Sean Aylmer and Michael Thompson go head to head on the top business stories of the week, with Fear & Greed colleague Adam Lang adjudicating.
This is the weekend edition of Fear and Greed, daily business news for people who make their own decisions. Are Michael Thompson and good morning.
Sean Aylmer, Good morning, Michael.
Now Sewan. Our weekend show is vastly different to our weekday show because here this is a competition. We are each nominating what we think is the biggest business story of the week, the most remarkable business story, a sleeper story which is one that's kind of flying under the radar a little bit, or is going to be a bigger story further down the track. So we've got to do a bit of kind of fortune telling there and then our favorite story as well as another category. And because it's a competition, we need a judge to decide a winner, and that judge is our Fear and Greed colleague, Adam Lang Adam, good morning.
Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Sean.
Morning Sleepy.
We've had a little incident this morning, Yes, a reportable incident.
That normally, normally this recording would have happened half an.
Hour ago, half an hour ago, an hour ago.
I'm being kind, I'm being generous. One of the three of us, the one who was tasked with keeping us in line with order and responsibility and all this kind of thing. We were just sitting we were sitting in the studio, Sean and I was looking at each other, going, what's going on here? A rare event.
It's like time stood still and in a way didn't matter.
I slept in. I'm very sorry, wow, very very For new listeners, Adam is the pedant. He's the guy that gets there at two minutes to see.
Stop praising me.
He loves spreadsheets, he loves you know, when you buy something on the company credit card, which doesn't happen that often, you get this email, did you spend seven dollars fifty one? And do you have a receipt?
Look, I'm just thinking on behalf of the A.
That's our man, Adam.
They need and want to know.
Anyway, Adam, I am hoping that this will not kind of impair your judgments this morning. No, it's certainly not going to make them more erratic than they usually are. I don't know that's actually possible. What just very quickly, because we want to get straight into the show this morning. Good, What are you looking for? What are the criteria that you will be searching for as Sean, and I give you our story nominations. Very good.
So we have the biggest, the most remarkable, the sleeper, and the favorite story of the week categories. All four categories will be judged on this topicality, timeliness, economic impact. Because we're a business news podcast, my subjective bias. I'd like it if you play to that little and of course the theatrics, the melodrama bring it.
All right, Okay, I think we can tick most of those boxes. Shall I go first? Seann? Are you okay with this?
If I go first for the biggest I would love you to go first.
Well, I am talking about the there's only one contender actually for the biggest story, so it's a little bit unfairst. What we used to call in high school a non debate, like denying the opposition of debate in debate.
You're a debater at school, yes, of course I was a nerd.
Was Yeah, don't you like you can talk?
Heck I embrace.
He would have been the debate captain. Yeah.
Yeah. The economic growth, we need to talk about the economy. The Australian economy grew by just n point three zero point three percent in the September quarter, that is not zero point eight percent, zero point eight percent annual growth in GDP. How like this is me almost in a panic about the stuff, about the stuff the economy excluding the pandemic. Right, what's happened? Michael tell us that is the weakest, the weakest annual GDP figure since the early nineties recession. The last time.
Growth was this bad except for the pandemic. Don't forget it.
I did say that. I did say that you were over me. You tuned out, your eyes glazed over, and you closed your ears, and you just switched off, keep going. The last time growth was this bad, I touched myself was on the charts.
Hmm, what's her name?
Christis great band magnificent singer I'm Too Sexy was also there as well, right, said Fred, Yes, some of our listeners might not have even been alive when economic growth was this bad, many of them.
Yeah, like this is this is extraordinary stuff. Yes, it is. When and when you take a deep dive, right, it's just like a as I'm doing this little deep diver look more like a meerkat than anything else kind of diving. But and I realized now that doing this, that video is going to end up on our Instagram or something. So I'm filled with regret. The trade and residential construction added slightly to growth, Lower consumer spending detracted from it. All Right, private sector demand going backwards without public sector spending here is the key. Right, here is the key to all of this. Without public sector spending, we would be in serious trouble. Right now, we had Treasurer Jim Chalmers making the comment that the private sector needs to drive growth from here. That is a call to arms to the business community to save the Australian economy. Now Business Business has hit back at that, telling Jim Chalmers that hey, you're the problem mate. The bosses of BHP and we's farmers have said, if you want the private sector to recover, if you want us to lead this charge, then you need to make some changes. You need to overhaul the uncompetitive tax system. You need to reverse the changes that your government has made to IR laws, to industrial relations laws. It is on. This is a battle between the government and business. Now. The RBA meets next week. They would have been surprised, I suspect by these numbers because they were forecasting higher growth by the end of the year. They are still though focused on inflation and getting that lover. So no rate cuts anytime soon. Biggest story of the week by far economic growth and what it now means for this showdown between government and business in Australia, what it all means for every single one of us living in this country. Sean over to you.
