Wednesday 4 December 2024
The local sharemarket tops 8500 points for the first time ever.
The founder of buy now, pay later group Zip Co cashes in and heads off to do his own thing
A judge in the US, once again, knocks back a $US56 billion payday for Elon Musk
Plus more on the strike by Woolies warehouse workers and why Qantas loves baby boomers
Plus don’t miss the latest episode of How Do They Afford That? - how to get financial balance in your life. Get the episode from APPLE, SPOTIFY, or anywhere you listen to podcasts.
Today on Fear and Greed, the local share market tops eighty five hundred points for the first time ever. The founder of buy Now, Pay Later group Zipco cashes in and heads off to do his own thing and to judge in the US once again knocks back a fifty six billion US dollar payday for Elon Musk. Plus more on the strike by Woolly's warehouse workers and why Kwantas loves baby Boomers. Welcome to Fear and Greed, daily business news for people who make their own decisions. It is Wednesday, the fourth of December twenty twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
Good morning, Michael, Sean.
The main story this morning. As a cracker, the Australian share market has topped eighty five hundred points for the first time, taking full year gains to more than eleven percent.
Confidence that Australia's economy will avoid a recession and continue to grow, Hopes that interest rates will start falling next year, and a relatively optimistic outlook for the global of con me is pushing the market to new highs. There's a bunch of companies training at or near record levels. In fact, nine of the top twenty five companies on the ASEX from a broad range of sectors are at highs. Goodwin Group, Macquarie, Aristocrat, Leisure, Weis, Tech Global, Aria, Zero, Brambles, Promedicus, and of course Commonwealth Bank, the biggest stock on the market now worth two hundred and sixty five billion dollars, nearly thirty percent more than number two BHP. The ani real disappointment over the past year or so have been the big miners and the energy companies, and that's on the back of commodity prices. There are actually now some one time blue chip companies that really were downtrodin that are now performing really well over the past year. AMP, for example, is up seventy percent. JB High Fire is ninety percent higher. Quantus Training at record high, up sixty five percent over the past year.
Now, Sean, you've taught me over a long period of time, now that equities are traded on future earnings.
Michael, Michael, you learned.
I not only learned. I listen, I take notes, I study. I'm determined to prove myself to so basically, so, a share price reflects what investors think is going to happen, right so if you kind of just look at that then and look at what the market is doing, it seems like investors are confident about the future.
Right There certainly seems to be a sense that the economy has bottomed, even though interest rates are still at twelve year highs. We'll find out more about that today with the release of the economic growth figures for the September quarter. Economists are expecting jump of zero point three point four point five percent. I would say that compares to the zero point two percent increase in the Dune quarter. Will still probably be in a per capita recession. The reason we are growing is because of the high migration rates, so we're in a per capita recession. That's why it feels sometimes like times are particularly tough, but market makers investors are confident that the worst seems to be over and that's what keeps pushing the local market higher.
Just in the interest of decoding jargon, as we go through per capita recession, what does that mean?
So we have economic growth of let's say half percent, if you break that up into individuals, so per capital per person we have been going. But if you base it on a per person basis, we're actually been going backwards for the last two quarters all this year. In fact, the reason the top line number looks good is we have had this huge migration more people. Therefore, overall the top line number has gone up, but if you split it per person, we've gone backwards.
Okay, thank you for the explanation. Now, Sean, before we leave the local market. We talked about the record high yesterday, but where did it actually finish up?
Oh? I was very excited. I thought it would finish above that eighty five hundred point more. For those who don't follow the markets, that's a pretty significant thing. But alas in the final few minutes it fell. It finished about half percent higher at eight thousand, four hundred and ninety five points, a record close but not quite at eighty five hundred points. Promedicus led the way along among the large caps. That's an imaging company. It raised more than three percent, minor four TOESCU Metals Area that's the online property group, QB, the insurer, Brambles, the palette company, risk trat Leisure, the gaming machine manufacturer. They all raise around two percent. Worst of the large caps were software group Wisetech Global and Woolli's a little bit of corporate news around. Michael Starr Entertainment expects to receive the first one hundred million dollars of a two hundred million dollar debt facility next week. After the casino group met preordained conditions, its share price jump nine percent, best of the top two hundred.
But wow, is this the debt facility that comes with massive, massive interest rate? Is it something about thirteen percent or something.
