Wednesday 11 December 2024
The Reserve Bank has opened the door to a rate cut next year, saying inflation is falling.
And more, including:
One of the biggest deals of the year is teetering on the brink after one of the company’s gets hit with a massive tax bill
Google announces the most searched terms and issues for 2024
Plus plenty going on in markets and Rupert Murdoch fails to change the family trust
Plus don’t miss the latest episode of How Do They Afford That? - summer side hustles for adults and kids. Get the episode from APPLE, SPOTIFY, or anywhere you listen to podcasts.
Today on Fear and Greed. The Reserve Bank has opened the door to a rate cut next year, saying inflation is falling. One of the biggest deals of the years. Teetering on the brink, Apter one of the companies gets hits with a massive tax bill, and Google announces the most searched terms and issues for twenty twenty four, plus plenty going on in markets, and Rupert Murdoch fails to change the Family Trust. Welcome to Fear and Greed, daily business news for people who make their own decisions. It is Wednesday, the eleventh of December twenty twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael, Sean. The main story this morning. The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the benchmark interest rate on hold at a twelve year high, as everyone expected, but there are signs that maybe, just maybe they are starting to think more about a rate cut.
Sean, maybe, Michael. Maybe. Governor Michelle Buller said the economy is moving in line with the Reserve Bank's forecasts and if that continues, at some point inflation will move back into the target band and at that point the Board of the Bank will consider cutting rates. She's still very focused on what the data says, and she wants to see two quarters of lower inflation. Data didn't give any timing for any shift in rate cuts, and she said the Board didn't explicitly explicitly discuss cutting rates when it met over the past few days. However, she also said the Board deliberately dropped any mention of rate hikes in the statement that accompanies the end of the board meeting, and that's because economic data is softer. In Reserve Bank speak, when you add something or take it away, it is significant, So rate hikes are off the agenda. All important in this In late January, we get the December quarter inflation data, we get unemployment figures, a couple of those in the next couple of months. We also get business survey data. Now, yesterday figures from National Australia Bank showed that business conditions and sentiment well, sentiment's actually quite weak and conditions are just pottering along. We've had thirteen months with the benchmarkt four point three five percent. If we can look at the business survey data, the employment market, the inflation data, if it all softens, maybe, just maybe we get a rate cut. One other interesting thing. In her press conference yesterday she was us about the incoming Trump administration. Michelle Bulock said tariff's and government spending in the US could be inflationary for that country, though it may not impact Australia too much directly. However, the brewing trade war between the US and China is more of a concern.
Sean. I've got to mention a must listen interview that we have coming up after the show. You're speaking today with Warren Hogan, who's the managing director of EQ Economics, economic advisor at Judo Bank, and he has a very fair, very very good track record for picking what rates are going to do.
And if you are hoping interest rates are going to four over the next twelve months, then maybe Warren's not your man. But as you said, he's done a great job in picking where interest rates are going. Now he says there might be a rate cut, but it won't be to the middle of next year, and he's not even sure that we're going to get one then, so well worth listen.
Yeah. Indeed, just coming up a bit later on after the show, Sean, how did financial markets react to not just the reserve Bank decision, but the commentary around that decision.
Yeah, I mean that's almost more significant. Bond traders have now ascribed a fifty percent chance of a rate cut in February next year and one hundred percent by April. The Aussie dollar, which was training above sixty four US cents, drop back below that mark immediately after the two thirty PM announcement. Now, in the short term, the Aussie dollar depends or goes up and down depending on what people think will happen on interest rates. If rates were expected to fall, than that puts the Aussie dollar under pressure against the US dollar. And that's exactly what happened yesterday.
And what about the AX what happened there.
