FEAR & GREED | Business NewsSean Aylmer and Michael Thompson go head to head on the top business stories of the week, with Fear & Greed colleague Adam Lang adjudicating.
This is the weekend edition of Fear and Greed, daily business news for people who make their own decisions. Are Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean.
Aylmer, Good morning, Michael, Sean.
Our weekend show. It is all about the two of us, each nominating what we think is the biggest business story of the week, the most remarkable business story, a sleeper story, which is the one I always struggle with it as the one that's kind of flying under the radar a little bit, and then our favorite business ish story. It's a competition, a fierce competition, so we need a judge to pick a winner each week that judges our Fear and Greed. Colleague Adam Lang Adam, good morning.
Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Sean Morning.
Judge Adam, morning, Adam.
Can you vary very briefly, just tell us what you are theoretically looking for today.
My notional criteria topicality, timeliness, stories with big economic impact is what we want. I'd love it if you play up to some subjective bias of mine, and please if you can a little melodrama.
Right right, well, I mean, listeners, forget everything Adam's just said, because irrelevant judging you like.
How he just finished giving those and just Sean and I just there for a minute ago, whatever matter? Do they matter? Look, I'm going to go first because we are today is all about brevity. M what what a massive, massive weeks for the economy as brevity is key today though, gentlemen, in three sentences only allow me to summarize the biggest week of the year for the Australian economy.
I certainly hope something happened.
Number one, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates on hold, but opened the door.
Well, off we go, let's have a party, opened the door. Sean, Yes to maybe to maybe maybe.
Considering maybe considering rape cuts in the future. There we go a.
Few caveats in that one.
That's number one. Sentence number two mm hmm. Then came the most staggering set of unemployment figures imaginable. The Melbourne Cup doesn't stop the nation these jobless figures. Did you know why? Because it fell to three point nine percent to three point nine the last since March Sean, everybody stop when it was it was expecting everyone was expecting it to be inching higher. And no, it's just got you know what guys, I'm gonna do my own thing. I'm going the other way three point inch lower. Yeah, a little shimmy the disrespect today. So that sentence number two, there's obviously been a few little extra sentences scattered throughout sentence number three. If I may just wrap it all up in one final sentence, ignore everything else I've just said, they don't count. My sentences are the ones I did you know? I've made a rod for my own back here by announcing that I would do it in three sentences, but we all know I can't. We started the week this is context, right. We started the week with a lot more hope, but we were given hope. We were gifted this idea that interest rate cuts are on their way, and we finished this week with those hopes being dashed because the labor market, Australia's extraordinary labor market is just too darn strong.
So your biggest.
Story is.
Unemployment, fell, Is that the bottom line?
It was the fact that this was the biggest week of the year. Yeah, and we had kind of Reserve Bank board meeting, We had the opening of the door to interest rate cuts and then bang that door being slammed shut again by jobs.
Okay, I get that Adam always goes to the economic story, right, It's just this predisposition. So I wasn't even going to try except for the fact there are three of the biggest pieces of policy. It's going to affect families, it's going to affect the economy, that's going to affect our whole energy renewal finger me jig for decades to come. These are the three policies or three of the policies that the election next year is going to be four over.
Just say three policies or three separate stories to just say you're combining into one.
Leave it alone, Michael. Three things, three big, big issues. This week, the Prime Minister said the activity test for childcare payments would be removed, something that the opposition doesn't want to happen. He also announced a one billion dollar early education fund. The Govern's also considering a scheme where families pay a flat fee of ten dollars and twenty dollars a day for childcare. Think about childcare, It's not about the parents whether they can afford it. It's actually about the children getting access to it. That seems to be missed in this whole debate. If you can have kids ages of three to four accessing early education. Their developmental health is far far greater, and their futures are far far brighter. And you know, my partner Jackie, is very heavily involved in this one, so you have to take my word on this one. It is such an important thing that kids get access to education before they get to school. One big issue between the two parties the second one. The coalition came out yesterday with its nuclear power costings, its modelers Frontier economics reckons it will cost two hundred and sixty three billion dollars less than Labour's renewable roll out between now and twenty fifty. We had the Labour Party coming out and saying, well, there is some pretty heroic assumptions in all that under this coalition's model, which involves seven nuclear power plants, renewable energy would still be the dominant source of power by twenty fifty, responsible for fifty four percent of generation. Nuclear power would be about thirty eight percent rest batteries and gas. The government's policy about ninety four percent by twenty fifty will be renewables. That's big, big story for the next generation. The third big policy debate this week, which is probably not quite as controversial. Michael, stay with me, Stay with me, Yeah yeah, yeah, Well this one, this one is for you the albany I love politics, But oh gosh, this is a long story. The urban eazy government's planning to force social media companies to pay for journalism on their sites. Under these laws, the ATA would impose an annual charge on social media and search companies worth more than the value of the payments they would make to the news publishers. So basically, if you don't pay the news publishers that content, the ATA is going to hit you with a really big tax bill. This ain't a slap on the wrist. This is a punch in the face, huge story. That one. So between child'scare, goodline, nuclear childcare, nuclear slash renewables, and the future of journalism, Big big week. Over to you, Adam.
