Wednesday 27 November 2024
Donald Trump promises big tariffs on his closest neighbours, triggering a sell-off in financial markets.
And more, including:
The Albanese government passes legislation aimed to help home owners.
General Motors wins a slot in Formula one Racing and will introduce the Cadillac brand to the sport.
Plus budget blowouts, coal deals and cheap EVs
Plus don’t miss the latest episode of How Do They Afford That? - seven ideas for an affordable Christmas. Get the episode from APPLE, SPOTIFY, or anywhere you listen to podcasts.
Today on Fear and Greed, Donald Trump promises big tariffs on his closest neighbors, triggering a sell off in financial markets. The Albeneazi government passes legislation aimed to help homeowners and general motors, wins a slot in Formula one racing and will introduce the Cadillac brand to the sport. Plus budget blowouts, coal deals, and cheap evs. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people who make their own decisions. It is Wednesday, the twenty seventh of November twenty twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
That is quite the introduction, Michael, Quite the introduction, plenty on.
We have a lot to cover in the next fifteen or sixteen minutes. We're actually putting ourselves on quite a tight time limit today, Sean, so I'm not going to waste time. The main story this morning, Donald Trump has We're going to be saying that a lot, aren't we? The main story this morning. Donald Trump is upended global trade rules even before taking office, saying he will impose a twenty five percent tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada on his first day in office, and another ten percent on goods from China.
Imagine if you were his friend, I would have thought like, well, actually, imagine if you were his enemy. I think that's what I'm saying.
If this is the way he's treating his friends right across, right across the border makes things have been awkward with Canada right.
Very aggressive comments aimed at the US's neighbors. In Canada's it's closest ally anyway, he signed concerns over illegal immigration that's in Mexico's case, and illicit drugs in the case of Canada and China. He'll sign well. Donald Trump says he will sign his first executive order on all products capital A capitol L, capital el all products coming into the US. He put that on truth social media. Tariff will remain until the country's clamped down on drugs, especially friend and aal and migrants crossing the border illegally. Fentanyl is a synthetic opioid that claims the lives about seventy five thousand Americans every year. He also attacked China for not carrying out the death penalty for people dealing infentanyl. While some say Donald Trump's tweets are part of a negotiating position he's establishing ahead of becoming president. They are certainly aggressive, no doubt about that. He's goed investors the US dollar surge, pushing the Aussie dollar back to the low sixty four US cent range. That's its weakest level in four years. It then bounced back towards sixty five US sense. Copper and based metals, they tend to rise and fall in line with expected future economic growth. They all fell. Bond neils jumped. Now. Slapping on tariffs like these will immediately push up inflation. If you're buying something produced in Mexico, such as a cheap fridge, that's going to be a lot more expensive, pushes up inflation, pushes up bond nils. The Canadian dollar had its lowest level since twenty twenty. The Mexican peso tumbled even cooin went backwards. It's now down six percent in three sessions. It is still trading at more than ninety four thousand US dollars a unit. Gold prices bounced big reaction to these comments from Donald Trump.
Yeah, and then locally Sean yesterday, we saw a China's ambassador in Canberra, Shao Chan, speaking and this came after those series of those tweets, and he said US trade policy is an important element in Australia's relationship with the US. So here we are, We're being drawn into this quite quickly, aren't we.
Absolutely, It just shares the wide ranging ramifications of what Donald Trump is proposing. The ambassador called on Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi to remain a trading friend. Treasure Jim Chalmers urged calm. He said the incoming US administration will bring different policies. He's confident in Australia can navigate these changes Elsewhere. In a statement, the Chinese Embassy in Washington said no one would win a trade war. It said economic cooperation is mutually benefit. The irony here, Michael, is it. Cracking down on fentanyl manufacture and distribution is actually an area where Beijing and Washington have been working together for the last year or two, and there is no doubt there is progress on combating both in China, both the manufacture and distribution of it. So it is somewhat ironic that this is what Donald Trump has picked on because it's an area where they are making strides forward.
It's curious, and you do what you made the point earlier that maybe this is just a negotiating tactic quite early on, considering he is still weeks away from actually taking office. That really it's about posturing at the moment and just establishing a almost a precedent for how trade negotiations and the like are going to be run.
