Wednesday 26 March 2025
The federal government hands down a cost-of-living relief budget, with both eyes focused firmly on the upcoming federal poll.
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Today on Fear and Greed, the federal government hands down a cost of living relief budget, with both eyes focused firmly on the upcoming federal poll. Queensland gets a new stadium for the twenty thirty two Olympic Games and a three point three billion dollar takeover offer in the gold sector, plus Qantas new cabins. And the Trump administration under fire for including a journalist in messages about a military strike. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people who make their own decisions. It is Wednesday, the twenty sixth of March twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
Good morning, Michael.
Sean big day today. The main story this morning tiny tax cuts, a cost of living relief in energy and healthcare, and deficits for the next decade. We're all the centerpieces of last night's federal budget. But you've got to say, a budget short on reform. Yes, I think that's a fair characterization. I suppose it's not really that much of a surprise, given we've got an election in the next couple of months. How about we go through the winners first. The big announcement last night, which no one knew about. Tax cuts of five dollars a week from the middle of next year, another five dollars a week from a year later. That was the surprise announcement. The Medicare levy low income threshold was increased.
That means about a million low income household seniors and pensioners will be exempt from the levee. Good for them. One hundred and fifty dollars cut in energy bills in the second half of this year. There was more money for the Clean Energy Finance Corp. Another one we were a bit surprised about. Non compete clauses in contracts affecting up to three million workers will be banned for low and middle income workers. That basically makes it easier for people to join rival firms. The maximum price of prescriptions will be reduced from thirty one dollars fifty to twenty five bucks. Gps will receive higher incentive payments to bulk bill patients. Hopefully that means you'll be able to see a doctor for free. There was also money to reduce adaptive surgery waiting times and for women's health. Outstanding university student loan balances will be cut by twenty percent this year. That needs legislation to pass that one, and the help to Buy scheme for first time buyers will be expanded. Plus there's money for apprentices and a national licensing scheme for electricians. They're the winners, Michael.
It's a pretty solid list of winners. But as you say, a lot of them we did know about in advance. That the big surprise really being those tax cuts. The losers, Sean, if that's fair to say those who did not win as much.
Yes, Look, I don't think there were too many losers because the government didn't do anything to try and repair the budget deficit. It was very happy to have big deficits twenty seven billion or thereabouts this financial year for many years to come. The losers in a sense with the usual crowd. So the ATA will get another nine hundred and ninety nine million dollars over five years to extend and expand its crackdown on deistic and multinational tax avoidance. I don't know how much money the ATA has gotten for that over the last ten years, but it just seems to be the perennial consultants such as PwC, KPMG, Deloitte, and Ewy will continue to have their access to government work constrained. The government will bolster efforts to rain in the balloooning costs of fraud in the National Disability Insurance Scheme. But really there just weren't a lot of losers out there, which again perhaps not a surprise given an election year. Yeah.
Indeed, now what about the economic outlook from the government, Because there's obviously so much data in all of this, what did it tell us about the economy?
So Jim Chalmers last night said that the economy has turned a corner. The budget will head into deficit. Now we've had two years of surpluses. The deficit for this financially use twenty seven point six billion dollars. It'll go to forty two point one billion dollars next financial year. The outlook for economic growth is modest but better than expected. So growth is expected to lift from about one and a half percent to two and a quarter percent next financial year. Infations, falling faster than previously forecasted, should remain within the Reserve Banks target band of two to three percent. Hopefully that'll convince the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates. We'll see in the budget papers it suggests that there will be a couple of rate cuts this year, though that's not to say that's going to happen. That's just Treasuries forecast the title tax intake will hit six hundred and sixty three billion dollars this financial year six to ninety four billion dollars next financial year. Income tax brings in the most money for the government. A little aside, tobacco excise revenue has collapsed another fifteen percent. It's because all these people are buying illegal tobacco at the moment. Real wages are forecast will grow by half percent, so that's your actual wage increase minus inflation. Real wages increase this year and increase next year. Unemployment remains near record lows and is expected to kind of stay fairly low for the foreseeable future.
After the show, speaking of all of the economic less that we can learn from the budget, we've got our usual interview with economist Stephen Couldculus. Basically at the in depth budget analysis. That will really set you up for the rest of the week, the rest of the year. I think so well, said, did I overseell that just then? I know at all everything entirely next year?
On the economy.
Now, look, you Sean have been around for a while, You've seen a lot of budgets. It's also quite unusual in a three year term to have a government hand down a fourth budget within that term. What's the bottom line from all.
