Monday 24 March 2025
The federal government set to hand down a budget with deficits for many years, and cost-of-living handouts for now.
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Today on Fear and Greed. The federal government set to hand down a federal budget with deficits for many years and cost of living handouts for now. Australians are heading overseas in record numbers, and Health Minister Mark Butler is worried that private health companies are price gouging members. Plus changes to the ASX from today, and a record valuation for a US basketball team. Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people who make their own decisions. It is Monday, the twenty fourth of March twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
Good morning, Michael.
Sean, the main story this morning. It is a big, big week. The federal government will hand down a budget tomorrow night, with deficits expected now for the foreseeable future, potentially a better economic outlook, and spending initiatives very likely to be aimed at winning an election right?
You are right, Michael, It is a very big week. Not only do we get a budget, but by Sunday night, well we could well have an election as well. What that means is that the budget tomorrow night is definitely not going to include too many nasties. Many of the government spending initiatives have already been announced, such as the lowering of the out of pocket expenses for pharmaceuticals. Over the weekend, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said he'll extend the energy rebate instituted last year until the end of this year to help with cost of living pressures. Seventy five dollars off everyone's energy bill every quarter. So we know some of the goodies and we don't expect too many baddies.
Obviously, we've got the cost of living relief by the pharmaceutical and energy bill promises. We have talked about that a bit already. What else do we know, Sean?
Well, economists think the budget deficit for this financial year will come in around twenty to twenty five billion dollars. That compares to twenty seven billion dollars forecast late last year. Over four years, it's likely to come in around that one hundred and forty billion dollar mark. Treasure Jim Chalmers yesterday said the budget would outline a reduction in net overseas migration. There will also be a reforecast of economic figures. Headline inflation later this year will be forecast to be much lower. I'm sure Jim Chalmers will make thing of that, but that's on the back of the extension of the energy rebate. The more important figure, underlying inflation is actually forecast or likely to be forecast, to be a touch higher.
I want to ask you a bit more about the budget, but a quick mention first of Fear and Greed The Week Ahead which comes up after the show today and it features our resident economist Stephen Koukoulas as always, but a very important time to be talking to Stephen for his view of what we can expect from the budget.
Yeah, it's a great chat with Stephen. He has worked in Treasury in his early days. He knows budgets inside out. It's great to get his take on what he expects tomorrow night.
Absolutely, and then tomorrow night for Wednesday morning, we will have in depth budget analysis with Stephen as well. Politically, Sean, is having a budget a good thing for the government?
Probably not. I mean, remember this budget...
So firm on that one, Sean.
Yeah, I mean this budget wasn't supposed to happen. We were supposed to be in week three of the election campaign by now, but ex-cyclone Alfred had something to say about that. The thing about the budget, it means that Opposition leader Peter Dutton gets a national audience with his budget reply speech on Thursday night. I'm sure Anthony Albanese would have been quite happy for that not to have happened. But given where we are in the electoral cycle, it probably won't make too much of a difference. Perhaps what Donald Trump says about reciprocal tariffs for Australia over the next fortnight and how Anthony Albanese responds might make a bigger difference. I'm not sure, but what we've seen in places like Canada, Mexico, governments who have taken on Donald Trump have actually benefited in the polls. And we do know we've got reciprocal tariffs coming broadly. We don't know what that means for Australia, but that may even be more important to Anthony Albanese than the actual budget.
When you think we've got the budget, we've got all of the normal economic issues right, domestic issues. This is really going to be a rather unique election campaign, though, isn't it, because of the presence of tariff's Donald Trump trade war, and really it's going to be an election campaign where there will be a lot of responding to what's happening globally more so than domestically.
I think so. And I think that probably helps Anthony Albanese more than Peter Dutton because incumbency matters, and so I think when you're at war, and so this is a trade war obviously, but when you're at war, incumbency tends to be beneficial to a party. So it'll just be interesting to see how that plays out.
Yeah, indeed, we've got to get through the budget first though, haven't we. Just before we leave politics, Sean yesterday, the Prime Minister said that he wants to help Australians work from home rather than getting them into the office.
He said it would help people save thousands of dollars on annual transport costs in major cities. He sold it as a cost of living initiative idea. I would say it's more about a play to distinguish himself from Peter Dutton really, who has called on bureaucrats to come back into the office. See. I think Anthony Albanese yesterday talked about everyone, but Peter Dutton has only spoken about public servants. Really, But I'm sure that's the distinction.
