Canberra pushes legislation; ASX hits new high; price of a cup of coffee set to rise

Published Nov 25, 2024, 5:00 PM

Tuesday 26 November 2024

Federal parliament is in its final week of the year, and possibly of this government, with a rush to push through legislation from social media bans to new housing policies. 

And more, including:

  • The ASX, and the Commonwealth Bank, hit new records 

  • PE group Pacific Equity Partners makes a $1.2 billion bid for SG Fleet Group

  • Why the price of a cup of coffee is set to soar

Plus don’t miss the new episode of The Property Pendulum, brought to you by Domain and Fear & Greed. This week’s episode: how spring selling season has fared, and how buyers can make the most of it. Get it from APPLE, SPOTIFY, or anywhere you listen to podcasts.

Federal Parliament is in its final week of the year and possibly of this government, with a rush to push through legislation from social media bands to new housing policies, the ASX and the Commonwealth Bank hit new records, and why the price of a cup of coffee is set to sew all out and plenty more. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people who make their own decisions. It is Tuesday, the twenty sixth of November twenty twenty four. Are Michael Thompson and Good Morning, Sean Aylmer.

Good morning Michael, Sean.

The main story this morning. It is a very very busy final week of the sitting year for Federal Parliament, with the bill to ban social media for under sixteen year old really front and center amid though seventy six unpassed bill, so there's a bit to get through.

They will be busy.

Prime Minister Anthony Albernizi was talking about the social media ban yesterday. He said world leaders at G twenty, which was out last week, said that they're watching Australia's efforts to limit online platforms for under sixteen year olds. He hopes the bill, which has bipartisan support passes this week. There was a very hastily convened to Parliamentary Committee meeting on it yesterday. What came out was that not everyone agrees with the idea, including groups like youth mental health organizations, so that certainly worth listening to those people. No one seems to be sure how it will work, and they all agree that it is being rushed through. Labour's also made a final push for other parties to support its help to buy housing policy. It's going to hit the Senate today. This will see the Government co purchase homes with about forty thousand first home buyers. Now it is likely to fail and provide a trigger for a double dissolution election. The other part of the housing platform is the Buil to Rent legislation. It's also being introduced this week. Provides new tax and centives for investors. Both pieces of legislation helped to buy and built to rent where election promises. Both are likely to fail. Resources Minister Maddal and King yesterday urged the Opposition, Greens and Cross benches to support tax cut incentives for net zero industries. The legislation is for production tax credits Titling thirteen point seven billion dollars. Opposition leader Peter Dutton has previously called this one corporate welfare for billionaires. There will be some good news for the government, though Michael is likely to get through new legislation on aged care and political donations. It also may pass a bill for free free tafe. However, I don't think it's going to get through that seventy six unpassed bill backlog.

You've covered a lot of federal politics in your time, Sean, Yes, How does a government and this is fairly consistent, right, there's always like this last this mad rush right at the end. How do they get kind of so much trying to jam it all into one where it's got all the hallmarks, right of a student who's kind of left their assignments and everything's right till the very last minute. How do we kind of get into this position? Is it just bad time management through the rest of the year.

Look, I mean a lot of it is deliberate. There is a bunch of bills that come through and good ideas, not time to debate them. No one really thinks they're going to pass a bunch of these bills. Things like the social media bands an interesting one because you have bipartisan support, so obviously that's going to go through. Though yesterday we saw this sort of group saying let's not rush this one, and then other things like the housing legislation, they're just never going to make it, and they're just political points. Allows for a double dissolution election, you know, if we go. So maybe it's a little bit last minute rush. I think there is something in that, but a lot of it is politicking as well.

Michael, Okay, So really they don't just necessarily all sides don't just have our kind of best interest necessarily at heart here. Oh Michael, please, I'm such an idealist here. Sure, you are such an idealist, but really a kind of a way from legislation, the government is kind of feeling the heat at the moment on everything from the cost of living crisis through to international diplomacy.