Of this, Well, look, budget's probably best judged by what's not there. Budgets are supposed to be reform documents. They're actually supposed to look at the you know, the financial accounts of the country and work out you and I if we find that we're spending too much money, we might cut a streaming service subscription, for example, or we might reduce her grocery bills. That sort of thing hasn't happen. And this year there's no reform in this budget. Certainly no tax reform or if it's to fix the budget deficit. There's nothing to boost productivity in the economy. Now, maybe around electricians there is, but really of the non compete clause, maybe you could argue that, but really productivity is a big issue for this economy. Nothing to address that. Nothing on handling the US in the new age. Donald Trump was kind of like poisoned last night, at least in the words used, I want, wanted, to talk about Donald Trump little new on pushing the energy transition was very much a don't rock the boat headed the election budget. In fact, let's forget this budget and get on with the election campaign. I'd got it a ho hum budget as a result of that. It's a budget the government didn't want to have. It's out of the way now now we can think about the election. Michael.
Yeah, definitely an election budget of sorts. And my favorite line was delivered by the Treasurer Jim Chalmers last night after his address to Parliament, where he said it's being delivered on the eve of an election. It's driven by economics, not politics. And I just don't know whether anyone believes that.
No, I mean, it's no why I even't say it.
It's worth a try though, isn't it anyway? Sean plenty in all of that, and we've got the interview coming up with Stephen Coulculis after the show, But there is plenty of other stories that we'd still need to cover well back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news, Sean. The main venue for the Brisbane twenty thirty two Olympic and Paralympic Games will be built in the cities Inner North at Victoria Park. Now this is overturning promises not to build a new stadium for the Games.
The decision to build the sixty thousand seat stadium in current green space comes more than three and a half years after the city was awarded hosting rights and after two independent reviews. Now two former Layman premiers and A Station Palaje and Steven Miles had committed to not building this stadium. Effectively, Brisbane Cricket Ground was going to get it. However, current Premier David chris A fully has adopted a recommendation from the independent Infrastructure in Coordination Authority build a new stadium about three point seven billion dollars. You could imagine the political fallout from this one. Mind you, we live in a city that had an Olympic stadium built quite a few years ago. There was a lot of criticism about it. One of the best things that ever happened to Sydney.
Got to say, though, would have been quite spectacular for the Gabba to be the centerpiece.
Right, it would have been. It would have been.
That's true anyway, a lot of money still a lot of money, Sean Michael, You know how I love companies that tell you exactly what they do just in their name.
Yes, yes, yes.
This next story involves two separate companies and both of them just tell you to straight up right ASX listed gold Road Resources. Do you want to guess what they do? It's probably something, probably something to do with gold Right has rejected a three point three billion dollar takeover bid from South African based gold Fields. Wow, no mystery there, saying the offer is too low and Shawn extremely hostile.
The only problem with these names is that so similar it gets a bit confusing. Good point, gold Fields wants to buy gold Road to take full control over their gray Year gold mine joint venture in Western Australia. It's about a thousand kilometers northeast of Perth. That one. Gold Road has said no and wants to buy gold Fields out of that jv. Starting to get confusing already, gold Road CEO Duncan Gibbs said, it's very surprising that gold Fields, the South African group has gone down a hostile path. Point is they're in a joint venture together. There's past to be friends. They're not taking each other over. Now. This is all happening as Northern Star, which is the largest local gold miner, bids five billion dollars for de Gray mining, another gold miner. What gets a bit complicating here though, gold Road. The ASEX company owns seventeen percent of Degray, So if gold Fields buys gold Road, what's that means for Northern Stars bid for de Gray? So confusing? Gold prices arebout fifteen percent this year to record levels. Gold Rose share price jumped sixteen percent yesterday.
I take back everything I said, I reckon that is probably up there as the most confusing story we have done this year, just purely because of the names.
Only other names, Yeah, Sewan.
Whether or not the Trump administration classifies the ten percent GST the Goods and Services taxes a trade barrier will be a decisive factor in whether Australia wins an exemption from reciprocal tariffs next week.
The US President Donald Trump says his tariff roll out next week will focus on so called reciprocal duties, whereby countries are hit with individually tailored taxes that reflect the tariffs and other trade barriers placed on American products. While the President said that his nation was and I quote ripped off by every country quote he did signal some trading partners will receive exemptions and reductions. Trump flagged that tariffs on industries such as automobiles and pharmaceuticals would come at a later date. Now, that puts one point six billion dollars of annual pharmaceutical experts from Australia to the US by groups like CSL in the firing line, certainly. But the number of this story is is the GST going to be classified as a trade barrier in Donald Trump's size?
I mean it applies to as many Australian goods as it does too imported goods or goods made elsewhere, So is it would it be a trade barrier?