Yeah, I mean, imagine running trade negotiations like this. I mean, some people pointed out ten percent on Chinese goods coming into the US. That's actually a lot better than sixty percent, which is what he said previously. So it's not too bad.
So look on the bright side here, it could be a whole lot worse.
Yeah.
Now, so on the news, I mean, this is this is such. This is one of those big stories, right, isn't it that just kind of hits everything all at once. And then you certainly hit bank and energy stocks on the local market yesterday as well.
Yes, it did. All the talk of tariffs encouraged some investors to jump in and take profits from stocks that have run hard. The idea there is the companies have done well, but the bad news is around the corner, so let's get out before the bad news hits come off bank, for example, it was down three and a half percent yesterday. All the banks were down A and Z, Westpac and National Australia Bank dropped about one and a half percent. By the closes. The SMPA six two hundred was down zero point seven percent to eighty three hundred and fifty nine points. The energy stocks were lower Woodside and Santos for close to four percent. So that was as much to do with reports with a potential sixty day CS far in the Middle East. I'll come to that in a moment. What was really interesting were the companies that are involved. Australian companies listed here that are involved in US manufacturing, particularly if you've got operations in that Blue Coats Bluescope Steel for example, jumped six percent. Building Products Group James Hardy has major operations in the US, it jumped more than two percent, Ansel Rose and core Rose. So those comments that tweet from Donald Trump, it just hit all corners of the globe.
The power of a single tweet that is quite remarkable. Sean after the show, worth quick mention now of your interview that's coming up. Neil Rogan, Managing Director and head of Distribution at Russell Investment, because we are talking kind of about markets here obviously and kind of things changing, and it goes to the importance of getting good advice during times of volatility, right.
We speak about that specifically. So Russell Investments have put out a report, the Value of an Advisor Report. It's their annual report basically tells you what an advisor gives to you, and we talk about the need in times of turmoil. That's where an advisor really comes to the fore and really does a great job in helping you get through funinancial stress and financial volatility. So we go into that, into the findings of the report and actually quantify the value of an advisor and it's really really interesting.
Yeah, it's a great chat. It's coming up after the show. Don't go anywhere though. We are still to talk politics and budget blowouts and big news from Google and evs plenty more coming up. Will be back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean Parliament is in full swing, but one bill that's unlikely to be passed this week and possibly not even before the next election, to be honest, is legislation to increase the earnings tax on superannuation accounts worth more than three million dollars. This has been a pretty controversial one it has.
Finance Minister Katie Gallagher conceded it was a big ask to get that one through. It doesn't have the support of the opposition or the crossbencheres. She said it still remains labor policy even though the Government hasn't been able to negotiate it through the Spencers. We do have two sitting weeks scheduled for February next year, so they could still try and bring it then before the next election. That is, assuming we don't get an election called between now and then. The social media legislation that will pass though Yesterday National Maverick Matt Canavan, the NAT's Bridget Mackenzie, Independent MP Kylie tink they all indicated they had concerns about it and particularly the speed it's been pushed through parliament. Laws to back a sixteen billion dollar fund boosting public schools and a three point six billion dollar wage increase for child care workers they were set to pass, and the big one the Greens back down in their fight against the government's helped to buy and build to rent housing scheme. We're talking about this twenty four hours ago, saying that the government looked like they were really going to lose out on this one. Well, it flipped in a moment, with the Greens leader Adam Bandt seemingly changing his mind on the spot. A weird One big win for the government helped buy is the idea that the government will co own first sort of houses with first homeowners. The bill to around taxing centers for investors coming and build more homes, both pieces of legislation which were election promises, passed the Senate yesterday.
Yeah, a couple of big wins for the government. There perhaps not such a big win coming though. Sean Deloitte Access Economics forecasting a blowout in the budget deficit this financial year on the back of a softer economic outlook.
Don't you love a blowout?
Love any kind of a blowout? That's exciting hardly now.