Yeah, you're such a cynic Sean. I suspect you're right, though. Local markets, where do they finish up on Friday?
Well, the S&P/ASX200 closed up just to touch on Friday to seven throusand nine hundred and thirty two points. For the week, it rose two percent, nothing to write home about, but the first time it's had a weekly rise in about a month. Futures markets suggest the local bourse will open down half a percent today. That's pretty much all about Wall Street now. Over the weekend, there was plenty of about what's happening with tariffs. Reciprocal tariffs are supposed to kick in next week, hitting a bunch of countries, possibly Australia, but there's really no detail about what the Trump administration is going to do. In fact, on Friday, the presidents that he might show the flexibility. All this uncertainty is not good for markets, and it's hard to see them getting too much momentum when there is so much uncertainty, just.
Staying in markets for a moment Sean. The S&P/ASX200 rebalance will take place today. That's when companies are put in and out of the ASX50, ASX200, and it can make a big difference, can't it, to share prices?
Yes, particularly because passive investors often mirror indices, so they just want to hold the stocks that are in the fifty or one hundred or the two hundred, and as a result, companies that sort of get pushed up end up getting a bit of a tailwind. So in the top fifty, the two companies coming in are Pro Medicus on the back of an absolutely incredible performance over the past twelve months or so, I think's up about one hundred and thirty percent, twenty fourth biggest company on the bourse now worth twenty seven billion dollars. The other one is Sigma Healthcare. Now that's on the back of the Chemist Warehouse deal. It's now the seventeenth largest company, just behind Woolies, bigger than Coles. So when we talk about retailers from now we talk mostly about Coles, Woolies and Wesfarmers. We're going to have to throw Sigma Healthcare in as well. The two moving out of the top fifty Mineral Resources and Ramsey Healthcare.
And after the show, Sean and after The Week Ahead, we have an interview coming up today with Lachlan Halloway from Morningstar.
So we talk about buying the dip in the market and is it a good idea? So Lachlan talks us through that idea and it's not a yes or no answer, it depends on the valuation of the market relative to what they consider fair value. And we actually go through the algebra the mathematics on that. It's a fantastic chat if you want an insight into how professional investors value markets.
Yeah, absolutely. And when you say that, we kind of go through the maths. Lachlan does this in such a simple and understandable way. It is great because this is a company that focuses on kind of talking to investors about whether a company is overvalued or undervalued or fair value and how they calculate that is really, really fascinating. And he gives a few stocks as well. So that's coming up later on. Sean will be back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news.
Sean, Health Minister Mark Butler is seeking advice as to whether private health insurers are price gouging members after hitting top tier policyholders with premium increases of up to nine percent.
This one is very close to home because I got an email only in the last week from my healthcare provider, my premium family package going up nine percent. Oh, that's a big jump. Major funds including BUPA, Medibank, HCF and NIB have written to policyholders over the past fortnite advising them of premium hikes ranging from seven percent to nine point four percent on the Gold and Silver policies from April one. That's well above the three point seven percent industry average approved by Minister Butler last month. Now, the AFR is reporting that while insurers are allowed to increase annual premiums more than the average, because some policies rise more than others, Butler has asked the Health Department to advise him if insurers were price gouging customers following the latest premium round. It is particularly relevant at the moment, of course, because the ALP has put healthcare at the center of its election campaign.
Indeed. Now, Sean, another one probably that is close to home for you. Australians are taking overseas trips in record numbers, with short offshore travel hitting a new record.
One point six million short term trips were recorded in January, about eleven percent more than a year earlier. Also, about eleven percent higher than pre COVID levels. New Zealand most popular country about thirteen percent of travel. Next Indonesia, and then Michael pop quiz. So, Indonesia's Bali. New Zealand's always been popular. Think of where everyone seemed to go in the heat of our summer,
Oh, Japan. Yeah, because the exchange rate was so good.
Exactly right, and everyone seemed to go skiing. There you go.
Well, so I'm sorry, I was just waiting because I know that you are toying with the idea of a Japan trip in January of next year, and as actually so I really can't kind of criticize you for being too motivated by self interest here.
