FEAR & GREED | Business NewsFederal politics vs the economy - it's a battle for the biggest story of the week. Plus sharemarket news, a pay rise for hundreds of thousands of workers, and some incredible retailers. Sean Aylmer and Michael Thompson go head to head on the top business stories of the week, with Adam Lang picking a winner in a fierce debate.
This is the weekend edition of Fear and Greed, daily business news for people who make their own decisions. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
Good morning, Michael.
Our weekend show.
Perhaps we should say our long weekend show, because that's really what this is.
It's got a different vibe to it.
Don't you think it's got the same vibe as every weekend show, as in its abuse each other, abuse the judge. But we just hate it lasts a little longer because it is long weekend. I think that's how we go.
It's slightly irreverent.
I suppose you'd also say, look, it's about the two of us each nominating what we think is the biggest business story of the week, the most remarkable story, a mystery category that we change every week, and then our favorite business ish story. And it is a competition, and we are joined every week by a judge to pick a winner. And that judge is, as always our Fear and Greed colleague, Adam Lang Adam, good morning.
Hello, Michael. Hellosh on. Happy Easter.
Happy Yeah, same to you. No, I mean it's in the spirit of giving, and I don't know the Easter is a giving time. Yeah, I just thought i'd give you some advice.
Thank you.
That feedback actually feedback, yep, but you need to hear the whole tale rather than part of the tarn. So Michael and I were chatting to the Kok last week.
The kook is our resident economist, Stephen could.
Caulis unprompted by either Michael and I, he said, you know, the weekend edition, the judging sometimes is atrocious, and we're like, yeah, yeah, weally agree, absolutely atrocious, and he goes, because sometimes your stories, as in Michael and my stories are really bad, they should get five out of twenty. So not only did he whack you, Adam, because all three of them, and he whacked Mickey t as well, and unfair. It was totally unfair, and so we went for him. Yeah, yeah, yeah, we agree atrocious judging. Hold on, well, what do you say that?
Genuinely thought he was only criticizing you, Adam, and then all of a sudden so in the end, his point was that he wants to see you give us lower scores for bad stories.
If we do poorly, he says, you just.
End up giving them twenty one out of twenty five instead of twenty five out of twenty five, when really they deserve about a five or a six.
Okay, I don't agree with that.
I think someone's nature, Adam's nature, mister nice guy, very hard for him to go under twenty.
I'll try and experiment with it, see how it goes. I'll imagine Stephen in the audience kind of howling and heckling.
Yes, yes, yes, doing you from behind? Let's do this, Sholly, what do you quit, Adam? Very quickly? What are you actually looking for? In order to get full marks for each story? What do we need to deliver right?
Maximum points will be dictated by topicality, timeliness, and of course economic impact. I'd love you to play some of my subjective bias towards reform, probably not a lot of that in this political atmosphere. And lastly importantly melodrama. Please bring the theater, okay, Sean m would you like to go first? Yes, yes, yes, yes, good theater? Well absolutely, he's behind you, So I just not really go for the pantomime now. It feels like that's the way we're heading right.
I once went to a pantomime in Bristol in the UK, and John Inman what sort of vintage within it. A little while ago, John, wasn't it do you remember? Are you being served? Are you fres It was fantastic. Anyway, I digress. What's relevant here? Biggest story? What do we find out this week? Well, we found out that pretty much the Reserve Bank is set to cut interest rates on May twenty. Not a sure thing, I agree, But the minutes from the Reserving Board meeting of a couple of weeks ago said the things, that's looking at labor force, Well we got a labor force figure that which is a bit soft this week, didn't we what's going on internationally? Well, had tariff's, you know, kind of a tariff bonanza which is causing all sorts of malay in financial markets and inflation. Now we'll find out about inflation in ten days time or so. Can you believe that Michael is so disrespectful that when it comes to inflation he starts yawning. When it comes to people's livelihoods, interest rates, mortgage payments, credit card payments, Michael is yawning.
The thing is, I genuinely find this interesting. I find your delivery dull. That's the problem.
Play the man, not the ball.
That's right.