When everyone woke up on Thursday morning, Friday morning, even this morning, do you think their life changed because we had an economic growth figure of zero point three percent during September quarter?
I suspected did.
What about if they went to the shops. What if they went to Woollies to buy their favorite tonic water for example, not on the shelf. What if they went to buy their favorite spread for breakfast?
The humanity?
The humanity? What if they went to do their shopping basket and couldn't find the third day one the biggest story of the week in terms of actually impacting people as opposed to some academic economics out there. Michael, you were talking about was it a final public demand? Right? I don't even think you knew what that means. That means government spending. I put it into English. If you got to talk to people, public demand is government spending? Everyone out there, right, Michael, I had know any what he was talking about, what really mattered this week?
How dare you? How dare you?
Adam penalized this man for new listeners. Normally I always did the economic stories, but the atrocious behavior of both Michael and Adam meant I had a dummy spit about four months ago. I mean it was deserve. I mean I should have had a dumby spit, and I refuse to do economics for the rest of the year. So we end up with Michael doing economics, talking about stuff he has no idea about anyone.
You know what, you know what, as the man of the people, this guy over here, the heavy lima, the meerkat in the studio, I am happy to take on that burden because you know what, I talk about, how it affects me, and if it affects me, it affects every day. Joe's ricks and you're talking about Frannie's in the street. Why are you talking about final public demand, Sean? The big story is the fact you got a Woolies. The shelves aren't stopped. It's because of a warehouse workers strike. Three sites in Victoria, one in New South Wales. It's also hitting endeavor group outlets. That's Dan Murphy's BWUS. Now Willies has been negotiating with the United Workers Union for four months. They want a pay increase of will over twenty five percent over three years. They also want Woolies to scrap a new set of rules around how fast workers operate. That seems to be the pointy end of it at the end of the day, right, what affects people in real life, it's whether or not you can go to the store, buy your goods, get your stuff for Christmas. I mean, this is happening in December, which is the biggest time of the year for Woolies in terms of sales, so they'll lose tens of millions of dollars on the back of it. But the common folk, Michael, the common folk who just want their what is it?
Eagle flower?
What elderflower? Elderflower? The biggest question, the biggest concern most people have is whether this story will finish before Christmas. This is going on.
Rob Scott, the boss of Wars Farmers, not Woollies, boss of Words farmers. He came out and said, repercussions are we far reaching. Industrial disputes are eating into supply chains that's going to be felt in prices. We're going to end up with higher prices. Infation is going to kick off again. That's kind of what he was inferring much whether it's quite true. Of course, we've got to cost a living crisis going on this. I mean, Michael, I appreciate your story may win this because Adam likes all that boring academic stuff. But in terms of what actually affects people, what matters whether or not you can buy your stuff out of Will Coles or Dan Murphy's that's what matters, Adam.
I love that Dan Murphys is singled out there, and so far you've mentioned Gin and Tonics. It just it feels as though it is Christmas. You might have a problem. Sorry, Adam, over to you for your judgment.
Well, look, I like Sean, are very concerned about the Great Fever Tree Crisis of twenty twenty.
Fever Tree. That's it. That's it, the fever Tree crisis. I like it.
This is the struggle of the people. However, I must give this one to Michael. This week GDP figures have it the biggest story of the week. Well done, Michael.
Why because it was so well argued because of the final public demand. Whatever the hell that is.
I don't even remember saying those words. It's a source stick after that.
Look, I think we're all feeling it, right.
It's about in bullies, that's right.
It was just in the fever Tree aisle, that's right, and every cereal as well special k hey, adam, milk adam.
