ASX20 winners and losers, bankruptcy law changes, Network Ten owner sold

Published Jul 8, 2024, 7:30 PM

Tuesday 9 July 2024

The composition of Australia’s top 20 stocks shifts as big winners, and big losers, emerge. 

And more, including:

  • The government outlines changes to personal bankruptcy laws 
  • Federal Coalition pulls ahead of Labor for the first time in NSW
  • And Channel Ten owner, Paramount, set to be sold in a major shake-up to the global media world

Plus don’t miss the latest episode of How Do They Afford That? - a mortgage broker’s advice on preparing for another interest rate rise. Get the episode from APPLE, SPOTIFY, or anywhere you listen to podcasts.

The composition of Australia's top twenty stocks shifts as big winners and big losers emerge. The government outlines changes to personal bankruptcy laws and Channel ten owner Paramount set to be sold in a major shakeup to the global media world. Welcome to Fear and Greedy daily business news for people who make their own decisions. It is Tuesday, the ninth of July twenty twenty four. Are Michael Thompson and Good Morning Sean Aylmer.

Good Morning Michael, Sean the.

Main story this morning. The composition of the top twenty stocks on the ASX is changing fast, with stalwarts like Telster and Woolies and Transurban slipping, while others are including property giant Goodman Group become top ten companies.

The top twenty stocks on the AX let's call them the mega caps, comprise fifty six percent of the market capitalization of the stock exchange in Australia. By reputation, the large caps, the mega caps are solid. Often they pay dividends and you're not supposed to lose your capital. In contrast, the mid caps, let's say you know, twenty to one hundred or so, they're supposed to provide plenty of growth opportunities, while the small caps are more speculative and theoretically you can find a bargain. But over the past twelve months it hasn't played out that way, with some very big moves in the top twenty stocks. While the ASX two hundred is up around eight percent over the past year, Woodside Energy Group is down sixteen percent and no longer a top ten company. Telstra if It's one point three million shareholders has also slipped out of the top ten. It's now the thirteenth largest company on boss, having lost fourteen percent of value over the past year. Woolies and Transerman are the other biggest losers within the top twenty. Others have fallen off the top twenty list Coals, Brambles, res Med, They've all fallen off that list of megacaps. Shareholders in those companies have all lost capital over the past twelve months or so. That's not what you'd necessarily expect from one really big companies.

All right, So there's plenty of big losers there, Sean, What about the best performers, where are shareholders made money?

Ah? Well, a year ago, Goodman Group wasn't even a top twenty stock, but its share price is up seventy eight percent over the past year. It is now the country's tenth largest company. We've talked plenty about the banks. They remain dominant. We've spoken less about Wes Farmers, which of course owns Bunnings and office works, but it also owns a pharmacy business, aim Project, a chemicals and fertilizer business, among plenty of other things. Australia's biggest conglomerate, West Farmers, employees one hundred and twenty thousand people. It's got more than half a million shareholders. The group began life as a Western Australian farmers cooperative back in nineteen fourteen. A few years back, wasn't even a Top twenty stock. After appreciating forty percent over the last year, it is now Australia's eighth largest company. Other newbies to the Top twenty this year a Wise Tech global Aristocrat Leisure, the gaming machine manufacturer, Aria Group, which is a property online property group. The point of this is that over the past year, some of the biggest companies haven't been the steady rocks of the AX and while many mid caps and small caps have struggled, some of the large caps provided the best and worst returns.

All right, let's take a look at yesterday, in particular, how did local markets go.

There's in Pax two hundred closed down nearly one percent to seven seven hundred and sixty three points, with a drop in iron ore futures hitting the big three miners, BHP, Rio and Fortes Q Metals all dropped more than two percent. Energy stocks also underperformed, as did healthcare and real estate investment trusts. Where's Farmers right on Q was the best of the mega caps, rising one point three percent. Sun Corp fell back more than two percent after mcquarry analysts downgraded the group. What's kind of interesting in that it said it's a bit expensive at the moment's valuation is a bit high, but also a Lanina weather pattern and the group's relative low reinsurance cover has worried analysts. In that case, Call Lithium said it mind more of the silvery white metal than expected, and notwithstanding the slump in lithium prices, looks your eyes roll when I say silvery white metal.

