Wednesday 25 June 2025
An extraordinary 36 hours in geopolitics and financial markets, with US President Donald Trump brokering a fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
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Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today and extraordinary thirty six hours in geopolitics and financial markets, with US President Donald Trump seemingly brokering a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Virgin Australia rejoins the share market and at share price jumps eleven percent on day one, and the regulator focuses in on superannuation companies spending plus Rio Tinto and Gina Reinhardt do a deal to expand iron are mining in the Pilbra, and the first images are released of the world's biggest telescope. It is Wednesday, the twenty fifth of June twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
I'm Michael Thompson, and I'm really excited because there's a space story today.
You had me at telescope, Sean. That's a rare great newsletter today. By the way, no telescopes in oh Well, Ashley.
It reads a little bit of tell lets.
There is a telescope in there, but I mean we keep the telescopes to a minimum.
That's true. The news that is great, plenty of things in it this morning. If you want to be ahead when you get to work, read the news. Let it lane take you three or four minutes. You can do it on your phone during your commute. If you do not receive it this morning, it means you probably haven't signed up for it. So fearangreed dot com dot au or the show notes today.
Yeah, easy to click on, easy to subscribe, and it's all free. On with the show plenty to get through the main story this morning, Sean, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran broken by Donald Trump, appears to be holding, but only after the US President lashed out at both countries. Yes, it has been an incredible thirty six hours in global politics, starting with Iran attacking a US military basing guitar in response to Washington launching attacks on nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend. The Iranian attack thirty six hours ago was ineffective. There were no casualties. Significantly, other countries in the region criticized Iran. That triggered conference on Global financial markets that Iran didn't want an all out war with the US. Equity markets around the world, including an Australia, surged and oil prices tumbled. In fact, oil is now back to the level it was before Israel attacked Iran on thirteen June. Then yesterday morning Australian time, Donald Trump announced an Iranian Israeli ceasefire. By the afternoon, he was on truth social saying in caps, of course, the ceasefire is now in effect, please do not violate it. Well, that didn't last very long. In fact, in the hours before the ceasefire took effect, Israel said it had killed hundreds of Iranian security personnel in bombing raids in Tehran, while an Iranian missile pierced Israeli air defenses, hitting a residential building in Besheba, killing at least four people. After the truce came into a force, Iran fired three further missiles, according to Israeli officials. Donald Trump then lashed out at both Israel and Iran, denouncing violations by both sides. He said, and I quote a part of the language here, We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the f they're doing. That's from the President of the United States.
He added that he was really unhappy with Israel in particular, but insisted that the ceasefire is in effect. Donald Trump has not criticized Israel this whole time, so the fact that he actually said he was really unhappy with him is significant. As we go to here this morning, the ceasefire is holding. In the last few hours, Israel's military lifted emergency restrictions imposed during the conflict. That's good news. And Iran's president hailed the end of a twelve day war that was imposed on the Iranian people in an address to the nation, So that's promising as well. But Michael, incredible thirty six hours and really anything could still happen.
Yeah, and those comments by the President, particularly the comment aimed at Israel when he was talking about the fact that as soon as we made the deal, they came out and dropped a load of bombs the likes of which I've never seen before. It was very, very pointed from the US President. Now, it has been an incredible period. Pretty amazing as well that Trump, first of all this being so open, but it's also seems to be running a lot of policy via truth social What's the local response been to all of this. So we haven't heard from Anthony Abanezi this morning. Yesterday, the Prime Minister says solving said that solving the Palestinian question is key to resolving the issues in the Middle East. In an interview on Sky News, he said he found it a bit rich that Iran was complaining about strikes when it had been a state sponsor of terrorism. He said, Australia wants to see regional peace and security. Of course, it's very hard for Anthony Albanzi or any global leader to comment on much on this because it's moving so fast and they're not getting the heads up from the US government at all, so really they're just spectators as well in all that's going on. Okay, now, the news certainly seem to help the ASX yesterday, certainly helping Wall Street this morning. ASX closed up one percent yesterday, Commonwealth Bank again hitting a new high.
Yes The market finished eight thousand, five hundred and fifty six points. Most sectors did well, with the exception of the energy stocks, which fell alongside the price of oil. Woodside tumbled seven percent, Crewon Energy was off eight percent. Santos Origin Energy, Viva Energy all sharply lower. The b banks were stronger. Commonwealth Bank finished up two percent, giving it a market capitalization of three hundred and fifteen billion dollars. National Australia Bank and Westpac were also up sharply. The big miners did well. BHP Fortescue in Rio rose between two and three percent.
