Hardie’s $14b bid for US co; billions in budget handouts; Disney’s Snow White madness

Published Mar 24, 2025, 5:00 PM

Tuesday 25 March 2025

James Hardie bids $14 billion for a US building products company, and its share price gets hammered. 

And more, including:

  • Tonight’s federal budget set to hand out billions of dollars for cost-of-living relief, health and housing. 
  • And Disney’s controversial version of Snow White hits the big screen. 
  • Plus the phoney election campaign accelerates and plenty of corporate news.

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Today on Fear and Greed, James Hardy bids fourteen billion dollars for a US building products company and at share price gets hammered. Tonight's federal budget set to hand out billions of dollars for cost of living relief, health and housing. And Disney's controversial version of Snow White hits the big screen. Plus the phony election campaign accelerates, and plenty of corporate news. Welcome to Fear and Greed, daily business news for people who make their own decisions. It is Tuesday, the twenty fifth of March twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson, and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

Good morning, Michael, Sean.

The main story this morning building supplies group James Hardy will buy outdoor decking and railing company Azek in a fourteen billion dollar cash and script deal and shift headquarters off the asx onto. The New York Stock Exchange Chief.

Executive Aaron Erte, who's been running James Hardy for a little over two years, said the combination of companies made sense. In fact, he said, one plus one equals three. It doesn't.

I don't know if that really illustrates the points He's trying to make you no, I don't think so.

He says it's going to be a one stop shop for building contractors and home renovators in the US, wall clanning, and cement, fiberboard with outdoor living products. James Hardy generates about seventy five percent of its four billion US dollars an annual revenue from North America, so that perhaps it's not that surprising that it ultimately will end up headquartered there. Under the deal, AAZX shareholders will get about twenty six percent of the new company. The primary listing of the new group James Hardy and AASEAC will be on the New York Stock Exchange secondary listing on the AX. Local investors weren't exactly thrilled with James Hardy's share price tumbling fifteen percent yesterday. The big concern is it's paying too high a price at list in the short term for the bus business.

Yeah, that is a big whack. There does seem to be a lot of deals in the building materials sector at the moment.

It's quite incredible. A couple of years ago we talked about infrastructure being the place where everyone was buying. Well, I reckon the last twelve months, we can say building materials. So we had CSR jiprock brickmaker bought by French Group last year. Irish group CRH bought cemit maker Adbury. That was last year. Borrel was acquired by Kerry Stakes's SGH Group, So that's three companies leaving the AX last year. It's also another example of a large listed company leaving the exchange, or at least dropping its primary listing on the AX. Now. That happened last year to Goldigger new Crest. Remember Newmont bought that. You can now trade Newmont shares. It's a secondary listing in Australia, but the main listing is in Canada. In recent years we've also lost after Pay Sydney Airport. There's currently being debated about Rio Tinto's dual listing structure, whether it should actually be dual listed, which the company wants. People want to bring it back to the AX, but there's also a good argument to leave it on the London Stock Exchange and take it off this exchange. Really interesting how many of these. I mean, yesterday's deal is fascinating in terms of the building materials sector itself, but also what it means for the exchange when these big companies leave.

That's a really interesting question that you put to Roger Montgomery in today's interview. Coming up after the show, Roger, of course from Montgomery Investment Management.

So we talk about, well not specifically about this deal, though we mentioned it, but broadly we're saying, what happens to the AX when it keeps losing these big companies. And there's arguments that it's a good thing. There's arguments that is a bad thing. But the bottom line with Roger is he tells us how investors should think about it, which is fascinating.

It sure is coming up after the show, so definitely have a listened to that one. Sean very exciting day for me, at least just because I love Budget night. I don't know why I love watching the budget speech, but it is. It is Budget day officially in Canberra. I'm probably the exception to the rule because there's a little less enthusiasm this year, simply because most people seem more excited about the election that's coming up and maybe even Donald Trump's tariffs.

We're true believers, Michael, you and I when you.

Agree, we are just very very dull individual.

Very very dull so what do we know? So one point eight billion dollars to cut power bills. Everyone will get seventy five dollars per quarter off at the end of this year. An eight and a half billion dollar promise to increase bulk billing incentives six hundred and eighty nine million dollars to reduce the cost of all scripts from thirty one to fifty down to twenty five bucks. I think that's what that one was. A two year freeze in the exercise indexation increases on draft beer. There you go in. Additionally, one hundred and fifty million dollars over four years for housing. Almost all will be used to increase income caps for the government's Helped to Buy scheme, which allows participants to buy a property with a depositive amount as low as two percent. There will be money for roads in Queensland, Victoria and New South Wales. Money for defense, particularly around radars and long range of missiles, though not huge amounts. Of course, this time tomorrow morning we'll have it all for everyone.