Okay, Sean, you had me at childcare, you had me at early education. Well played and actually encomposite the three stories by each of you. Seawan, you won that one by daylight.
Well played. Good opening.
Michael, ummy spit, Come on, I normally do the dummy spit at this point.
No, no, no, no, it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. The points are irrelevant. I mean I won that in spirit.
I think not in spirit, Michael, but you won in sequence. You did go first.
Yes, yeah, okay, sequence, you know it doesn't just no one cares. Let's move on the most remarkable story. I think you should go first on this one so you can have the spiritual victory of.
We are at the end of the year. I've just gone for the story I loved this week, which is totally remarkable. It's the big money flowing into sports teams. This week we heard that private equity companies are buying the US NFL teams for the first time, basically Leans, the NFL team's got together and said we're going to allow rule changes which will allow private equity in groups like that to buy in. Now. Some of these teams in the US, the Chicago Bears have been owned by the same family since nineteen twenty. It's phenomenal how tightly it's been held. And NFL teams I'm more expensive, generate more revenue than EPL teams, LA Liga, any other sport bigger than baseball, bigger than basketball. Basically, the Areas Management's bought ten percent of Miami Dolphins franchise. It cost with them about eight hundred million dollars. They'll also get a stake in the Miami Stadium. Also the Formula one Miami GP now Areas is already in a bunch of European football teams and owns a McLaren F one racing team. Then we had Arctos, another pe group. It's quite a minority stake in Buffalo Bills. It's already got its finger in baseball teams. Well that hasn't got its finger in baseball teams. It's got an interest in baseball teams LA Dodgers, San Francisco Giants. Also basketball's Utah Jazz. You know PSG. NFL, right, has the most valuable sports team in the world. Any I want to guess what it is, Adam, you guess what it is?
NFL?
Yeah, football.
Rams.
Wow, that was dreadful. It's one of the worst guesses ever. Think cheerleaders Dallas, Dallas, Dallas Cowboys Cowboys leaders. Okay, yes, yes, yes, yes. The fastest growing sport, Adam, guess what the fastest growing sport in terms of revenue is? Oh my god, basketball nah f one. And that's because it has gone from one race to three races to four races in the US. So that Netflix documentary has.
Introduced general motors getting in.
General motors getting in The only I mean the US league like NFL baseball basketball in the US are the big ones. The only kind of leagues to give them a run is the English Premier League, which is worthway less, La Liga which is Spanish than F one and Buddes League. Anyway, the biggest team the Dallas number one Yankees baseball number two, Ral Madrid is the biggest of the football club's number eleven, Man United number thirteen. Anyway, all this investing into it, it's just remarkable. Is this the category win? Remarkable?
Yes?
Remarkable? How these it is that? The money going into sport, Michael, that's a good story.
It's an interesting story. Is it remarkable? I will tell you what's remarkable, the most remarkable story. And Adam, with one eye on your criteria, the one that has the potential the most the story that has I would I would say, the potential to have an outsized impact.
Right not just on hold on, isn't that sleep.
No no, no, wait wait wait wait wait wait on the planet and arguably much of the whole universe. Right, is the remarkable growth in the wealth, health, and power of Elon Musk.
Oh da'g bring.
I'm going to bring Elon Musk into this because this week has.
Been you mentioned Donald Trump, your band, I.
Got bad news for you, shure, So this week, this week, and this is why this is this week's story. Right, Tesla's share price surged in just one day. For instance, in one day alone, it jumped six percent to be valued at one point three trillion US dollars. It has doubled in value since August, which is staggering. We're only in December. Since August, that is amazing. Now, investors are obviously excited about Elon Musk's relationship with.
The incoming president. There we go, Excellnald Trump.