I don't know why I sounded so disgruntled about Commonwealth Bank hitting a new high there.
It just keeps on.
Maybe it's just because it's becoming a bit repetitive short.
Yeah, eight hundred thousand shareholders though, that's eight hundred thousand happy people.
Yeah, it's a very good point now, given everything else happening, it didn't seem like such a good day on the surface of it for Virgin Australia to rejoin the ASX. But oh my gosh, Day one was a cracker. The carrier's share price immediately jumped seven and a half percent.
That's right, so falling oil prices. Fuel is the major cost of airlines, of course, so falling oil prices and news of the ceasefire between Iran and Israel overshadowed pretty much everything else. Within minutes, Virgin share price went from TWI law's ninety to three dollars fifteen. By the close, it was up to three dollars twenty two, meaning an eleven percent jump on day one, not bad. Virgin CEO Dave Emerson said the conflict overseas was distressing, though of limited impact to the airline because ninety percent of its business is domessic. Virgin collapsed into voluntary administration in twenty twenty when the pandemic shut down borders. US. Private equity group Being Capital paid seven hundred million dollars to assume its liabilities. Five years later. Virgin is a very different carrier, ligned around a single fleet of Boeing seven three seven aircraft that fly only domestically, as well to as a handful of leisure destinations Fiji, Bali Vnawatu. It has a deal with Qatar Airlines to fly its passengers to other destinations. Very importantly for an airline, it has relatively little debt.
It was a good day all round for travel stocks and Sean. That's really not something we've been able to say much recently.
Not at all. Sure was quite has jumped three percent on the back of falling oil prices and reduced fears about flying roots now. Twenty four hours ago, two Virgin planes actually were the Qatar Airlines ticketed by Virgin. Two of those planes had to be diverted from the Middle East. Other carriers were canceling roots around the area. Now, whilst Skytracker is telling us there's not a lot of travel over that area, things certainly look much more settled. Other travel groups corporate travel men jump nearly five percent. Flight Center, Web Trouble both up two and a half percent, With a very noticeable exception of Quantas, which has risen more than seventy percent of the past year. All the other major trouble stocks have gone backwards over that twelve month period.
Okay, plenty of numbers all through that, Sean. Now every week we take a look at business by Numbers. The top three numbers to know for the week brought to you by zero zero dot com slash au. Three numbers here Sean. The first is three hundred and fifteen billion.
You can't go past it. The value of Commonwealth Bank. After yesterday's surge, its share price is up nearly fifty percent this financial year. What an incredible story.
Yeah, amazing. Number number two, number number number two.
Yeah.
The second number, the big number two twenty billion dollars.
The amount of money Real Tindo plans to spend in the Pilbra over the next five years as it develops iron ore minds replaces it's aging minds. It's a problem for Rio. It needs to develop these new minds. Twenty billion dollars over five years. Not bad.
Yeah, more on that one in a moment. And finally, nine percent Sean.
That's the amount oil prices have fallen in just two days as tensions in the Middle East ease.
All right, that's business by numbers, brought to you by zero Sean.
Quick break.
We'll be back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news.
Sean.
The country's largest superannuation funds are risking the financial futures of millions of Australians by spending members' funds on ventures that do not have clear benefits. This is a warning from the financial services regulator.
The Australian Frinancial Regulation Authority said in a letter to super funds that the industry followed suboptimal policies and displayed a lack of rigor when making spending decisions. According to report in the fin Review, the letter raised a broader governance can with the level of scrutiny applied to new or ongoing arrangements. It's the latest intervention from the regulator, which monitors where the funds are acting in the best financial interests of their members, after it put the sector on notice in October.
Rio Tinto and Gina ryan Hart Hancock Prospecting have agreed to develop a two point four billion dollar iron ore project in Well. Obviously in Western Australia, that's where everything happens, right.