Deloit Access is among the most reputable budget forecasters in the country. I would say it reckons. There's about an underlying cash balance of thirty three point five billion dollars this financial year the twenty twenty five financial year. That's more than five billion dollars worse than expected at the last budget. Net debt will come in around twenty percent of GDP, in line with expectations. Now, remember the last two budgets were in surplus, but the government got a free kick. We had inflation and so that pushed up prices, so they got more money that way, and commodity prices were doing really well. So one hundred and ten hundred and twenty bucks a ton, we're getting plenty of money from higher commodity prices. We don't have those tailwinds anymore. The good news is a labor market remains strong, but the government will really have to work harder to keep budgets in balance or at least minimize deficits. The point is the budget has had an unexpected revenue gain in the back of the economy the last couple of years. Whoever has to do it next year, in the year after, and the year after, it's going to be much much tougher.
Sean tech giant Google has backed Australia Connect, which is a connectivity project that will build two new subsea cables between mainland capital cities and Christmas Island.
You know how you love space and aircraft. I find fiber optic cables on the seabed fascinating.
That's quite a niche topic to be It is really, isn't it. But it doesn't surprise me finding that out about you.
I used to live with a guy who worked for a crowd called Alcatel who used to operate in Sydney and job who's an engineer, and his job at times was to sit on the back of a ship and they just rolled out the fiber optic cable and he'd just make sure that it rolled out sank to the bottom and then they'd have to splice between cables when they was swapping cables over and that was his job. What a cracking job.
And so it's not actually secured as you go like, it's just kind of just sitting there loose on the bottom.
Yeah, we had this great debate about this was twenty years ago or longer, where there's great debate about the environmental damage being done. And I won't say his name. His nickname was Bear the Great Bear, and he said there's no environmental damage, and I said, there's lots of environmental damage and many beers we had talking fiber optic cables laying on the bottom of the ocean. So it's always been one of my favorite topics.
Oh my God, So your interests a niche. Even your drinking arguments a niche.
Yeah, we boring.
Yeah, I was trying to be Yeah, but I do find it kind of interesting, Like anything to do with it feels like such an engineering feat to do anything like that. I'm amazed.
And I mean most of the world's Internet traffic runs through these cables the speed of light. They're far abrupting speed of light, and I think it's quite phenomenal.
Anyway, what's Google doing in this space?
Straight to connect? Well, the first cable run between Darwen and Christmas Island. There'll be a second cable between Melbourne and Perth. They're onto Christmas Island and Singapore. According to The Sydney Morning Herald, subse cable technology is deployed across thousands of kilometers of ocean floor. Of the ocean floor, Google's form the consortium to build the next project includes data center provider next DC, Telco Group, Focus Cable Provide, a Subco, the Sunshine Coast City Council and a bunch of state governments. Communications Minister Michelle Rowland said the cables will expand and strengthen not just digital connectivity in South Australia, but in the Pacific as well. Seabed infrastructure is really critical to national security. Do you remember a story last week and it was the twelve hundred kilometer under sea fiber optic cable linking Finland and Germany and they thought they were talking about Russians severing it, which stuffs up your communications toatally. This is kind of the same sort of deal. I love this story.
That's a really cool story. It is the US minor Peabody Energy and Indonesia's now is this Buma?
Is it? I thought we're gonna have to go b Uma. I don't think the Indonesians would say Boomer.
I think it feels like it's It's right for kind of misinterpretation here anyway. Together they will pay close to five billion dollars for the Queensland coal mines.
Anglo American Peabody will control four Queensland coking mines, while Buma will get one. Cocing coal is used for steel making as opposed to a thermal coal, which is used for power generation. Peabody doesn't have a great track record in Australia. About thirteen years ago it bought Queensland minor MacArthur Coal for nearly five billion dollars. Ultimately, it then went into Chapter eleven bankruptcy. Anglo, which in May knock back a seventy five billion dollar bid from BHP, has spent the past six months offloading coal assets, particularly including stakes in Lake Vermont and Gelember coal mines in Queensland. I think that means it's pretty much out of coal in Australia now. Coincidentally, the six month time limit imposed under the UK law which has prevented BHP from coming back and making another bid for Anglo, expires on Friday. There you go, okay.
New gaming laws landed in Victorian Parliament yesterday with major changes aimed at nullifying problem gambling Sean.
Things like the maximum amount in a machine at one time goes from one thousand dollars to one hundred dollars. Machines will be forced to slow between each game. Card and play will also be introduced. Basically, you have to use a card. The hope there is it can limit how much money a gambler can use. Almost thirty percent of Victorians who play gaming machines experience gambling harm, and the government is trying to do something about it car dealers.
