Welcome to Fear and Greed. Some are investing series brought to you by Vanter, specialists in compliance led growth. I'm Sean Almer. The rise of GLP one drugs think of Zenpic and Lagobi has been one of the biggest developments in global healthcare in the last few years. The drugs can be used for weight loss and management of conditions like type two diabetes. As always, this is general information only and you should seek independent advice before making investment decisions. Steve Ween is the Managing Director Equery Research at Jardam Australia, heading up their healthcare team. Steve, Welcome to Fear and Greed.

Welcome to Fear and Greed. Some are investing series brought to you by Vanter, specialists in compliance led growth. I'm Sean Almer. The rise of GLP one drugs think of Zenpic and Lagobi has been one of the biggest developments in global healthcare in the last few years. The drugs can be used for weight loss and management of conditions like type two diabetes. As always, this is general information only and you should seek independent advice before making investment decisions. Steve Ween is the Managing Director Equery Research at Jardam Australia, heading up their healthcare team. Steve, Welcome to Fear and Greed.

Thanks very much, sure and good to be here.

Thanks very much, sure and good to be here.

These weight loss drugs JLP one drugs, it seems in my experience, I don't think I've ever seen in the healthcare sector a class of drugs make as much noise as these drugs.

These weight loss drugs JLP one drugs, it seems in my experience, I don't think I've ever seen in the healthcare sector a class of drugs make as much noise as these drugs.

Have made have I and it is quite extraordinary the the benefits that it is being able to demonstrate, which includes treating diabetes, cardiovascular disease, treating sleep apnea and weight loss. So quite a wonder drug that Americans seem to love because it is that sort of silver bullet to a number of conditions that they seemingly experience.

Have made have I and it is quite extraordinary the the benefits that it is being able to demonstrate, which includes treating diabetes, cardiovascular disease, treating sleep apnea and weight loss. So quite a wonder drug that Americans seem to love because it is that sort of silver bullet to a number of conditions that they seemingly experience.

Are there In terms of an investor, how do you get into that market? Is it possible?

Are there In terms of an investor, how do you get into that market? Is it possible?

I mean there's two major providers or manufacturers of that, which is Eli Lilly and Novo and Orders both not listed in Australia. So from an Australian perspective, it's very difficult to get access to participating in that. There's a number of compounding companies that are trying to replicate it, which we know will fall short of the law. I think ultimately, because these are patterned drugs and your ability to replicate them is somewhat problematic. So I probably wouldn't be looking out for any of those, but if you wanted to access it, then you would be. You'd be most likely to gravitate towards it by some equity in Novo nordeskan ililally.

I mean there's two major providers or manufacturers of that, which is Eli Lilly and Novo and Orders both not listed in Australia. So from an Australian perspective, it's very difficult to get access to participating in that. There's a number of compounding companies that are trying to replicate it, which we know will fall short of the law. I think ultimately, because these are patterned drugs and your ability to replicate them is somewhat problematic. So I probably wouldn't be looking out for any of those, but if you wanted to access it, then you would be. You'd be most likely to gravitate towards it by some equity in Novo nordeskan ililally.

Okay, I mean there's sort of phase two of these drugs. Someone has said, you know, if you can see companies that are going to put out phase two of these drugs. But what you're saying is because of patterns and things like that, that's easier said than done.

Okay, I mean there's sort of phase two of these drugs. Someone has said, you know, if you can see companies that are going to put out phase two of these drugs. But what you're saying is because of patterns and things like that, that's easier said than done.

That's right. So I mean they're invading all the time. There is a ton of money coming at this space, so there will be alternatives out there, and who they are and who who ultimately gets accepted by the FDA is having something that's differentiated enough and doesn't breach existing patterns. It will be the winners. But we have no real line of sight to that in Australia, certainly with our focus on the companies that are listed here, it is really not a strong focus from my perspective. However, where my focus includes this particular drug is the implications it has on other stocks as a result of the benefits that you can have from being treated with a GLP one Okay.

