Rate cuts on the way after inflation data; home prices rise; Coles beating Woolies

Published Apr 30, 2025, 6:00 PM

Thursday 1 May 2025

Interest rates set to fall after the country’s underlying inflation rate fell to its lowest point in three-and-a-half years. 

  • Home prices across the country rise for the third month in a row. 
  • Coles is winning the war against Woolworths. 
  • Plus both sides of politics get aggressive against the other, and Donald Trump gets aggressive against pretty much everyone in a speech to mark 100 days in office. 

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Today on Fear and Greed. Interest rate set to fall after the country's underlying inflation rate fell to its lowest level in three and a half years. Home prices across the country rise for the third month in a row, and Cole's is winning the war against Woolworths. Plus, both sides of politics get aggressive against the other, and Donald Trump gets aggressive against well pretty much everyone in a speech to mark one hundred days in office. Welcome to Fear and Greed daily business news for people who make their own decisions. It is Thursday, the first of May twenty twenty five. Are Michael Thompson and Good Morning, Sean Aylmer.

Good morning, Michael.

Big day today, Big Newsletter today as well show Big Newsletter Today. If you haven't signed up for the Fear and Greed newsletter, headlong to Fearangreed dot com dot au pop your email addressing entirely free and the best part is that you can read it in about two minutes flat and you will arrive at your desk ready for the day. It just gives you the few dot points that you need in order to really to bluff your way through any conversation. Right, That's what I use it for Yeah. Anyway, I'll put a link in today's show notes as well so you can find it, but the website is the place to go Fear and Green dot com. Today you shown on with the show. The main story this morning, a rate cut is expected in three weeks after March quarter inflation figures show that annual price rises are now back below three percent, But it's economists have worn that there might only be two more rate cuts this year, not four as many had actually hoped. The Reserve banks that preferred measure of inflation is now below three percent for the first time in more than three years. That's the good news. The bad news is that inflation over the March quarter was just a touch higher than forecast, but probably not enough to prevent a rate cut. On twenty May, headline inflation over the three months was zero point nine percent. Now you put all that together, annual inflation two point four percent, underlying inflation two point nine percent. If you take the last six month figures for underlying inflation, it's about two and a half percent. That is exactly the number that the Reserve Bank is looking for inflation.

To sit at. The main price pressures came from food, which makes up a big chunk of the basket of goods. So the way they do this is they take a basket of goods and they divide it into different areas. Food is seventeen percent of that. And so if you get big food price increases, the overall inflation increases.

Okay, that makes sense.

It does. Now you'll be pleased to know a big chunk of the increases was in food, led by the price of lamb and goat.

I don't know. It feels like lamb would make up the vast majority of that, right, I don't know.

I've never eaten eaten in goat.

It's nice, is it?

But I don't think it's as common as lamb. Avocados, mangoes, asparagus, tomatoes, lettuce, all much more expensive. Now. It's the first time headline and underlying inflation have been in the target two to three percent range since twenty twenty one, and that's occurred without big job losses.

I want to ask you a question about interest rates, but just on that right when you were talking about that basket of goods, and I don't know whether you can answer this, but you actually identified avocados, mangoes, things like that right, that make up this basket of good good when a lot of these things are seasonal, right, and you end up with mangoes are a hell of a lot more expensive during winter and avocados are a lot more expensive out of season. How do they adjust for seasonality when it comes to items within the basket of goods?

Very good question, because most of the ABS Bureau statistics figures are seasonally adjusted. You see SA next to them, and over many years they've been able to shift out the seasonality factors to the mangos there are a great example, So the waiting of amingo might be less in the middle of winter than it is in the middle of summer, for example. And they've just done that, you know, over a long time. So they have a bunch of categories like food, alcohol, clothing, housing, furnishing. Health's always a big one, Transport, insurance is a big one, very expensive at the moment, And they have all these bunch of goods within each of those baskets, and that's how they come up with a number. But they've been doing it so long that they can really take out those seasonality issues.

Okay, all right, So if we've got headline and underlying inflation both in the target range. It just happened, as you say, without big job losses. Why are we going to get a rate cut if things do seem to be in pretty good balance at the moment.

So economic growth is a missing factor. It's still pretty sluggish, consumer sentiments poor, say's business sentiment. Really, there's plenty of risks from the Trump trade war. Now there's still some risks in inflation, particularly around services inflation, education, health insurance, those types of things. But we are likely to get a rate cut in May. Those risks mean that I just mentioned men the Reserve Bank won't be a bulleted gate when it comes to it. In fact, many economists are now saying there'll just be two rate cuts this year, not four. But everyone seems to think there will be a cut in May.

