Bitcoin surge leads markets higher, Trump and Musk face off, French cognac crisis

Published Nov 24, 2024, 5:00 PM

Monday 25 November 2024

Global markets including Bitcoin surge despite geopolitical tensions heating up. 

And more, including:

  • Wisetech Global boss Richard White faces angry shareholders 

  • The first stand-off between Donald Trump and Elon Musk

  • Plus more on how much employers pay workers, and why French cognac workers have walked off the job

Plus don’t miss the new episode of The Property Pendulum, brought to you by Domain and Fear & Greed. This week’s episode: how spring selling season has fared, and how buyers can make the most of it. Get it from APPLE, SPOTIFY, or anywhere you listen to podcasts.

Today on Fear and Greed. Global markets, including bitcoin surge despite geopolitical tensions heating up, Wise Tech global boss Richard White faces angry shareholders, and my French Cognac workers have walked off the job. Plus more on how much employers pay workers and the first standoff between Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Welcome to Fear and Greed, daily business news for people who make their own decisions. It is Monday, the twenty fifth of November twenty twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Adam Lange.

Good morning, Michael, Adam.

The main story this morning. Rising tensions in the Middle East and in Europe have failed to quell a surge in global markets, with Wall Street, the ASX, cryptocurrencies and the gold price all at or pretty close two record levels.

Yeah, Michael. Geopolitical tensions have certainly been on the rise. NATO is reportedly set to hold an emergency meeting tomorrow with Ukrainian Brussels after Russia used a new experimental missile in the conflict. Now that missile, Michael, known as Oorshnik, traveled at over eleven times the speed of sound, or more than thirteen thousand kilometers per hour before hitting targets in a Ukrainian city. That strike followed Ukraine's use of US made long range missiles for the first time, allowing them to hit targets deeper into Russia. Ukraine also used UK made storm shadow missiles inside Russian territory for the first time. And all of this, Michael who's happening as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to threaten nuclear retaliation.

Thirteen thousand kilometers per hour?

Staggering, isn't it? Yeah?

Truly frightening kind of developments in this and in the other main theater of war at the moment Adam. Israel conducted more strikes on Lebanon's Capital Bay route over the weekend, the latest in that conflict, and late last week we had the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanya, who calling him a war criminal. The warrant actually obliges the Australian government to arrest Netna who should he set foot in Australia.

Yeah, Michael on. Alongside that, markets and particularly equity markets, continue to surge. Wall Street has just about completed its third quarter earning season, and more than seventy five percent of companies beat their expectations. Earnings growth is running at a very strong eight point seven percent. That's a good number. The major indices on Wall Street are now trading at near record levels. Over the weekend, Bitcoin hit yet another record high, just below US ninety nine five hundred, on the back of a growing belief the regulations for cryptocurrencies in the US will be relatively mild in a Trump administration. Gold jumped five percent last week and his back up near record levels too.

That crypto level, that bitcoin level, Yeah, it is flirting with the one hundred thousand dollar mark, isn't it? Like it is just it just keeps on getting close, and it's it's I mean, there's a lot of speculation that it may happen quite soon. It would be quite the milestone to pass.

Yeah, it look it feels like it, Michael, even just for the sensationalism of hitting the target. But it's such a risk knowing which way the legislative environment's going to go in the US, because all of this is speculation predicated on that. Well.

Interestingly, we have an interview coming up after the show today with Rachel Conlin from Binance, which is the biggest crypto exchange in the world, and Rachel was actually in Australia over the weekend for the Australian Crypto Convention, which is the biggest crypto convention in the Southern Hemisphere. And in this conversation between Sean and Rachel, Rachel talks about kind of the importance of regulation, of kind of knowing what is happening within the industry and the fact that that gives a little bit more at certainty obviously for investors, and also kind of helps to alleviate some concerns of investors who are unsure, investors who might be traditional or more conservative, and really how one of the big challenges for crypto at the moment is education, trying to make sure that people understand this thing, because really it is not going away.