We will, and we will be dissecting it in some detail. Sean. There isn't an election campaign going on, at least not officially, but you put all of this together, right, it certainly feels like there.

Is Look once we get rid of this pesky budget tonight and Opposition leader Peter Dunn's response on Thursday night, then Anthony albineasy can call an election any day, normally happens on a Sunday. Yesterday he said, well, when asked specifically about it, he evaded. Basically said, you know, terms should run the full three years, but that doesn't actually answer the question when he's going to call the election. Yesterday, the big announcement was a landmark agreement between the federal government and Queensland over school funding. It means every public school student across the nation will receive a fully funded education. Now. Queensland has been the real holdout ever since Gonsku reforms more than ten years ago. After months of back and forth, federal government has agreed to a deal with that state to lift the Comonwealth's contribution from twenty percent of the Schooling Resource Standard, an estimate of how much public funding a school needs, to about twenty five percent by twenty thirty four. For its part, the Coalition yesterday said it would return the budget to surplus if it wins government. No details on that one change Hume, the finance spokesperson for the coalition. She said, if elected, they'll restore fiscal guardrails.

That's a good way to put it.

What makes it boring? Don't you reckon restored? I know guardrails.

I think we've already established that you and I are boring individuals, so that kind of really appeals to us.

I think you're more boring than me. I've just that one.

Yeah, but that's a self assessment, Sean. I don't think you can do that. Before we leave politics. Just one last story, and this is not boring at all. Independent and highly popular Teal MP Monique Ryan is in a little bit of hot water after video emerged of her husband Peter Jordan, removing campaign posters for her Liberal opponent, Amerelia Hamer.

I think this is hilarious. So, Minique Ryan holds a Melbourne seat of Kyong, once a blue ribbon liberal seat. Josh Friedenberg held it until Ryan beat him in the last election. Have you seen the video which shows Jordan running down the street with a poster under his arm, Hilary, He and Ryan have apologized, but I loved Jordan's comment, so in a statement and I quote. I believe the sign was illegally placed, but I should have reported my concerns to counsel.

You think, really, it is a great story.

It is a great story.

I haven't seen the video. Definitely checked that one out. Sean much more still to come. We'll be back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news.

Sewn.

The local share market closed flight yesterday after tumbling early, then spending the rest of the day making.

Up ground well thanks considered pre budget tariff confusion, the big James Hardy announcement. Pretty good day really. The market finished at thirty nine points. Good day, but a bit of an odd day. So you had consumer discretionary stocks and financials doing really well and pretty much everyone else didn't. NAB and Westpac were both up around two percent. Commwealth Bank finished up one and a half percent. A few other odds and bods We's Farmer's, Risocrat Leisure for the skin metals group, they did well. Not that they'd like to be called odds and bods, I suppose, but they did well. Not so good big retailers, Wooley's Coal, Sigma Healthcare, which of course is a big farmer Sam Yes, Transurban didn't do very well. Why global that did poorly as well?

What about international markets? Just the numbers, goals?

Training at three and twenty two US dolls announced Brench crews around seventy two US dollars a barrel, bitcoins around eighty five thousand US dollars unit, and iron ore. Which is the time of year, we get very interested in iron ore one hundred US dollars a ton. And Michael, why do we get so interested? You answer the question.

We do get interested about iron ore at this time because it is budget time and we've got a great fear and greed and ask fear and greed question that is coming up today at midday where we delve into that very topic.

Right exactly, so we look at the pluses and minuses from the budget and why things like unemployment rates and the price of iron ore matter so much to the budget bottom line.

Yeah, so that's coming up at midday. Keep and I out an ear out. I suppose it's an ear out, isn't it.

Now?

There's an era for that one at midday. Mortgage insurer Herelia's share price tumbled twenty six percent yesterday after warning investors that its current contract with Commonwealth Bank may not run beyond December thirty one, as the banking giant commences negotiations with an alternative mortgage insurer, a.

Very cautionarytail, this one. It would be a massive loss to Helia, given CBA is the country's largest home lender and supplies about fifty three percent of Helia's business. Commonwealth Bank has told Helia that it is in negotiations with another mortgage insurer. Clearly Helia has been too reliant on one provider. Obviously, Commonwealth Bank is a fantastic customer to have, but wow, didn't get Hammond yesterday when it came out that it may well lose its number one customer.