I hate to be a nitpicker. Hmmm. Actually, I don't hate it at all. It feels like it's the role I was born to play. But you say that the economy broadly writers in pretty good nick at the moment, it doesn't feel like it right, because you just all you need to do is look at the election campaign. The entire campaign has been based around cost of living pressures.

Yeah, So the two things I'd say on that we're really excited that inflation is under three percent, but that doesn't mean prices are lower. I mean they are up seven percent a couple of years ago.

Yeah, you know.

And so what we're saying is the pace of price rises has slowed, but they're still high. The other parts of that prices over the last five years up twenty percent. Wages are up fifteen percent. So the cost of living crisis is real because prices have gone up more than wages.

On that topic, Sean, you have a great conversation coming up after the show. You are speaking with one of our favorite economists, Sharrell Murphy from EY.

We are talking all about what we start. We interview Sharrell to talk to her about the inflation figures, We get into politics, we get into fiscal discipline, we get into all sorts of things. Then we eventually come back to say, what about rate cuts. So it's a great chat about the economy a rule, but based on those figures that came out yesterday and whether or not Shirell thinks that it will be a rate cut in May, which she does, and how many rate cuts will get this year.

Yeah, it's a good conversation. It's coming up after the show. Any cutting interest rates is likely to help the local housing market now. Figures released today by Totality, which was formerly known as core Logic, So if you hear us refer into Totality in the future, it's core Logic. That's where it originally came from. Those figure show that house prices across the country rose for the third straight month in April, with two seven hundred and twenty dollars added to the median value of a home.

Yes, that's across the country, so obviously if you're in somewhere like Sydney, it's actually more. If you're somewhere like Hobart or Darwen it's less. A lifting home values was recorded across every capital city, ranging from zero point two percent in Sydney and Melbourne to more than one percent in Darwin. Now, despite stretched housing affordability, growth in house values is actually outpacing units and regional housing values are actually better than the capital cities. Over the past twelve months. Dwelling values fell two point two percent in Melbourne, was up about one percent in Sydney, down about zero point six percent in Canberra, and then per Adelaide and Brisbane. Zoom cities, zoom cities, boom cities. I think I'm trying to say.

I was going to say, zoom cities. Is that where people zoom a lot more or just work remotely? Yes, Yes, there we go region. It sounded deliberate on here. Local markets, how do they perform? Yesterday?

Another really good day, five in a row. Now The S and PASX two hundred closed up zero point seven percent to eight one two six points. Broadly speaking, interest rate sensitive stocks did best. Think tech companies, real estate, consumer discretionary stocks. The boring ones that were doing so well didn't do so well. Willis and Cohals went backwards until it is in energy of stocks underperformed. The falling price of goal continues to weigh on the local diggers. Among the large caps, Commwalth Bank, CSL, West Farmers, Aristocrat led the way, Forest Few Metals and Macquari both went backwards.

Global markets, what's going on?

A couple of really big economic stories. One out of the US, dropping job openings, in a slump in consumer confidence. In fact, confidence will hit a five year low, heading back to COVID nineteen levels. Not good for that economy. And the big story out of China was that factory activity slipped into the worst contraction since twenty twenty three. It sort of hints at the early damage to the world's second biggest economy from the trade war with the US. Otherwise, os he dollar about sixty four US since and oils trading around sixty two to fifty US eight barrel.

It has been a chunky start to the.

Show, has been a chunky start.

Yes, we have got a lot still to come. We'll be back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean. We are in the last days of campaigning. All the big announcements well they've really all been made now. There's not that many surprises left. The leaders of the parties are just pretty much doing their best not to lose votes between now and election day. What's the latest?

So Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi and Opposition lead to Peter Dunton, you know, chriss crossing the country desperate for those final votes. Alban Easy appeared at the National Press Club yesterday, Peter Dunton and Pete at his fifteenth service station of the campaign. That's got to be a record right at the Press Club in camera the PM. It said the election was a choice between two fundamentally different visions for the direction Australia should go. Typical really of both campaigns at the moment, fairly aggressive attacking of the other side. Now more than four million people have already voted. That's about twenty two percent of enrollment two days ago.

It's interesting that polling suggests now that the Coalition is doing relatively well, gaining preferences from One Nation and center right parties, which in turn is tightening up the race for the lodge.

It is probably not enough to allow Peter Dutton to become Prime Minister, according to those polls. It does add to the argument that the Coalition could win some outer city seats, meaning the ALP will be returned, but possibly as a minority government. The JWS Research polling suggests in outer suburban seats One Nation, Family First and Trumpet of Patriots that's Clive Palmer's party are collectively polling around ten percent, so their preferences definitely will matter.