So what we found out from those minutes is that the Reserve Bank won't mind cunning interest rates. Only four market economists out there think they won't cut rates. On May twenty, when those unemployment or the labor force data came out on Thursday, unemployment rate four point one percent. There were thirty two thousand new jobs found, but that followed a fifty three thousand dropped the previous month. So overall the trend there, it's just sing and showing a bit of weakness in the labor market. I reckon, we've got a rate cut coming. Hmm. Economic importance, Yeah, beat that, Mickey t all right.
I will sean there is only one big story, and the fact is that this is going to be delivered with gusto and with passion and emphasis and melodrama and everything that Adam needs in order to deliver this.
Full marks Already already you can tell this ain't much of a story because he has built it up. The wrapping, the melodrama, the whole bit go on.
One big story. And you know what the good thing is, parcels that for once it is not Tariff's it is and it has been for the last two weeks now in a row. The biggest story has been tariffs. And you know what, it should have been last week, and it should have been the week before, and it should be next week, and should be the week after. And it's sure as heck is today the election campaign the biggest story of this five week stretch, and it's been overshadowed by all that stuff happening overseas. This matters, It matters to Australians and it matters to the Australian economy.
Not saying that the other things didn't.
But this is big, right, This is big, and it comes from Australia. It is an Australian story. We passed the halfway point this week, just two weeks to go, this time exactly, this time, at a fortnight, we will be officially stuffed to the gills with democracy sausages having voted. It is going to be an extraordinary experience. This week we saw the party launchers for both Labor and the Liberals. We saw the second debate. It was, as you said, Sean, a much more spirited affair. And you know what it feels like, voters are finally getting a sense of who these two leaders actually are and what they actually stand for. We had housing policy as a big issue on both sides this week featured at their launchers. We had energy policy for the Liberals, health care for labor. These came through in the debate as well. Russian jets made an appearance, which is just you don't get to say that in enough election campaigns that.
Russia Russian jets didn't make an appearance.
This is true.
They kind of like the specter of Russian jets. It made an appearance and Peter dutt't forced to acknowledge that he was in fact wrong about the Indonesian president talking about the potential for Russian jets to be based. They're not saying that the request wasn't actually made. It just wasn't that the Indonesian president.
Talked about it.
It was in fact another government official within Indonesia. In the end, a jam packed week full of politics, full of policy, and finally a sense that we have too clear options to vote for because we had some clear air this week to fully enjoy and embrace the wonder that is Australian democracy.
Wow, feel better, there you go. So Sean I reckon interstrates are coming down and Michael election campaign.
Can I ask Adam if he went to the general population this morning. Yeah, said, you're more interested in the campaign of the last week or the fact that we think rates are going to be cut. They're going to go, what interest rate's going to be cut?
Yeah, but they won't have heard about it because it hasn't been the biggest story. But they will go, Yes, I know, there's an election campaign. It's all we've been talking about all week. It's the biggest story.
Biggest issue uniting both these stories is of course, cost of living, and it is the single biggest concern. Interest race coming down will be an absolutely material factor on that. I think the election campaign has to win because it's closer than the next RBA meeting, so very narrow victory. This is my harsh spirit coming through.
I love that I didn't actually actually forgot to mention cost of living. I got caught up in the melodrama. I forgot to mention cost of living in that anyway, it was the specter, much like the specter of Russian jets. The specter of cost of living hung heavy over my entry. Just then, let's move on to most remarkable, shall we.
Yes, mister Entry, please you go first.
All right?
The most remarkable story this week, and there's actually a very serious one and a very kind of worthy story.
Most remarkable.
You know it's going to be dull, don't you.
No, it's not dull.
It is actually genuine, and I'm trying to I was trying to draw a line under the carry on of before that. I think that's the challenge.
It's like the old films carry on the weekend edition.
The most remarkable is the ruling by the Fair Work Commission this week. And the ruling was for pay rises of up to thirty percent for hundreds of thousands of early childhood workers and health professionals. You can see why I was trying to distance myself from the carry on of the first story to get into the serious story now. Because these are industries that are dominated by women. The rulings are part of an effort to fix gender pay and balances, and it's just getting started because unions are flagging other cases for clothing retail workers and flight cabin crew and hairdressers and receptionists. There's already claims before the Fair Work Commission for up to an increase of up to thirty five percent for nurses in private hospitals. It is remarkable because this is long overdue and finally, at last we are potentially starting to catch up with where we should be. And there is a long way to go, obviously, but this was a very big step. You would argue this week for gender equality, and.