There we go. So now I'm out. I know you're going to kick me out. And obviously then the hopes that Tesla will benefit from the new administration. Now, when you combine that, right with the massive valuation of SpaceX, which was also this week, got a lot happening this week, quite remarkable. Really, Elon Musk is now worth around four hundred billion US dollars, first person ever to pass that figure. That is staggering. That wealth has skyrocketed in the last week alone SpaceX skyrocketed. Yeah, well done that in itself, congratulating yourself. Well, someone asks of you guys that are giving me props for it? That wealth though, like it's a little bit like it is staggering. It is a little bit kind of grotesque like it is. Yeah, it really is, isn't it. But when you combine it, right with his growing influence as well, obviously money buys power, but he's also got them the political power because he's got the ear of the incoming president who I shall not name for you Sean, his role as co head of the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE, and the ownership of the this is also important, the ex social media platform platform, and he controls the whole thing. So what I would suspect now is that Elon Musk is the single most influential person on the planet. Headlined this week obviously by the enormously remarkablely staggering Yeah someone staggering here, I'm staggering over the finish line increase in his wealth. Phenomenal wealth, phenomenal influence. Remarkable story.
Can I just add to your remarkable story? We talked about this during the week. So what's Tesla worth one point three trillion? Next big is car company Toyota worth two eighty billion? Ford in general matters close to the fifty to sixty billion, Just phenomenal. How big Tesla is?
Yeah, from the valuations of those companies are entirely different, meaning their profit multiples for Tesla is way different to any other car company.
God, you sound like a finance exec. So, oh geez, they're good.
Sean, your story on sports and values incredible. And also two stories in Australia this week.
Does Zone.
Does Zone coming in and rumored or mooted to be buying Foxtel for sports rights as a reflection of those valuations. And also the NRL has announced a new team for Papua New Guinea as part of what is anything from soft diplomacy without nation to a greater expansion of the league.
Six hundred million dollars.
So incredible the value of sport as a business.
What a great story.
I actually think it's a dead heat on this. I was wondering how Sean couldn't win, and then Michael's oh geez, they're all fantastic points. Tesla's share price charging ahead, you said, sir, I'm going to throw charging in there, good ones as also the crypto believer, right, because he's a massive crypto believer and his holdings in cryptocurrency including doge coin. But this could be our first the world's first trillionaire, you know, at four hundred billion. It's all of it remarkable, So dead heat.
All right, So it is one and a half to half. Not quite the result I was hoping for at this point, but there's still time. We'll take a quick break and come back with the sleeper story of the week, all right, Shaw, and we are looking for a sleeper story in our sleeper stories, of course, one where it's flying under the radar a bit or or significantly. The fuse has been lit on it this week and it is going to become a bigger story further down the track, which in many cases is what I aim for. It feels like I'm downplaying this already. Shall I go first? Sure, go for a quick I'm just going to do a quick one because as I said, brevity is key banking in Australia. Adam right, this one down, eh, could be in for a shakeup.
What would be what does a Bank do when it shakes.
Up, it just gets a little bit, a little bit jiggily. The whole building shakes up, yep quakes and this might be God on what happened to me just then?
Do you know what I love is the way that Michael presents a story. Often he goes, I'll go first, because I think he thinks I've got to get in early. And then when the longer the build up to the facts, generally he's going for melodrama points.
New new new, No, no, no, no melodrama here. This is very straightforward, very straightforward story. This one year of renewal for the banks, right, three of the four big banks have experienced change at the very top new CEOs. That is quite staggering. And I suspect I'm the only person to have noticed it as a sleeper story only say that with it straight face. Only Comwealth Bank remains with Matt common A. Zed's now, I'm kind of like I've got a few notes scribbled down in front of me, but I can't stop looking at the two of you because Shawn's is like, I can't wait to see you stuff this up.
I'm intrigued. This is my intrigued face. To see how this will be a Sleepers story. I told you it's because I'm the only one who noticed it.
No, it's that it.
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, it's not. It's not. It's not it's not.
It's not.
A Zed's CEO, Shane Elliott is the latest to go. And we were talking a lot about this this week. I'm not a huge one. No, no, not much because the Sleepers we whispered about it. He's retiring after a pretty successful nine years. The thing is right. The thing is his replacement is a little bit of a wild card. Really, we don't know much about him. He's not a local. He's a Portuguese banker. Yeah, yeah, he joins us from HSBC. He was kind of focusing on Europe and Mexico a lot of people, but Australia's very different. He's an expert in business transitions. A and Z has two big ones underway. He's an expert in digital transformation or that to me sounds like transformation. Things might be going to change. Let me complete the image of a year of renewal for our big banks in just the last week or two. Two of the big four, So that's fifty percent right of Australia's big four banks have announced new chief economists as well and Commonwealth Bank. That is a lot of change this year at our banks. Three new CEOs, two new chief economists. One of the CEOs coming in from overseas, got a background in shaking things up our banks. Usually I would say quite sleepy organizations, very big, very stable, lot of change on the way.