What do you think of this showdown between business and government? Just like those business leaders just throwing down there.
I don't don't.
I loved, absolutely loved.
Come on, come on, this is just take the breaks off. Just business doing its normal thing, like the unions do there, like the government with normal things. I'm not arguing against that. I'm not saying it's a bad thing, but they're just the politics of it happens day in, day out.
Even when Parliament has stopped, it's still.
Asolutely Christmas day, I'll be having a crack. Really well, let's go into the most remarkable story. Michael can't get first? Yeah, please your leader one nill Yeah, try.
And redeem yourself, Sean. So that's that's nasty. You know what, in the spirit of Christmas, Christmas is coming, you know what, Sean, Just.
Just do your best, No that's not condescendary praise. There most remarkable story, one of the stories of the year, I would say, certainly this week was a critical point. Bitcoin hitting one hundred thousand US dollars a unit that is truly remarkable. Let me quote from that August institution, the Reserve Bank of Australia. Cryptocurrencies have no legislated or intrinsic value. They are simply worth what people are willing to pay for them in the market. End quote. Clearly, there are people in the market willing to pay one hundred thousand US dollars a year for one bitcoin. Now to surge this week came after President elect Donald Trump nominated a crypto enthusiast, Paul Atkins, to be the next chair of the SEC. The SEC syscurries an exchange commission. It's the regulator in the US. The regulator at the moment doesn't particularly like cryptos. The Biden administration doesn't particularly like cryptos. Well, when Donald Trump gets the gig, they're all gonna love cryptos. And that means that bit coins up forty percent in the last month, Ethereum forty percent, Binance twenty two percent, Rolana twenty five percent. How Aboutkadano. This is a blockchain technology. It's up a two hundred and twenty seven percent. Doge Coin, a favorite of Elon Musk, up one hundred and seventy hundred and eighty percent. Now, keep in mind there are about ten thousand cryptocurrencies out there. Many are inactive, but there are still thousands that are active. The fact that these currencies, which can I repeat to you in the August words of the Reserve Bank, no legislated, no intrinsic value. The fact that bitcoin's hitting on a hundred thousand US dollars remarkable. Adam, Oh no, not Adam, Michael, Adam, declare me when I move on.
There's a little bit kind of preemptive there. You might have gone off a little early.
You've got to admit it's pretty good. You got your work cut out for you.
Now, Michael, I look at Michael. Now yeah, hang on, hang on. I'd like to see the mere cap business.
Now a little reminder for listeners that the judge is supposed to be impartial.
I'd also like to remind listeners that the judging is totally arbitrary.
You don't need to remind listeners of that sort. And if they just listen to one episode, they will identify that themselves quite quickly. Look, we witness something truly remarkable, truly, truly truly remarkable this week. Not something that we would have seen coming, like with say bitcoin surging. It's been surging on and off all you're setting records for most of the year. This is a look. This week, we saw something happen that came out of the blue. It shocked the world because it took place in one of the economic powerhouses of the world and of Asia, specifically in South Korea. Right the South Korean president yunsuk yol.
We've had him on the show affair bit, haven't we.
I will turn off your microphone. I have the power to do this Sean if need be. He imposed martial law on the country overnight on Tuesday. He did it in an unscheduled broadcast, declaring that he needed to purge the country of anti state forces because basically using the threat of North Korea working with the opposition and other groups, and said that he'll root out the conspirators, he'll normalize the country. Well, well, the people did not stand for that. The whole thing lasted what four or five, six hours before, opposition MP's managed to get into parliament passive vote rejecting martial law, and the military which had been surrounding parliament was withdrawn. If you've seen the pictures there were, these are remarkable images and videos of the military and the civilians and the politicians trying to get past them, and the military didn't even want to be there. They basically were saying like almost, I'm sorry, I don't want to be doing this. Is it just we just have to do it? Do you forget?
Did they really say that? Did you hear them say that?