Yeah, sure it does. The mining giants received state and federal governor approval to develop the two deposits in the Pilboro region first Or from Hope Downs Too and Embedded Hilltop is scheduled for twenty twenty seven. Rio said this tranch of new Minds will replace aging projects in the Pilbra read a. Rio's share of the investment is about eight one hundred million dollars now. Rio Tinto, which opened the two point four billion dollar Western Range mind projects last month, it tends to spend around twenty billion dollars in the Pilbra over the next five years. That's where our business by numbers came from from Michael Indeed.
Now Treasury Winer States has cut its twenty twenty five twenty six growth projections for its flagship Penfolds brand, as it flagged a five percent share buy back this year.
Despite the weaker outlook, the company has no plan to cut Penfolds prices, Damn, saying that demand for premium wine remains solid. Treasury blame the downgrade and the cost of additional staff. Highest to be sales chief executive Tim Ford, who's about to leave the company, sees the global decline in wine consumption has been confined to the under fifteen dollars a bottle range.
In state politics, Shawn a couple of the larger states brought down budgets yesterday. Queensland's first Liberal national government in a decade won't be delivering a surplus before heading back to the polls in twenty twenty eight, while in New South Wales, the min's government is forecasting a surplus in three years.
New South Wales first affair it's aid data fair with reductions and deficits and debt in coming years. The health budget included twelve point four billion dollars to build an upgrade health infrastructure over the next four years. In education, the government spending nine billion dollars to build for news schools. The government will spend one point two billion dollars to support children in out of home care. It will also become a guaranteur for developers looking for financing for new mid and low rise housing projects. In Queensland, State Treasurer David Genetzi blamed a rise in next year's deficit on lower coal royalties and being shortchanged in the GST cover as well, of course, as fiscal mismanagement by the former government. They all do that in terms of spending. The eight point five billion dollars in concessions, rebates and discounts for cost of living support, the big one permanent fifty cent public transport fairs in Queensland also power relief for six hundred thousand Queenslanders.
Turning to international news now, the first NATO summit in the new Trump world kicked off overnight in the Netherlands. Swiss US support of Europe top of the agenda.
Trump has made it clear he doesn't want NATO members free loading. That's his word, off the US security guarantees. European allies want to prove they're spending money on defense now. According to analysts, NATO's Secretary General Mark Rutt designed the summit that started last night around Trump wanting to flatter him by agreeing to massive heights in defense spending to show that Europeans would now take more responsibility for their own security. Michael, I'm afraid developments over the past few days has probably changed the ground rules. Rather than being all about Russia and Ukraine. You suspect that the Middle East is likely to get a bigger run.
I suspect that might be right. Finally, Sean, can we talk telescopes?
Yeah? Sure.
A very powerful new telescope in South America has released its first images showing off, really what is an unprecedented ability to peer into the darkest depths of the universe.
Poetic, wasn't very poetic? Yes? In one picture of vast, colorful gas and dust clouds swirl in the star forming region nine thousand light years from Earth, the Vira C. Reuben Observatory, home to the world's most powerful digital camera, promises to transform our understanding of the universe. If a ninth planet exists in our Solar system, scientists say this telescope will find it. It should detect killer asteroids and striking distance of Earth and map the Milky Way. Will also answer crucial questions about dark matter. The mysterious substance that makes up most of our universe. In a press conference this week, the Chilean Observatory revealed that in ten hours, the telescope detected two thousand, one hundred and four new asteroids and seven space projects close to Earth. Is that a lot? Well, all other space and ground surveys combined find about twenty twenty thousand asteroids a year. This one did two thousand in a day.
That is incredible, Pretty good. What a story, Sean.
You love it, Michael. It's your sort of stories.
Along the way that you're trying to muster some enthusiasm, enthusiasm for this spectacular Yeah, it really is.
I'm with you now.
Okay, after the show, you have an interview coming up with David Areski, who is the chief Technology Officer for Asia Pacific and Japan at BOOMY.
So it's a fascinating chat. We talk about all the new jobs that are being generated by AI, but we're not talking about, you know, the middle management. We're talking about absolute senior management position. So it's the old days, you're at CEO's chief marketing officer, CIO, chief information officer. Nowadays you need roles to cover artificial intelligence to cover data and analytics to cover security. So we talk about how that senior management group is changing and how the best performing companies are shifting earliest.
Yeah, it is an interesting conversation. It is coming up after the show on the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com todau, which is where you sign up for that free daily newsletter. Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael. It is Wednesday, the twenty fifth of June twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that wasphere and Greed.
Have a great day.