Off the top of my head. I can't remember quite what it was, but it's huge interest rate. Definitely extraordinary.
I suppose desperate times though.
Right, yeah, absolutely, it needs money. Insurance broke A Steadfast Group share price rose three percent after an internal review found no evidence of improper incentives or compliance manipulation. If you're gonna have a review, you may as well make it an internal review, don't you reckon? And that nothing against Steadfast here. I'm sure that it was all fine, but.
You know, investigate your own problems first, and now, look, we're all clear anyway. So yes, let's go on, let's go on.
Metcash your share price jumper seven and a half percent. Met Cash is the wholesale for groups like ij and Riches and a couple of hardware stores. So we share price jump seven and a half percent after investment analysts upgraded the stock following Monday's half year earnings. And just before we leave sort of the finance world, I suppose a couple of smaller super funds, Telstra Super and Equipped Super, they'll merged create a fund with sixty billion dollars under management and two hundred and twenty five thousand members.
That has been the trend, hasn't it over quite some time now? It's this consolidation of the industry, right.
Yeah, it sure has, and it's been encouraged by regulators, and the funds are doing it more and more frequently at the moment.
Now, can we just talk quickly about Quantus because you mentioned Quantas hit a record share price yesterday. One broker reckons it's only going to get better though, thanks to traveling baby boomers.
Yes, that broker is from investment bank Morgan Stanley. They reckon Quantas and Delta Airlines are two global carriers benefiting and will benefit more from a pivot in luxury spending from basically handbags and clothing to premium travel. There's a real switch going on. According to Morgan Stanley, Global luxury companies like Carrying Montclair LVMH. They boomed post COVID, but in part due to a slow down in Chinese demach Chinese consumers are not spending like they used to. Some of those luxury companies are really struggling. The analysts reckon that the shift is on to travel, particularly baby boomers. They reckon Countisant Delta are set to ride the next wave of luxury spending now Counts. The share price closed up two percent yesterday to nine dollars and three At its worst during COVID, it was trading at about twenty five percent of yesterday's clothes. I think it was two dollars thirty, two dollars forty or something like that. It's now nine dollars and three cents. Quite an incredible ride. And what the guy from Morgan Stanley is saying is that the baby boomers out there, we know there's two and a half million of those people retiring over the next ten years. They've got lots of money and they're going to spend it traveling.
Sean, just tell us quickly about the interview that you have coming up after the show. You are speaking with Josh Simon's the CEO of Vinyl Group, which is a really interesting company it is.
It's got Vinyl dot Com, it's got Jackstar, it's got Vampire, it's got Serenade, Brag Media, which is a rolling Stone and variety. So it's got it is all related around music and popular music, but all sorts of different aspects of it. And so we talked to Josh about what's in the group. It's listed obviously, how he runs it. We also talk about his biggest shareholder, Richard White of Weiss Tech Global fame. He's had a few challenges himself. We're ask him about Richard White and his interest in Final Group. It's just a great chat.
Yeah, it's a good conversation that is coming up after the show. Before that, though, Sean, we've got plenty still to cover, the latest on the Woolworth strikes. We've got the founder who's selling up to the tune of one hundred million dollars, who've got the court decision against Elon Musks, so much more to get to. We'll be back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean Woolworth's says the strike by warehouse workers in Victoria and New South Wales has cut fifty million dollars in sales from its supermarket business.
And counting big problem for Woolies. As we discussed yesterday, it is struggling to keep stock on shells. That includes some liquor outlets now. Woolies spun out in Deavor Group over the past a couple of years ago, and Devor Group owns Dan Murvihi's in BWS. They still use the same warehouse facility. The problem is that Dan Murphy's and BWS and now being hit by this strike and stock is low there as well. Yesterday, Willies applied for an urgent order to ensure access to distribution sites in the two States. It said it's been negotiating with the United Workers Union for four months. The workers won a pay increase of well over twenty five percent over three years, that's well above inflation. The union also wants Woolies to scrap new rules which would discipline workers for not operating fast enough. That's the pointy end of this dispute. It's coming as the company itself is under pressure to keep prices lover, with the HBLEC watching its behavior very closely. November, It's had a very busy time for Woolies and for Endeavor Group. Of course, what they I don't want to do is have this drag on for much longer then suddenly have to rebuild inventory in the run up to Christmas, because that takes time. And Michael, there's only about three weeks till Christmas.