Well, I don't speak the language, but I am reliably informed based on the commentary that I read. Sean people forget this. But South Korea has a brutal past of oppression of coups and violence. It hasn't always been the economic powerhouse that it is today. It is the home. Keep this in mind, Adam, pick up your pen, write this down. South Korea is the home of global giants like Samsung, like LG, like Kia, like Hey Yu Day. So the fact that this even happened at all is just remarkable. It has a major flow on effect to global markets, to the countries that trade with South Korea including Australia. Never mind the fact that a deep sleeper, let's just call him Adam Lange, if he had gone to sleep on Tuesday night, right, he would have woken up fresh as a daisy on Wednesday morning without even realizing that anything had happened. It all took place, All of this turmoil took place within those hours when people would normally be sleeping. It is a remarkable and really troubling period for South Korea. Adam.
So, look, it's not an easy win, but it is a win to Sean the one hundred thousand US dollar mark on crypto and I really am perplexed by cryptos. And then look, it's a spectacular and remarkable story on South Korea. Michael, well done. But one hundred thousand bucks for something that's not worth anything, it's really incredible. So well done, John, you win.
I I'm just slightly peeved that it wasn't an easy win.
Oh no, we are about to see another legend win Sean Aylmer, dummy spith. These things are happening more and more regularly. Let's take a quick break. We will come back in a moment and find a sleeper story of the week. All right, Sean, we are looking for a sleeper story of the week. Now. A sleeper story is, of course, one that is flying under the radar a little bit, or or one that is going to become a bigger story further down the track. And therefore the fuse was lit on that story in the past week. So I'm going to go first on.
This, sorry, sleepy story, just refuse has been the one, A low profile story, one we haven't heard.
Okay, go on, did you really need to point that out? Because you there feels very deliberate new listeners. It's important that they know this is about a story that you've never heard of. Go on, Okay, might as well exactly a low profile story, but but it is one that we are going to be hearing about for a long, long, long time to come. The fuse, i can assure you, has been definitively lit this week. The outgoing US President Joe Biden has pardoned his don't don't make that face, Adam.
Tell me there's something there's news here I haven't heard before.
Joe Biden has pardoned his son Hunter for federal felony gun and take wait, what's that is not the sleeper element. Just let me give you the background. Okay, jeeps, just calm your farm. Pardoned his son Hunter federal felony, gun and tax convictions. It was it was a controversial decision because he'd previously promised not to use his powers to benefit his family. So as further background, Hunter Biden was convicted in two cases. It was one in California one in Delaware. He was waiting on what his punishment was going to be. The pardon means he's going to avoid jail. Now. The thing is, the thing is here, Hunter Biden has been used against Joe Biden throughout his whole presidency. He had a drug addiction and associated problems there. The reason why this is so controversial, and the reason why it is a sleeper story that we will be hearing a lot about in various contexts into the future, is that Joe Biden said Hunter Biden's charges were political, and Hunter Biden was singled out. That's why he was pardoned. Now does this sound familiar to anyone else? It is the same argument that Donald Trump makes alleging that the judicial system and the Department of Justice in the US is biased against him.
Now, point of order, judge point of order. So we have heard a lot over the last few minutes about how this week lit the fuse to something totally new. Now, in the last thirty seconds, I think Michael said, so, does this sound familiar? Does this sound like Donald Trump? Just pointing that out on you go. Michael's leading with his chin there.
I don't care what either of you say. You know, I don't even care if I win.
Shaping up well.
Donald Trump is no stranger, of course, to pardons. Right. At the end of his last presidency, he pardoned a whole lot of very colorful characters. It was a bit of a pardoning free for all things like kind of campaign finance crimes, all that kind of thing. I don't envy Joe Biden's position. It would be awful seeing his son go through this. But by saying it was political right, that's the key here, and using his powers to pardon this is done. Joe Biden and the Democrats have lost the moral high ground on this issue, and you can bet your bottom dollar that Donald Trump will not let them forget it. That's why this is the week in which that fuse has been lit. Because of the use of that term that the charges were political, therefore justifying a pardon. There you go done. That's it all done. It's it's probably probably probably out with your words. No, I can't. I can't just I'm not. I'm not going to give in. You know what, I've made this mistake before where I just capitulate and just go no, no, no, Sean to it. I deserve to win. What's your story, Sean?
