Interview: Mark Carnegie on Bitcoin, Trump & the weaponisation of currency

Published Dec 9, 2024, 4:30 PM

Mark Carnegie is one of our best known investors - and also one of our most forthright. In this frank conversation with Sean Aylmer, Mark explains his view of cryptocurrencies, all the way through to the role Australia could play in an eventual trade war - and it all comes back to digital currencies.

This is general information only. You should seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

Welcome to the Fearing Greed Business Interview. I'm sure and Alma. Last week Bitcoin here record passing one hundred thousand US dollars for the first time. Other cryptocurrencies have also boomed since the election of Donald Trump. In particular, that's on the back of greater confidence of a more friendly regulatory environment in the US for digital currencies. Demands certainly strong, though not everyone is a supporter, with the Reserve Bank of Australia earlier in the year pointing out that the value of crypto unit units relies on supply and demand and they actually don't have any intrinsic value. Remember this is general information only and you should see professional advice before making investment decisions. To help us think about where cryptos are heading, I welcome Mark Canegie, principle of mh Carnegie and co and founder of MHC Digital Group. Mark, welcome to Fear and Greed.

Thanks very much for having me.

Sean, Let's start at the very beginnings. What are the benefits of cryptos?

Well, the benefits of digital finance are that you find some way to disrupt the hundreds of billions of dollars a year of fees that incumbent financial services institutions charge you, and the regulatory capture that's been brought about by a whole series of decisions that were made for good reasons at the beginning but have gone absolutely mad for the average person as far as how they run their financial life.

Okay, so you use the phrase digital currencies, Is that right? I mean there's not all digital currencies are the same. You have things like tokens which are kind of often used with insectors. You have cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, but then you have stable coins like the USD coin. Just explain particularly stable coins the discip between that and a cryptocurrency like a bitcoin.

So think about trying to move money for Christmas to your aunt who lives in the Channel Line isolence. At the moment, what's going to happen to you is you're going to call whoever your bank is and say can I please transfer one hundred or one thousand dollars to her? And she's going to want to receive either euros or sterly and when you send that money at the moment, it's going to go missing for anywhere between twenty four hours and two weeks before it arrives in her bank account. And you're going to have no idea where it's gone, and you're going to spend half an hour to five hours talking to the bank to try and find out about that money. We've all had that experience, and then what you're going to find is whether it was one hundred bananas or a thousand. The money you sent and the money that arrives there is going to be less because of foreign exchange charges and also transaction fees. The promises of stable coins is that you can move the money out of your account into her account for fractions of a cent rather than fifty or one hundred dollars on one thousand dollars transaction. And there's one hundred and sixty billion dollars a year charged in fees for just using the US dollar swift network. To give you some idea of just one place where these fees drag the world financial system.

Okay, so I certainly understand the idea of making it a far more efficient mechanism. My question, I suppose this comes to the sable coin. Sable coins have a backing. They have an asset backing, which is different to a some cryptocurrencies which actually don't have asset baking. It's just a supply and demand.

And in fairness, sean just to be careful. There are some that are better backed than others. There have been times where people have claimed something as a stable coin and it's got backing and it actually doesn't. But luckily regulation and other things have meant that there are proper stable coins backed with real.

And you're a supporter of stable coins or stable coins and cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.

I am a supporter of deregulated and distributed finance in total. I've got and have had great skepticism about bitcoin over a long period of time, and I have a personal preference for ethereum amongst the cryptocurrencies. But I've been proved wrong for a series of reasons which are not going to be We're not going to be able to exhaustively go into now. I think there are a set of reasons why, by virtue of Trump and the Republicans, what I call the fetishization of bitcoin is going to become a real thing now, and so I change my view about bitcoin. When Trump said We're going to create this strategic Bitcoin reserve in the US long before he was getting elected, but I think it was a sea change as far as my skepticism about bitcoin.

So just before we dive into that any further, the reasoning like Etheroreum is because of the blockchain technology behind that as opposed to Bitcoin.

Yes, and I also I think for Tarlek is a genuinely good human being, the guy who invented it.

Yeah, okay, So just on bitcoin, is it because Trump the sec regulations, the reserve currency. Does that all kind of give Bitcoin more of an authenticity or a credibility that perhaps it didn't have without Trump?

Yes, I think so. So there was a famous guy who called David Graeber, who wrote a book called Debt the First five thousand Years, and he talked about fetish, right, things becoming fetish eyed like gold. Right, Gold's got no intrinsic value, but there's a fetish around gold. What we've observed is a developing fetish around bitcoin, and that fetish is now so well in trench with the Republicans that it's never going to get unpicked. So, and there are some reasons to do with the ordinance blockchain, and it's what are called SATs inside bitcoin where I think they can probably make a functional blockchain out of that if it ever gets into trouble as well. So series of very technical reasons beyond our conversation today, But I do think bitcoin's become a more serious real player over the next ten or one hundred years than I ever thought it was going to be.

Stay with me. Mark will be back in a minute. I'm speaking to Mark Carnegie, founder of MC Digital Group. Bring this to Australia. What's the regulatory settings in Australia likehood, Maybe it doesn't matter because whatever the US does we have to follow.

