Thursday 30 January 2025
Interest rates in Australia could fall as soon as next month after inflation slows sharply.
And more, including:
Plus don’t miss the latest episode of How Do They Afford That? - can a no-buy year actually work? Get the episode from APPLE, SPOTIFY, or anywhere you listen to podcasts.
Today on Fear and Greed. Interest rates in Australia could fall as soon as next month after inflation slows sharply, whine exports to China jump, that sales to many other markets fall, and we'll tell you the best time to buy a cheap domestic and international flight. Plus, the local share market closes in on a record high and Boeing crashes to its second largest loss ever. Welcome to Fear and Greed, Daily business news for people who make their own decisions. It is Thursday, the thirtieth of January twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
Good morning Michael, Sean.
The main story is one that we've been talking about for some time. It's finally here. Inflation has fallen to its lowest level in nearly four years. The consensus among market economists at the Reserve Bank will start cutting interest rates next month.
That's right. The details first, The Australian Bureau Statistics Consumer Price Index was released yesterday morning. The headline figure for the December quarter zero point two percent. For the annual rate of inflation for twenty twenty four to two point four percent. Now that's artificially low because of energy rebates from the government. Housing costs are also lower. That reading is the lowest since March twenty twenty one. The more important reading, Michael, is the underlying rate. That's what the Reserve Bank cares about when it's thinking about interest rates. Zero point five percent for the quarter, three point two percent for the year. That's down from three point five percent. That figure may well be enough to start interst rate cuts. The Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock has said she will start cutting rates when she believes underlying inflation is heading sustainably into the two to three percent target band. Well, three point two percent down from three point five percent looks like it is heading in that direction. Yesterday, Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers today soft landing for the economy is more and more likely. He said, we are making substantial and sustained progress on inflation. A load of market economists now believe a rate cut is likely next month, including Westpax chief economist Lucy Ellis, who changed her view on the back of yesterday's data. Ellis, of course, used to be the Reserve banks chief economist, the Comwealth Bank and A and Z already were at the position that they thought there would be a rate cut next month. The Aussie dollar felt sharply towards sixty two US sins after the announcement. Basically, the Aussie dollar becomes relatively less attractive to global investors when rates fall. The three year bond yield hit a two month low three point seven nine percent. What's that mean? Well, it tells us what you're laughing at me? What investors think will happen to raids? I reckon they're going down.
Sean digesting all of that right, People with mortgages must be happy, people with business loans must be happy. And I don't want to be a sinic here, but I reckon the happiest person in the country today would have to be Prime Minister Anthony Eberneze.
So true, a rate cut next month, the head of a federal poll in coming months will do him no harm whatsoever. Now it's worth noting that a rate cut is not a done deal. But the readings yesterday are lower than the Central banks forecasts. The Central Bank meets on February seventeen eighteen, it can quite easily justify no change. It could say we want to ensure inflation is under control. Yet it all looks pretty good. But you know, we just wait a little bit longer. It could talk about economies like the US signs of inflation there, global trade wars, all that sort of stuff.
They have kind of built that kind of room to do that. To wait a bit later into all of the previous commentary is because Michelle Bullock has said so many times that it is all about getting inflation down sustainably. And Sean, you're full of lots of things. You're full of kind of sayings and things like that kind of the trend as your friend and swallow something something something doesn't make a spring. I don't know. You could see the Reserve Bank saying have we we want to see this playing out for a longer period.
Right, Yeah, you could. There's also enormous amount of political pressure going on though, and not I mean maybe sort of covertly from government, but overtly from other groups. So Sally McManus from the ACTU yesterday was out saying you've got to cut rates. There are plenty of other business leaders saying yep, it's time to cut rates. So Michelle Bullock and the board at the Reserve Bank have to put up with that. The next question will be hand, we rate cuts are we going to get? And we don't. You don't tend to get one rate cut or one rate hike. They come in clumps. So economns are saying maybe two or three rate cuts this year. I'm not totally convinced that it's going to happen. Michael got to be asked.