So polling hasn't been that good for the government given the mandate it got almost three years ago, two and a half years ago. It's surprising, and I know within the Labor Party it's a bit of a surprise how poorly they are polling at this point. It's quite possible that this will be the final sitting week of this parliament. We could end up with an election early next year. We do need an election by the middle of May next year. Now there will be a budget update next month. I suppose the cost of living crisis is the thing that is hurting the government most. According to the polls, the government would love to see a rate cut by May next year. That is now considered highly unlikely. Other issues are plenty. The big one at the moment this is what's happening with International Criminal Court issuing arrest warrants for is including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Foreign Minister Penny Wong yesterday in indicated that he would be arrested if he came to Australia. Now this is quite a stout. The US has just totally disagreed with International Criminal Court. Others like Ireland and the Netherlands have basically said yet he will be arrested. We haven't quite said that or indicated that he will. Another interesting one running around at the moment is the idea of banning gambling advertising. Independent MP David Pocock, a Senator from Cambery, yesterday said Labor is gutless for not progressing with a ban on gambling advertising, having previously said they'll put forward a proposal by the end of this year.

A lot of politics to kick us off there today, Sean, let's move to markets. Shall we another day? Another record for the local share market, with the s and PA Sex two hundred hitting a new intra day high and a closing high as well. Finally cracked that eighty four hundred mark for the Moose.

Sure did so.

The record high was hit late yesterday morning four hundred and fifty eight point nine points. By the end of the day, the market was up zero point three percent to eighty four hundred and seventeen points. As you said, a new closing high. The interest rate sensitive sectors did best, the red of stain investment trusts, healthcare and consumer discretionary. That was on the back of stuff out of Wall Street. We'll mention that in a moment, and all prices pushed up, the big miners higher, and energy prices pushed up. Weill in gas stocks, the bank stocks. By the end of the day they're actually lower. And that's after the regulator, the Australian Prdential Regulation Authority came out and said it would maintain mortgage lending buffers. It's worried about high debt levels, cost of living pressures, and a pickup in credit growth. Basically, that's all about how much people need to be able to repay when going for a home loans. Homelands at seven percent, you're going to be able to repay ten percent three percents of home loan. Going to keep with that bank centered down, but not before come off. Bank once again did what it's been doing NonStop, hitting a new record high. So on opening yesterday hit one hundred and sixty dollars and twenty seven cents a share, first time above one hundred six. I said one dollar sixty. It's one hundred and sixty dollars and twenty seven cents this year.

Isn't it quite extraordinary where it's hat at the moment, considering kind of what it was at one hundred and forty and one hundred and thirty dollars, there were plenty of analysts saying now it's too expensive, too expensive, and it just keeps going.

It's too expensive to get to one hundred bucks. Yeah, it's phenomenous. Total rerating. So sometimes in CSL has had a de rating, whereas people thought it was the best thing ever. In the last twelve months, it's really fallen and it sort of been derated. Co Bank's been rerated, so you know where it sits in the kind of spectrum it's gone up the did you go up the spectrum? The name further up the tree?

I don't know.

My mixed metaphor is ridiculous. But people think it's fundamentally worth more than what they fundelment when they thought it was fundamentally worth twelve months ago.

Okay, So it's essentially a reset. It's a reset of what they believe and understand that the stocks would be worth.

Yeah, yeah, hopefully couple another quick one. Run's payments and data infrastructure group Cascoll hit the market yesterday. Initially came on at two bucks fifty ended about two bucks thirty five or something or other, so it was down a bit and pro Medicus came out. It had its AGM yesterday. Best performing large cap this year wasn't It was only mid cap by the end of this year. It's now a large cap because it has done so well considering a share split, so retail investors can still buy in.

And quickly sean. Global markets are fixated at the moment on Donald Trump's nomination of hedge fund founder Scott Besant as Treasury Secretary a big.

Part of the reason why our local share market did so well yesterday. They're fixated on him kind of for good reasons, though he actually understands the job people think, which says a lot about some of the other nominations. Sixty two year old has been publicly supportive of tariffs, but he's also suggested the threats by Donald Trump on tariffs or a negotiating strategy aimed at extracting concessions. In fact, he told The Financial Times about a month ago that he thought Donald Trumps a free trader that kind of took pressure off mark interest rates and the US dollars. That's why some of those the interest rates sensitive stocks in Australia did well yesterday. Otherwise, Bitcoin hasn't quite hit one hundred thousand US dollars a unit and the Aussie dollars buying just over sixty five US since.

