Thursday 28 November 2024
New inflation figures show any future rate cut is a long time away
And more, including:
The superannuation industry hits $4 trillion dollars
A major break-through in peace negotiations in the Middle East
Plus Gerry Harvey warns on the economy, and we tell you about a delivery person who hid $US132 million from his employer
Plus don’t miss the new episode of The Property Pendulum, brought to you by Domain and Fear & Greed. This week’s episode: the hottest trends in homes right now. Get it from APPLE, SPOTIFY, or anywhere you listen to podcasts.
Today on Fear and Greed. New inflation figures show any future rate cut is a long time away. The superannuation industry hits four trillion dollars and a major breakthrough in peace negotiations in the Middle East. Plus Jerry Harvey warns on the economy, and we will tell you about a delivery person who hid one hundred and thirty two million US dollars from his employer. It's quite the story. Welcome to Fear and Greed, Daily business news for people who make their own decisions. It is Thursday, the twenty eighth of November twenty twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Sean.
Ailmar Good morning, Michael, great story.
Oh to Cracker. It's coming up a bit later on the main story though this morning, Sean. Underlying inflation in Australia remains stubbornly high. It is well above the Reserve banks preferred level, meaning rate cuts are off the agenda, at least kind of for now, for the time being.
Right, So the trimmed mean in the Reserve Bank's preferred rate rose last month, not fell, rose from three point two percent to three point five percent in October. Price pressures are across a broad range of consumer goods and services, at least they were last month. That's the bad news. The headline inflation is actually low two point one percent lower than expected. It reflects energy rebates federally and in some states, but it actually artificially lowers the real state of price rises. When those rebates end, headline inflation will jump back much closer to underlying inflation. Underlying inflation, of course, is what the Reserve Bank looks at. Households are bearing the run of these price rises were. Rents were up sharply over the past year due to tightness in the market. Fruit and veg prices were also much higher. Underlying inflation has now been above the two to three percent preferred target range for three years. Why was supply constraints would beg part of that, but also there's this persistent demand from the post pandemic spending taking long time to get out of the market. All so the strong labor market that is keeping pressure on prices.
Can I just ask you quickly Sean about underlying inflation and kind of why those two figures are so far apart. What underlying inflation does in terms of what it strips out and why that's a more accurate measure of kind of where we are at.
So there are a bunch of prices which are really volatile. Petrol, energy are great examples. They go up and down, and if you wanted to always include those in your economic forecast and k economic policy making, then you know, one month you'd be thinking got a cut rates, next month you think you've got a lift rates. So they try and take out the really volatile stuff and only look at the stuff that is very core to what people are spending their money on. And in the case of the energy rebates which the federal government announced, also some states like Queensland they're actually giving rebates as well. That's considered not core. I mean, that's just sort of in addition, it's part of the volatile aspect of it. The Reserve Bank doesn't look at.
That, okay. So when you then look at the the economic cycle, then it is looking increasingly likely that it's not going to marry up with the political cycle, at least at least if you're Prime Minister Anthony Alberaneesi and trying to figure out when the election needs to be.
Very very true, the election is due by the middle of May next year. Unlikely to be any interest rate cuts between now and then. I'm sure that Anthony Alberanzi and the Labor Party would have loved to have seen a rate cut before the next election. The Reserve Bank has said at once two quarters of lower inflation before moving on rates. Rates are at twelve year high as we know that. Also, analysis in recent days by Deloitte Access Economics has forecast a one hundred and forty nine billion dollar budget deficit over the next four years and what they call off budget deficits of another eighty seven billion dollars. So what works close to two hundred and thirty billion dollars on budget off budget over the next four years. Now, these off budget things are stuff like for giving Heck's debt, so you don't carry it on the balance sheet, but it is a real cost when you have big budget deficits. That's not necessarily good for government wanting to get re elected. Also, they keep interest rates relatively higher than they would have been otherwise. Then, Michael, there's the Trump factor. When he takes office in early January, there could be a surgeon inflationary pressures globally if he slaps tariffs on imports into the US. Many economists, including those at National Australia Bank and Westpac, now forecasting the next rate move, presumably downwards, to be the middle of next year, probably after the election. As you said, the economic and political cycles are not lining up for Anthony Alberanezi.
No, not looking too good now. Staying in the world of economics, the value of housing construction SEAN hit a three year high in the September quarter, in some good news for the struggling sector.
That's right. The value of residential housing jump nearly two percent to twenty three point four billion dollars. Haven't seen that level of residential housing construction in about three years. We last saw those sort of numbers when the governm was making pandemic payments and that was supporting the sector. There's also jumping construction engineering. It shows a boom in federal and state infrastructure spending on an annual basis. Building activity has been concentrated in the non residential sector think infrastructure, whereas dwelling construction new homes has been flat, even though more houses are needed. It suggests the economic growth rate for the September quarter will come in the low ones. Now there's still a fair bit to feed into that number. We get it later. We'll get it in a week's time or so. The September quarter GDP a bunch of figures still to go in that, but it suggests the economies expanding at about one one and a half percent.