They had legislation last year putting this in place.
Massive ruling this week. That is a big, big ruling.
And I'm not arguing the importance of the story, but what sort of category are you in?
Anyway?
My most remarkable story, right, nothing happened on share markets. Eh, that's remarkable.
Seriously, twentieth of January.
I mean, look, we started off of the market, got dumped, and then it just trended up all week, up about one and a half two percent. You know, if you've got gold stocks, love them. We had Northern Star buying Degray Mining earlier in the week. We've got you know, a bunch of South African based gold company trying to take over gold Road Resources. They were partners, they're clearly not partners anymore. Ah, We've got sort of friendly merges between a couple of the big players. It's just, you know, my goal's going off. But otherwise nothing's happening. Banks are up a little bit minus are up a bit now given what is going on in the global economy, this is truly remarkable because we have a reordering of global trade at the moment, no matter what happens from here at total reordering. We had tutle turmoil in financial markets, and this week traders starting they're getting their head around it now. Donald Trump didn't tweet as much this week as you normally. I think it's more playing golf because it was particularly healthy. I think he won three golf tournaments this week, was it or was that in the front for it was?
Wasn't that remarkable with the health report from the president? When the White House released his health.
The medical presence doctor.
Yeah saying that yes, he passed all the.
Intelligence tests and that the various mental acuity tests, and his blood pressure is good, and his cholesterol is good, and he has won several golf tournaments. It's like, Okay, did you need to mention the fact that he won it or is it just the fact that he plays golf regularly is sufficient. It feels as though the fact that the doctor managed to work in there the fact that he's not just playing golf he is playing golf well enough, but that suddenly feels as though there's a.
Bit more in it.
And it to me, to me, if you were playing against the president, or if you're playing against the world leader, would you accidentally take an air swing somewhere just just so.
That you could If I was doing it, wouldn't be an accident. Sorry anyway, My point being, it has been a remarkably steady week on the market, and really the only news out of the market this week has been gold. Say favorite status hit, didn't you Hi? We've had a lot going on in the gold sector, but otherwise remarkably normal.
Adakay, Adam. This is one of those stories. Picture Stephen could cool us sitting there right now listening, going, Adam, this is one that's your panelized do it.
But you're assuming that he might be penalizing me.
But logic would tell me that shot. Yeah, so I think it very worthy story, Michael, fairly long run up to this happening. So it's what happened to be week?
Is part of it happened this week?
Yeah, there is an element of remarkability and that it took this long, but here we are great on markets though, and I'm gonna I'm choosing Sean's story because within it and I think this is one of the things I've come to appreciate more in the last month than I have previously. Is it the fact that the Americans, ala Trump is actually taking a lesson from bonds at the moment, and that's what's causing him just to halt this path he's been on, which has proven to be so destructive. And I think that he's actually taking a lesson from the bond market is remarkable.
That's assuming he understands, which most normal people will got right.
He knows he should know what he's doing, right, So I'm hoping that that is the case. On You're right, it might be a guess one one. Did that really just happen? The markets are remarkable. It's an honorable wind to Sean.
A dishonorable loss to Michael.
No, the only thing dishonorable here is the judgments disgrace. Take a quick break. We will come back with a mystery category of the week.
Sean.
It is one all we are now looking for the best. It's a mystery category. It is we have chosen this week. We chose by looking at the stories of the week and looking for themes and looking for ideas that leapt out at us. And one theme did leap out at us with some vigor.
A common thread, and it was the best retail story. Okay, sorry, but just just just say I was struggling for a notion of what retail story means. Just okay, Oh, it's a story about retailers. Okay, about retailers.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
God he's dumb sometimes, isn't he. Who Adam do you mean? Or me, Adam? But don't Adam, don't tell me.
Well, sometimes there's retail politics. Okay, let's see. The best retail story in Australia this week.