No it's not, Michael, And look, I confess I need quite a bit of education when it comes to crypto. So I might be paying attention very closely to that interview.

You certainly should, because it's a great conversation coming up after the show. Now we mentioned the local share market. It hit a new record high on Friday, again led by none other than the Commonwealth Bank.

Yeah, Michael, Commonwealth Bank keeps giving to investors, closing at a record high on Friday of one hundred and fifty nine dollars and three cents. It is up more than fifty percent over the last year. The S and P ASX two hundred came within a whisker of finishing above eighty four hundred points for the first time ever, and it slipped below that mark in the final few minutes of trade to close it eighty three hundred and ninety four points. It is up an incredible twenty percent in the last year. The story is unchanged. The banks and tech stocks keep surging. Even big miners did ok last week from a rebound in iron ore prices. It was so close to getting past the eight tantalized market, and it looked like it was going to It was like ten to four or so on Friday afternoon. We were watching the o'clock because I was doing the afternoon report on Friday afternoon, and.

I'm like, yes, yes, come on, and then it didn't. I'm like, oh, oh, okay, all right, damn close. Anyway, Adam, we've talked about technology obviously being the best performing sector all year. It wasn't such a good day. On Friday though, for the tech leader. Wise Tech's share price fell twelve point four percent after billionaire founder Richard White fronted the company's virtual AGM. It was a virtual one, so he wasn't there in person for this, saying that he deeply regretted the impact that recent media attention has had on people around him and of course on shareholders.

Yeah, those comments, Smichael came as Weisstech downgraded its annual revenue guidance, sending its share price down close to sixteen percent at one point on Friday. Chair and Richard Damery partially blamed the downgrade on the diversion of founder Richard White's attention in the lead up to his exit from the company, and he said, quote, I need to say that the board is disappointed that the diversion of Richard White's attention away from product development at a critical juncture has impacted the timing of the release of some of the three breakthrough products. End of quote. Mister White resigned from wis Tech's executive and board in late October, and that was following a string of allegations about his personal life. He has moved into a consulting role, still reporting to the board with the title of founder and founding CEO. He will maintain his one million dollar a year salary.

All right, Adam, we have got a lot still to cover. We've got policy, We've got that story about Elon Musk and Donald Trump. We've got petrol prices and auctions and everything. I don't know why I'm teasing. You're not going anywhere. You're stuck in the studio with me. But we will take a very quick break and come back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news. Adam Labor has scrapped its plans to crack down on misinformation after failing to get enough support in the Senate for its somewhat controversial legislation. The Misinformation Legislation aimed to give authorities the power to force tech giants to act on alerts about incorrect information and really try and stop them from spreading.

Yeah, that's right, Michael. The Coalition had already voiced concerns about the bill, and over the weekend the Greens and most of the Senate Crossbench raised their own objections. Yesterday, Communications Minister Michelle Roland announced the government would not proceed with the legislation, saying it's clear that there is no pathway to legislate this proposal through the set It. But there's still plenty on the legislative agenda this week, with the government aiming to get a series of bills through the Senate on housing, school funding and the creation of an Environment Protection Agency.

Just quickly checking auction clearance rates now, Adam and there were two thousand, five hundred and eighty eight auctions held last week. That was down from twenty nine hundred or thereabouts the week before Spring selling season is continuing, it's really not. It's not winding down that much yet.

No, and that's still a lot of auctions. And there was a bit of a spike in preliminary clearance rates across most capital cities over the weekend. Sydney came in at almost seventy two percent. That's put up pretty sharply on the previous week, which had been a shocker. Melbourne was up to from about sixty five to over sixty eight percent. Brisbane and Adelaide were both pretty consistent with the previous week, and Perth came in at seventy five percent preliminary clearance rate. Although that's off a very small number of auctions in Perth, which is basically their trend.

Yeah, indeed, mention this one at the top of the show, Adam. Total wages and salaries paid by employers pushed beyond one hundred billion dollars for the month of September. That is the first time that remuneration has gone beyond that mark. That's kind of cool.