One cohort that still hasn't fully recovered from COVID, notwithstanding the headlines, is international students. In January eighty one thousand international students arrived. That's about two and a half percent lower than a year earlier, but it's still ten percent lower than January twenty nineteen, which is the best comparable figure. So we talk a lot about too many overseas students, and people argue there's too many overseas students. In actual fact, there's actually fewer now than pre covid.
Sean, Woollie's and Cole's share price surged on Friday after an ACCC report found that the two supermarket giants are among the most profitable in the world, but there is no clear evidence that they price gouge and their dominance is unlikely to end.
So, this was a report from the competition watchdog which gave something to everyone. They say that Woolies and Coles's margins have risen since the pandemic, and while the cost of groceries has increased significantly relative to the increase in wages, it's actually been lower here than in many comparable countries. The ACCC took a year to look into these supermarkets. The watchdog now recommends the government force the supermarket giants to publish their prices online, provide supplies with detailed information about price and sales forecasts, modify zoning and planning laws so smaller rivals can expand more quickly. And the report was critical of the promotional practices at Woollies and Coles, which its investigation found had made it more difficult for consumers to assess pricing, discounts and value for money, but at the end of the day it came out and on the really big issue of price gouging, and this was the idea. Remember that something might have been selling for six dollars and then went to twelve dollars and then went back to ten dollars and Wollies said, we've discounted it from twelve by two dollars, even though the prices had jumped. They didn't actually find evidence of that, so it really is a win for the supermarkets.
Yeah, it does sound like that. One last quick one before we get to international news. Another soft weekend for auctions across the country.
Yes, the early clearance rate came in at sixty eight point seven percent. It's been trending down now for three or four weeks. And the other interesting fact I thought over the weekend, Melbourne is now outperforming Sydney. So we've seen that in terms of clear and straits. We're also seeing in terms of prices.
All right, turning out to international news, International car makers are rushing to ship vehicles and core components to the US to get ahead of the next round of President Donald Trump's tariffs, which threatened to wreak havoc on automotive supply chains.
It's incredible how quickly business has responded to these threats. In February, there was a twenty two percent year on year rise in vehicle shipments from the EU to the US, fourteen percent from Japan. In response to requests from auto manufacturers, car carrying vessels have been dispatched to Asia and Europe plans to carry thousands more vehicles, according to the Financial Times. Donald Trump said that reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners will come to effect on April two. They need to get the cars into play by then. Now. South Korean carmakers Hyundai and Kia are among those ship more vehicles before that deadline. An official of the German car makers shipping more vehicles from Europe to the US to address the tariff threat. It's quite remarkable how much what Donald Trump has said has shifted large companies. But it's also remarkable how quickly they can move to get stuff done.
Yeah. Absolutely. This next one is absolutely incredible. I find this staggering show. And a consortium led by private equity investors has agreed to take a majority stake in the Boston Celtics basketball franchise at a valuation of US six point one billion dollars, making it the most expensive US sporting team ever sold.
So it's about just shy of ten billion Aussie. The deal tops the six point o five billion valuation paid in twenty twenty three for the Washington Commander's franchise in the National Football League, according to the FT. Now, the Celtics are one of the best known brands in sport. The team's won a record breaking eighteen NBA championships. It's ahead of its longtime rival, the Los Angeles Lakers. William Chisholm, who's the co founder of private equity firm STG and buyer of the team, has described himself as a diehard Celtics fan. Six billion dollars definitely diehard. Sixth Street private equity firm led by former Goldman Sachs partner Alan Waxman, is among the members of the Chisholm consortium. Sixth Street is already an investor in rival NBA franchise San Antonio Spurs, last week agreed to buy into the San Francisco Giants baseball team. It's also invested in Spanish football SC Barcelona. This is broadcast rights and has a partnership with rivals Real Madrid. Clearly a big time investor in sport.
Yeah, they've clearly spotted on an opportunity there or something maybe. Now, Sean, up next is Fear and Greed, The Week Ahead featuring Stephen Koukoulas. Massive week with the budget of course, and then following that the Daily Interview today with Lachlan Halloway from Morningstar. Plenty of good listening coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed.com.au And don't forget to sign up for the free Fear and Greed newsletter at our website too. Thank you very much, Sean.
Thank you, Michael.
It's Monday, the twenty fourth of March twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x, TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.