That's right. So I mean they're invading all the time. There is a ton of money coming at this space, so there will be alternatives out there, and who they are and who who ultimately gets accepted by the FDA is having something that's differentiated enough and doesn't breach existing patterns. It will be the winners. But we have no real line of sight to that in Australia, certainly with our focus on the companies that are listed here, it is really not a strong focus from my perspective. However, where my focus includes this particular drug is the implications it has on other stocks as a result of the benefits that you can have from being treated with a GLP one Okay.

So let's talk about resident sleep happen you group, they've come out and said that they could be affected by these GLP one drugs. How do you think about it as an investor?

So let's talk about resident sleep happen you group, they've come out and said that they could be affected by these GLP one drugs. How do you think about it as an investor?

Yeah, it's a very tricky. How long is a piece of string type scenario. But the way I have treated it within my forecast for resmet So just a little bit of backdrop there. The Eli Lilly have a drug called Monjaro which has just been released some Phase three trial data around its ability to treat sleep apnea had some pretty impressive results and is on the way to getting a label for that from the FDA, so that is something that will happen shortly. In the meantime, everyone's looking at ResMed thinking what are the implications. Is this a potential if you are for sleep apnea and you will no longer need your SEATPAP machine or your masks that they are using to currently treat it. So my view is I have a look at what the risk to the total market size is. I look at whether what my expectations is around insurance coverage because it's a very very costly drug. I look at examples of what the real world evidence is like is how long people's last on these drugs. And that's the biggest kind of you know, people are currently thinking that it's a cure for everything, but people don't like these drugs when they're on it. That makes them feel nauseous. There are a number of side effects. There's literally something that came out overnight which is linking it to an eye disorder which is causing sight loss. So there are some real side effects to this. And what is the mix then, is to how long people last on it keep that weight off, which ultimately reduces their level or the severity of their sleep apnea.

Yeah, it's a very tricky. How long is a piece of string type scenario. But the way I have treated it within my forecast for resmet So just a little bit of backdrop there. The Eli Lilly have a drug called Monjaro which has just been released some Phase three trial data around its ability to treat sleep apnea had some pretty impressive results and is on the way to getting a label for that from the FDA, so that is something that will happen shortly. In the meantime, everyone's looking at ResMed thinking what are the implications. Is this a potential if you are for sleep apnea and you will no longer need your SEATPAP machine or your masks that they are using to currently treat it. So my view is I have a look at what the risk to the total market size is. I look at whether what my expectations is around insurance coverage because it's a very very costly drug. I look at examples of what the real world evidence is like is how long people's last on these drugs. And that's the biggest kind of you know, people are currently thinking that it's a cure for everything, but people don't like these drugs when they're on it. That makes them feel nauseous. There are a number of side effects. There's literally something that came out overnight which is linking it to an eye disorder which is causing sight loss. So there are some real side effects to this. And what is the mix then, is to how long people last on it keep that weight off, which ultimately reduces their level or the severity of their sleep apnea.

I'm probably asking you an impossible question, Steve. So with all that, the thing about the GLP one drugs is that we actually don't know the long term effects of them, simply because they haven't been around long enough. You can't ignore them. When you're investing in reds Men or other companies who are treatments for all sorts of things. Do you just sort of say there's a twenty percent chance that this is going to dent it. Like, I'm just trying to get my head around how you think about it in your portfolio and the infected effect it has.

I'm probably asking you an impossible question, Steve. So with all that, the thing about the GLP one drugs is that we actually don't know the long term effects of them, simply because they haven't been around long enough. You can't ignore them. When you're investing in reds Men or other companies who are treatments for all sorts of things. Do you just sort of say there's a twenty percent chance that this is going to dent it. Like, I'm just trying to get my head around how you think about it in your portfolio and the infected effect it has.