Well, it had been trading quite a bit lower and then the announcement it came. By the close, it was only down, was less down less than half a percent by the end eight thousand, three hundred and ninety three points. Plenty going on in the market, quite apart from the Reserve Bank announcement. The tech sector tumbled most yesterday, down more than four percent that index. Now, there was a big sell off in pro Medicus, for example, it ended up down eight and a half percent. It has run very, very hard. Maybe there's some profit taking going on, so it gets to a level where people think, Okay, it's gotten so high, we may as well take some money off the table and sell at this point. Certainly, the company didn't release any new news yesterday. Other tech stocks such as Wistet Global Zero and Ria Group also fell sharply. The banks were lower. National Australia or a Bank It was off only three percent. Westpak was off more than two percent. The big winners, though, were the miners, on the back of wor upbeat news out of Beijing. More on that. In a moment, First Few Medals Group jumped six and a half percent. Rare It was up five percent, BHP more than three percent. In terms of corporate news, Treasury Wine Estates bought a group called Stone and Moon. It's a winery in northeastern China, for about twenty seven and a half million dollars. Its share price jumped on the back of that. Platinum Asset Management fell another three percent yesterday. Now on Monday, Regal Partners came out and said we're not going to buy a Platinum Asset Management, though doing due diligence on it. Platinum then tumbled seven eight percent on Monday, another three percent yesterday, not good for them, and MAYA held its annual general meeting yesterday. Chair Olivia Worth said Black Friday sales were encouraging, although it's been a challenging start to the retail year.
Yeah, let's talk about China quickly, Sean. You mentioned the strong performance of the big miners, and that was on the back of hopes that Beijing is about to unveil further stimulus for the world's second largest economy.
So China's polloup burown parliament, let's say, said it would embrace aim moderately loose strategy for monetary policy next year and a more proactive fiscal policy. Beijing has made a bunch of small stimulatory moves over the past three months in terms of interest rates, which is monetary policy, and fiscal policy, which is spending. Hasn't had a big bang. But those comments yesterday suggest that even if we're not going to get a big bang, there's still going to be plenty more coming down the pipeline, and that's what really got iron ore mine as excited yesterday. For example, also helped push oil prices higher. Otherwise, in globle markets. Bitcoins fallen back to about ninety five thousand US dollars a unit, still very high, but it just keeps getting to that one hundred thousand dollars a unit mark and then falls back. Now, it crossed it last week. Obviously, it's tested that a few times since then, but just can't seem to get across the line.
All right, Sean, We've got plenty still to cover. We're talking Rupert Murdoch's legal battle, We're talking Woolworths, more bad news for Wallies, and Google's search terms the top terms for the year. Pretty much as you'd expect, but maybe maybe a few surprises. We'll be back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news, Sean. Rupert Murdoch has failed in his attempt to change the terms of a family trust that would have ensured that his eldest son, Lachlan, gained control of the family media empire when Rupert dies.
That empire that's Fox News, Wall Street Journal, New York Post, The Australian Daily Telegraph, Sky News Australia is a very influential organization. Now in Nevada court ruled against the ninety three year old mister Murdock, rejecting arguments that it would be better for the whole family if Lachlan oversaw the business. Lachlan is currently chair of News Corp. He's more conservative than his siblings, that being James, Elizabeth, and Prudence, all the siblings. The Rupert Murdoch argument was that the News Corp Empire would be more successful if it remains with a conservative bent, and Lachlan is better equipped to do that. However, according to The New York Times, the Nevada Commissioner characterized the plan as a quote carefully crafted charade in quote to permanently cement Lochlan Murdock's executive roles inside the empire, regardless of the impact such control would have over the companies or the beneficiaries of the family trust.
Did you see, Sean, some of the coverage about this talking about the role that the TV show Succession played in this, which I just thought was fascinating, because obviously there's a it is believed that the TV show Succession is loosely based on the Murdoch family and the Empire, and that in a kind of a weird, kind of circular way that an episode of Succession actually inspired action within the Murdoch fan to start taking some steps to kind of preserve the family and just plan ahead for what might happen in the future without spoiling anything to do with the TV show. But I just think it's funny that the TV show that was arguably about the Murdocks has actually then inspired the Murdocks to take some action based on that TV show.
Allegedly Michael allegedly.
Allegedly allegedly yes, good point, wortedly or something yes now showing fund manager Perpetual could be hit with a tax bill of more than five hundred million dollars over the sale of assets to private equity group KKR, potentially halting the two point two billion dollar deal.