Is quite clear. Okay, because Guzmani Gomez as if go on going toe to toe or perhaps beretoe to toe with Taco Bell, I got him and coming out on top. It's not bad, huh, Gusman, little homegrown Aussie brand just taking over the world. ASX listed, Colins Foods is selling the rights of the Taco bell chain here because really, GYG has just been too successful in creating it is now synonymous with Mexican food in Australia. It is growing and a strategic review found that Taco Bell doesn't have the cut through that it needs to succeed in this market. Colin's Foods is going to sell the license to the twenty seven Taco Bell stores that it has.
Instead, that's going to twenty seven.
That's major. WHOA hold the phone.
Well, it probably you know what it is.
It's major because it signifies a significant signifies a significant capitulation, Sean. Instead, Colin's Foods is going to focus on growing KFC in the home of Fried Chicken, Germany.
Because the Germans are known for their fried chicken. That's right, although I don't call it that.
The Kentucky Fried Chicken gyg right has two hundred and twenty stores across itsel two hundred and twenty stores.
Sorry, what did you say? Adam said, we said fried chicken. Were discussing fried chicken, and you're off in your own little fairy land talking about something that we weren't interested in. And I said, it's not really called fried chicken. And Adam said, snitzl. I wonder whether that's right. I wonder whether the germ is called fried chicken. Snitzl.
That's a different product, different kind of fried chicken. It is fried chicken.
Yeah, anyway, go on, Michael. I was just trying to inject some interest into your story, and you did not.
Succeed. Two one hundred and twenty stores across four countries. It is expanding rapidly. It started in Sydney, started in Newtown in about two thousand and eight. I remember going to that store in around about two thousand and nine and sampling the delicious Mexican food. It sounds like I'm on the payroll here, doesn't it. It was very, very good and it still remains quite good. It is a real read.
Oh I'm sorry, I've got to give Goodman. So I'm not a fast food person and I'm mostly vegetarian slash pescatarian. Goodsman gives me options, so I'm going to stand up for Goodman. I actually and my kids love it fan so better than quite good.
Well.
I just didn't want to sound too enthusiastic because oh, I'm like, oh yeah, right, okay, go Goodsman.
Anyway, it's so realistic. Integrity in question.
Yeah, absolutely, and I have a lot of integrity and I do not. I can't say that with a straight face, and I don't want to question it seriously, though GYG expanding rapidly. It shows the power of momentum that they've been able to steamroll over Taco Bell. Right, it is a real retail success story. Taco Bell's been a big success obviously in the US. What it shows here, it shows how hard it is for a foreign brand to come into Australia and to try and take on an Australian retailer. In fact, I would suggest there are no other stories that you could even kind of put forward that would be worth considering. If it's no, no, no, no that have happened this week of Australian of Australian companies that are under fire from overseas threats.
Well, I would like I would like to say mine's at the other end of the spectrum. So Michael's story is about Taco Bell, effectively saying right too hard. Mine is actually about taking on a market leader in this country who I have brought so much stuff from this place and it is expensive, so any competition I love, Adam, do you know where we're going on this?
I don't. I'm intrigued.
Your discretion discretionary spend right for your family, so include kids, what type of goods.
What a supermarket spending.
No, that's not that's a consumer stable Adam. If you've been listening to this show, you know that. But clearly you haven't discretionary him down discretionary Where would you what sort of goods? I mean electronics maybe, yeah, but what else? And you've got look, you've got boys.
Baby high five Bunnings. You know they get a lot of.
Discretion include your voice who were underage?
Dan Rebels in court?
Ah, there we go being a Rebel sport Hullo.
Very good retailer.
I buy. I spent a lot of money at Rebel, but it just irritates me that there's no competition in the market. There's going to be British retailer Phrases making an aggressive push into the sport and fitness goods market. Adam, You and I next time we want to buy Likra together we can go to Phrases for a.
Bike ride for charity in Mayshaw.
Yeah, that would love people to donate to. For example, So Accent Group is going to actually run these Fraser stores and take on Rebel. It's a whole new player now. Fraser list of the UK owns owns Slazinger everlast it plans. It's one of the world's largest owners and retailers of sports and premium products, fifteen hundred stores, thirty countries. This has got some serious omfits. Started in nineteen eighty two in the backyard of a bloke called Mike Ashley. He borrowed ten thousand pounds from his parents. Not Newtown like Michael's dodgy story. Mine was at least somewhere I don't know, global UK. And he started. He's built these incredible business phrases and they're taking on Rebel. Now what I'm excited there is this being competition into a market where you and I spend a lot of money. Why would not that not be the best retail story of the week, Adam.