No, the political pressure or the pressure from other areas. It's such an interesting idea, isn't it, Because you would think that, of course, when you've got them the chief chief economists of various banks everything, all saying yep, yep, it'll happen. Surely, that's got to kind of weigh on you if you were the Reserve Bank Board, right.
Well, maybe I think it's a pressure from government, from AC to you. It's those sorts of organizations that probably put more pressure on you. Actually, today's interview it's with Warren Hogan from Judo Bank. It is a great chant not just about yesterday's data but exactly what we're talking about. And he has a great track record on interest rates.
Yeah yeah, and he basically takes this approach kind of we don't need a rate cut and Here's why. The thing I love about Warren is that he just tells it exactly as he kind of sees it. He is so plain spoken with all of this. He doesn't pull any punches. He just just let's let's you know exactly where we stand. So it is a great conversation if you want to understand kind of what he sees as the picture at the moment, Sean Asx, how did local markets react to the news. What was the response?
Very quickly, they loved it. The market finished up zero point six percent to four hundred and forty seven points. That's less than one percent off its all time high of late last year. Straight after the announcement had actually jumped up even higher than that. Basically, lower rates should help consumers and the cost of living crisis. As a result, they should buy more stuff that helps corporate profits. Makes sense. Also, the cost of corporate debt will fall if rates are lower, So those two things together you get higher earnings that pushes up share prices. There was another important factor, however, influencing training. Yesterday, Michael, it was the day after the day before. I'm not sure how that works, but you know, it's the day after the mass of sell off on Wall Street and in tech stocks because of the news about deep Seek. Now deep Sea is essentially a company that's going to take on Chat GPT. That's the theory behind it. What it did more than anything was just show that there are other competitors out there to the big US tech groups. Some of the companies that were sold off big time on Tuesday, I think the Data Center Group's Goodman and next DC, the tech leader's Wise Tech Global and Zera. They pretty much bounced yesterday. Same to deal with a bunch of uranium stocks like Boss Energy and Deep Yellow. And just before we leave the markets, Michael Primary Investment yesterday became a much smaller company because of course it's combining it's apparel business. I think just Jean's Portman's JJ's with Meyer. So his share price fell twenty two percent yesterday, not surprising because it's lost all those assets. Mayer was down five percent.
All right, big start to the show, Sean, who still have plenty more to come. We are talking Ossie wine exports. We are looking at the best time to book a flight with Boeing's bad run very aircraft and airline heavy aircraft. Yeah, it feels like you've kind of prepared today's show just for me, So so much more to come. Don't go anywhere. We'll be back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news sewn. Australian soldier Oscar Jenkins, who was captured in eastern Ukraine, has been confirmed alive and in custody, not dead as was previously feared.
Certainly good years. The thirty two year old Melbourne teacher was serving in Ukraine's armed Forces. He was captured by Russian forces last year. There were reports that he had been executed in Russia. Yesterday, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said he was alive, but she also threatened an unequivocal response against Russia should mister Jenkins face harm, citing serious concern for his well being. Not a lot of information on this at the moment, but at least mister Jenkins is alive. He's a prisoner of war now. Pennywong yesterday called on the government to release mister Jenkins. She said, if Russia doesn't provide mister Jenkins the protections he's entitled to under international humanitarian law, our response will be unequivocal.
All right now, Sean I mentioned Australian wine exports well, they jumped by more than one third last year to two point five to five billion dollars thanks to the abolition of Chinese tariffs on the local drop.
There was an immediate improvement from late March last year when those tariffs were dropped. In fact, for the full year, winshaus to China up thirty four percent. That took the total value of exports to two point five to five billion dollars last year, according to Wine Australia. Now China takes about thirty six percent of all exports. That's good news. Bad news. Exports to the rest of the world slipped by about thirteen percent. There were big drops in some major markets, so the United Kingdom was down three percent, the US was down ten percent, Hong Kong was down forty percent. That would have been a bit of shifting from Hong Kong to China in that but those three, UK, US and Hong Kong are all major markets for US. Broadly, wine exports are facing challenges. Health and wellness concerns, rise and costs of living have combined to hit demand for our exports. Also, there's a global oversupply at the moment that's not helping prices. So tough times, but at least sales China are up.
