producer, Extraordinary Pride of Detroit podcast Digital Sager shout out posting our clips on social media. Also end of the year shout out to Elijah who's helped us out quite a bit on this show. Filling in at times absolutely does a great job with our weekday videos as well, Right, Jared, so shout out to him up on game Top of the Hour, LaVar Arrington, TJ. Hushman's out of Plexico, Burris. They've got you covered in less than ten minutes. All right, we've got some picks to make. Let's do it.
Rapid fire.
All right, Sjared, we start with you.
What do you like?
Well, you're gonna have to wait a few days for these, but I'm giving you picks for the CFP.
I want.
I want to get myself out there with these opinions. And let's be honest, a lot of these bowl games they're crapshoots. Let's get you the main course. We'll start with the Fiesta Bowl. I'm going over fifty two and a half penn State and Boise Drew Aller only needed twenty two passing attempts against SMU. Multiple pick six is obviously helped in that game. Andy Kolta, Niki the offensive coordinator got to keep the top shelf calls in the bag. He put him on ice for New Years and now we're gonna whip him out in this game.
And let's be honest, you're gonna watch this game.
And you're gonna think it's junior varsity against the varsity against the jv sometimes with Ashton Genty, he's gonna get his in his game, and I think Penn State's offense is gonna roll as well. Over fifty two and a half. I'm going Ohio State minus two and a half. In the Rose Bowl against Oregon, obviously the revenge game from earlier this year.
If Drew Aller with subpar weapons can throw three.
Touchdowns against this Oregon secondary, what do you think Will Howard can do with Jeremiah Smith and Agbucha and Tate and the number one seed, the undefeated organ Ducks are an underdog in this game. The market is screaming at you to bet the buck, guys, So I will do it. And I'm gonna go under forty four and a half. In the Sugar Bowl between Notre Dame and Georgia, this is a tempo game. I do think Rythy Mills injury is big, but if anything, that means George is gonna lean more on the run.
And I think you're gonna see a lot.
Of heavyweight knockout blows in the first half. And we're gonna see a lot of running in this game, so under forty four and a half Notre Dame, Georgia.
In true countdown to kickoff fashion, I'm counting down to kickoffs in the NFL. So here we go. We have a Saturday slate. We have three games. I'm taking aside in each one of these. Foxbrough used to be a tough place to play. It isn't anymore. The Patriots have a one in five home record. The Chargers are on the road in New England. I'm laying the point six points on the Chargers side. Denver visiting Cincinnati Broncos plus three and a half. I'll take it. Yeah, I mean I like them better. I think that Bengals defense is horrific. If it weren't for Jayden Daniels, then it would be bon Nick's Rookie of the Year. So give me the Broncos. They are like the spot for them. And then the Arizona Cardinals. They're getting six and a half. I'm taking the six and a half against the Rams. They're in LA, not a difficult place to play. Cardinals just got knocked out of playoff contention by whom the Panthers in overtime last last weekend not great. But here's the thing. The Cardinals beat the cheese out of the Rams. They could get the series sweep against them, and I think they potentially can. They're gonna give them all they can handle. I got the Cardinals. I'll take the six and a half points.
All right, you gas bags, I got ten seconds thanks to you.
Guess year. I didn't go that. Sorry.
Give me a Notre Dame Georgia. I'll take under twenty one and a half in the first half. Got a backup quarterback. I think it's gonna be a very low scoring first half. Hopefully not games leading twenty one nothing, that'd be perfect. Give me over in the Ohio State Oregon game. Give me over fifty five and a half and let's triple down legohnta wester box receiver. Touchdown, touchdown.
Whoa