Isn't there already competition? Isn't there like Doc and those other ones?
Yeah, JD Sports, Decathline, I Rebel.
But Rebel's the big player in that market very much.
And you know, having a new competitor in that field's got to be a good thing. I wanted to macro forces, right, there's more athletic and ath leisure where sure, not just our lycra.
But when I really walk in the morning with Jackie, I wear the.
Like you wear the Liker to bed from what I heard him in the studio, whenever possible. So just in terms of the scale, I think, Sean, you've got to win this one because there's more people, higher spending in that category. I think the Gosman he Gomez story is brilliant, and the Taco bell is sort of putting up the white flag. I wonder if GOSBONI go and just buy all the stores, you know, take them well, good venues, good shops, good drive through. They are all these twenty four hour concepts. So yeah, thank you. Both good stories, but I think phrases just has to nudge this one for biggest retail story of the week.
Did I get any points or Bretoe to toe?
I thought you could have gone further with that. I think, you know during the week you used the phrase Mexican standoff that was missing.
Well, I'd already used it. I can't reuse material.
Marco on top, you know, I think there was other opportunities that you could have. You know, really, I've gone for it on that one, Michael, So no you didn't.
Right, Let's move on.
The rage is building, all right? Our favorite story on this very peaceful very happy, very loving, long weekend.
You go first, Michael.
It's getting serene now.
I'm trying to just feel trying to post. Okay, I know I did politics.
Earlier in the show.
Hold on, you can't do two lots in what go on?
Eat it? I'm doing it. It's no longer the Taco bell story.
We need to cover a couple of the gaffs from the last week, right, because what is an election campaign?
This is your favorite story of the week. The gaffs.
Yeah, actually, I'm a bit jealousy.
Had of course the air kiss.
Oh god, there wasn't a kiss.
She was just didn't want to give Anthony Abeze.
So this was at the Labor Party launch in Perth and Tanny Pliversek and Anthony Aberanezi came together, but then they didn't quite come together and it was just an awkward dodge and like, oh god, bring back social distancing. And they could have just waved at each other from across the room. It made it look like they're beefing about something and they're not necessarily and they shouldn't be during an election campaign from the same faction. They should be kind of on the same side. And Tanny plivsec should be a major asset to the Labor Party right now, because she's got very good recognition, she's been around for a long time, a very good voice for the party. And instead she now looks as though she's on the outer with the with the Prime Minister. And it's just all very, very awkward, and there's just the images. You just watch it and you feel sorry for them both being caught up in that. On the other side, don't hold.
On, hold on what I don't feel sorry for them. They're politicians, they're putting themselves out there. This is choreographed. Don't actually have them kissing at each other. If that's the case, right, if they don't like each other, whatever, the fact work it better.
No, No, that's that's fair.
But I mean, like, do you really think they would actually discuss in advance. I'm going to give you a hug.
These two haven't been mates for a while.
Yeah, but they.
Oh, totally. I'm not disagreeing with that. But anyway, great gaff, the good story.
I feel sorry for them because I would rather get caught out on something that's policy related or something along those.
Lines, not for some awkward little personal thing. It's just.
No, it would be like if one of them was a hugger and one wasn't a hugger. Can you imagine that being kind of accosted for a hug when you're not a hugger?
Adam, I could imagine. Go on, what about the opposition? Anything from them?
The Opposition had its own gaff Peter Dutton using his twenty year old son to talk about housing unaffordability, which makes sense. He's a twenty year old and what twenty year old can afford to buy a house? Right, so you think, okay, we've got a twenty year old, you can wheel him out. It's going to be okay. It might have been a misstep and it's probably one that should have occurred to Peter Dutton and his team when the Opposition leader himself has bought and sold something like thirty million dollars worth of property over the last few decades. Right, would the Bank of Mum and Dad be helping? Of course somebody was going to ask that, and he had to dodge and dodge and dodge until he finally confirmed us it the next day that yes, yes, the Bank of Mom and Dad will be helping his twenty year old son to get into the property market, and of course you would help. If you're in that position and able to help, you'd be mad not to. That was an absolute own goal right by Peter Dutton, by the Liberals. We just had these gaffs, and there are like other little ones that popped up throughout the place, Like you could argue that the whole yes, and you could argue that the whole kind of Russian jets thing was a bit of a gaff as well. But if we're just to pick out the two best ones, it's the air kiss and it is the bank of Mum and Dad and Peter Dutton's son. It's probably surprising that we are into week three of the campaign before the gaffs really started happening. Usually they're right from the start, right, we did have Anthony Albinezi falling off a stage, I suppose last week that was good.