At Mineral Resources, share price jumped seven percent yesterday after reopening its Onslow Iron Hall Road it was closed after a sixth truck crash on the roadway. We've been talking a bit about this, Sean. This is quite stary.

This is getting close to one of my favorite stories so far this year. No, it's not good for Mineral Resources, but the size of these trucks, these triple laid trucks carrying iron, all three hundred and thirty tons of iron or on each truck. Problem is they keep crashing now. Minrez has said it will spend tens of millions of dollars upgrading the track, which goes to its three billion dollar on slow project. Good news yesterday and the share price jumps seven percent, but Minres's share price is down sixty five percent last year. It has been a shocker.

Let's turn to international news now, Sean, because we've got a few stories we need to get through. New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has called a snap election for April twenty eight, saying that he needs a strong mandate to deal with the threat posed by US President Donald Trump, who quote wants to break US so America can own us. This is not uncommon, is it for a political leader to use an external threat as a way of rallying support? Very unusual for that threat to come from the US to Canada.

Yeah, exactly. Although the next election is not due until October twenty, Karney's hoping to capitalize on a fairly remarkable recovery by his Liberal party in the polls since January, when Trump again threatening Canada and former Prime Minister Justin Todau announced his resignation upon being sworn in as Prime minister. On March fourteen, Carney said he could have a good relationship with Trump. He said he respected Donald Trump. He's changed his mind, I quote. We are facing the most significant crisis of our lifetimes because of President Trump's unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty. Our response must be to build a strong economy and a more secure Canada. President Trump claims that Canada isn't a real country. He wants to break us so America can own us. We will not let that happen.

It is just a gift for a can campaign, isn't it.

I'm standing up now. I'm a proud Canadian. I mean that they are fighting words.

They certainly are from Canadians well. The Trump Administration's coming wave of tariffs, which we know is happening early next month, likely to be more targeted than initially threatened, with the focus being on retribution for countries with a trade surplus with the US.

Donald Trump is preparing Liberation Day tariff announcements on April two. While the announcements will be a very significant expansion of US tariffs, it's shaping as probably more focused than Donald Trump has mused. According to Bloomberg, he'll announced widespread reciprocal tariffs on nations or blocks. I think the EU, but is set to exclude some well as of now some areas, and the administration isn't planning separate sector specific tariffs like the aluminium tariffs for example, not going to do more of those. Still, Trump is looking for immediate impact on the announcement. He is likely to say that the new tariffs will take effect right away. Only countries that don't have tariffs in the US and with whom the US has a trade surplus will not be tariffed under the reciprocal plan, according to an official, not quite sure where Australia sits in next. We have a trade deficit with the US, it has a trade surplus with US. Tick. Not sure whether the GST fits in excising customs duty fixing. I have to wait and see.

Oh yeah, yeah. There's a lot of suspense then leading up to April too. Sure is sounds like more uncertainty for markets, Sean.

I'd say, sir, yes, Mike.

Look, Disney's we need to talk about this Story's live action version of the classic fairy tale snow White, which somehow incredibly has become almost the most controversial movie of the year so far, has topped the North American box office despite a bunch of very underwhelming reviews.

Yes So was the number one over the last weekend. Took about eighty seven million US dollars globally, about half that came from North America, actually below expectations, so not everyone saying it was a good weekend. It cost about two hundred and seventy million dollars to make. The reworking of the nineteen thirty seven feature length animation seemed like a sure fire hit before running into a series of controversies ahead of its release. I suppose I started listing them so. There was criticism of the casting of Rachel Zegler, who's of Colombian descent, as a heroine. There's also a backlash about Zegler's pro Palestinian comments and about pro Israel comments by Israeli actress Gal Gadot, who plays snow White step mother the Evil Queen throw in Zeglar's comments about the movie being about a stalker on social media. Also the ongoing debate about whether they should even have been dwarfs in the film at all. In fact, Disney reclassified them as magical creatures. None of the actors were Dwarfs. They were altered, so the actual no Dwarf actors were used. It's just become a total flashpoint for the anti woke movement.

Yeah. I don't even know where to go with that.

Yeah, nowhere to go with that.

I think you've said it all up. Next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview with Roger Montgomery from Montgomery Investment Management. A must listen, and of course keep an eye on the playlist at midday today for the new episode of ours Fear and Greed plenty coming up on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com today you which is where you sign up for the Fear and Greed newsletter as well. Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael. It is Tuesday, the twenty fifth of March twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. A'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.