And finally, the local share market pushed back above eighty four hundred points yesterday. Do you say eight thousand, four hundred or eighty four hundred, I don't know.
I'm an eighty four hundred person total.
All right, well, we'll stick with that. It's hard, isn't it. When I was thinking about this yesterday. Kind of when you go from say print, as you did, into audio, suddenly you've got to get used to a whole kind of different way of operating, and suddenly you're dealing withnunciations in a podcast world, and goodness me, it's tough.
The hardest one for me, which you taught me, is that audio is in the present tense and print is in the past tense. Unless you're doing a feature than in print it's in the present tense. But generally on news it's past tense. Audio it's present tense. So I'm forever mixing my tenses up. So I'm so used to past tense, but trying to do present tense.
You would think we are nearly five years now interfear and greed.
Yeah, these are low learner, slow learner.
I think we're all slow learners. We are gradually adjusting to this whole new world of podcasting. Back to markets, though eighty four hundred points.
Yesterday, yes the S and PASX two hundred closed eighty four zero seven points, up zero point six percent. Consumer discretionary stocks led the way, although all said eleven sub indices were higher. Commwealth Bank had lost ground on Tuesday. Yesterday it jumped more than one and a half percent, Force Q Metals Group, Goodman, Twelstra, Aristocrat Leisure. They all ended up more than one percent. The lag Yards were amongst the large caps at least BHPO, Tinto, Woodside and Macquarie. In the midst of AGM season, City Sheep Collective. Try and say that three times really fast. You're going to get yourself into trouble. Okay, yesterday, Oh to try it, I was like.
You paused, and I'm like, do I actually need to do this? It does feel like I'm actually going I swear there are children listening to this podcast, so you're going to try it? City sheet collective city sheet, collective city sheet collection.
I think I'm fine, well done well. It's share price fell more than twenty five percent yesterday after the retailer provided a training update and our w holdings held an AGM. It's a resources and infrastructure contract services group. It recorded a first strike against executive payments and HMC capital rally two percent half. The fund manager upgraded it's earnings out Look.
All right, Sean, We've got plenty to come. We are talking superannuation. We're talking lithium and travel stocks and how an employee hit one hundred and thirty two million US dollars, So much more to cover. We'll be back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sure on the pot of gold that is. Superannuation in Australia has climbed above four trillion dollars for the first time. It just keeps on hitting milestones, doesn't it.
It sure does. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority said total assets raised by three point seven percent in the September quarter to four point one trillion dollars. So why is it jump so high. Well, remember the superannuation guarantee jumped from eleven percent to eleven and a half percent on July one. That certainly helped. Also strong market returns both the ASEX and Wall Street are close to record levels or at record levels. Hence you're seeing some benefits on the return side of things. The self many super fun sector now accounts for over one trillion dollars of super money, about twenty five percent massive For the quarter, net inflows were one hundred and ninety one billion dollars, outflows for one hundred and twenty bits million dollars. A lot of industry, a lot of pressure on the industry though, on the back of links with the union movement how they actually spend their money, particularly around marketing and performance of course, but it's a sector that just keeps growing thanks to that mandated super guarantee. Mind you, it's still well below the value of the housing sector that one sits at about eleven trillion dollars.
Sean Harvey Norman held it to AGM yesterday and chair Jerry Harvey said Australia is heading into a great, big black hole of government debt. Jerry Harvey has a way with words, doesn't.
He He sure it does. The veteran retailer said Australia will be in a much worse position in five years time, according to report in The Australian. He said, we can't keep going as we are with rising costs for health, n dis aged care and social services. He doesn't think interest rates will be significantly lower for another twelve months or so now. Over All, the Australian economy is doing okay, he said. Same store sales from July to October we're up one and a quarter percent or one point four percent to be exact. He battered away suggestions that online retailing was a threat. Harvey Norman are particularly strong in large format home and lifestyle stores and communities, which they said have support of economy, strategic regional planning and efficient transport and logistics systems. Harvey Norman's share price closed up three percent yesterday. It's up about eighteen percent for the year.
Rare earth company Linus yesterday warned of ongoing volatility and commodity markets at its AGM. That share price closed up just over one percent.
So Linus is from Western Australia. A mind from West Australia. It's the biggest rare earth producer outside China. It's a bit different to the lithium companies in that mean, rare earth is obviously different to lithium, but it has seen a lot of volatilian prices. Now in the lithium sector, we've seen a lot of lower prices and they're struggling. At Linus's AGM yesterday, the chair said that market voluntility was contingent on what happens in China. There have been big drops in rare earths used in products like air conditioning units and aircraft engines. But the big one is the slow down in electric vehicle sales. That's hit prices. Not as bad as the lithium stocks, but certainly has hurt rare earth producers.
Sean web Travel, which less than two months ago was part of Webjet. It made a fifty two and a half million dollar profit for the six months to the end of September and the new sentence share price up thirteen percent, the best on the day for the top hundred stocks.
Now two months ago, web Travel emerged from web Jet. Web Travel is part of webbeds. Is their main brand? Is it B to B business? The Webjet business now is a B two C business business, business to consumer business. The web beds business is going really well. Stop looking at me like that, Michael. I'm getting my webs and beds mixed up all over the place.