We mentioned this at the top of the show. Car dealers are being forced to sell luxury electric vehicles at a loss as demand at the top end succumbs to changing consumer tastes and competition from Chinese evs.
Dealerships reporting too many seventy thousand dollars plus evs, including from manufacturers like jqu and Mercedes beans BMW, according to the fin Review. A report by investment bank Molus says the local market is mismatched at the moment. Too many prestige vehicles on the lots, just when the cost of living crunch is binding doesn't work, could get worse next year. Apparently, under the government's new Vehicle Efficiency Standard legislation, car manufacturers are incentivized to increase their volumes of low emissions vehicles. That might be a hybrid, might be an EV, so they're certainly incentivized to get those onto the lots here in Australia. Now, that happened in the UK, and what ended up happening is prices fell, so not just evs, but also the secondary market used evs, their value fell. That could well happen in Australia. Another big factor here is the success of BYD. Its growth is much stronger than Tesla and also charging infrastructure in Australia, it still remains too problematic for many buyers.
Okay. Turning to international news now and US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel mccron are expected to announce a ceasefire in Lebanon between armed group Hezbollah and Israel imminently, according to a report on Router's.
Very imminently, Michael, we do this very early in the morning, so it could happen anytime. In Washington, White House National Security spokesperson John Kirby said we're close, but nothing is done until everything is done. The French presidency said discussions on a ceasefire had made significant progress. In Jerusalem, a senior Israeli official said Israel's cabinet would meet overnight to approve a true steal with Hesbler signs of a diplomatic breakthrough, though we're accompanied by heavy Israeli airstrucks on Beirut's hes Blow controlled southern suburbs as Israel pressed on with the offensive it launched in September after almost a year of cross border hostilities.
Finally, Sean, how about this one? General Motors has taken a major step towards competing in Formula one car racing under its Cadillac brand as the sport expands quickly in the US.
You're a fan of F one, No, people in this house are a fan of this of F one and the Drive to Survive Netflix show effectively opened up the US market because NASCAR had a hold in the US market, of course, the biggest market in the world. Well, F one have gone from one race a year to three. They're about to go to four races in the US a year. Big, big business there.
It seems like the growth of that sport has rivaled only by the growth in pickleball. Yes, isn't that an extraordinary success story. I know we're getting off topic here, but seriously, anyway, back to General Notice.
So everyone said it has reached an agreement in principle with the US car maker General Matters, under which Cadillac will become the eleventh team on the series grid from twenty twenty six, a significant breakthrough in the talks between the two sides. Although GM's application to join the F one World Championship is formally still ongoing. Liberty Media owns its owned F one since twenty seventeen, and the sport has expanded into the US new races in Miami and Las Vegas. GMS plan to join F one highlights its attractiveness not only as teams have sought in value due to the growth of the sport, but also because of limits placed on how much they can spend on developing cars. It sort of protects shareholders from runaway costs. So if you're a GM person, there's a limit to how much they can spend on the F one. According to the FT, General Motors President Mark Russ said it was an honor to join F one and describe the sport as a global stage to showcase engineering expertise and technology leadership at an entirely new level.
Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview with Neil Rogan, Managing director and head of Distribution at Russell Investments and coming out in just a few hours. Sean, you better get cracking the Fear and Greed newsletter, the free weekly newsletter. Head along to Fearangreed dot com dot a you and sign up for that one. Any idea on what you're going to be unloading on in this about your opinion, your insight, your take on a whole bunch of stories.
Yeah, I mean one thing, Donald Trump. I don't want to ride about him. But oh my god, there's some revisionism going on at the moment. People saying, look, he won't be as bad. People making up reasons to like Donald Trump driving me crazy.
Oh okay, we're going to get your saw pure unadulterated, unfiltered inner thoughts today.
Which would be very confusing. If I actually did do that, I would subscribe.
For that Fear and Greed dot com dot au. Sign up for the newsletter. It comes out in a few hours. Thank you very much, Seoran.
Thanks Michael.
It is Wednesday, the twenty seventh of November twenty twenty four. Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson And that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.