And we had we had the ball in the face or something or other than Peter.
Dutton Peter cameraman bleed from the face. That's right, Okay, I take that back. There have been gaffs, but this was a good week for them.
Well, it is easter, isn't it. It's my favorite story was some fun facts about Easter. And that's fair because before the show Adam was talking about a wasaskol wabbit. Maybe you do that in your voice again. That's it, that's it. Anyone of Adam's generation understands that the interesting thing about Easter is that it's all about kind of resurrection. So if you're a Christian, it's the resurrection of Christ. But mostly it's about rebirths. So you know, chocolate eggs, any idea, Adam, what they symbolize or eggs is a symbol of new life, fertility like it, good Easter, bunny, what's that symbolized?
Okay, well so I did I did know bits about this one. But I loved your story, Sean, because this came from you. The German pagan tradition of the well the hair, yes, symbol of fertility in your life.
Yes, that's right. The word Easter that comes to mean thats nothing to do with Christianity is an Anglo Saxon goddess Eostra eos tres, a fertility goddess. It does. I mean, these are interesting facts why we actually have these traditions and basically mostly their pagan that have been somehow morphed into Christianity and we have what we're doing tomorrow with Easter eggs and kids and stuff like that. That's very cool, Cholo, I love the idea. The biggest Easter hed made was actually from aluminium, not chocolate, five thousand pounds Alberta, Canada. Most expensive probably the one sold at a Christie's auction in London two thousand and seven, made by the man himself, Carl Faberget in nine oh two in Saint Petersburg. The enameled deck contains a multicolored cockrel which at every hour pops out of the egg and flaps his wings before nodding his head three times. No idea about the relevance of that, just I think it was cool. There's these little facts about Easter. My favorite story over to you, Adam.
Very difficult?
Is this working with Michael is difficult?
Adam? Please be honest here, is this a difficult one for you?
A story that actually took place this year, or a tradition that has been in place for hundreds of about two thousand.
Which we're well more than I think, which we're celebrating right now, right now, Come on screen, Michael Wins. That is a major problem without judging.
Sometimes he gets it right.
I think I think I'm with Stevid. Could cool us.
So on the story account to all? Okay, give us the points. I was savage this week. I've been harsh on you both, Michael seventy six points? You have been harsh? Which one? Sorry, just tell us that Sean eighty points?
Which one? Did Michael really bomb out on? Well?
You both the favorite stories for both were pretty thin thought, but politics just got ahead because it was this week's gas.
Well, Adam, you put together a bunch of you put together a bunch of stories, but nothing's happening, right thing? Yeah, Rich from the judge. Okay, I'm I'm judging next week. That's it. I'm done.
Yeah, judge the judge.
I haven't ever been a judge before. Can't be judge next week? Michael Adam.
Yeah, Well, I don't know that anyone wins if you're judge.
I love I love you both the same.
What story?
Just just very quickly, Adam, we need to wrap this up. What story did I bomb out on?
Well?
You're kind of mediocrity through all of them, but political political gaffs was the worst.
Because it just didn't you win that he did.
Yours was worse because there was none of it was from this week. None of it was news. This is a business news podcast.
Okay, I'm judging next week, Michael. Go into next week with extreme confidence, with spirit.
Yes, yes, I'm phoning this next week. Why don't you just phoned in now, Sean, we know what the outcome. No, this is good, all right. I love a little bit of animosity at Easter. Thank you very much, Adam, Thank you, Michael, Thank you Sean, and happy East everyone.
Thank you, Sean, Thanks Adam, thank you, Michael.
Make sure you following the podcast. Join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and X.
I'm Michael Thompson. And that was fear and greed. Have a great weekend.