Sure, we're at the top of the market. We know all about that. The S and PI SEX two hundred hit a new record high this week. You know the story, come off bank doing really well? Wise, Teak Global, Goodman Group, et cetera, et cetera. What's really interesting this week, though, The sleeper part is if you weren't paying attention, you wouldn't have realized that a couple of owners of really successful companies are selling down their stock. Do they know something we done? Do they think the market's at the peak? Do they think it's time to get out now? The founder of Buy Now, Pay Later group zip CO, guy called Larry Diamond. He resigned. He cashed in one hundred million dollars of shares. He's going to found his own home office. He started the business in twenty thirteen, he flated. In twenty sixteen, it got to his highest twelve bucks a share in the COVID days fell to his lowest twenty six cents late last year. Up seven hundred percent over the last twelve months. He's just gone, eh, I'm out of here. Promedicus incredible company run by a couple of guys. Were founded by a couple of guys, Sam Hoopert and Anthony Hall, who still run it. They sold two million shares on Tuesday night, worth about half a billion dollars. It spooked the market just to touch that. Had to come out the next day and say, hey, we're not selling anymore now. This company, it's radiology imaging, makes X rays and the transfer of X rays and the diagnosis from X rays much easier. I reckon. It's the best large cap of the last year. It came into the top one hundred in March, now top twenty five stock up two hundred percent of the past year. It's only got two big shareholders, the two founders, Hoopert and Hall. They own about twelve billion dollars worth of stock. But they've started selling. So you just wonder when founders start selling, do they know something we don't know. That's why I think it's a cracking sleeper story. We have the market at a high, but people in the middle of it, they're just starting to sell down.
And obviously we're not investing podcast and.
Absolutely not do not take any investment advice from us whatsoever because we don't do it for profession. Go and find a financial advisor.
Yeah, well said Adam, what do you think.
Bro brou sean Win?
The founders selling down is absolutely a sleeper story.
And from a man who knows sleep, very.
Good Yes for someone for video with sleep ZIPC promedicus people selling out and look good on them. They've created wealth for themselves.
Good on them and so well played.
You know, I think that's a great sleeper story.
Two one to one.
Normally Adam's judgments are a lot more than both. They're very short today.
Well when you when you're not adding much did you.
Just say when I'm not adding much? Short?
So, Michael, let's move on to our favorite story of the week.
You go for it, just want there to go for please?
It's always fortunate enough this week to be invited to the launch of Future Generation Women Now.
Future is our invite? Yeah, I just love how how he opens with that. It's just more just just rub it in that. Hey, I was invited a little bit of salt in you.
Yeah. Sorry, go on, God, it's difficult putting up with you two. Future Gen Future is a fantastic organization. It's an investment House's got about one hundred million dollars under management. It raises money for charities. What it does investors put their money into it. They then get so Future Generation run by Jeff Wilson who from Wilson Asset Management, Caroline Gurney. What they do is they take them maybe they find fund managers to pro bono invest that money. The fees that they would normally charge goes to charities. As a result, about ninety million dollars has gone to charities over the last ten years from Future Gen. It is fantastic organizations. They've created it. Michael beat this story. Judge intervened. We like it. They've got a new fund, Future Generation Women. It'll be an unlisted trust part of the Future Gen group. All the investing in this fund will be by women fund managers. It's the idea is that it actually helps drive strong gender equity practices. There's no performance fees, no management fees. The goal is to provide strong returns. One percent of assets each year will go to nonprofits, particularly nonprofits that help economic equality or inequality and opportunity for women and their children in Australia. Now, the Mindaru Foundation Andrew and Nikola Forrest Foundation has committed one hundred million dollars to it to kick start things off. Now, remember this is an investment, a one hundred million dollar investment which they're giving to future Gen women to invest. They still own the money, they get the benefit of the returns, and the returns from Future Gen have actually outdone the market over the last ten years. The fact that this fund is specifically managed by women who in terms of acamics studies, women manage better than men and is raising money for charities to women and their children just a cracking idea, I think. Jeff Wilson, Caroline Gurney, congratulations, it really is something that you know, we in such a wealthy country should be more philanthropic like the US is, and this is the way of doing it. And I just cracking story. Michael Thompson, ob do you beat that?