Yeah, that is at least some good news now. Sean shareholder meetings to approve the Sigma Healthcare and Chemist Warehouse merger were held last night and it got the green light to create a thirty billion dollar company.
That's right. Sigma is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. Shareholders love the deal. Basically, it's triggered a total rerating of Sigma Healthcare. Before this deal was announced, Sigma was training at seventy six point five since share on Tuesday closed. It didn't trade yesterday, but Tuesday was its last day as a stand line entity three dollars and three certainly a strong performer in the second half of last year. Chemists Warehouse is a family owned business or mostly family owned. Any deal will make the founders Jack and Sam Grants, as well as Mario Verocki billionaires Combined. Those three own about forty eight percent of the company that's worth about fifteen billion dollars, so that surprising they voted for the deal as well. Shares are set to begin trading on thirte and through February because the new company is so big, plenty of index funds index investors will be forced to buy into the company and that should support its price.
Bit of rare good news now sean for Star Entertainment. Yesterday it said that it is selling several Sydney assets and that sent its share price up to thirteen percent.
Wow. I like that start selling several Sydney assets A lot of a lot of sibilants, yes, exactly, and acid being sold is the Star Sydney event Center plus some other spaces. Star will reap about sixty billion, sixty billion. I'd love that Star will reap about sixty million dollars for the assets that sold it to the Foundation. Theaters. Foundation already has assemblies on Lyric Theater at the Start in Sydney. Of course, this is part of the Star's efforts to avoid collapse. I got to say what I read when I saw this story yesterday. I remember when Star So Star in Sydney opened in nineteen ninety five at a temporary site, and they built the permanent casino that opened in nineteen ninety seven, So I must be about ninety six early ninety seven. I was a journalist at the finn Review and I went on a tour of the Star before it opened, and I went into that Sydney event center and I think it's got two or three hundred people capacity, and they were talking about Elton John and David Bowie and all sorts of people coming and having kind of small intimate shows for rich gamblers. Oh. I remember the time thinking to myself, really like, maybe that happened. I have never heard of it happening, but really, do you think John's going to come and play for two hundred people unless you're going to pay him a lot of money?
A lot of money. It does feel like there's been a few missteps along the way, because then you think about the fact that the entire decision to build the casino facing the wrong way, and that then required them to do this massive remodeling, the big about that huge refurbishment to basically turn it around to focus more on the fact that it is on the.
Water on Sydney Harbor.
It's on Sydney Harbor and the back of the casino backs onto the harbor. And so what was that Probably about ten years ago, ten to fifteen years ago, there was the big, huge, huge redevelopment in order to basically spin it around and make more of its location. So there have been a few bumps along the way for Star Entertainment they have.
The current CEO, Steve McCann, yesterday said the company continues to work a number of potential non core asset transactions. Yesterday morning, The fin Review reported that New York behemoth Cerberus, Have I got that right? C E R B E r US Cerberus Capital Management is interested in buying some of the group's debt. What's important about that is that that probably gives it an extension of that debt, So very relevant.
Cerberus is the one the dog with the three heads, isn't it.
I can't remember, off the top of my head.
Being on your Greek mythology or I don't know who would have thought that we'd be discussing Greek mythology in today's podcast. Maybe that stick to business? What about this one? What do you make of this? The boss of Pilber Minerals has called the bottom of the lithium market. He says that prices the producer is now receiving are better than early last year. That sounds like a big call, though, don't you think.