It wasn't so much rolling, Shana. It's kind of fluttered a little bit because I have never heard someone use the color of lithium to describe it before. I mean, obviously, when you're talking about gold, it's self explanatory. I have never heard lithium described as the silvery white metal before. It's very very evocative language, very evocative.

And that's how it's always described, its silvery white. I've never seen it in real life, but I'm just assuming it's true.

Googling it now. Yeah, there, you're all right, it is silvery white.

Yeah. Absolutely. Anyway, we have had a slump in lithium prices that core Lithium's results yesterday sin It's shehare price up ten percent. Another really interesting company the moment is GQG Partners, the fund manager. It said funds under management has reached two hundred and thirty billion dollars almost ten billion dollars in u ASTs last quarter. Its share price initially jumped on that, they did finish down more than three percent. The stock itself is up more than seventy percent in twenty twenty four. The share price of IDP Education's worth mentioned as well. Now. IDP, of course, provides international education services. Its share price hit its lowest point in almost four years yesterday, down another one percent. IDP office services in Australia, Canada in the UK. As it turns out, governments in each of those are tightening visa and immigration rules, reducing potential customers for IDP its share price is off twenty eight percent this year, and just very quickly, it's been a bunch of gold miners reporting quarterly production figures. The hard yellowy rock. Go know gold god, isn't it.

That's the opposite of the silvery white metal.

Yeah yeah. Romilias did pretty well. It's share price rose two percent two hundred and ninety three ounce's last financial year. Regis said it mind a little well at the lower end of expectations, four hundred and eighteen ounces for the year, but the All Ordinary Gold Index actually entered higher for the day yesterday. What I always thinks is sort of interesting is that regis four hundred and eighteen ounces for the year. Now we talk about, you know, the amount of gold discovered and mind over history around the world could fit under the Eiffel Tower off Town's big. We get that, but still, I mean, four hundred and eighteen thousand, it's not actually that much. I suppose if you're going four hundred and eighteen thousand times. What twenty three hundred US dollars an ounce? You're kind of ending up with lots and lots of money, no idea what that is? What's aid? I'm not even going to try and do it in my head, Michael. It's much much money, Yeah, much much money. But yeah, sort of four hundred and eighteen ounces. It's not a huge amount for all that effort in that. I suppose it's just worth so much money it's worth mining it.

Hey, Sean, what color is uranium?

Well that's a good question because you always think of it as yellow, but maybe it's.

Not because of yellow cake, don't you. Yeah, well, do you know what color uranium is described as?

What is it?

Silvery white?

There you go? Oh, you wouldn't want to get that mixed up, would you?

Yeah? Yeah, those are the two that you want to keep firmly in separate buckets. I'm assuming if you're mining them together. I just wanted to share that because you've got yellow cake, then you've got silvery white uranium, and then you've got silvery white lithium. I've learnt so much today, Sean.

Now I tell you someone who can tell you more about commodities. Michael is it.

By any it's a man, Yes it is. This is a great interview that you have coming up after the show today. You're speaking with vivec Da who is the Director of Mining an Energy Commodities Research at Commonwealth Bank. He would be the expert in all things lithium and uranium and of course gold.

Yes, he's been on the show a few times now. I love talking to Vivek because he puts things simply enough for me to understand. We talk about why gold is doing so well. We talk about why iron ore prices have come off a bit, though he's still a bit of an optimist on iron ore prices. But the part I really like is when we talk about gas and L and G and how the pricing mechanism for those commodities work, which always confuses me, so Vivek sets me straight. Fantastic interview. Would well recommend this one? Yeah?

And we'll have to get him back again soon to talk about uranium.

Yeah we will, we will.

Indeed, it's a great chat as well worth listening to. It's coming up after the show International Market, Sean, what's going on there?