Yeah, it's a good number, isn't it. During September, employers paid one hundred and three point seven billion and that's according to the Australian Bureau Statistics, up thirteen billion on two years earlier, and that reflects underlying wage growth, variations in hours worked, one of payments like bonuses, back pay, and employment growth. Six industries accounted for about sixty percent of the increase, Michael, So listen to these numbers and see if this feels right to you. Those industries going up, financial and insurance services, what do you reckon? Sound about? Right?

Makes sense?

Retail trade thought that was interesting. Information media and telcos Information media telcos right, So I'd say that there would be some who are doing very well, some perhaps not, and that very affected industry mining, transport and warehousing, and electricity, gas, water and waste services. Immediately after COVID, the accommodation and food services industry experience fastest growing wages, but in September it was actually the slowest, so a lot of movement there.

Gosh, you love going into the detail, don't you.

I like thinking about how it's affecting different people.

Normally you just be able to kind of rattle that off, but do you just like, you know what, let's have a deep dive into some of these stats, and you know what, there will be people listening to this going yes, yes, we love it when Adam's filling in because that detail just gets so detailed. Anyway, cheering on the data, Yeah, yeah, bring on more data. There's never enough data out of oil prices just starting to rise, but fuel prices across the country, with the exception of Perth, are trading at cyclical lows. Did you get out and about over the weekend and check out any of the petrol stations in your area? It is very cheap at the moment.

Yeah, both cars got filled up on the weekend, Michael. According to the ah trib c, petrol prices in Sydney are around Low's last scene a month ago. Same in Melbourne, although the Australian Bureau Statistics Stater suggests prices may even be heading lower. Both Brisbane and Adelaida in the same boat. Generally, over recent months, the lowest prices have been available in Adelaide and the highest in Brisbane. The outlier in Perth, where prices are trading around peaks with an average price close to one dollar ninety five Elter fashion chain.

Lavisa's chairman, Brett Blundy has reassured investors that the retailer is focused on growth after releasing a pretty disappointing sales update on Friday.

Here Michael Laviisa held its annual general meeting and the figures it release showed it is falling behind market expectations on sales and news store expand. So currently it operates nine hundred and twenty seven stores in forty nine countries and mister Blundy owns forty percent of the shares. Investors were unperturbed and pushed its share price up three percent on Friday, taking the games this year to fifty percent. The company said the trading environment is difficult on the back of high interest rates. The sales growth for the first twenty weeks of this financial year were just one percent, and it opened a disappointing number of stores for them, just twenty seven in the period. Mind you, there were store openings on the Ivory Coasts, the Republic of Congo and Panama.

Stores in the Republic of Congo.

Yeah, imagine navigating that environment. Pretty interesting, gothic.

Yeah, extraordinary, Now this is extraordinary. Australia post ADAM, so I've already got my outraged voice on. Let me try a hill and gel more impartial here. Australia Post ADAM has asked the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission for an increase in the price of postage stamps as the use of snail nail it does continue to decline. Under the proposal, Well, there we go, slip straight back into outrage. Under the proposal, the cost of an ordinary letter, just her humble everyday letter, would from one July next year rise twenty cents from a dollar fifty to a dollar seventy.

Wow.

The prices for letters up to one hundred and twenty five grams so slightly larger, would increase from three dollars to three dollars forty and letters between one hundred and twenty five grams and two hundred and fifty grams would cost five dollars ten up from the current four dollars fifty. You might ask, Adam, why am I so passionate about this?

Why are you Michael?

Because we have kids who have just suddenly decided that they want to have pen pals, and so I had to go and buy a lot of stamps. And these stamps are expensive, you know, like kids, we can't afford to have pen pals right now?

Try email?

Have you thought about email? Invest in a fax machine anyway? Sorry, go on, please Addam?

All right, Michael, And this hits fear and greed too. You know the MEA mugs they cost eleven dollars to send, They take ten dollars to make. It costs more to post the things.