You can make the argument to Donald Trump, Michael, there's nothing rational about what's going on at the moment.
That's a very good point. Now, the comments from Donald Trump on tariff's certainly helped Wall Street rally, which in turn, Jean pushed the local market hire yesterday as well.
It sure did. The SMPA six two hundred closed up just as two seven, nine hundred and forty three points. The tech stocks and healthcare companies were among the best performers, while the banks were mixed. James Hardy's Industries finished down another five percent after it's fifteen percent drop on Monday. Investors are punishing that stock on fears that it's fourteen billion dollar offer the US building materials company Azek is too high. Another interesting one yesterday, MPOL said that the cost of ex tropical cyclone Alfred on its facilities will be about thirty five million dollars, quite the repair bill.
Indeed, Sean Quantis has revealed a bunch of new features on it soon to arrive Airbus A three to twenty one XLR planes, including extra toilets and a whole lot more overhead storage space.
The aircraft are in the final stages of production at the Airbus factory in Hamburg. The airline has twenty one A three twenty one planes, so I'll say that again. The airline has twenty eight A three twenty one planes on order, with the first tour rift by June seven, to be flying by the end of next year. Alongside quantuses existing Bowing seven three seven eight hundreds, these planes have capacity for one hundred and ninety seven passengers, twenty three more than the seven three sevens. Very exciting years. Quantus will add an extra loop on the XLR. That means four in total, three for economy, one for business class. According to reporting The Australian also super sized overhead compartments. Now there is a lot of stress getting on a plane when you're late because you can never find somewhere to put your carry on. So hopefully that'll be taken care of.
Sewn. That feels like it applies more to you than it would to me. I am usually you'd always be on time, the first to board, a very paranoid waiting at the gate.
Yeah. Well, these xlrs are able to fly three thousand kilometers further than the seven to three sevens thanks to a central re fuel tank, plus lower emissions and lower fuel burn. Quantus plans to use the aircraft on domestic services and international flights, did destinations such as Balley, New Zealand and maybe even Malaysia.
I'm going to put this out there into the universe, sewn in the hope that one day it does in fact happen. I think one of the greatest media junkets of all time is when Quantas, for instance, flies journalists to say Hamburg to inspect these aircraft in the final stages of production. One day. Fear and greed included in that media junket, and we will record fear and greed from on board one of the Airbus A three twenty ones or similar aircraft were not particularly picky, but God, that would be a dream come true.
That is shameful, Michael, it's shameful.
I'm comfortable with that. Turning to international news, Sean, this is an extraordinary story. Top US officials, including the Vice president and Defense Secretary, accidentally shared classified details about last week's military strikes on Yemen with a journalist in an unofficial messaging group.
Pretty stunning, incredible. So, Vice President Jade Vance and Peter Hexeth were among the members of a signal chat group that discussed operational details of the most significant military action taken by President Donald Trump since he returned to the White House. The conversation not only did it talk about that military action on Yemen, it also blasted European allies, said they were free loading off the US. Problem was one of the members of this chat group was a guy called Jeffrey Goldberg, editor in chief of the Atlantic magazine. Now apparently he was added to the chat by National Security Advisor Mike Watz An account of the messages, which expressed disdain for European allies and suggested asking them to pay for the Yemen operation, was published by the Atlantic on Monday. According to Goldberg, Vance suggested the threat from the Huthis was more of a European issue. It's only a small fraction of US trade ran through the Suez Canal. Jd Vance express concern that the US attack was a mistake that risk a spike in oil prices while bailing Europe out. A number of members of the group suggested Europe could be asked to compensate the US for the strikes. The fact that a journalist was part of this conversation is quite stunning.
Yeah, Sean, it is an incredible story that one. There's a bit going on in global markets, with Wall Street rising overnight on the back of hopes that Donald Trump's tariffs won't be as ferocious as first feared.
That helped text stocks, particularly ev maker Tesla. We've been talking about how much that's been sold off. Well at jumped twelve percent yesterday morning. Iron Or is also up, retaking one hundred and two US dollars a ton. Copper pushed above ten thousand US dollars a ton. It's close from all time high bitcoin eighty six, five hundred US dolls a unit. I said, oh I look, I'd love to say that's back in. You know, that is in that crowd appreciating it's not worth just under sixty three US cents.
What a note to finish on. Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview with our resident economist Stephen Koukoulas Fear and Greed's budget analysis. Definitely the listeners coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au, which is where you sign up for our newsletter which comes out in just a few hours time. So make sure you jump onto that one right away. Thank you very much, Sean.
Thank you, Michael.
It is Wednesday, the twenty sixth of March twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.