Well? The big news this week comes tomorrow Australian Time when US Federal Reserve chairs our Own Power to Live as his semi annual Monetary Policy report in front of the US Senate Banking and Housing Committee. Then there's the consumer price for you on Friday, Australian time. The Fed has said it once deceived several months of receding price pressures before at lowers rates. I'm sure the politicians will be asking Jeroam Powell all about that oil prices remain steady even though there are a couple of very different threats to production. At the moment, Brent's training above eighty six YUS dollars a barrel, up about eight percent over the past five or six weeks. But the factors are at the opposite ends of the spectrum. The first factor affecting the price is Hurricane Beryl. Well, it became a storm, but overnight was expected to once again become a hurricane. We've been following this as it went through the Caribbean. It's expected to rapidly strengthen as it nears the Texan coast. With oil companies taking precautions. That has put pressure on oil prices a storm. The second factor is bushfires in Alberta, Canada. Production in the region is being threatened, adding to the pressure on oil prices. So on one hand, at the bottom of North America, the south part of North America, you've got horrendous weather and rain. Towards the north you have bushfires. There you go. In currency markets, the Aussie dollar has appreciated against the greenback. It's buying sixty seven and a half US dollars. Bitcoin and most other cryptos are trending Lara on the back of potential sales of tokens by creditors of the failed mount Gox exchange, the Japanese group. We spoke a bit about that yesterday. It's begun. All the creditors have begun returning about or up to eight billion US dollars worth of bitcoin, certainly putting pressure on the price.

Sean, we got a little bit off track there with uranium and all the silvery white metals. We have a fair bit to get through, so we better take a quick break. We'll come back in a moment with the rest of the day's business news.

Seawan.

The Federal Coalition has pulled a head of labor for the first time in New South Wales and increased its lead in Queensland, though it still lags in Victoria according to state by state newspoll.

In South Australia, the contest has titaned, but the coalition has lost significant ground. In Western Australia, which was the key to Labour's twenty twenty two election victory, an exclusive state by state Newspole demographic analysis shows the political contest tightening over the past three months, with Labour leading the Coalition on a reduced two party preferred vote of fifty one to forty nine percent for the first time. The coalition now enjoys majority support among male voters, with the female vote still marginally favoring Labor. The results confirm a continuation of a trend that, if repeated at an election, would cost Labor its parliamentary majority and force it into a minority government with independence. Based on the results, Labour could stand to lose a couple of seats in New South Wales and potentially one in Queensland.

Shahn, the threshold for involuntary bankruptcy will rise to twenty thousand dollars and bankrupts will have their official records cleared after seven years under an overhaul of personal insolvency laws.

The Albin EASi government will also extend the time frame for responding to a bankruptcy notice from twenty one days to twenty eight days, and will scrap debt agreements as an act of bankruptcy. Under the legislation, the amendments should ensure a fairer outcome for debtors in the personal insolvency system and reduce the stigma currently associated with entering into bankruptcy, according to Attorney General Mark Dreyfuss, who also launched consultations for a mini bankruptcy regime known as the Minimum Asset Procedure that will allow debtors who meet certain criteria to start afresh soon. Under the proposal, people who are less than fifty thousand dollars and have minimal assets to repay debts will be able to apply to participate in the procedure, less restrictive than bankruptcy lasts for just one year. The whole idea is that people, particularly you know, when there's not a huge amount of money, don't get this mark against them for seven years or so.

Okay now, The total value of new housing loans fell by nearly two percent in May, with the biggest fall coming among first home buyers.

While the value is down during the month. Over the past year, new home loan commitments have actually risen by eighteen percent. Now, loans of investors have grown much faster than loans to owner occupies. New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia are leading the way in terms of new loans over the past year. The loans in the Sunshine State actually now exceed Victoria. In fact, the loan size in Queensland on average is about five hundred and eighty thousand dollars Victoria's about five hundred and sixty six thousand dollars. That state, Queensland has certainly grown much much faster than Victoria.

Copper and gold developer Rex Mineral share price jumped sixty percent yesterday after a bid by a group backed by Indonesia's wealthy Slim family.

Now that's what you want to be on, don't you? Sixty percent in a day.

That's not bad? Is It probably doesn't happen that often though. Really.

Rex has entered into a scheme implementation deed with the companies called MAC Metal Australia. It values minor at three hundred and ninety three million dollars. Mac is already a major shareholder in the South Australian miner. The Board of REX supports the bid. It's not quite there yet. We all have to undergo Foreign Investment Review Board and shareholder approval.

Okay, turning to international news. Now, left wing parties in France have topped the second round of polling in the parliamentary election in a shock really that pushes Marine Lapan's right wing populist National Rally into third place.