It just shows that there is serious value you tied up in a MEA mug.

Well, indeed, yes, But fortunately Michael, fear and Greed made a strategic decision to buy a whole bunch of mail bags ready for the MEA Mug mail out, So look back to the cost of the normal mail. In response, the A Triple C said it would seek feedback from the community and assess recovery of efficient costs, including a reasonable rate of return, and how the company's common costs are allocated to the relevant letter segments. Australia Post studies showed letter volume had declined seventy two percent from the two thousand and six financial year to this financial year. Ossi Post made a pre tax loss of eighty five sorry of eighty eight point five million last fight actual year, and its letter business is actually losing money, while its parcel business is facing increasing competition from Amazon, Temu and Shine.

Turning to international news, now, Adam, the first political showdown between President elect Donald Trump and his key off cider, the world's richest man, Elon Musk, has been I would say awarded to Donald Trump. I think he's won this one. It's a fascinating story because you kind of get the impression that it will not be the last time that these two go head to head.

I wonder if it lasts all the way up to next year, you know, when they get inaugurated in January, just how long this partnership will last. It'll be a good one watch.

It's great to watch, though, isn't it.

Yeah, So this particular item was over the nomination for Treasury Secretary. Donald Trump wanted to appoint Scott Besant, a hedge fund manager from South Carolina. Musk disagreed, posting on x that the appointment would be business as usual. So betting markets then showed Besson's likelihood of getting the job, and they fell sharply and the Trump team started looking at other candidates, but by the end of the week they were back where they started nominating Scott person. It still needs to be confirmed by the Senate, but it could be a sign of future conflict between Donald Trump and Elon Musk, who's supposed to head up a key department in the new administration focusing on cutting government spending, the Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE with pharmaceutical founder Vivek Ramaswami.

Adam McKinzie is close to paying more than six hundred million US dollars to settle the criminal investigation into its work advising US opioid manufacturers on how to boost sales following claims that fueled the country's addiction crisis.

Yeah, this is an incredibly long and tawdry investigation, Michael. The US Department of Justice has been examining whether McKinsey's work amounted to a criminal conspiracy against the healthcare system and whether it obstructed justice, and this is according to a report in The Financial Times. A settlement could come within weeks and would include a deferred prosecution agreement in which the Department of Justice agrees to drop charges against the firm after a period of time if the conditions are met, along with a settlement of related civil claims. A payment of US six hundred million would dramatically increase the cost to McKinsey of its historic work for opioid manufacturers, including oxyconton maker Perdue Farmer, for whom its consultants promised to turbo charge sales. The firm has paid close to one billion US since twenty twenty one in litigation over its opioid work, and that includes a six hundred and forty million settlement with the fifty US States.

Finally, one quick one to finish off on Adam. Hundreds of workers at the Hennessy Cognac factory in France have walked off the job, staggered off the job.

Maybe they drink responsibly, Michael, it's kognak okay.

Sorry, they've sipped and then strolled off the job protesting plans to move brandy bottling to China.

Yeah, Michael Hennessy, which is owned by French luxury giant LVMH, is looking at the shift after China imposed penalties on European brandy imports. Now that followed the European Union voting to hit Chinese imported electric vehicles with higher tariffs. So France is the home of the luxury spirit that is Konyak and the owner of the region, of course, and together with Martel, Remi, Martin and Corvoisier, they account for most of the world's Konnak brandy producers want President Emmanuel Macron to negotiate a diplomatic solution, and that's according to The New York Times, kgnac's sales have tumbled since COVID nineteen, hurt by falling sales in China and the US. All right, Adam.

Coming up next in the Fear and Greed playlist is Fear and Greed The Weak Ahead, featuring our resident economist Stephen kocoulis plenty to talk about today with Stephen, and following that as the interview that I mentioned earlier, Rachel Conlin from Binance, both of them well worth a listen.

Thank you very much, Adam, Thank you Michael.

It is Monday, the twenty fifth of November twenty twenty four. Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was Beara and Greed. Have a great day.