Excellent, big sleeper story, Yeah, big sleeper story. My my sleeper story. My sleeper story is actually a serious one.
So what the actual heck, just a quick whack.
No, no, no, no, well no, actually I wasn't trying to be disparaging of you in that, Michael, because this is kind of like a social justice story and I think it does matter. So this kind of anti wokism has been running around, you know, for quite a while, but there've been a couple of incidents over the past week from very different spheres that just demonstrate its impact. And if we want to know where we end up if we allow anti workism to take control, I think these are the examples of where we do end up. In the US and Anti Woke Investment Fund has been established by a company called Thessuria partners. It plans to not invest in S and P five hundred companies that incorporate things like diversity, equity and inclusion considerations into their hiring processes. Targeted Starbucks first up. It was launched at the incoming president's Marri Lago resort, the home of anti wokeness. That's the first one back in Australia. Opposition lader Peter Dutton said if elected, he won't stand in front of the Australian and the Indigenous flags when giving a briefing Prime Minister Anthony albernez. He does that at the moment. Mister Dutton's argument is that there should be one unifying flag for all Australians. He doubled down later in the week. It suggests Indigenous flags shouldn't fly above the Harbor Bridge. Investors and politicians feel emboldened by the rise of the incoming president to start eating away at many of the hard won gains by minority groups, vilified groups, disadvantage groups. Workism isn't about favoring those groups, it's actually ensuring they least have a say. Now, anti wokeism does the exact opposite the flag. Whether you like the flag or not it has a Union jack on it. To actually suggest that unifies the country, it's just plainly ridiculous, Like it actually makes me angry. I'm not being pro or anti flag. I'm just saying the facts speak for themselves. It doesn't unify, So they don't actually use that as an example, mister Dunton about unifying the country. I just worries me that there are a lot of disadvantage groups out there who are going to have a really tough time in the next three or four or five years because of the uh, practical aspects of anti wokeism. The you are my serious story, Adam.
Very serious, very relevant. There is kind of this war on work. I've actually always struggled with the term woke. I mean, I get it. The origins are that it means awakened, but awakened to what you know, and whether you're four or against this awakening, and how Dutton is embraced that with the flag story, It's like, God, this is just such a it's a non economic story. It's not going to help our country grow. It's not about productivity. It's kind of this distraction.
It's probably anti productivity.
Well totally, the banking changes yes, the banks make up so much. What does it show in the top seven of our in the top seven of our a SX two hundred or bank top Yeah, and so huge economic impact. Massive organization is very important and changing to Nuno Matos, who's got both wholesale and retail making experience like a real wildcut. And what's going to happen with the executive ranks is a shuffle at A and Z like the people who went for the job internally that are not going to get at and how he makes that cohesive. I think that is a bit like it's big on change pro reform. But I actually think Sean has to win this one. It is, after all, one bank of four in the country versus this whole theme, and I think this sleeper theme is pervasive everywhere.
So Sean, I have to give this to you.
You know, Michael, I'm not even going to glad about that because that was how clear cut it's we can just move into our favorite story.
Don't give up, Michael, Oh No, I never give I never give up, And it just makes me skip. Ah tells me with rage, go on, let's go Adam.
Yeah, what's the word do you know? Well, I'm not actually going to ask you for the definitions, but do you know what the demure means?
Yes?
Do you know what selfish? Sulfage's l F E g E?
I did not?
I did not.
Vox uh, well only as vox populi. But no, no, not really.
Know that one. Monticello no sobriquet, Yes, I knew that one. AKA all. They're the five most searched words on Google in Australia this year. Like you, I knew two of the five. There's a whole world out there of social media right where I have a little exposure too, so we're having you know, words like demure as well. But what it does shows that people don't know what demil means, because that's the top searched meaning of demure this year. How to right or Olympics Tyson B. Paul the fight here as I get that, how to mew I mean w T whatever? Like how to mew I mean?
Goodness?
Gracious? What is going on in the world?
How do we've got curious minds?
Michael?
Do you know what?
How do you know what dem is? Well?
Yeah, I look, I read about this in the Fear and Read newsletter. One of the searchers, and I might have been a searcher after that, yeah, but not before.