A very quick mention of our interview coming up after the show today, something completely different today, Sean, we have a special guest appearance by Tim Minchin, who is basically kind of an extraordinary Australian export in terms of singer songwriter author. He writes a lot of music and things for shows, stage shows like Matilda. He's got another one for Groundhog Day. At the moment absolutely just going nuts, particularly overseas. He is a huge success. But he's talking to Adam Lang our Fear and Greed colleague today about OZ Music T Shirt Day which is coming up on Thursday, basically about why it's important to help kind of grass roots music in Australia and musicians and people in Australia who are struggling a bit at the moment. It is a great conversation. It's something a bit different, isn't it.

Sorry, I'm looking forward to it.

Yeah, it'll be a good one. It's coming up after the show. We'll be back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news.

Sewn.

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Miles is being sued by his chief of staff, Joe Tanofsky under the Fair Work Act, claiming adverse action in the form of victimization.

Via her lawyer Michael Bradley, Miss Tanovsky claims she raised concerns of bullying from senior members of staff with mister Miles and her treatment as a result of that was adverse action, which is unlawful. In a statement, she said six weeks ago, I spoke out publicly to reveal what was happening to me behind closed doors. As far as I know, there has been no investigation into the behaviors are reported or regarding the actions taken by the Deputy Prime Minister against me. Not a single member of the government has reached out to check on my well being. Three weeks ago, I wrote a letter to the Prime Minister asking him to intervene and hold the Deputy Prime Minister to account for the way I had been treated. The Prime Minister has not responded. She said the government needs to learn from her experience. Miss Taranovsky is still employed as Miles's chief staff, but is on miscellaneous leave.

Private equity group Pacific Equity Partners has made a bid for SG Fleet Group, sending its share price up more than twenty percent.

The one point two billion dollar bid that provides an exit for the majority shareholder, South African based Supergroup, it has about fifty three percent of the company. Yesterday, the board said it's in the best interests to engage with PEP Pacific equity partners and granted them exclusive due diligence. A binding offer is expected some point after this week.

I love this next story, Sean. This is a cracker and New Zealand is about to retro fit its wide body planes, adding more premium economy and business class seats. It is such a big job to go and kind of just and basically gut these aircraft and just do it all over again. That's fascinating.

So we're talking about Dreamline is here and it decreases the capacity but adds about thirty percent more non economy seats. And at the moment, Quantas has done this and done really well out of it. It's a bit of a hedge against weak domestic and corporate travel markets going more up market in a New Zealand's case, it also hops hopes to boost cargo exports to help the bottom line. And New Zealand, which is listed in New Zealand and here on the A six, looks like it will finally turn a profit in the current six months. It's had a bit of a shocker. It was up two percent yesterday, but it's down more than fifteen percent this year compared that to Quantus. It's up sixty seven percent this year, trading near record levels.

Southern Crossostereo held its annual general meeting yesterday and investors to give it a first strike against executive pay.

It's a tough market and Southern Cross Austraio is down forty three percent this year. That's a very tough market. It's the group with triple M hit radio networks as well as Listener app and a network of regional TV stations. Now a bunch of its big shareholders voted against the remuneration report. One of those big shareholders is ARN Media, who last year tried to buy Scaarn includes Kiss FM and Pure Gold SCA. Southern Cross said it's inactive negotiations to offload its TV stations. It has nearly one hundred of them. Chair John Kelly said going forward for SCA, it's all about audio.

Thousands of New South Wales, so I get excited as soon as anyone talks about audio.

We love audio on this show.

Yeah, because audio is the future, right, That's what we also see here. Thousands of New South Wales homes and businesses are facing the threat of rolling blackouts tomorrow. The back of unexpected outage is at coal power units, along with of course very hot weather.

Yeah.

Initially the Australian Energy Market Operator said that one point seven three gigawa's could be lost by mid afternoon tomorrow. That's enough energy to power about one and a half million homes. Later it cut that to about twenty percent of that level, still three hundred thousand homes. It's the biggest test for the state since the closure of Ageal Energy's a Liddell coal power station in April last year. According to the fin Review, there are disruptions or out just all across the East Coast or down the East Coast. I suppose AGL Energy's Bayswater Generator in the Hunter Valley for example. Origin energies are Ring Plant, Delta's at VAL's Point station in New South Wales and Agel's loy Yang power station in Victoria. There's also other units down for planned maintenance. Just a bunch of events that are coming together whilst this really hot weather's happening.