Well, there's two sides to this. So the way I've adopted it is I've shipped my valuation by sixteen percent, so that's currently my numbers, and I've still got to buy on it or overweight recommendation on it. And that is an impact that I have coming into the forecast for this company for the next five years. So by the time we get to twenty thirty, I'm in my numbers indicating that that's going to be the maximum damage that a GLP one drug could have on the take up of seapap therapy. Now the flip side of that is, and this is what's really interesting at the moment is with all of this talk around gop ones, the awareness of sleep apnea has gone through the roof now or you're finding his physicians are actively testing for sleep apnea when previously they had never done so before. So what I'm seeing at the moment in the quarterly numbers by Resume, we are seeing extraordinary growth rates of take up of people being diagnosed with sleep apnea and the devices as a result. So remember, when you take a gop one drug, it takes more than twelve months for you to lose the weight that would have any impact on your sleep apnea. So do you want to have twelve months of no sleep or interrupted sleep or do you want to sort of address that issue straight away. So that's what's driving it. And then what's happening now is that Samsung and Apple are now putting onto their watches or their wearable devices prompts. They've got sensors on the back of the watches that can actually detect whether or not you've had events during the night, and then it will prompt you in the morning, hey, you should have a look at your sleep apnea because your blood oxygenation levels were down during the night and that's a prime sign that you might have sleep APNA. So you go to the doctor. The doctor tells you to have a test. Then you get put on a seapap. Maybe you're taking a GLP one at the same time, and in eighteen months time you might stop your therapy. But meanwhile you've bought the device. You bought the masks resmets happy. Investors would be happy.

Well, there's two sides to this. So the way I've adopted it is I've shipped my valuation by sixteen percent, so that's currently my numbers, and I've still got to buy on it or overweight recommendation on it. And that is an impact that I have coming into the forecast for this company for the next five years. So by the time we get to twenty thirty, I'm in my numbers indicating that that's going to be the maximum damage that a GLP one drug could have on the take up of seapap therapy. Now the flip side of that is, and this is what's really interesting at the moment is with all of this talk around gop ones, the awareness of sleep apnea has gone through the roof now or you're finding his physicians are actively testing for sleep apnea when previously they had never done so before. So what I'm seeing at the moment in the quarterly numbers by Resume, we are seeing extraordinary growth rates of take up of people being diagnosed with sleep apnea and the devices as a result. So remember, when you take a gop one drug, it takes more than twelve months for you to lose the weight that would have any impact on your sleep apnea. So do you want to have twelve months of no sleep or interrupted sleep or do you want to sort of address that issue straight away. So that's what's driving it. And then what's happening now is that Samsung and Apple are now putting onto their watches or their wearable devices prompts. They've got sensors on the back of the watches that can actually detect whether or not you've had events during the night, and then it will prompt you in the morning, hey, you should have a look at your sleep apnea because your blood oxygenation levels were down during the night and that's a prime sign that you might have sleep APNA. So you go to the doctor. The doctor tells you to have a test. Then you get put on a seapap. Maybe you're taking a GLP one at the same time, and in eighteen months time you might stop your therapy. But meanwhile you've bought the device. You bought the masks resmets happy. Investors would be happy.

Fantastic see thank you for your time.

Fantastic see thank you for your time.

No problems at all.

No problems at all.

That was Steve Ween, Managing Director Equity Research at Jarden. Remember to get your own independent advice before making decisions. This is very ingred Summer Investing series brought to you by vana Venta automates compliance for frameworks like ISO twenty seven one two, CPS two three four and Essential eight, saving time and money while building trust. Join over eight thousand companies. He's like a Lassian dovetail fire Anton Tactic dot Io managing real time risk. Get a thousand dollars off at vant dot com, slash fear and greed. I'm suan elma Enjoy your day.

That was Steve Ween, Managing Director Equity Research at Jarden. Remember to get your own independent advice before making decisions. This is very ingred Summer Investing series brought to you by vana Venta automates compliance for frameworks like ISO twenty seven one two, CPS two three four and Essential eight, saving time and money while building trust. Join over eight thousand companies. He's like a Lassian dovetail fire Anton Tactic dot Io managing real time risk. Get a thousand dollars off at vant dot com, slash fear and greed. I'm suan elma Enjoy your day.