And counting Sean. Now, this next story is it's really, it's quite it's aspirational, and it's inspiring for anyone who started their own business right at any point. The founder of Buy Now, Pay Later Group ZIP has resigned. He's cashing in one hundred million dollars worth of shares and he's going to set up his own family office investing business.
Wouldn't you do that? Oh?
Absolutely, Actually, I don't know whether I'd set up a family office investing business. I think I'll just lie on the beach and just yeah, the terrible financial advice. I just live off the interest of my of my one hundred million dollars.
I think that's an excellent idea. The guy's name is Larry Diamond. He resigned on Monday yesterday. He sold thirty million shares at three dollars thirty five apiece. According to the finn Review. He still has twenty five million chairs, so that's another hundred million or so. He founded the business in twenty thirteen with a guy called Peter Gray, floated in twenty sixteen. It got as high as twelve dollars a share in early COVID days when the buy now, pay later boom was on. Of course after pay was the big one there that was eventually bought by Block. It then tumbled to as low as twenty six cents late last year. Zipco really was in dire straits. Since then, it's up seven hundred percent, the best of the top two hundred over the last twelve days. So mister Diamond, he's cashing out.
Good on him, Yeah, well played. I mean he's earned it. That is a rollercoaster ride, isn't it. The nerves and the stress of trying to build that business and follow it all the way through. He's definitely earned this. Now, this is a fascinating one on law firms are going into non legal advice, picking up business and partners really as well from the big four consultancy firms as they pushed beyond really what is their traditional service lines?
Exactly. Mitter Ellison ten percent of its fee owners are now consultants. According to the Finn Review, the trend is for clients looking to legal firms to provide consultancy work as they shy away, not dessert, but shy away from the big four consultancy groups. We're talking Deloitte, EYPWC and KPMG. Other law firms now offering consulting style services include Ashurst, Clainton, Newts and King and Wood Mallisons. So that's four very large law firms now in consultancy.
Time for an economics lesson here, Sean, I feel like I need a little bell to ring. Remember John Laws with the cow bell kind of thing in the studio. Maybe not might be a slightly obscure reference here, but as soon as we mention economics, I feel like I need a bell now because I know I'm going to get a lesson. Australia's trade surplus fell to its lowest level in six years during the September quarter.
This matters, Sean, it does matter. Export prices fell mostly iron ore and coal to blame for that one. Now, I am going going to have to give you a bit of an economics lesson, So the current account balance is all important. It feeds into economic growth. What's the current account balance? Well, that's the trade balance that you just talked about, plus payments lay made to local and foreign investors, they dividends and sort of shifting of finances across borders and all that, plus other stuff like foreign aid. So you got trade sort of payments, slash, dividends, foreign aid. Put all that together. Deficit of fourteen point one billion dollars higher than expected. That actually detracts from economic growth. So we talked about earlier in the show economic growth being point three point four point five. When you get a big deficit in the current account balance, it detracts from growth. Of course, the September quarter GDP's to do for release this morning will find out how much it's subtracted from growth.
Then Colin's Foods, better known to really to most of us as the licensee of a bunch of KFC stores in Australia and Tuck I think as well, isn't it yesterday warned on downbeat consumer spending and a squeeze in profit margins. Hopefully not to the point where they remember when they had to use havage instead.
Of heavage instead of letters.
Yes, yeah, that wasn't a profit related thing. That a letter.
Shortage, But yeah, no, I think it's a price of the letters went through the roofs. I'm calling it profit related.
Great, I'm on board with that. Please go on.
Colin's food zones two hundred and eighty five of the seven hundred and fifty KFC outlets in Australia. It's also got seventy four stores in Netherlands. In the Netherlands and Germany. You're right, it does. It has twenty seven Taco Bell stores in Australia. It's net profit fell more than fifty percent in the half year to October thirteen. It had to cut its half year dividend as a result. Same store sales in Australia during that six month period were flat. All important same store sales because what they're comparing are stores in the same sorry, are comparing sales in the same number of stores, So even if they increase the number of stores, they're not counting it in that so it actually shows your gross rates. Same store sales anyway, flat in Australia. Down in Europe. Tough market that one, because Miny Gomez that's growing doing all those drive throughs. We've been talking about that a bit. A bunch of Krean style fried chicken grips around. That's on top of McDonald's and Subway, Domino's, PiZZ Art, et cetera. Colin's Food's share price yesterday closed down three percent.