Michael and just staying in politics, the US President Donald Trump has said that Australia has been calling him to talk about tariffs, though it's not clear when a conversationation will take place.

Who made the phone call or whether you had a phone to ring, who had the phone number?

All these unknowns. Yeah.

Look, he was asked by nine media and he said that, yeah, they are calling and I will be talking to him. Yes, we're referring to Anthony Alberanzi. Treats of Jim Chalmers yesterday said Alberanzi would have a conversation with Donald Trump, but he's not sure when.

Wouldn't the Labor Party just be praying that it happens in say, the next twenty four hours, because wouldn't that be a good look to be able to say that, yes, we are the party that's been able to connect to the president before you go to the polls.

Yes, probably. I don't know. The thing with Donald Trump, you just never know what he's going to say as a result.

Of that, that's a good point. It could backfire spectacularly.

Yeah.

Anyway. Cole Supermarkets SEAN has boosted sales to ten point four billion dollars for the March quarter as it continues to outperformance art Trival woollies.

It's really hard to compare to the markets, but one way is to look at the share price Willies overing the last twelve months is down one percent. It's share price Coles is up thirty percent. It's quite incredible. Cole CEO Leah Weckertt said, cost of living pressures are evident in sales. Home brands are doing really well. Even I think it's called Coal's Finest. Is there, Coal's Finest, so there. Even their luxury home brand is doing really well. Promotions and discounts are still working. So Coal's doesn't have as many promotions, but they're more likely to take forty or fifty percent off the price of something rather than have twenty or thirty percent off a bunch of things, and they argue that works better. Also interestingly, Cole's e commerce channel now accounts for about eleven percent of sales all he reports its numbers today.

Star Entertainment is continuing to lose money across its gaming outlets, with the introduction of cash limits and mandatory identification cards out at Sydney Casino triggering a quarterly.

Lost yes twenty one million dollars it lost pre tax. DAR says there is still a material uncertainty regarding its ability to continue as a going concern. There were seasonal declines seasonal factors Earlier in the Shadow Seasonal Manga's seasonal the kinds in revenue, reduced levels of gaming visitation, and a one off impact of weather in Queensland during.

March turned into international news. Now Donald Trump has marked one hundred days in office by holding the biggest rally since his election. He held it in Michigan, the home of automaking in the US, and he continued his tirades on immigration. On his predecessor, the Federal Reserve Chair, No one missed out, really no.

He had a crack at how Joe Biden appears in a bathing suit. Oh that's not fair, He questioned his mental acuity. Actually, what would Donald Trump look like in a bathing Sorry, no, I didn't need to say it.

The image is there now. It has been burnt into my brain.

Trump repeated that he won the twenty twenty election, even though he didn't, and he was critical of news courage not favorable to him. On the FED, he said, I quite inflation is basically down and interest rates came down despite the fact I have a person who's not really doing a good job. He was, of course, referring to Jay Powell, the chair Trump said he knew more about interest rates than Powell. He also returned to immigration, he signature issue, boasting about his administration's mass deportation efforts that have sent arrests for illegal crossings along the US Mexico border plummeting.

And the Trump tariffs are hitting big business in the US. Delivery group UPS says or cut twenty thousand jobs. General Motors has dumped its earnings outlook statement on the back of all the uncertainty.

Heah, we talked about this in Australia a couple of days of that ago. In the US, companies are telling investors that revenue and earnings will be hit by the economic malaise spurred by the trade wars. So Craft Times, maker of tomato sauce, the ketchen Kecha.

I suppose if we're talking us, it's got to be ketchup right. Yeah.

Craft Highs, maker of ketchum, among other things, has pulled its outlook for earnings, as have Electrolux and airline Jet Blue Airways. Coca Cola it came out and said some consumers in the US with drinking less coke. So to your consumers in Denmark and Mexico. As a result of Trump's policies.

It's Denmark, a big poke market.

Don't know and don't know how you made that either. Roud's analysis says about forty companies worldwide have pulled or lowered their forward guidance in the past. Fortnite executives are worried that the Trump trade policies not so much well input costs, but also just hits consumer and business sentiment, and that sort of damage is not easily undone.

All right, Big show, Sean. Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. Your guest today, Charelle Murphy from Ey You can find it on your podcast platform or a Fearangreed dot com today you, which is also where you sign up for the free daily newsletter. Thank you very much, Michael. It is Thursday, the first of May twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.

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