It's like this, I don't know whole world out there.
You know.
What I think, which is a good thing is in the old days, pre social media, the proprietors of newspapers and radio stations, and they determined what people got to hear and do and see. Now individuals determined because they can access social media, and so it's kind of a big broader world. So I think a good thing. But I was just fascinated this week. My favorite story was the Google you know, top how to top definitions, all that stuff, because I was just staggered about how far outside the zeitgeist I am. I just didn't know any of it.
Michael, that's a good story. That's a good story. I don't mean to finish on a downer, right for my favorite story, it's like a reverse favorite because we all know that AI is coming for our jobs. Yeah, and we know that the tech giants are eating into everything, and without kind of making this sound bigger than it is, nothing and nobody is safe ever. But in the back of our minds, right, we've always known one thing that if all else fails, if every other job has been taken by AI and by the digital revolution. You can always make some money giving your opinion in a focus group.
That's I think that's the medical research. I'm sure I can do that.
It's the universal backup.
Everyone's all has got that in the back of that university student thing.
I think I know where you're going on this.
Because your opinions matter, right, and and and opinions, subjectively held opinions are a deeply human thing until they are not anymore. And that is what we saw this week. We saw one of the most extraordinary uses of technology that I would argue goes beyond what we thought it was previously capable of and would ever ever be capable of. I'm going to get this when Colgate Palmolov, obviously a huge company, has done something unprecedented. They have built digital twins right that are programmed to simulate real life consumers. They are making us all redundant. They are trying to speed up. There's a business reason for this. They're trying to speed up the process of developing new products bringing them to market because all of these companies are under pressure, the cost of living crisis, all of those things. But this is the key here. These are fake consumers, these are digital people, and these digital twins feelings. Yes, and this is the thing that they are providing subjective feedback on new products, on things like as you said, sean toothpaste and soap and shampoo, things that they've never actually used yet they are giving this feedback until now, Until now, I thought that was a uniquely human role. Apparently not, because computers, it seems, can do that too. So without being too without being too melodramatic, no, May God have mercy on our souls. This is the end of all.
Not too much melodrama. They're well done. Can I just Adam, before you make a judgment on this. Michael was saying AI is coming to get our jobs, right, so chat GPT could be getting our jobs that sort of thing. Can I ask both of you two, Adam and Michael, have either of you ever accessed AI with the weekend show? Michael, what about you? I have not, Adam?
Oh, I have.
Absolutely I have when I've had to stand in either one of you, Oh my god, yes, because it's like I so struggle to step into what you both do each week.
Now, don't be nice to us about it. A couple of weeks ago when Michael had come back from holidays and he was judging and you and I were up against each other. The show is fine. The next Michael and I was talking and Michael said, you know that Adam obviously used chat GPT because if if you use chat GPT as well, Michael and I, I mean I do for in another business. There are phrases they're actually like dashes hyphens, like they're in a different setting and format, and so if you look at your notes you can see that. And we've been laughing about you using chet GPT for that show ever since, waiting for the moment to bring it up.
Oh wow, that's so interesting.
So I've written mine, first, checked it, and sometimes rewritten it. Not always, but yeah, I definitely have used chat GPT. But isn't that curious. There's a formatting like a tell if you've used it.
At the moment, it'll get better. And if you talk to chat GPT and like literally have a conversation with it saying hey this sounds a bit formal, or hey why don't you it gets better and better, but so good, it's yeah, it's not there yet anyway, So good judging sorry, back to the back to the stories.
I think it is brilliant and a bit of a favorite spot of mind that we can actually use Google as we do or any search engine and get help on things immediately, like on your phone wherever you are, and also then that we can capture the data on what everybody is looking at. I think it's really fascinating in terms of Michael's slight use of melodrama. But the Digital Twins by Colgate Palmolive was a really interesting story. So I've actually given this to Michael on this one.
I hapey one on melodrama.
Well, yeah, it helped, certainly helped. I put a little bit into it. Is there was there a significant margin between us for that one, because I need it to be a really big part. Not really, No, Well, I would like to officially lodge a protest on the grounds of that being bs. What was the so what were we in the end? Two and a half to one and a half, yes, okay, and what was the quick little points?
Eighty eight Michael to ninety four for Sean landslide?
All right, good judging. Thank you very much, Adam, thank you, and thank you Sean.
Thanks Michael.
Make sure you're following the podcast, and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook and Xi. Michael Thompson that was fear and greed. Have a great weekend.