Certainly investors things so Perpetual share price fell nine percent yesterday. The Tax Office has queried the sale of some affts of some assets to KKR. The transaction, which still needs shareholder approval, gives KKR the Perpetual name, its corporate trust and its wealth management businesses. They're considered the best of the Perpetual businesses. Yesterday, Perpetual came out and said the revised tax bill is closer to five hundred million dollars rather than the one hundred and six to two hundred and twenty seven million dollar range disclosed in August. What's that mean for shareholders in dollar terms? It means the bid by KKR is worth about six dollars eight a share rather than the previous indication of nine dollars ten a share. Now, when a statement Perpetul said it is extremely disappointed, disagrees with the ato's view. A bit to play out, but you can imagine if shareholders think they're getting six dollars not nine dollars a share, well, that puts the whole bid certainly on night and it may cause it to slip on that ice.
Shan. In politics, there's a storm brewing, shall we saying, over the use of the Australian flag after Opposition leader Peter Dutton said if elected, he would only stand in front of the Australian flag and not the indigenous flag.
So Prime minust Anthony Albanez he regularly holds press conferences, meetings that sort of thing in front of both flags. Peter Dutton told Sky News that Australia should be united under one flag and he would never address the nation with both the Australian and Indigenous flags behind him. Later, Shadow Haam Affairs Minister James Patterson double down. He said Australian needs to have a unifying flag. Now he was referring to the current Australian flag. But I think the point is that it doesn't unify all people that live in this country anyway. That's going on, Michael.
Yes, indeed it is. And just while we're on politics, sewn senior Liberal front bencher Paul Fletcher will retire from politics at the next election. No no, I said his name so oddly just then really got a lot of emphasis on the Fletcher, didn't.
I sorry? Gone. It raises the prospect of Bradfield, a once Liberal stronghold in Sydney's Upper North Shore, going to the Tels next election. It has always been held by the Liberals with a strong margin that is now considered not so strong. It's under four percent now. Mister Bradfield follows Simon Birmingham out the door. Both are considered moderate Liberals. Mister Fletcher, who used to work at Optics, said after fifteen years in politics he needed renewal and plans to return to the private sector.
Got fifteen years in politics is a long time, isn't it ouch?
Yeah?
Indeed, things aren't getting any better at Woolies, Sean, with the New Zealand Competition Regulator filing charges against the retailer and its Keywei rival Pack and Save, claiming they are misleading shoppers on promotional prices and specials. Sean, ah, so familiar, so familiar.
The Commerce Commission's a deputy chair and Cullenan said the regulator was not satisfied that specials really are special. She said supermarkets in New Zealand have been on notice for a long time about having clear pricing and accurate labeling of specials. Woolies has been in New Zealand since two thousand and five, has almost two hundred stores, though earnings have disappointed recently. In Australia, along with Coles, Woollies is fighting action launched by the HABC that alleges promotional prices one hundreds of products were actually higher than a few weeks earlier.
Sean. It's that time of year. Google has released its top search names and phrases for twenty twenty four. Politics, sports, people, pop stars will come out on top.
No surprises, but there is one big surprise. To me, So the US election came in at number one. The most searched phrase was who won the US Election, which I think is ironic because we all found out who won the US election without having to google it anyone. The most searched for Australian was John Singleton, probably as a result of his personal relationship with the Bondi stabbing attacks earlier in the year. The most searched for definition Michael, this is the one that threw me demure de m r.
Oh, yes, yes, yes, yes, you.
Don't know, no, I don't do you. Yeah.
There was a there was a it was a TikTok viral trend earlier in the year, and it was somebody that they were talking about being very mindful, very demure, and so all of a sudden that just took off and everybody jumped on board. It, businesses everyone, and it was so intense for a period of about a week where everybody, every business under the sun, was putting out videos about very mindful, very demure, and then it just died away, as these trends tend to do.
So my sixteen year old I told her this and she goes, oh yeah, yeah, yeah, she'd like of course, what I think is interesting is how many people then don't know what the meaning of the word demure is.