That's that is a really good story. Sean Adam's gonna criticize my story. I just know it, feel it. I feel it's in my bones. It's going to say that's not news. But I don't care, Adam, I don't care. This is big news for shoppers. It is big news in the world of retail, and it is a trend, and it is a revelation, revelation. We might be in the middle of a cost of living crisis, but customers don't care so much about price. What they don't they care about what, They care about service. They care about delivery. Right major US retailers such as Amazon and Walmart and Target, they have realized this and they have gone from kind of two day delivery, then one day delivery, the same day delivery. They'll often charge for it, obviously because it's it's an expensive process getting things out so quickly, and Amazon found, surprise, surprise, that speedy deliveries make customers both loyal and more willing to spend money. This is a trend that is emerging. It is a realization of revelation out of the US, and it is making its way slowly here. Walmart's doing delivery in as little as half an hour. That is something quite extraordinary because it is so close geographically to a lot of people within the US. Target is nearly a day faster than it was a year ago. The revelation right deliver fast customers keep coming back a lesson for Australian retailers, and a lesson in particular if I may to a to one particular retailer in Australia, it might be one of the large grocery chains in your neighborhood. Yeah that one day this week it.
Was shell stocked, or not that shells stocked.
The shells were stocked on this particular one. So it could rhyme with I don't know, moles or balls or so, I don't know. I'm not very good with rhyming words. Yeah balls, there we go anyway. Anyway, So we paid for these super fast like the fast delivery, so it gets there within.
Hold on, no, no no, no, hard to step back. So you do home delivery from your supermarket? Yes?
Do you?
Adam?
What?
Oh ah?
I want to choose? And are so so millennial here, ladies and gentlemen. Is the greatest demonstration of the generation gap that you will ever see with you totally so so right. We paid for the the like the fast delivery, so it gets there within pretty much an hour, okay, from the time that you order.
It, and so premium involved for that.
Well not if you are his savings hack. Not if you are like members of the various kind of loyalty things and you get like the annual kind of subscriptions, you actually get kind of free delivery and things, and you get free express delivery, which is amazing. Right, but but wait for this. Okay, So the groceries arrive normal practices that they put them at the door, right, take a photo of it, knock on the door, and away you go. Okay, great, this particular delivery driver, Okay, middle of the day, midday, burning hot sun, leaves all of the groceries at the end of the driveway, including all of the frozen goods. Just watching from the window, Michael, it just so happened to walk past the window, see him unloading. Run out. What do you save my bananas? I said, what are you doing? And you know what he did? He drove off with half the bag still in his boot, really run away.
Not that this show is about personal gripes, so Michael tends to go there quite regularly.
But isn't that extraordinary? So anyway you can imagine, you can imagine that a complaint was made.
I could imagine right onto the phone.
And you probably you probably drove to the supermarket, spending all that time doing the complaining, having to actually make the trip anyway.
You poor sweet boomer. No complaints are made online.
Hey, hey, I take that as an insult. I am not a boomer. That is like the ultimate insult.
I'm ex yep, I know, I know, I really wanted to do burrow in under the skin there anyway, Shore you wrap this done?
I just had to get that off my chest. I'm sorry I took a little bit of extra time, but I feel batter. Yeah, something of an indul future, Jen, what a great.
Story and delivery customer service? Who would have thunker customer service counts? It's a draw on that one. Even can't split them both great stories.
So I know you have your hands in the air because you are surprised you've got a point or a half point of that. But that does mean two and a half to one and a half.
It does Sean's one on the story count. Okay, in emphatic way.
We don't need to do a points count.
Yes he does, yea. And for new listeners, as Adam is going through, he is giving each category a score out of like twenty five or something, and then he adds it all up. And so there is a chance that while Sewan has won two and a half to one and a half overall, that I could have actually snatched a points victory here.
You could have, but you didn't. It's ninety two to ninety one. Very much.
That is so much closer than I was expecting and honestly closer than I deserved.
What listeners need to realize a fantastic story for Adam is twenty four. A really really bad, disastrous story is like twenty two and a half.
Yeah, twenty one maybe at the bottom.
Good good show, good effort, Thank you for arriving, Adam, high quality battle. Thank you both, Thank you.
Sean, thank you Adam, Thank you Michael.
Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and x O Michael Thompson. And that was Fear and Greed. Have a great weekend.