Pretty remarkable this French President Emmanuel mccron's coalition of centrist parties did better than expected and pretty much it shows that his high risk strategy of calling a snap election to nip the growth of National Rally has worked. But it hasn't really meant success for his own coalition, with the left wing New Popular Front set to win around one hundred and eighty seats in the National Assembly. Now the New Popular Front is a mishmash of politicians. It includes socialist, Communists, Green and the hard left France Unbowed. Macron's coalition will end up with about one hundred and fifty nine seats national rarely one hundred and forty three. It means France will have I reckon the most tongue parliament I've ever seen basically split between three blocks. The coalition of two of the street is very very unlikely because one's extreme right, one's extreme left, and one's in the middle. There's no new election that can be called for twelve months under French parliamentary rules. So I just it would be really interesting to see how you actually govern a country where no one's going to agree with each other.

Yeah, that is very well hung Indeed, you were waiting for that, we weren't you. I'm sorry, I had to. I just stopped yourself. I just notice like I just started to grin halfway.

Through that, and I knew where we were going to.

Ollie, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I shouldn't do this to us. You have so much credibility, and every day you just lose a little bit when you're sitting in the studio with me. Back on track, Sean Indian Prime Minister Narandra Modi will visit Russia this week for the first time in five years, even though Moscow was growing closer to New Delhi's main rival, China.

Mody is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the visit. According to Bloomberg. Senior Indian diplomats do not expect any major announcements, but the visit certainly signals that the two sides remain close. Russia's growing friendship with China, though is a sticking point for the two countries. Relations between India and China have been very poor ever since they board a dispute erupted in twenty twenty, though the two sides have agreed to talks to resolve the disagreement. Moscow will be Modi's first bilateral visit since he won a third term in office last month. His decision to travel to Russia rather than Batan or Maldives or Schlenka, where an elected Indian prime minister tends to go first, is very much a break in convention for Indian leaders.

Finally, Sean Paramount's board I mentioned this at the top of the show, is set to agree to merge with independent studio Skydance, a deal that would shift control of the historic Hollywood group from Shari Redstone's family to billionaire David Ellison.

The deal is set to be signed any time, according to a report in the Financial Times. New York Time is saying the same thing, and I means Skydance will own CBS, MTV, the Paramount Movie Studio, and Network ten in Australia, among others. Any deal would come just weeks after Redstone blocked a deal with Skydance. Now, Skydance is backed by US private equity groups Redbird and KKR. While Redstone owns only ten percent of the stock, she has eighty percent of the voting rights. It hasn't been an easy road to get to hear. During a very chaotic, highly public bidding process involving several rival bids, Paramount's chief executive and four board members left the company disagreeing with Mss Redstone. Assuming the deal is done, it would pretty much close an eighty eight year chapter of her family's involvement in the entertainment business. David Ellison, the guy taking over, is the son of Oracle founder Larry Ellison, which was very handy when he wanted when he wanted to bank all films like Mission Impossible. David Elson was also an actor. Michael, let me tell you the names of a couple of his dramas never really made the big time, but one was called Flyboys. But my favorite hm the chum Scrubber.

What's the chum scrubber about Sean.

I have absolutely no idea and I don't want to know, do you No?

No, And I have never heard of Flyboys neither, But you never know. We could hear about more of these kind of series featuring David Ellison.

Now, yeah, well, and I think he's given up the acting. He's just going to be a manager now.

Ye, fair enough, I suppose it'd be.

I mean, what's really interesting here is what happens to Network ten because it is the third free to wear commercial network here and so just with a power amount want to keep putting money into it or not to be fascinating to watch.

Yeah, it certainly shakes things up just a little bit. Up Next, Sean is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview Vivekta from the Commonwealth Bank. Because your guest today.

Yep, all about what's happening in the gold market, what's happening in iron Ore, and also what's happening in gas. When we say gas, we mean that very broadly. Llenng is as well as East Coast Gas in Australia. A great interview with vivec always put very simply for people like me.

Yeah, it's coming up next to the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com todau, which is also where you can sign up for our free weekly newsletter Out Tomorrow. Comes out about mid morning on Wednesdays, so jump in now, head along to the website, put your email address in and you will get the newsletter when it is released. Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael. It's Tuesday, the ninth of July twenty twenty four. Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that with Fear and Greed. Have a great day.