Oh yeah, so they're not actually looking up the trend. They're actually just trying to figure out what the word is.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, the meaning of demure. That's actually what it was.
They're using Google as a dictionary as opposed to actually looking up the trend like you would be doing.
Yeah, okay, thanks that one. The Olympics came in at number two on the list of Australian searches after the US election, then the Euro's football tournament. Liam Payne, who of course fell to his death from a hotel balcony quite tragically in October, was number four. Taylor Swift, who finished her Mega two year tour, was number five. Number six though, was connections. Do you know what connections is? I have no idea, Oh, Jackie and I Avid. It's connections people. It's a New York Times puzzle. So wordle was the big one, but it's added on and it's now the mini crossword was big. Now it's connections. And so they give you a bunch of words twelve words four x four must be sixteen words and you've got to get the connections between It's fantastic. Oh that is good.
Do you need a subscription to The New York Times to play?
Or is it just a yes and you cannot have mine?
I'm pretty sure I know your password anyway, I'm playing Connections today. In international news now serious story Sean police are interviewing a twenty six year old over the killing of a health insurance executive in New York last week.
An incredible story. Brian Thompson was United Healthcare's CEO. He's walking to a conference early one morning before seven am when he was shot from behind in a targeted killing. All along, there have been suspicions that the killing related as much to healthcare companies rather than the individual. A manhunt has been going on ever since. There was a breakthrough when CCTV footage showed parts of the killer's face. A tip from the public said a man fitting the description was at a McDonald's restaurant in western Pennsylvania. Police attended spoke to a twenty six year old Luigi Menngione and discovered he had a fake ID and a gun and silencer similar to those used in the killing. He also had a handwritten manifest so condemning healthcare companies for putting profits above patients. He is now assisting police with inquiries.
Omnicom Group Sean has agreed to buy into Public Group for thirteen billion US dollars that's twenty one billion Aussie. That will create the world's largest advertising company.
So Into Public shareholders will receive Omnicom shares as part of the deal. It's expected to be done in the second half next year. Been a really tough time for ad agencies. Big tech companies have been hoovering up the marketing dollar. We talked about that yesterday the day before. Wasn't it something like seventy two percent spent in big tech companies. Also ad agencies in great creative agencies, but generative AI are creeping into the work of those agencies. The benefit of this big tie up in part its cost savings. The deal will create a company with combined and your revenue of twenty five billion US dollars, well ahead of the now number two London based WPP. It has turnover of about nineteen billion US dollars.
And finally, John China will inquire into Nvidia over suspicions that the US chip maker broke anti monopoly laws around a twenty twenty deal.
The State Administration for Market Regulation opened an investigation into Nvidia's recent behavior, as well as the circumstances surrounding the acquisition of Melanox Technologies. Beijing said the Chinese government approved the deal four years ago. I'm not so happy now now. There was a condition on that Nvidia couldn't discriminate against Chinese companies. The move against Nvidia is Beijing's latest response to escalating US technology curves, and comes a week after the Chinese government banned exports of several materials with tech and military applications, according to report on Bloomberg. In a statement, and Vidia said it's happy to answer any questions regulators may have about its business.
All right, up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. Warren Hogan is your guest today, all about interest rates and the outlook where things might be going in the next year or so. It's coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearanngreed dot com dot au, which is a very important website to remember, Sean, because where it's where you sign up for our free weekly newsletter, which comes out today, It comes out in a matter of mere hours, and the panic on your face as you realize that you now need to start writing said newsletter. Eddie tips as to what you might be giving us your unvarnished opinions on.
Plenty of interesting stuff. Can I leave it there? Yeah, economy, Economy gets a run a bit more on Google.
Actually, oh yeah, yeah, Well you're full of mystery today.
Yeah, full of that. I'm quite mirre today.
Yeah, you are absolutely full of it. This is great, all right? Head along to Fearangreed dot com dot au, pop your email addressing and the newsletter will land in your inbox mid morning.
Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael.
It is Wednesday, the eleventh of December twenty twenty four. Make sure you're following the podcast. Join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook. Are Michael Thompson. And that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.