All right. Turning to International News now showing the boss of Intel, which is, of course the one time leader in chip making, has been forced out of the group's board, while Samsung have teamed up with Jeff Bezos, the Amazon founder, to invest in a in video rival.
Do I love about that? How many companies can we get in one sentence? So Intel, Samsung, Amazon, and videot I like it.
That's a lot.
Yeah. The common theme here chips micro chips. Now, of course Intel was the market leader. It never sold to anyone else. It was everything. Well, hasn't it been left behind by Nvidia? It used to be the big company. Now Intel's worth one hundred billion US dollars and Vidia is worth three point four trillion US dollars. Someone had to go. Intel's boss, Pat Gelsinger, took the top jobs three months ago. He vowed to restore its pre eminence. Alas the AI boom has largely passed Intel by its share prices tumbled as a result. Goodbye to mister Gelsinger. Turning to the Amazon Bezos steel, they've invested in a company called tens Torrent. It basically hopes to take on in Vidia. With a lot of these new themes and AI obviously being a massive one, it takes a long time for companies to make money. Now in AI really only one company, and Vidia has made a serious amount of money thus far. The second generation companies, which presumably Samsung and mister Bezos, is hoping Ten's Torrent is the idea that they'll be able to turn around chips fairly quickly and match at least match in video is what they're hoping for. It would be interesting to see if it happens.
So they're really just hoping to chip away in videos dominance. That was lazy. That was horrible.
That was lazy.
That wasn't good. No, that was why, Like when you started this story, I was like, there is an opportunity here, and I couldn't think of anything, and that's why I was silent while you were talking. And then after all that time, I still didn't deliver. I feel like I failed you.
Any new listeners this morning. Occasionally Michael breaks out into a pun filled rant, a pun frenzy, a pun frenzy, and I do apologize for it. Please don't turn us off for it. He gets over it.
It's fleeting. It's always brief. Now, the story that I mentioned at the top of the show, this is just extraordinary. A judge in Delaware has knocked back Tesla's attempt to revive a fifty six billion US dollar as billion with a B billion dollar pay package for Elon Musk, saying that shareholder's overwhelming reapproval was not enough to override her previous rejection of the package.
This has been a bit of a saga. Judge Kathleen McCormick concluded that Tesla's unprecedented effort to push the twenty eighteen pay package through a second time, four months after she first voided it was creative her word, but the board had no ground to overturn her original outcome. According to a story in The Financial Times, Teslam, after finding immediately vowed to appeal against the decision. Mister Musk's response on X was almost Trump esque. I'd say all he said absolute corruption?
Did he say it in all caps? Though?
He didn't only capital A. The punctuation was correct, So not totally like there's a full stop at the end, not totally Trump esque give him, but he'll get there. He'll get It's a shame, isn't it.
The Donald?
Well, let's not go down that path tells The stock has searched forty four percent this year, much of that coming after Donald Trump's election victory. That means mister Musk's stock options have gone from fifty six billion dollars when they were avoided in January to more than one hundred billion dollars. That actually, if he owned them, would put his wealth at about three hundred and forty three billion dollars. In that it obviously includes his stakes and SpaceX X and XAI three hundred and forty three billion dollars. If he's ultimately granted the package, he'd end up owning more than twenty percent of Tesla, up from his thirteen percent currently.
All right, now, a tip for new listeners. You did hear Sean just say it's a shame, and it was about to You're about to share an opinion, a bit of a hot take, a bit of a spicy you kind of opinion on something. Those come out in our newsletter. They are not generally part of the podcast. The podcast is all just pretty straight news. If you want the opinions, if you want the context and why things matter and what Sean really thinks about it. Our newsletter comes out every Wednesday. Head along to Fearandgreed dot com dot au to sign up. So that's coming out and just in mere hours and maybe we'll find out what words come after it's a shame maybe maybe who knows it?
Maybe I will too?
Yeah, you're right, he there we go, all right. Also up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. Josh Simon's from Vinyl Group is our guest today. Definitely worth a listening to that one. Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael. It is Wednesday, the fourth of December twenty twenty four. Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook and X Michael Thompson. That was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.