Yeah, I mean that's my SoundBite, which is you've had a sea change from Gensler to the new guy at the SEC, and that's going to swamp everything else. Now, I still think there's an opportunity for Australia to have a different set of arrangements because the Americans are so down on China at the moment, and if we're willing to create an independent sort of third party for US as far as our financial regulations are concerned, we'll be able to deal with both China and America as that trade war develops. And I think currency weaponizing the currency is going to be a big, big component of that and we stand to benefit. I know it's an obscure sort of tangent for your listeners. But that US dollar currency bond that was issued in Saudi Arabia by the Chinese shows a really, really good example of how you can, if you're a third party affiliate of America, use the weaponization of the dollar for advantage rather than disadvantage. And I think cryptocurrency is a really good example of how you're going to be able to do that if you created sophisticated policy set in Australia.

Okay, so sorry, you're going to have to explain that one to me a little bit more. Why does crypto benefit from that?

So just think for a moment. You got this Oudi Arabia point, which was if you declare war on America at the moment, or you declare war on one of America's allies, they'll seize all your US dollars that are sitting in your account. And so basically the world financial system changed with the Ukraine War, where US dollars, which is the world's reserve currency, is no longer safe if you've got any contested foreign.

Policy with somebody else. Yeah, yep.

The second thing that happens is if you are subject to US sanctions of any sort. You're not allowed to open a US dollar bank account at the moment, and so all of the banks that are correspondent banks sit there and say we're not going to touch you if you're doing any one of a thousand things. It's not long before that escalates from what i'd call military weaponization to economic weaponization. That is the trade war that's about to start out. You're seeing it already where third party countries that buy stuff from China and then sell it to the Chinese are saying, sorry, we're not going to supply you those rare errors, and Americans are sitting there and saying, well, we're going to make you subject to sanctions as well. It's not long before the banking rails get done in the same way. And that's where I think cryptocurrencies and being able to have a set of US dollar stable coin accounts in an Australian bank account and an Australian crypto account is actually going to be a way for Australia to take a different view from the US about its trade relationships as it already has with China, and create an advantage out of that. Now we've done none of that at the moment. But I regard that as being a really, really big opportunity unity for regional financial services, and I think the Singaporeans and others are looking at that and saying, how good's that going to be? The question is whether Australia is going to do it. I think the Singaporeans are there already. I think the Japanese are there as well, but we not so.

Much because we're too allied to the US because they don't want to think about it.

What's the reason, No, I think it's because we're being so reactive. I just think the skepticism around Bitcoin, which I completely understand, has blinded us to the rest of the staff. And I think that the catastrophic failure of the Banking Royal Commission from the point of view of customers as opposed to the lawyers who took hundreds of millions of dollars of fees, is another example where you've got this massive regulatory capture, which means that consumer interests are just being ignored at the moment mark.

This isn't the most upbeat conversation I've had on this show in recent times. How realistic is it that a true trade walk and flow to what you're talking about to I mean, I suppose you're seeing the bricks. Countries are already talking about let's have a reserve currency that's not the US dollars, right, and the US Donald Trump's responded to that. But kind of what you're this totally upends your unit of exchange basically, if this all happens, sure.

But I mean I think you and me are perhaps you know, old enough to remember the time where people said free trade is actually a good thing. Yeah, so we're about you know, and you remember that part of the whole depression was smooth, holy and the tariffs that the Americans imposed back in the nineteen thirties, that was accepted understanding of how the things were going to work. Well, now we've declared this massive trade war amongst the two biggest countries and economies in the world, and we're sitting there and going, yes, it's boom time for you know, Christmas. We're going to have a record high stock market at the moment. Call me skeptical, but explained to me how a trade war is going to be good for everyone. And it just explained to me why we're meant to hate the Chinese this.

Week now I couldn't agree more with you. And then tariffs aren't going to improve efficiency and productivity around the world, and that's not a good thing in terms of longevity, costs, a quality of living and stuff like that. I just I suppose I'm slowly surprised by how vigorous you are in this argument.

Sure, And that's the reason I'm vigorous in this particular case is you're creating this bottleneck where crypto is going to find a way around it. And I think there's an opportunity there for Australia to be a regulated cryptocurrency country where we can use our alliance with the US to take a differentiated point of view and capture some some of the value that the Singaporeans are getting ready to do. There's a whole series of reasons why there's Singaporeans need to be moderate about this because of their even closer relationship with China.

But I think there's great opportunity out of it.

It's just we're not showing a much evidence that we're actually getting after the economic opportunity here at the moment.

Unfortunately, we are out of time. Mark, Thank you very much for talking to fear and greed.

Thank you very much Sean for having me.

That was Mark Canegie principal at mh Carnegie and co and founder of MHC Digital Group. This is the Fear and Greed Business Interview. Remember this is general information only and you should see professional advice before making investment decisions. Join us every morning for the full episode of Fear and Greed, daily business news for people who make their own decisions. I'm Sean Elmer. Enjoy your day.

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