It just it sounds like you're talking about like Spider Man and where Spider Man would sleep, like webbeds, webjet web Okay, all right, let's go, oh dear, it's as bad as you and trying to get through a city sheet collective.
That's it. That's it. The web beds business is going well. Booking through up twenty two percent to four point three million. That's for the six months to the end of September. Growth is coming across different regions. They've upgraded the full year results as well. They've also announced a one hundred and fifty million dollar share buy back, hence the share price jump thirteen percent yesterday.
New South Wales just managed to escape blackouts yesterday after Sydney recorded its hottest November day since twenty twenty.
In the middle of the day, Premier Chris Mins called on people to turn off pool pumps, dishwashers and air conditioners. He wanted as little household use as possible between three pm and eight pm as temps hit the high thirties across the city. A surgeon consumption alongside outages that four units along the East Coast means supply was very, very tight. The Australian Energy Market Operator said there was insufficient reserves in terms of generation across the day. Now the AEMO, the operator ended up stepping in and using emergency powers to force industry to keep demand stable, which helps with supply and hopefully reduce demand if possible. It's more about keeping demand stable than it is actually cutting demand in that instance, Okay.
Turning to international news now, and Israeli and Lebanese leaders have accepted a US broken to cease fire deal, raising hopes shorn of an end to the year long hostilities between Israel's forces and Hesbela.
It came into effect at four am Israel time. It's about lunchtime yesterday Australian time. It occurred after was approved by Israel's security cabinet in needed also to be approved by Lebanon's caretaker government. US President Joe Biden to the deal was designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities. Let's hope so Israeli defense forces will gradually withdraw from Lebanon over a period of sixty days and be replaced by the Lebanese Army. HEZBLA, the Lebanese militant group will be banned from rebuilding its infrastructure in southern parts of that country. Australia's Foreign Affairs Minister, Pennywong welcomed the announcement, saying she hopes it's a catalyst for a broader ceasefire.
The news of the HESBLA ceasefire helped international markets, didn't it? Sure did.
Wall Street hit a new high. The S and P five hundred managed for the fifty second time this year to peak. Oil prices also eased back. Also worth a mention, in the US, the minutes of the Federal Reserve Board meeting were released. They showed that officials were divided about how many more rate cuts are needed. That news paired back expectations of another rate cut in the world's biggest economy.
When you were talking on Monday on fear and greed the week ahead to Stephen Coculus, our resident economist, you were discussing the upcoming at that stage meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the potential for additional rate cuts there and well, yesterday the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its benchmark interest rate by fifty basis points. That's another big cut, pushing the rate below Australia's cash rate.
So we're very comparable to New Zealand. Our cash rates it is now at four point twenty five percent. We're at four point three five percent. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been aggressively cutting rates since August amid a deterioration in the economy. Mind you, they were coming off a much higher point than our local rates. It's the third consecutive rate cut from the central bank over there. Australia is now well and truly on the outer when it comes to rate cuts. Think US, UK, euro Canada, New Zealand. They're all heading down. We ain't.
Finally, Sean, it is time to talk about this. This is really quite a remarkable story. US retailer Macy's has delayed the release of quarterly results after it revealed that an employee had hidden but not stolen. There's an important sinction. They're hidden but not stolen. At least one hundred and thirty two million US dollars of expenses related to customer deliveries over the past three years.
This is just odd. A loan employee, a loan employee who had responsibility for small package delivery expense accounting had an I quote intentionally made eriness accounting a cruel entries quote to hide between one hundred and thirty two million and one hundred and fifty four million US dollars of cumulative expenses between late twenty twenty four and November, So that's three years. Basically, Macy's owns its namesake chain of department stores along with utmarker Bloomingdale's and the Blue Mercury cosmetics chain, hasn't had a good time of it, with its share price down twenty percent this year. Now, according to the ft the Financial Times, Macy's didn't disclose the name or alleged motives of the employee involved in hiding the delivery expenses. That said the person had left the company. Really, what a surprise. The alleged amount concealed was a fraction of these four point three six billion dollars in delivery expenses that the company recognized during the period. Now I'm totally speculating, but one thing that Macy's has been pushing is its ability to reduce delivery costs, and so analysts have quite liked the fact that Macy's have been really tight on delivery costs. Well, I think we know why after about one hundred and fifty two hundred and thirty million dollars Ossie one hundred and fifty you has not accounted for.
It is just an extraordinary story that one. Anyway, up next, Sean in the Fear and Greed Playlist is the Property Pendulum, brought to you by Domain and Fear and Greed, and today we are talking about trends in property, trends in houses specifically, and the things that you need to have in your house if you want to kind of secure the best price, and the things that you should steer clear of as well, things that are either kind of just old or or that are just too dar niche that no one is going to want to buy that place. So anyway, we discuss all of this in the Property Pendulum. It is coming up next in the Fear and Greed Playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot are you thank you, Sean, thank.
You, Michael.
It is Thursday, the twenty eighth of November twenty twenty four. Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook, TikTok and X. I'm Michael Thompson. That was fear and greed.
Have a great day.