Mentioned this next one on the top of the sh shawn bad news for coffee drinkers. Prices are soaring on the back of expected poor crops in Vietnam and Brazil, and.

They're the biggest coffee producers. Now we've spoken a bit about coffee on this shade. It's like, I reckon, it's one of our favorite commodities.

Would you agree with this? Yeah?

Up there with orange juice.

Yeah, well no we're no no, no, no.

Coffee is way in front.

Of it is much much much better. But in terms of interesting commodities to talk about, I would say orange juice is up there too, right, really sorry? Just go on?

Just how many caps of coffee?

Do you know? How many caps of coffee is consumed every day globally?

I'm going to round it up and say a lot.

Yeah, two million according to the British Coffee Association, mind you two millions?

On that many?

Maybe that's only that that must just be in Britain.

I might have to go into it and that must have been Britain. Yeah, yeah.

The biggest drinkers are actually the Dutch and the Finish.

There you go.

I would have thought it would be Okay, this is at risk of stereotyping here, but I would have thought it would be the Italians. Yeah, And where does Australia fit in this? This is this is just all an outrage, This whole story.

Anyway, So production last season was one hundred and sixty four million, sixty kilo bags, So you talk about one hundred and sixty four million bags, that's how you measure it. But there's sixty kilo bags, so that's a lot of coffee. Yes, Arabic of futures are now at a thirteen year high, so you have sort of robuster, isn't it an Arabic are the two main types? Sixty percent. Arabic is up six percent this year. That's what most Australians drink Arabica coffee. Now some of the big buyers like Nesle have worn that it's going to up prices. The reason for all this is unfavorable weather in Brazil, but also people now consuming drinks that require more coffee. So you know, I forget the single shot flat wide. People are going the double shot with this, that and the other. And so the actual demand is how much higher because the cups of coffee I've got more caffeine in them?

There you go?

Anyway, Dan News, We're going to pay more for it soon because the price of the raw material coffee beans has gone through the roof.

Do you know how much is consumed in Italy.

You've obviously been googling.

I have.

I was listening with one ear and googling with the other. On average, Italian drink four coffees a day, and what they will typically do is have kind of smaller quantities. So I mean, you're not having kind of like two hundred meals of milk with it. You're just having kind of you like your espresso shot essentially. Right there you go, fascinating fact, right, that is.

Totally fascinating fact.

In just thought i'd share that with you. Turning to international news now, a senior Russian general has been sacked for faking reports of battlefield successes in Ukraine. This is according to Russian media and war bloggers.

So Colonel General jenity A Nashkin was the commander of the Russian Army's Southern Group, which had been fighting around Seversk in eastern Ukraine. A prominent pro Kremlin telegram channel called Raibar Roybar is saying that as well as produced as well as providing inaccurate reports, and n Ashkin has thrown poorly prepared and ill equipped units into battle, unnecessarily killing hundreds of men for little apparent tactical gain. According to the Telegraph of London. Neither the Kremlin nor the Russian Army has officially confirmed the sacking, although Russian state outlet RBK reported that a source in the Russian Ministry of Defense acknowledged and Nashkin's dismissal, but claimed it was due to a planned rotation.

Last one shown. The Times of Israel has reported that Israel has agreed in principle to a US backed ceasefire with Hesbelah in what would have to be a major breakthrough in the war.

The newspaper cited multiple reports of high level consultations involving Prime Minister Benjamin net and Yahoo. It came after Israel was hit by rocket fire from Lebanon and the Israeli Air Force carried out multiple strikes on hezblast sites in Beirut. The proposed ceasefire aims to restore UN Security Council Resolution seventeen oh one, which ended the two thousand and six heads Blow Israel war. It would require HESBLA to pull its hiders back about thirty kilometers from the Israeli border and the Lebanese Army to deploy in the buffer zone. According to the finn Review.

All Right Up Next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. Our guest today is Australian entertainer Tim Minchin. That's coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot a you, which is also where you can sign up for our free weekly newsletter out tomorrow.

Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael.

It is Tuesday, the twenty sixth of November twenty twenty four. Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. Oh Michael Thompson, And that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.