Yeah? Look, Nicols sector was probably hit hardest, but lithium was next. Over the last couple of years and they said there's had this oversupply and then lower demand for electric vehicles, prices fell. We ended up having a bunch of companies including Pilbra mothballing Plants. Well, yesterday chief executive Dale Henderson came out. He said that Pilbro, which is Australia's biggest pure lithium play, was actually receiving higher prices or did so in the December quarter and he called it an inflection point. His theory is that the ev freight train is off and running, off and running is how he put it. That's not going to stop, according to mister Henderson, so he reckons that we're at an inflection point for his saken, for Pilbra Minerals and all the lithium minus. I hope that's the case.
Cerberus is a three headed dog in Greek mythology well done. His role is to guard the gates of hadesn't allow any allowed dead people in, but no one else there You go, sorryn't. I wouldn't normally revisit something if I was wrong, But if I'm right, then absolutely I got to give myself a bit of credit here sean booking an international airfare on a Sunday night eight weeks in advance and flying on a Thursday, preferably in January. I hope you hope you're taking notes here. That is the best way to save money on airfares.
That's according to expeediers report called air Hacks. It looked at was literally and tens of thousands of bookings across its site, across carriers. It found that booking on a Sunday saved as much as seventeen percent off international fairs twenty percent of domestic fares. So Sunday lunch, that's what you should be doing thinking about booking somewhere to go. If you fly over season a Thursday, you can say about eight percent. If you fly domestically on a Saturday, you can save about twenty six January's the cheapest month for domestic and international flights. It's about eleven percent less than September, which is the most expensive month. The quietest month for air travel is February, So if you don't want to get stuck in the middle of four seats in the middle of the plane, try February. And in terms of booking ahead. Everyone says you've got a book months and months ahead internationally. Well, according to air hacks, eight weeks for international is prime, six months for domestic.
That requires a lot of decisions to be made in.
Advance an organization.
Yeah, yeah, that's tough turning into international news.
Now.
Wall Street was somewhat calmer yesterday. You touched on this before Sean. With the market rebounding from the emergence of Chinese AI player.
Deep Seek, Nvidia and Oracle, which lost hundreds of billions of dollars worth of value on Tuesday night, rebounded pretty sharply. Now. The latest on that deep Seek story is that Microsoft and open Ai, which owned chat GPT, I'm now investigating with a data output from the group was obtained in an unauthorized manner by group linked to deep Seak. That to me sounds like I don't believe that deep seat can do what it did without some sort of help. Anyway, I'm sure we're going to hear a lot more about that story. The rebound met Wall Street closed high sure.
On the turbulence. For Boeing continues that we guessed there are lazy puns to make about airlines, aren't there. But Boeing has has crashed to its second largest annual loss in its one hundred and nine year history, as the planemaker deals with the fallout of a major safety scandal. This has been ongoing now for some time.
That's right. So it lost eleven point eight billion US dollars last year nineteen billion. I was he dollars? How do you do that? It has lots more, But that was during the pandemic. So outside that year in the pandemic where it basically couldn't sell any planes. Outside that year, by far, the worst year it's ever had. Its total losses over the past five years is now thirty five billion dollars. Ouch terrible year twenty twenty four. It had a mid air blowout of a door plug in one of its passenger aircraft. That didn't help. There were walkouts by tens of thousands of factory workers at the Bowing factories. There were a string of falts aboard a spacecraft it built for NASA. Ennis horribolous, Do I get that right? Yeah, NNI's horribulous for Bowing.
Oh, finishing the show on a bit of Latin. We've had Latin, We've had Greek mythology. We've had a little bit of everything today.
You can learn. You can learn lots of things on Fear and Greed that have got nothing to do with the economy or business.
They should play this podcast in primary schools right around the country.
Maybe it's sleep time for the infantes.
Pop you all off to sleep, kidd soon Up next Fear and Greed Daily Interview with Warren Hogan. Definitely worth a listener. All about the inflation figures yesterday. It is coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au.
Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael.
It is Thursday, the thirtieth of January twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. Our Michael Thompson And that was.
Fear and Greed. Have a great day.